- Pronouns
- He/Him
or the SSSSS are about to show up and he's telling us which ones he wants us & the Nara to adopt
"Here are the least annoying candidates..." *resigned sigh*
Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest
- Thread starter eaglejarl
- Start date
-
- Tags
- naruto rational rationalist romance armageddon is looking better and better damn you kishimoto explosions everywhere explosives solve everyone if in doubt surrender to the mercy of zabuza it seemed like a good idea at the time looks like a really bad case of being a jōnin my god. where does the lore end? precommitting is the winning plan screaming in kagome screw the rules i have explosives something bad might still happen sometimes you gotta sociopath stabby zabby subsection c of paragraph 9 should include we can weaponize this so hard
"Here are the least annoying candidates..." *resigned sigh*
- Location
- Book Fort
- Pronouns
- They/Them
"...Kid, do you know how much time I wasted getting my stalkers to leave me alone? Why would you invite my fanclub to Leaf?"
"...They had political importance at a vital time?"
"Ugh, politics. I swear, if I'm approached by a single one, for any reason, they're ending up in my basement --clan adoption or no."
There's something I've been thinking about for a while. This thread is, obviously, very good at cheesing out all potential applications for ninja superpowers. Macerators, single mission summoning, and you've certainly abused poor Noburi's abilities to hell and back. Sometimes they don't work, like "bombing with MEWs" but some of the time they do. Now it's gotten to the point where the PC has an in-universe reputation for this, and that opens up a door that had before this been completely closed.
Because you see, the thread is working under a crippling limitation. Most of things you cheese out are abilities that either Hazou himself has or that other members of the Goketsu have. And that's because, well obviously, you know what those abilities are. I'm sure that Leaf has tons of ninja abilities that could equally be cheesed out, but the thread can't cheese them because you don't understand them. Either you haven't heard of them, or you have only the faintest idea of how they work.
But what if you did? What if you did?
What if Hazou had... not knowledge of how to perform these various jutsus and seals (that would be far too much) but a far more extensive knowledge of what is out there in the way of superpowers? Equivalent to what the Hokage's own office knows about how these abilities work, their strengths, their limitations, and enough information to look for promising exploits. What if the thread actually knew about the limits of the Naru shadow-capturing jutsu or the Yamanaka mind switch or any of a dozen others? Is there perhaps cheese to be exploited with those? I bet there is. If only you knew in-character and to some extent out of character.
Hazou's greatest talent, from an in-universe perspective, is finding edge cases and funny applications for particular ninja superpowers and seals. He's done it enough to show it's not a one-off. That's his genius. So what would happen if he actually went to Asuma and said, "Hire me." Ask that Hazou be made an official employee of the Tower, part of the analyst division. And the task he's being given is "Here are all the things that the ninjas of the Leaf can do. What are some synergies and exploits that could be used to trulychange the world benefit Leaf?"
Out of game, this would have to be worked out with the QMs in some matter that doesn't require them to do dozens and dozens of power write-ups, but perhaps something could be done. Like they provide a list of dozens of one sentence descriptions, and then the thread gets to vote as part of a plan to analyze X number in more detail or something like that.
Worth thinking about.
Because you see, the thread is working under a crippling limitation. Most of things you cheese out are abilities that either Hazou himself has or that other members of the Goketsu have. And that's because, well obviously, you know what those abilities are. I'm sure that Leaf has tons of ninja abilities that could equally be cheesed out, but the thread can't cheese them because you don't understand them. Either you haven't heard of them, or you have only the faintest idea of how they work.
But what if you did? What if you did?
What if Hazou had... not knowledge of how to perform these various jutsus and seals (that would be far too much) but a far more extensive knowledge of what is out there in the way of superpowers? Equivalent to what the Hokage's own office knows about how these abilities work, their strengths, their limitations, and enough information to look for promising exploits. What if the thread actually knew about the limits of the Naru shadow-capturing jutsu or the Yamanaka mind switch or any of a dozen others? Is there perhaps cheese to be exploited with those? I bet there is. If only you knew in-character and to some extent out of character.
Hazou's greatest talent, from an in-universe perspective, is finding edge cases and funny applications for particular ninja superpowers and seals. He's done it enough to show it's not a one-off. That's his genius. So what would happen if he actually went to Asuma and said, "Hire me." Ask that Hazou be made an official employee of the Tower, part of the analyst division. And the task he's being given is "Here are all the things that the ninjas of the Leaf can do. What are some synergies and exploits that could be used to truly
Out of game, this would have to be worked out with the QMs in some matter that doesn't require them to do dozens and dozens of power write-ups, but perhaps something could be done. Like they provide a list of dozens of one sentence descriptions, and then the thread gets to vote as part of a plan to analyze X number in more detail or something like that.
Worth thinking about.
- Location
- The state of Paranoia
In my mind that actually proves this correct. If we hadn't been so incredibly useful we would have just died nearly every time we got killboxed or otherwise made a Hokage angry about our treason. Most people just disappear when they commit treason, yet Hazou lives. That's a pretty good indication that being useful to Asuma is a good way to not be killed the next time we commit treason, and the more we help Leaf as a whole the more useful we are.
"… I'm not actually sure whether that would discourage them."
