- Pronouns
- He/Him
I wonder how much CP a mite costs
Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest
- Thread starter eaglejarl
- Start date
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- Tags
- naruto rationalist romance armageddon is looking better and better damn you kishimoto explosions everywhere explosives solve everyone if in doubt surrender to the mercy of zabuza it seemed like a good idea at the time looks like a really bad case of being a jōnin my god. where does the lore end? precommitting is the winning plan screaming in kagome screw the rules i have explosives something bad might still happen sometimes you gotta sociopath stabby zabby subsection c of paragraph 9 should include we can weaponize this so hard
- Pronouns
- He/Him
"Is this a bad time to mention I have MedKnow -6 right now?"
"Blood on your hands is a good indication that you are holding the scalpel from the wrong end, nephew..."
- Location
- Book Fort
- Pronouns
- They/Them
"Hang on... Here, eat this. It'll turn your irises red for a month --unfortunate bloodline interaction --but you'll be healed of your Consequences for the rest of today."
"Uncle Oro... Why does this look like a purple human heart?"
"After today's introductory biosealing lesson, you'll be able to answer that yourself. Now eat up, I don't like wasting time."
Is Jashin Real? Analyzing Chapter 402
- Location
- USA
Is Jashin Real? Analyzing Chapter 402
First, all glory be to Jashin.
Some people have noted that in Chapter 402, Hazou won an improbable number of times in games of chance, suggesting the possibility of supernatural interference. I'm going to analyze the random rolls from that chapter to try to determine the strength of the evidence for Jashin's existence and its favor of Hazou.
Section 1: Statistics
The main game we'll be looking at is Chō-Han. Let's consider the set-up. First, the dice were fair (or at least, Hidan claimed them to be and Hazou, expert gambler, didn't notice anything amiss). Second, the dice weren't rolled by either ninja, but by a civilian proxy (that changed twice as Hidan killed the rollers). Third, the two alternate taking first bet. With all these factors, it seems reasonable to assume that the game should be a fair fifty-fifty, a coin-flip.
So Hazou won an even game two-to-one. What was the actual result?
Section 1.1: Binomial Analysis
Without looking into the specific rolls, we know that before they started playing:
And afterwards:
So Hazou won 20 games and lost 10, exactly two-to-one. How likely is this? We can examine the binomial distribution, which is the distribution of outcomes from fair coins. In particular, we want to know how likely it is that Hazou won 20 or more games. Here's an image of the binomial distribution, with more than 20 heads highlighted in red (praise Jashin).
Binomial sum:
\[
\frac{\sum_{k=20}^{30}\binom{30}{k}}{2^{30}} \approx 0.04937
\]
Section 1.2: Impossible Streaks
Hazou and Hidan alternated betting, here's what they bet (Hazou bet first, so on all the odd tokens). C means a bet of Chō, H means a bet of Han:
Hazou: CHCCCCHCCCCCHCCCHCCCCCCCCCCCCC
Hidan: HCHHHHCHHHHHCHHHCHHHHHHHHHHHHH
This is not super informative on its own, though Hazou notably bet Chō 13 times in a row at the end of the game (and Hidan let him). Why? Lets check who won each round:
Hazou's wins: WWWLLLLWLWLWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLLWL
When we examine it, Hazou won a streak of 12 games in a row (and games 4 and on of that streak were part of his Chō betting streak)! Should we be surprised by this?
Consider the number of ways to flip N coins without seeing a streak of 12. For N < 12, we have the following values:
For an arbitrary N, given all previous values, flipping a coin and adding it to the sequence should double the number of viable sequences. The only way that flipping a coin and adding it to the sequence leads to a streak of 12 heads is if the last 11 added coins were all heads -- so we can assume the last 12 coins were heads and remove from the count the number of valid sequences we had 13 coins ago:
Normalizing this is trivial, which we can use to compute probabilities for each number of flips. Reference: What are the odds of getting heads 7 times in a row in 40 tries of flipping a coin?
Instead calculating the probabilities of streaks of 12, 13, 14, etc... for 30 flips exactly, we can get:
Base cases:
\[
c_0 = 1 \\ c_1 = 2 \\ c_2 = 4 \\ c_3 = 8 \\ c_4 = 16 \\ \cdots \\ c_{10} = 1024 \\ c_{11} = 2048 \\
\]
Recursion:
\[
c_N = 2c_{N-1} - c_{N-13}
\]
Instead calculating the probabilities of streaks of 12, 13, 14, etc... for 30 flips exactly, we can get:
Value:
\[
\sum_{s = 12}^{30} P(\text{streak} = s | 30 \text{flips}) = 0.00244
\]
Section 1.3: Unifying the Factors
However, we've already considered that Hazou won 20 games. Conditioned on the fact that Hazou won at least 20 games out of 30, how likely then is a streak of 12 or more?
Oops! This one was too hard for me to figure out with math, so I copped out and just simulated every possible series of flips that would lead to 20 or more heads. It was only like 53 million possibilities, it took around 10 minutes to run on Python.
Anyway, I'll put some latex here so it looks nice. This is the true probability, every single possibility has been considered:
Anyway, I'll put some latex here so it looks nice. This is the true probability, every single possibility has been considered:
I'm definitely very good at math, yup:
\[
P(\text{streak} \geq 12 | 20 \text{ heads in } 30 \text{ flips}) = 0.03426
\]
Section 2: Discussion
All that was showed here is not conclusive proof of Jashin or of Hazou having Jashin's favor. It merely suggests a supernatural interaction. Could it have been Jashin? Lets consider some points in favor:
- Hidan. His bloodline from Hot Springs doesn't seem to come with any form of immortality or physical resilience, based on the fact that Kotsuzui Kenji went down to a punch just like anyone else. The other Akatsuki members's bullshit seems pretty clear -- bloodlines or unique ninjutsu, yet Hidan's is unexplained. Beyond that, he claims it's Jashin, and does he seem like the type to lie?
- The cult. Hidan commands the attention of many, many acolytes, many of them very powerful in the grand scope of the world. Daizen as a low-chuunin was far more powerful than Hazou, and he didn't even seem like a senior cultist. He misspoke a word, was threatened with death, actually died, and still possessed a wild loyalty to Hidan and Jashin both. Hidan doesn't seem terribly charismatic (except in the absolutely-self-confident-evil way) and clearly doesn't give many perks to cultists, so it seems plausible that Jashin's influence fuels the cults existence.
- Other metaphysical entities. Other beings exist that break the rules of normal reality on some level. The Five are obvious, the Dragons and the Bijuu might also count. The Sage similarly likely had some amount of godlike prior. The prior on Jashin's existence should not be as low as it would be otherwise.
- The dice. Hidan seems to think that luck on the dice legitimately predicts Jashin's favor, and Hazou was ridiculously lucky on the dice. Beyond that, there's a very plausible mechanism for how Jashin would have acted -- in this game of 30, it inserted a series of ~10 wins in a row where Hazou otherwise went 10 and 10.
- Power scope. Most entities we know have clear rules by which they interact with the world. The bijuu are either physical entities, or they interact through their jinchuuriki. The Five speak through the minds of their clans. The Dragons are physical entities with some amount of freaky conceptual presence. A power scope for Jashin has to include both some sort of clearly confined buff for Hidan, as well as an omnipresent ability to manipulate dice rolls for Hazou, who has never bonded Jashin explicitly AFAICT. This seems unlikely.
- Lack of obvious evidence or incentive. Jashin probably can act in ways that aren't manipulating dice rolls, so why appear in this way? Jashin could probably find far more bloodthirsty ninja, why focus on Hazou? These questions don't have satisfactory answers.
- Simplicity prior. Hidan seems pretty nuts, so its easier to attribute Jashin to him being nuts. In general, postulating new classes of entities, especially ones that improbably focus on the main character, should be frowned upon.
It may have started as a way for Eaglejarl to finally have fun at first, but if the unsimulationist things done in those chapters were retconned into the story's continuity, then Hazou may have legitimately won Jashin's favor in that fight. If not, then Jashin may be following Hidan's attention, or perhaps it legitimately likes Hazou's Uplift idea (what for?). Either way, I am now >90% sure of Jashin's existence, and will adjust my opinions accordingly as we see new evidence.
Section 3: Action Points
On the one hand, Jashin really seems to value sacrifice. On the other hand, Hazou isn't going to commit wanton acts of human sacrifice. On the third hand, Jashin favored Hazou in Chapter 402 while he was trying to protect civilians from being sacrificed. On the fourth hand, we have a bunch of human targets who are acceptable to kill. To some extent, these problems can solve each other. I propose the following action points.
At the bare minimum:
- Request Jashin's holy symbol back from Asuma, for if/when Hidan visits again.
- Ask what [Kei/Shikamaru/Ami/Ino/Asuma/Mari/Kagome/Yuno/SSSSS/Orochimaru] knows about Jashin.
- No particular order
- [N.B. Yuno could be a particularly good choice! She knows very unusual Forbidden Lore]
- Request permission to personally execute a captured Rock ninja scheduled for execution.
- Ideally, one responsible for razing and murdering civilian border villages.
- If the environment can be made sufficiently private, verbally declare that the execution is in the name of Jashin. Otherwise, mentally.
- Execute the ninja with bare hands, pay attention to any unusual sensations.
- [N.B. could get placebo effects!]
- [N.B. we could also do this with estate civilians slated for execution, such as the child molester from Chapter 357]
- Request permission to defend border villages.
- Once a Rock ninja that has murdered/otherwise would murder civilians is found, verbally declare that you will sacrifice them to Jashin.
- Murder them before they can murder you.
- If using Dogs/allies, request that they don't take the kill.
Section 4: Extra analyses
It's good practice in statistics to list analyses that you did even if they didn't factor into your final considerations, to ensure that you're not cherry picking results. I did a few analyses on the dice rolls produced by Hazou and Hidan in their game of Chinchiro. Here are the dice rolls, in order:
Hazou: 233554255611456
Hidan: 145456466356146236445356126135446155 // 146224123114266145234155456146256226123566566166245155136246146123266234446 // 134235266344126233245146355456125124225145246125116556346136344156456345224346345346556236125224224166
In Hidan's rolls, the first "//" indicates when Hazou got his 456 and could no longer lose, and the second "//" marks when:
I'll put the actual analyses in the spoiler because I don't think they turned out important, even though there were some statistically significant results. If you want to look into them, feel free to see what I did and use anything I generated here.
In the absence of a better way to analyze the results, I decided to partition results on the dice into high (4, 5, 6) and low (1, 2, 3), then see if either party's rolls were unusually high.
I did the following analyses:
On the whole, it looks like Hazou rolled normally, and Hidan rolled extremely well. This might be evidence of some passive effect of Jashin's influence on Hidan. However, the results are not conclusive enough for me to include them in the main body of the post.
Lastly, consider the outcome probabilities of a single run of Chinchiro:
Outcomes: Probability
1-2-3: 0.055
1-X-X: 0.139
2-X-X: 0.139
3-X-X: 0.139
4-X-X: 0.139
5-X-X: 0.139
6-X-X: 0.139
1-1-1: 0.009
2-2-2: 0.009
3-3-3: 0.009
4-4-4: 0.009
5-5-5: 0.009
6-6-6: 0.009
4-5-6: 0.055
Hazou got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 0
1-X-X: 0
2-X-X: 2
3-X-X: 0
4-X-X: 1
5-X-X: 0
6-X-X: 1
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 1
Nothing unusual, I didn't bother analyzing further.
Hidan got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 2
1-X-X: 5
2-X-X: 5
3-X-X: 3
4-X-X: 6
5-X-X: 3
6-X-X: 6
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 3
Versus the following expected outcomes over the same 27 trials:
1-2-3: 1.5
1-X-X: 3.75
2-X-X: 3.75
3-X-X: 3.75
4-X-X: 3.75
5-X-X: 3.75
6-X-X: 3.75
1-1-1: 0.25
2-2-2: 0.25
3-3-3: 0.25
4-4-4: 0.25
5-5-5: 0.25
6-6-6: 0.25
4-5-6: 1.5
For deltas like so:
1-2-3: +0.5
1-X-X: +1.25
2-X-X: +1.25
3-X-X: -0.75
4-X-X: +2.25
5-X-X: -0.75
6-X-X: +2.25
1-1-1: -0.25
2-2-2: -0.25
3-3-3: -0.25
4-4-4: -0.25
5-5-5: -0.25
6-6-6: -0.25
4-5-6: +1.5
It's hard to draw any conclusions from this.
Finally, a graph of Hidan's overall dice rolls:
I did the following analyses:
- Were Hazou's rolls unusually high?
- p=0.3036
- not statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high until the first "//"?
- p=0.0144
- statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high after the first "//"?
- p=0.0879
- not statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high overall?
- p=0.0140
- statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high after the second "//"?
- p=0.1864
- not statistically significant.
On the whole, it looks like Hazou rolled normally, and Hidan rolled extremely well. This might be evidence of some passive effect of Jashin's influence on Hidan. However, the results are not conclusive enough for me to include them in the main body of the post.
Lastly, consider the outcome probabilities of a single run of Chinchiro:
Outcomes: Probability
1-2-3: 0.055
1-X-X: 0.139
2-X-X: 0.139
3-X-X: 0.139
4-X-X: 0.139
5-X-X: 0.139
6-X-X: 0.139
1-1-1: 0.009
2-2-2: 0.009
3-3-3: 0.009
4-4-4: 0.009
5-5-5: 0.009
6-6-6: 0.009
4-5-6: 0.055
Hazou got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 0
1-X-X: 0
2-X-X: 2
3-X-X: 0
4-X-X: 1
5-X-X: 0
6-X-X: 1
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 1
Nothing unusual, I didn't bother analyzing further.
Hidan got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 2
1-X-X: 5
2-X-X: 5
3-X-X: 3
4-X-X: 6
5-X-X: 3
6-X-X: 6
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 3
Versus the following expected outcomes over the same 27 trials:
1-2-3: 1.5
1-X-X: 3.75
2-X-X: 3.75
3-X-X: 3.75
4-X-X: 3.75
5-X-X: 3.75
6-X-X: 3.75
1-1-1: 0.25
2-2-2: 0.25
3-3-3: 0.25
4-4-4: 0.25
5-5-5: 0.25
6-6-6: 0.25
4-5-6: 1.5
For deltas like so:
1-2-3: +0.5
1-X-X: +1.25
2-X-X: +1.25
3-X-X: -0.75
4-X-X: +2.25
5-X-X: -0.75
6-X-X: +2.25
1-1-1: -0.25
2-2-2: -0.25
3-3-3: -0.25
4-4-4: -0.25
5-5-5: -0.25
6-6-6: -0.25
4-5-6: +1.5
It's hard to draw any conclusions from this.
Finally, a graph of Hidan's overall dice rolls:
Section 5: Conclusions
It seems likely that Hazou's unusual luck at Bakuchioka was not due to chance. Rather it seems to have been due to some sort of supernatural interference, as cheating was implausible. Given the circumstances, it is reasonable to attribute that interference to Jashin acting on Hazou's behalf, through a mechanism that its Great Prophet Hidan expected and recognized. We don't need to take decisive action yet. However, there are a number of things we could do that might help us understand our situation and perhaps earn the favor of our questionable patron, that also carry very little risk. I advocate we do these things sooner than later, as the Rock arc is likely to bring us on a collision course with Hidan.
TL;DR, Jashin probably exists and Hazou probably has Jashin's favor. We should do something about this.
All analyses performed on Chō-Han can be replicated with python scripts -- contact me if you'd like access to them. Furthermore, all probabilities reported on Chō-Han are exact probabilities found mathematically, but to hedge against getting the math wrong, they were all verified with simulations of 1,000,000 runs of Chō-Han, and found to be within experimental error.
Finally, all glory be to Jashin.
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- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Gosh @Paperclipped that was a cool as heck read
Praise Jashin
Praise Jashin
Last edited:
"Define 'human'."
Also, awesome idea. It should make clearing land much easier.
Is Jashin Real? Analyzing Chapter 402First, all glory be to Jashin.
Some people have noted that in Chapter 402, Hazou won an improbable number of times in games of chance, suggesting the possibility of supernatural interference. I'm going to analyze the random rolls from that chapter to try to determine the strength of the evidence for Jashin's existence and its favor of Hazou.
Section 1: Statistics
The main game we'll be looking at is Chō-Han. Let's consider the set-up. First, the dice were fair (or at least, Hidan claimed them to be and Hazou, expert gambler, didn't notice anything amiss). Second, the dice weren't rolled by either ninja, but by a civilian proxy (that changed twice as Hidan killed the rollers). Third, the two alternate taking first bet. With all these factors, it seems reasonable to assume that the game should be a fair fifty-fifty, a coin-flip.
So Hazou won an even game two-to-one. What was the actual result?
Section 1.1: Binomial Analysis
Without looking into the specific rolls, we know that before they started playing:
And afterwards:
So Hazou won 20 games and lost 10, exactly two-to-one. How likely is this? We can examine the binomial distribution, which is the distribution of outcomes from fair coins. In particular, we want to know how likely it is that Hazou won 20 or more games. Here's an image of the binomial distribution, with more than 20 heads highlighted in red (praise Jashin).
Calculating the sum of the tail in red here is trivial:
So, the probability of this series of rolls is about p = 0.049... Let's consult the experts on what that means:Binomial sum:\[ \frac{\sum_{k=20}^{30}\binom{30}{k}}{2^{30}} \approx 0.04937 \]
So, the result is statistically significant. According to normal scientific norms, we can safely say that, most likely, Hazou's unusual luck was not due to random chance. Yet, it's right on the border of significance, so close that it should make us suspicious. Let's see if we can learn more from the exact series of results.
Section 1.2: Impossible Streaks
Hazou and Hidan alternated betting, here's what they bet (Hazou bet first, so on all the odd tokens). C means a bet of Chō, H means a bet of Han:
Hazou: CHCCCCHCCCCCHCCCHCCCCCCCCCCCCC
Hidan: HCHHHHCHHHHHCHHHCHHHHHHHHHHHHH
This is not super informative on its own, though Hazou notably bet Chō 13 times in a row at the end of the game (and Hidan let him). Why? Lets check who won each round:
Hazou's wins: WWWLLLLWLWLWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLLWL
When we examine it, Hazou won a streak of 12 games in a row (and games 4 and on of that streak were part of his Chō betting streak)! Should we be surprised by this?
Lets plot these probabilities. Streaks of 12 or greater are highlighted in red (praise Jashin).Consider the number of ways to flip N coins without seeing a streak of 12. For N < 12, we have the following values:
For an arbitrary N, given all previous values, flipping a coin and adding it to the sequence should double the number of viable sequences. The only way that flipping a coin and adding it to the sequence leads to a streak of 12 heads is if the last 11 added coins were all heads -- so we can assume the last 12 coins were heads and remove from the count the number of valid sequences we had 13 coins ago:Base cases:\[ c_0 = 1 \\ c_1 = 2 \\ c_2 = 4 \\ c_3 = 8 \\ c_4 = 16 \\ \cdots \\ c_{10} = 1024 \\ c_{11} = 2048 \\ \]
Normalizing this is trivial, which we can use to compute probabilities for each number of flips. Reference: What are the odds of getting heads 7 times in a row in 40 tries of flipping a coin?Recursion:\[ c_N = 2c_{N-1} - c_{N-13} \]
Instead calculating the probabilities of streaks of 12, 13, 14, etc... for 30 flips exactly, we can get:
Value:\[ \sum_{s = 12}^{30} P(\text{streak} = s | 30 \text{flips}) = 0.00244 \]
The chance of getting 12 wins in a row in 30 even games is a minuscule p = 0.002: less than 1 percent. This is extremely significant. With this information, I feel very comfortable claiming that there was some sort of supernatural interference in Hazou's game with Hidan.
Section 1.3: Unifying the Factors
However, we've already considered that Hazou won 20 games. Conditioned on the fact that Hazou won at least 20 games out of 30, how likely then is a streak of 12 or more?
And of course, a plot. Again, streaks of 12 or greater are highlighted in red (praise Jashin).Oops! This one was too hard for me to figure out with math, so I copped out and just simulated every possible series of flips that would lead to 20 or more heads. It was only like 53 million possibilities, it took around 10 minutes to run on Python.
Anyway, I'll put some latex here so it looks nice. This is the true probability, every single possibility has been considered:
I'm definitely very good at math, yup'm definitely very good at math, yup:\[ P(\text{streak} \geq 12 | 20 \text{ heads in } 30 \text{ flips}) = 0.03426 \]
Summing the probabilities on this tail, we get p = 0.034. This is still statistically significant! Even if Hazou flipped 20 heads by random chance, we wouldn't expect there to be such a streak like we saw due to random chance. At this point, I feel very comfortable saying that there was supernatural inferference in Hazou's game of chance with Hidan.
Section 2: Discussion
All that was showed here is not conclusive proof of Jashin or of Hazou having Jashin's favor. It merely suggests a supernatural interaction. Could it have been Jashin? Lets consider some points in favor:
In the interest of good argumentation, lets consider some points against:
- Hidan. His bloodline from Hot Springs doesn't seem to come with any form of immortality or physical resilience, based on the fact that Kotsuzui Kenji went down to a punch just like anyone else. The other Akatsuki members's bullshit seems pretty clear -- bloodlines or unique ninjutsu, yet Hidan's is unexplained. Beyond that, he claims it's Jashin, and does he seem like the type to lie?
- The cult. Hidan commands the attention of many, many acolytes, many of them very powerful in the grand scope of the world. Daizen as a low-chuunin was far more powerful than Hazou, and he didn't even seem like a senior cultist. He misspoke a word, was threatened with death, actually died, and still possessed a wild loyalty to Hidan and Jashin both. Hidan doesn't seem terribly charismatic (except in the absolutely-self-confident-evil way) and clearly doesn't give many perks to cultists, so it seems plausible that Jashin's influence fuels the cults existence.
- Other metaphysical entities. Other beings exist that break the rules of normal reality on some level. The Five are obvious, the Dragons and the Bijuu might also count. The Sage similarly likely had some amount of godlike prior. The prior on Jashin's existence should not be as low as it would be otherwise.
- The dice. Hidan seems to think that luck on the dice legitimately predicts Jashin's favor, and Hazou was ridiculously lucky on the dice. Beyond that, there's a very plausible mechanism for how Jashin would have acted -- in this game of 30, it inserted a series of ~10 wins in a row where Hazou otherwise went 10 and 10.
Yet, when I weigh the evidence in my mind, I find myself believing in Jashin (praise Jashin), and believing that Hazou has legitimately won Jashin's favor in a way that lets him continually survive Hidan's attention.
- Power scope. Most entities we know have clear rules by which they interact with the world. The bijuu are either physical entities, or they interact through their jinchuuriki. The Five speak through the minds of their clans. The Dragons are physical entities with some amount of freaky conceptual presence. A power scope for Jashin has to include both some sort of clearly confined buff for Hidan, as well as an omnipresent ability to manipulate dice rolls for Hazou, who has never bonded Jashin explicitly AFAICT. This seems unlikely.
- Lack of obvious evidence or incentive. Jashin probably can act in ways that aren't manipulating dice rolls, so why appear in this way? Jashin could probably find far more bloodthirsty ninja, why focus on Hazou? These questions don't have satisfactory answers.
- Simplicity prior. Hidan seems pretty nuts, so its easier to attribute Jashin to him being nuts. In general, postulating new classes of entities, especially ones that improbably focus on the main character, should be frowned upon.
It may have started as a way for Eaglejarl to finally have fun at first, but if the unsimulationist things done in those chapters were retconned into the story's continuity, then Hazou may have legitimately won Jashin's favor in that fight. If not, then Jashin may be following Hidan's attention, or perhaps it legitimately likes Hazou's Uplift idea (what for?). Either way, I am now >90% sure of Jashin's existence, and will adjust my opinions accordingly as we see new evidence.
Section 3: Action Points
On the one hand, Jashin really seems to value sacrifice. On the other hand, Hazou isn't going to commit wanton acts of human sacrifice. On the third hand, Jashin favored Hazou in Chapter 402 while he was trying to protect civilians from being sacrificed. On the fourth hand, we have a bunch of human targets who are acceptable to kill. To some extent, these problems can solve each other. I propose the following action points.
At the bare minimum:
Tough to finagle, maybe worthwhile:
- Request Jashin's holy symbol back from Asuma, for if/when Hidan visits again.
Easy to do, but with reputational/political risks:
- Ask what [Kei/Shikamaru/Ami/Ino/Asuma/Mari/Kagome/Yuno/SSSSS/Orochimaru] knows about Jashin.
- No particular order
- [N.B. Yuno could be a particularly good choice! She knows very unusual Forbidden Lore]
Harder to do, should probably wait till we're uninjured:
- Request permission to personally execute a captured Rock ninja scheduled for execution.
- Ideally, one responsible for razing and murdering civilian border villages.
- If the environment can be made sufficiently private, verbally declare that the execution is in the name of Jashin. Otherwise, mentally.
- Execute the ninja with bare hands, pay attention to any unusual sensations.
- [N.B. could get placebo effects!]
- [N.B. we could also do this with estate civilians slated for execution, such as the child molester from Chapter 357]
- Request permission to defend border villages.
- Once a Rock ninja that has murdered/otherwise would murder civilians is found, verbally declare that you will sacrifice them to Jashin.
- Murder them before they can murder you.
- If using Dogs/allies, request that they don't take the kill.
Section 4: Extra analyses
It's good practice in statistics to list analyses that you did even if they didn't factor into your final considerations, to ensure that you're not cherry picking results. I did a few analyses on the dice rolls produced by Hazou and Hidan in their game of Chinchiro. Here are the dice rolls, in order:
Hazou: 233554255611456
Hidan: 145456466356146236445356126135446155 // 146224123114266145234155456146256226123566566166245155136246146123266234446 // 134235266344126233245146355456125124225145246125116556346136344156456345224346345346556236125224224166
In Hidan's rolls, the first "//" indicates when Hazou got his 456 and could no longer lose, and the second "//" marks when:
I'll put the actual analyses in the spoiler because I don't think they turned out important, even though there were some statistically significant results. If you want to look into them, feel free to see what I did and use anything I generated here.
In the absence of a better way to analyze the results, I decided to partition results on the dice into high (4, 5, 6) and low (1, 2, 3), then see if either party's rolls were unusually high.
I did the following analyses:
- Were Hazou's rolls unusually high?
- p=0.3036
- not statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high until the first "//"?
- p=0.0144
- statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high after the first "//"?
- p=0.0879
- not statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high overall?
- p=0.0140
- statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high after the second "//"?
- p=0.1864
- not statistically significant.
On the whole, it looks like Hazou rolled normally, and Hidan rolled extremely well. This might be evidence of some passive effect of Jashin's influence on Hidan. However, the results are not conclusive enough for me to include them in the main body of the post.
Lastly, consider the outcome probabilities of a single run of Chinchiro:
Outcomes: Probability
1-2-3: 0.055
1-X-X: 0.139
2-X-X: 0.139
3-X-X: 0.139
4-X-X: 0.139
5-X-X: 0.139
6-X-X: 0.139
1-1-1: 0.009
2-2-2: 0.009
3-3-3: 0.009
4-4-4: 0.009
5-5-5: 0.009
6-6-6: 0.009
4-5-6: 0.055
Hazou got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 0
1-X-X: 0
2-X-X: 2
3-X-X: 0
4-X-X: 1
5-X-X: 0
6-X-X: 1
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 1
Nothing unusual, I didn't bother analyzing further.
Hidan got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 2
1-X-X: 5
2-X-X: 5
3-X-X: 3
4-X-X: 6
5-X-X: 3
6-X-X: 6
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 3
Versus the following expected outcomes over the same 27 trials:
1-2-3: 1.5
1-X-X: 3.75
2-X-X: 3.75
3-X-X: 3.75
4-X-X: 3.75
5-X-X: 3.75
6-X-X: 3.75
1-1-1: 0.25
2-2-2: 0.25
3-3-3: 0.25
4-4-4: 0.25
5-5-5: 0.25
6-6-6: 0.25
4-5-6: 1.5
For deltas like so:
1-2-3: +0.5
1-X-X: +1.25
2-X-X: +1.25
3-X-X: -0.75
4-X-X: +2.25
5-X-X: -0.75
6-X-X: +2.25
1-1-1: -0.25
2-2-2: -0.25
3-3-3: -0.25
4-4-4: -0.25
5-5-5: -0.25
6-6-6: -0.25
4-5-6: +1.5
It's hard to draw any conclusions from this.
Finally, a graph of Hidan's overall dice rolls:
Section 5: Conclusions
It seems likely that Hazou's unusual luck at Bakuchioka was not due to chance. Rather it seems to have been due to some sort of supernatural interference, as cheating was implausible. Given the circumstances, it is reasonable to attribute that interference to Jashin acting on Hazou's behalf, through a mechanism that its Great Prophet Hidan expected and recognized. We don't need to take decisive action yet. However, there are a number of things we could do that might help us understand our situation and perhaps earn the favor of our questionable patron, that also carry very little risk. I advocate we do these things sooner than later, as the Rock arc is likely to bring us on a collision course with Hidan.
TL;DR, Jashin probably exists and Hazou probably has Jashin's favor. We should do something about this.
All analyses performed on Chō-Han can be replicated with python scripts -- contact me if you'd like access to them. Furthermore, all probabilities reported on Chō-Han are exact probabilities found mathematically, but to hedge against getting the math wrong, they were all verified with simulations of 1,000,000 runs of Chō-Han, and found to be within experimental error.
Finally, all glory be to Jashin.
Fantastic work, but I note that you seem to have neglected the possibility that Hidan weighted the dice to favor Hazou. For some reason.
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
- Location
- USA
- While playing Chinchiro, the dice looked ~fair.
- Hazou was the last to handle the dice as he passed them to the civilian roller.
- In Chō-Han, the two sides of the bet are even and odd, not high and low. The dice would have to be weighted strangely to make one more common than the other, surely.
- Hazou won bets on a mix of Chō and Han, choosing both first and second.
- It seems very out-of-character for Hidan to first weight the dice in a pattern that Hazou can pick up, then even on his turns willingly choose the losing side so that Hazou can win.
Yeah, S-Class shaved dice wielded against Kazuku couldn't have escaped the notice of kid.
I'm only going to address the last point. Hidan is weird. He seems to genuinely like Hazou and have been sincerely offended at the lack of follow up contact.
I'm only going to address the last point. Hidan is weird. He seems to genuinely like Hazou and have been sincerely offended at the lack of follow up contact.
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- Location
- Europe
Well Hazou did cause a lot of death and destruction just a few days ago, while also helping people to stay alive so they can make more sacrifices babies.
Sounds legit to me.
Praise Jashin.
Sounds legit to me.
Praise Jashin.
Noburi doesn't go in person? I don't think I get your point. He wasn't at the last attack and without a second Wakahisa he can't be. None of the fleeing Rock ninja knows which Leaf-nin were present. Besides recognizing the Snake and Pangolin Summoners of course, I don't think the Porcupine, Condor, and Turtle Summoners are public knowledge yet.
I don't think I understand how getting an Aburame ninja to drain summons is going to help any of your objections either.
Jiraiya was so sure draining summons was lethal for Wakahisa and Aburame that he willing to break opsec on Sage Mode. He was the expert on nature chakra, the 10% is just on the off chance he was wrong. I don't think it's likely.
There's no reason that anyone who doesn't have Sage Mode would know anything about using nature chakra. None of those people are likely to have Sage Mode (Asuma maybe)
- Location
- The state of Paranoia
My read was that Jiraiya was mainly worried about the Wakahisa, since if summons are made of nature chakra a Wakahisa draining them would 100% die, since they have 1 CP and the chakra would have to go through their body. That alone was enough to break opsec. He probably just mentioned the Aburame since they're also able to drain and if they had drained a summon people would have immediately had more information about nature chakra as they would have seen a bunch of stone insects.
- Location
- USA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
What do hedges have to do with this?
For the record, I have a writeup of Sage Mode burning a hole in my pocket. Can't wait for y'all to either learn it or see someone use it. Ditto for another major power up the nature of which I will not disclose but I note that it is within your grasp given appropriate effort
- Location
- Yes.
I mean he was thinking it in his internal monologue, it sure feels like it'd do something.
- Location
- The Soviet Republic of Canuckistan
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Yuno's birthday idea:
Point one: we know that Yuno had a pretty bad childhood. She probably didn't get tojoin in any reindeer games do a lot of things that kids normally do. Even in the EN, even if you have a chakra network, I'm going to guess that kids play tag and fingerpaint and make puppets out of old socks. The extent to which this is true probably varies significantly from village to village, but I think it's a safe enough to say that most children have memories of having fun and that Yuno probably had fewer opportunities than most to engage in these activities.
Point two: Yuno has talked a lot about the world being colourless. I think that the idea of things which give life 'colour' is one which most people can get behind. I'd imagine that most people would be able to identify at least a handful of things that give their life colour, or did, at some point.
Point three: experiences make excellent gifts. I like stuff as much as the next person, but especially if (for example) I didn't feel strong connections to other people and didn't know how to reach out to them, I'd probably appreciate people offering to spend time with me in a structured way.
Point four: to stretch a metaphor a little, just handing someone paints and telling them to get to work might be something that works for some people, but I'm not sure it'd work for Yuno. I can see her getting frustrated and discouraged.
Point five: one of my partners had a very bad childhood. We've made a (long) list of 'traditional' childhood activities that she didn't get to do, and we're now going through them. It's wonderful for everyone involved - she's now eaten s'mores, we've made blanket forts, and a baking soda and vinegar volcano is on the list. We saw a bumper sticker that resonated - "it's never too late to have a good childhood".
I think that each character should share something from their life, ideally a childhood activity, that gives their life colour with Yuno. I think that they should, as well as giving her something, make time to explore that thing with Yuno. I further think that this can chain neatly into the friendship bracelet idea. Hazo shared music with his father. He offers to teach Yuno the flute/recorder/just play music/jam with her. (Did everyone else get to play the glockenspiel in school as a kid? Very badly and very enthusiastically?) He's very explicit that he just wants to have fun with her and share some experiences that were deeply meaningful to him - he doesn't need or want her to be good at it, he wants to make space for her to have unselfconscious fun, and he wants to get to participate in that joy. He then gives her a charm and refuses to explain what it is.
Every other character then goes. They relate something from their own childhood (or life) that was a precious experience and a source of colour in their lives. Kei probably did a lot of reading - sharing those books with her and offering to read them with her and talk about them, or maybe read them to her, might be cool, and a book as a charm makes sense. Kagome's childhood was mumble but he can carve her something, and offer to show her how to carve, maybe get her some tools. (Who knows? Maybe he'll open up a little.) A little carved charm is a fun project and neat. Mari was busy a lot as a kid but if she doesn't have fond memories of doing things with her mother I'll eat a (small) hat. I don't know what Akane's childhood looked like, but there are definitely things kids do for fun in Leaf and she can probably take Yuno on a tour. (Maybe the best fast food places?)
And then at the end, Noburi shares something from his childhood, gives her a representative gift, gives her his charm, and then gives her the bracelet.
And then they go enjoy whatever the Leaf equivalent of a bouncy castle is. Maybe Hazo summons a bunch of Puppies?
The point is, I think that giving Yuno the gift of colour and childhood would be heartwarming, present great opportunities for characterization, and that it would be extremely, extremely meaningful to her...especially if it came with the explicit request for her to share parts of her childhood with the rest of the family.
Point one: we know that Yuno had a pretty bad childhood. She probably didn't get to
Point two: Yuno has talked a lot about the world being colourless. I think that the idea of things which give life 'colour' is one which most people can get behind. I'd imagine that most people would be able to identify at least a handful of things that give their life colour, or did, at some point.
Point three: experiences make excellent gifts. I like stuff as much as the next person, but especially if (for example) I didn't feel strong connections to other people and didn't know how to reach out to them, I'd probably appreciate people offering to spend time with me in a structured way.
Point four: to stretch a metaphor a little, just handing someone paints and telling them to get to work might be something that works for some people, but I'm not sure it'd work for Yuno. I can see her getting frustrated and discouraged.
Point five: one of my partners had a very bad childhood. We've made a (long) list of 'traditional' childhood activities that she didn't get to do, and we're now going through them. It's wonderful for everyone involved - she's now eaten s'mores, we've made blanket forts, and a baking soda and vinegar volcano is on the list. We saw a bumper sticker that resonated - "it's never too late to have a good childhood".
I think that each character should share something from their life, ideally a childhood activity, that gives their life colour with Yuno. I think that they should, as well as giving her something, make time to explore that thing with Yuno. I further think that this can chain neatly into the friendship bracelet idea. Hazo shared music with his father. He offers to teach Yuno the flute/recorder/just play music/jam with her. (Did everyone else get to play the glockenspiel in school as a kid? Very badly and very enthusiastically?) He's very explicit that he just wants to have fun with her and share some experiences that were deeply meaningful to him - he doesn't need or want her to be good at it, he wants to make space for her to have unselfconscious fun, and he wants to get to participate in that joy. He then gives her a charm and refuses to explain what it is.
Every other character then goes. They relate something from their own childhood (or life) that was a precious experience and a source of colour in their lives. Kei probably did a lot of reading - sharing those books with her and offering to read them with her and talk about them, or maybe read them to her, might be cool, and a book as a charm makes sense. Kagome's childhood was mumble but he can carve her something, and offer to show her how to carve, maybe get her some tools. (Who knows? Maybe he'll open up a little.) A little carved charm is a fun project and neat. Mari was busy a lot as a kid but if she doesn't have fond memories of doing things with her mother I'll eat a (small) hat. I don't know what Akane's childhood looked like, but there are definitely things kids do for fun in Leaf and she can probably take Yuno on a tour. (Maybe the best fast food places?)
And then at the end, Noburi shares something from his childhood, gives her a representative gift, gives her his charm, and then gives her the bracelet.
And then they go enjoy whatever the Leaf equivalent of a bouncy castle is. Maybe Hazo summons a bunch of Puppies?
The point is, I think that giving Yuno the gift of colour and childhood would be heartwarming, present great opportunities for characterization, and that it would be extremely, extremely meaningful to her...especially if it came with the explicit request for her to share parts of her childhood with the rest of the family.
- Location
- UK
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have the best players.Is Jashin Real? Analyzing Chapter 402First, all glory be to Jashin.
Some people have noted that in Chapter 402, Hazou won an improbable number of times in games of chance, suggesting the possibility of supernatural interference. I'm going to analyze the random rolls from that chapter to try to determine the strength of the evidence for Jashin's existence and its favor of Hazou.
Section 1: Statistics
The main game we'll be looking at is Chō-Han. Let's consider the set-up. First, the dice were fair (or at least, Hidan claimed them to be and Hazou, expert gambler, didn't notice anything amiss). Second, the dice weren't rolled by either ninja, but by a civilian proxy (that changed twice as Hidan killed the rollers). Third, the two alternate taking first bet. With all these factors, it seems reasonable to assume that the game should be a fair fifty-fifty, a coin-flip.
So Hazou won an even game two-to-one. What was the actual result?
Section 1.1: Binomial Analysis
Without looking into the specific rolls, we know that before they started playing:
And afterwards:
So Hazou won 20 games and lost 10, exactly two-to-one. How likely is this? We can examine the binomial distribution, which is the distribution of outcomes from fair coins. In particular, we want to know how likely it is that Hazou won 20 or more games. Here's an image of the binomial distribution, with more than 20 heads highlighted in red (praise Jashin).
Calculating the sum of the tail in red here is trivial:
So, the probability of this series of rolls is about p = 0.049... Let's consult the experts on what that means:Binomial sum:\[ \frac{\sum_{k=20}^{30}\binom{30}{k}}{2^{30}} \approx 0.04937 \]
So, the result is statistically significant. According to normal scientific norms, we can safely say that, most likely, Hazou's unusual luck was not due to random chance. Yet, it's right on the border of significance, so close that it should make us suspicious. Let's see if we can learn more from the exact series of results.
Section 1.2: Impossible Streaks
Hazou and Hidan alternated betting, here's what they bet (Hazou bet first, so on all the odd tokens). C means a bet of Chō, H means a bet of Han:
Hazou: CHCCCCHCCCCCHCCCHCCCCCCCCCCCCC
Hidan: HCHHHHCHHHHHCHHHCHHHHHHHHHHHHH
This is not super informative on its own, though Hazou notably bet Chō 13 times in a row at the end of the game (and Hidan let him). Why? Lets check who won each round:
Hazou's wins: WWWLLLLWLWLWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLLWL
When we examine it, Hazou won a streak of 12 games in a row (and games 4 and on of that streak were part of his Chō betting streak)! Should we be surprised by this?
Lets plot these probabilities. Streaks of 12 or greater are highlighted in red (praise Jashin).Consider the number of ways to flip N coins without seeing a streak of 12. For N < 12, we have the following values:
For an arbitrary N, given all previous values, flipping a coin and adding it to the sequence should double the number of viable sequences. The only way that flipping a coin and adding it to the sequence leads to a streak of 12 heads is if the last 11 added coins were all heads -- so we can assume the last 12 coins were heads and remove from the count the number of valid sequences we had 13 coins ago:Base cases:\[ c_0 = 1 \\ c_1 = 2 \\ c_2 = 4 \\ c_3 = 8 \\ c_4 = 16 \\ \cdots \\ c_{10} = 1024 \\ c_{11} = 2048 \\ \]
Normalizing this is trivial, which we can use to compute probabilities for each number of flips. Reference: What are the odds of getting heads 7 times in a row in 40 tries of flipping a coin?Recursion:\[ c_N = 2c_{N-1} - c_{N-13} \]
Instead calculating the probabilities of streaks of 12, 13, 14, etc... for 30 flips exactly, we can get:
Value:\[ \sum_{s = 12}^{30} P(\text{streak} = s | 30 \text{flips}) = 0.00244 \]
The chance of getting 12 wins in a row in 30 even games is a minuscule p = 0.002: less than 1 percent. This is extremely significant. With this information, I feel very comfortable claiming that there was some sort of supernatural interference in Hazou's game with Hidan.
Section 1.3: Unifying the Factors
However, we've already considered that Hazou won 20 games. Conditioned on the fact that Hazou won at least 20 games out of 30, how likely then is a streak of 12 or more?
And of course, a plot. Again, streaks of 12 or greater are highlighted in red (praise Jashin).Oops! This one was too hard for me to figure out with math, so I copped out and just simulated every possible series of flips that would lead to 20 or more heads. It was only like 53 million possibilities, it took around 10 minutes to run on Python.
Anyway, I'll put some latex here so it looks nice. This is the true probability, every single possibility has been considered:
I'm definitely very good at math, yup'm definitely very good at math, yup:\[ P(\text{streak} \geq 12 | 20 \text{ heads in } 30 \text{ flips}) = 0.03426 \]
Summing the probabilities on this tail, we get p = 0.034. This is still statistically significant! Even if Hazou flipped 20 heads by random chance, we wouldn't expect there to be such a streak like we saw due to random chance. At this point, I feel very comfortable saying that there was supernatural inferference in Hazou's game of chance with Hidan.
Section 2: Discussion
All that was showed here is not conclusive proof of Jashin or of Hazou having Jashin's favor. It merely suggests a supernatural interaction. Could it have been Jashin? Lets consider some points in favor:
In the interest of good argumentation, lets consider some points against:
- Hidan. His bloodline from Hot Springs doesn't seem to come with any form of immortality or physical resilience, based on the fact that Kotsuzui Kenji went down to a punch just like anyone else. The other Akatsuki members's bullshit seems pretty clear -- bloodlines or unique ninjutsu, yet Hidan's is unexplained. Beyond that, he claims it's Jashin, and does he seem like the type to lie?
- The cult. Hidan commands the attention of many, many acolytes, many of them very powerful in the grand scope of the world. Daizen as a low-chuunin was far more powerful than Hazou, and he didn't even seem like a senior cultist. He misspoke a word, was threatened with death, actually died, and still possessed a wild loyalty to Hidan and Jashin both. Hidan doesn't seem terribly charismatic (except in the absolutely-self-confident-evil way) and clearly doesn't give many perks to cultists, so it seems plausible that Jashin's influence fuels the cults existence.
- Other metaphysical entities. Other beings exist that break the rules of normal reality on some level. The Five are obvious, the Dragons and the Bijuu might also count. The Sage similarly likely had some amount of godlike prior. The prior on Jashin's existence should not be as low as it would be otherwise.
- The dice. Hidan seems to think that luck on the dice legitimately predicts Jashin's favor, and Hazou was ridiculously lucky on the dice. Beyond that, there's a very plausible mechanism for how Jashin would have acted -- in this game of 30, it inserted a series of ~10 wins in a row where Hazou otherwise went 10 and 10.
Yet, when I weigh the evidence in my mind, I find myself believing in Jashin (praise Jashin), and believing that Hazou has legitimately won Jashin's favor in a way that lets him continually survive Hidan's attention.
- Power scope. Most entities we know have clear rules by which they interact with the world. The bijuu are either physical entities, or they interact through their jinchuuriki. The Five speak through the minds of their clans. The Dragons are physical entities with some amount of freaky conceptual presence. A power scope for Jashin has to include both some sort of clearly confined buff for Hidan, as well as an omnipresent ability to manipulate dice rolls for Hazou, who has never bonded Jashin explicitly AFAICT. This seems unlikely.
- Lack of obvious evidence or incentive. Jashin probably can act in ways that aren't manipulating dice rolls, so why appear in this way? Jashin could probably find far more bloodthirsty ninja, why focus on Hazou? These questions don't have satisfactory answers.
- Simplicity prior. Hidan seems pretty nuts, so its easier to attribute Jashin to him being nuts. In general, postulating new classes of entities, especially ones that improbably focus on the main character, should be frowned upon.
It may have started as a way for Eaglejarl to finally have fun at first, but if the unsimulationist things done in those chapters were retconned into the story's continuity, then Hazou may have legitimately won Jashin's favor in that fight. If not, then Jashin may be following Hidan's attention, or perhaps it legitimately likes Hazou's Uplift idea (what for?). Either way, I am now >90% sure of Jashin's existence, and will adjust my opinions accordingly as we see new evidence.
Section 3: Action Points
On the one hand, Jashin really seems to value sacrifice. On the other hand, Hazou isn't going to commit wanton acts of human sacrifice. On the third hand, Jashin favored Hazou in Chapter 402 while he was trying to protect civilians from being sacrificed. On the fourth hand, we have a bunch of human targets who are acceptable to kill. To some extent, these problems can solve each other. I propose the following action points.
At the bare minimum:
Tough to finagle, maybe worthwhile:
- Request Jashin's holy symbol back from Asuma, for if/when Hidan visits again.
Easy to do, but with reputational/political risks:
- Ask what [Kei/Shikamaru/Ami/Ino/Asuma/Mari/Kagome/Yuno/SSSSS/Orochimaru] knows about Jashin.
- No particular order
- [N.B. Yuno could be a particularly good choice! She knows very unusual Forbidden Lore]
Harder to do, should probably wait till we're uninjured:
- Request permission to personally execute a captured Rock ninja scheduled for execution.
- Ideally, one responsible for razing and murdering civilian border villages.
- If the environment can be made sufficiently private, verbally declare that the execution is in the name of Jashin. Otherwise, mentally.
- Execute the ninja with bare hands, pay attention to any unusual sensations.
- [N.B. could get placebo effects!]
- [N.B. we could also do this with estate civilians slated for execution, such as the child molester from Chapter 357]
- Request permission to defend border villages.
- Once a Rock ninja that has murdered/otherwise would murder civilians is found, verbally declare that you will sacrifice them to Jashin.
- Murder them before they can murder you.
- If using Dogs/allies, request that they don't take the kill.
Section 4: Extra analyses
It's good practice in statistics to list analyses that you did even if they didn't factor into your final considerations, to ensure that you're not cherry picking results. I did a few analyses on the dice rolls produced by Hazou and Hidan in their game of Chinchiro. Here are the dice rolls, in order:
Hazou: 233554255611456
Hidan: 145456466356146236445356126135446155 // 146224123114266145234155456146256226123566566166245155136246146123266234446 // 134235266344126233245146355456125124225145246125116556346136344156456345224346345346556236125224224166
In Hidan's rolls, the first "//" indicates when Hazou got his 456 and could no longer lose, and the second "//" marks when:
I'll put the actual analyses in the spoiler because I don't think they turned out important, even though there were some statistically significant results. If you want to look into them, feel free to see what I did and use anything I generated here.
In the absence of a better way to analyze the results, I decided to partition results on the dice into high (4, 5, 6) and low (1, 2, 3), then see if either party's rolls were unusually high.
I did the following analyses:
- Were Hazou's rolls unusually high?
- p=0.3036
- not statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high until the first "//"?
- p=0.0144
- statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high after the first "//"?
- p=0.0879
- not statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high overall?
- p=0.0140
- statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high after the second "//"?
- p=0.1864
- not statistically significant.
On the whole, it looks like Hazou rolled normally, and Hidan rolled extremely well. This might be evidence of some passive effect of Jashin's influence on Hidan. However, the results are not conclusive enough for me to include them in the main body of the post.
Lastly, consider the outcome probabilities of a single run of Chinchiro:
Outcomes: Probability
1-2-3: 0.055
1-X-X: 0.139
2-X-X: 0.139
3-X-X: 0.139
4-X-X: 0.139
5-X-X: 0.139
6-X-X: 0.139
1-1-1: 0.009
2-2-2: 0.009
3-3-3: 0.009
4-4-4: 0.009
5-5-5: 0.009
6-6-6: 0.009
4-5-6: 0.055
Hazou got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 0
1-X-X: 0
2-X-X: 2
3-X-X: 0
4-X-X: 1
5-X-X: 0
6-X-X: 1
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 1
Nothing unusual, I didn't bother analyzing further.
Hidan got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 2
1-X-X: 5
2-X-X: 5
3-X-X: 3
4-X-X: 6
5-X-X: 3
6-X-X: 6
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 3
Versus the following expected outcomes over the same 27 trials:
1-2-3: 1.5
1-X-X: 3.75
2-X-X: 3.75
3-X-X: 3.75
4-X-X: 3.75
5-X-X: 3.75
6-X-X: 3.75
1-1-1: 0.25
2-2-2: 0.25
3-3-3: 0.25
4-4-4: 0.25
5-5-5: 0.25
6-6-6: 0.25
4-5-6: 1.5
For deltas like so:
1-2-3: +0.5
1-X-X: +1.25
2-X-X: +1.25
3-X-X: -0.75
4-X-X: +2.25
5-X-X: -0.75
6-X-X: +2.25
1-1-1: -0.25
2-2-2: -0.25
3-3-3: -0.25
4-4-4: -0.25
5-5-5: -0.25
6-6-6: -0.25
4-5-6: +1.5
It's hard to draw any conclusions from this.
Finally, a graph of Hidan's overall dice rolls:
Section 5: Conclusions
It seems likely that Hazou's unusual luck at Bakuchioka was not due to chance. Rather it seems to have been due to some sort of supernatural interference, as cheating was implausible. Given the circumstances, it is reasonable to attribute that interference to Jashin acting on Hazou's behalf, through a mechanism that its Great Prophet Hidan expected and recognized. We don't need to take decisive action yet. However, there are a number of things we could do that might help us understand our situation and perhaps earn the favor of our questionable patron, that also carry very little risk. I advocate we do these things sooner than later, as the Rock arc is likely to bring us on a collision course with Hidan.
TL;DR, Jashin probably exists and Hazou probably has Jashin's favor. We should do something about this.
All analyses performed on Chō-Han can be replicated with python scripts -- contact me if you'd like access to them. Furthermore, all probabilities reported on Chō-Han are exact probabilities found mathematically, but to hedge against getting the math wrong, they were all verified with simulations of 1,000,000 runs of Chō-Han, and found to be within experimental error.
Finally, all glory be to Jashin.
All glory possibly be to Jashin.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Hmm. Sounds like another hook we should stew on for at least another 9 months or so :^)
- Location
- how about no
That would necessitate Noburi being on call 24/7 whenever we need to utilize this strategy. My main issue with that is that it will cut into all of his available man hours. He won't have nearly as much time to train or pursue any other ventures such as practicing his medical jutsu.
The utility is in eventual misdirection and lessening the chances of assassination attempts against Noburi. If everyone knows that he is the one who enables us to Zoo rush then we can have him make a public appearance while conducting operations with other chakra transfer capable shinobi.
Single points of failure should never be tolerated. As cold-hearted as it is to consider we have to face and address the possibility that Noburi could die since even Jiraiya with all of his strength still kicked the bucket and Naruto got captured. Hell, even Hiashi thought he was safe in the Hokage tower and he along with many senior ninjas are now dead to an unexpected attack. We cannot guarantee anyone's safety and with war on the horizon with at least Rock we need to start planning and researching now to prevent the possibility of strategic catastrophe.
People can be misinformed without trying to lie.
If Noburi remains the only person of enabling Zoo rushes and if they continue to prove preferable to normal offensive operations (and why wouldn't they if there's minimal risk of casualties?) he will eventually become too important to be allowed to walk around unescorted. Even Yuno might not be considered enough of a protector and that would result in all sorts of headaches.
Having Aburame capable of transferring chakra gives us redundancy and therefore Noburi can breathe more freely. He has expressed himself before about how he feels about only being useful for his bloodline and has wanted to prove himself as a person and a ninja as more than the guy with the barrel. He will be absolutely miserable if he has to be on call whenever Leaf wants to use their new Zoo rush.
There is 0% chance of people dying if we only take the next step of asking around for more information. Since all of the kage know about the existence of nature chakra we need to gather information about it too. The arms race has already begun and if we don't consolidate all of the information we have on nature chakra and how draining interacts with summons we won't have a clue what the other villages will be able to do with it.
If Asuma, the Aburame elders, or any other expert on nature chakra tells us to drop it then I will. Not pursuing a line of inquiry when it could have major strategic implications doesn't make sense to me.
Aburame cannot transfer chakra. They can drain it from other ninja, but they can't transfer it between ninja. Noburi remains the lynchpin of the entire Summon Army
Given EJ's statement about Sage Mode, I agree it's time to start poking around. However, I don't think it's smart to start by asking an Aburame ninja to commit suicide for science.
- Location
- Yes.
You're right. Let's go find an Aburame missing-nin and ask them to commit suicide for science.