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I know this is heresy but I don't really think we need too many more powerups, I'm content to make further use out of what we already have proximate access to and come into our own power. I have thought though that it would be funny if Hazou offered services to optimize training schedules and such for other ninja like he does for Akane, Kei, and Noburi (and I guess Haru, though Mari may take over that...). I'd hope this wouldn't cut into Ebisu's work since he tutors you in-person, Hazou just optimizes your time for you and makes your training much more efficient, as well as providing some neat tips/tricks for the kit you have. This could be a revenue stream abstracted away to another thing he does for people since he has a reputation for it already
I don't think many people would take him up on it, but it would be funny
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
And we just gave leaf a major military victory with zero casualties and obtained another priceless magical artifact. I think we are good for a while
- Pronouns
- He/Him
yeah this was worth at least .3 treasons, a few more of these and we get 1 free treason
- Location
- UK
- Pronouns
- He/Him
It is taken for granted in shinobi culture that "clan head" is a full-time job. The clan head is a Kage writ small, and if your Kage finds themselves with the time and energy to get a side job, then clearly they are failing the village as its leader.
Clan heads (especially Nara) do function as advisors to the Hokage and that sometimes involves being given access to village intel, but it's usually by invitation. Hazō could request this, but it would be unusual and draw raised eyebrows and probably some disapproving looks.
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
You know we talk about treason a lot but we honestly haven't committed any in over two years of IRL time. I think it's time to admit that we just don't have it in us anymore
- Location
- Italy
That roughly translated to....
...
...
10 second of Hazou-time. Truly, we're far from our prime, as far as treason goes.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Also, why would we WANT this? Hazou is already busy af and look what it did to Shikamaru
- Location
- Fifth Dimension
I mean....I'll just agree to disagree. As someone with actual value isn't one step away from a killbox.
Chapter 472: If You Can't Stand the Heat, Get Out of the Random Sampling of Unfamiliar Foods in the Kitchen Business
- Location
- USA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Chapter 472: If You Can't Stand the Heat, Get Out of the Random Sampling of Unfamiliar Foods in the Kitchen Business
January 19, 1070 AS (the day before game night)
"...and then they came home," Noburi said, completing his tale of the Arachnid Scroll's capture. "We're having a giant party tomorrow to celebrate." He leaned back in his chair and sipped at the tea that Shima had served when he first arrived. The chair was uncomfortable due to being proportioned for a toad, the tea was a little brackish, but he made no complaint. Shima's kitchen was airy and open, sunlight streaming through the window to brighten it up. Blond wood cabinets covered the walls in stacked tiers, many of them too high for Noburi to reach. He had wondered how the two-foot-tall toad matron used them but had carefully not asked. His curiosity was assuaged when she went to get the tea; her tongue flicked out, adhering to the door of a cabinet seven feet off the ground and tugging it open. She then bounded inside from a standing start and emerged moments later with a tin of loose tea.
"Hmph," Fukasaku (never 'Pa'!) grumbled. "Buried in the earth? That's the best they could do to protect a major historical artifact? You humans are bloody useless, aren't you?"
His wife, Shima, whom Noburi still held out hope of winning over with an array of recipes and Human-Path ingredients, poked her husband with one long finger. "They used techniques too, you old goat! Weren't you listening?" She turned to Noburi and rolled her enormous eyes. "Ignore him. He ran out of pipeweed last week and he's in withdrawal. It happens every few months when the weather is bad and the caravans can't travel."
"Oh!" Noburi said. "I almost forgot." He rummaged up the appropriate storage seal and produced a medium brown leather bag, much beaten and weathered and water-stained from traveling across most of the continent over the last two years. Inside were three smaller, much nicer pouches, which Noburi carefully placed in front of the batrachian patriarch. "These are for you, sir."
Fukasaku stared at him, gimlet-eyed, and then blinked. He sniffed the air. He tore the first pouch open with hurried fingers and buried his face in it, sucking air loudly to draw the scent into his lungs. Only when he had drawn more air than should be possible for the lungs of a two-foot amphibian did he stop and sigh happily. He pulled the long-handled ivory pipe from his robe, packed it tight with the pipeweed, and lit it with a jutsu that enveloped his head in a fireball but left him unharmed.
Noburi waited patiently, trying not to smile.
"S'not bad," Fukasaku grunted after a few moments of smoking. "Where's it from?"
"River, sir. That pouch is a kind called 'Autumn Harvest'. The others are 'Tanaka Special' and 'Blowing Smoke'. I figured I'd bring a sampler...let me know which types you prefer and I'll get you a steady supply." He carefully didn't mention the ruinous prices and small quantities available in Leaf. Even if he had to run to River to get the stuff personally it would be worth it if it got him on the good side of the grumpy Toad Sage.
Fukasaku grunted.
"That was Grouchy Old Goat for 'thank you, lad, that was very thoughtful of you'," Shima said. She poked her husband hard enough to rock him in his chair. "Wasn't it?"
"Stop poking me, you old biddy! Very thoughtful blah blah, he's the Summoner! It's literally his job to bring us stuff like this."
"Old biddy? Old biddy?! Listen you thick-witted—"
"Don't you call me thick-witted! Show some respect to your doting husband, the senior Toad Sage!"
"Ha! As if! I've put fresher sage in my casseroles! Besides, you got your certificate thirty seconds before I did!"
"I'm still senior and you still owe me respect!"
Noburi coughed softly and four enormous eyes swiveled towards him in suddenly-united irritation. "Speaking of spices and casseroles, ma'am..." From another storage seal came a pouch filled with dozens of small twists of paper, each one marked with the kanji for the cooking ingredient inside.
"Oooh," Shima said, massive purple lips spreading in a wide grin. "Look at that, old goat. I got more things than you did. I guess he likes me better."
Noburi started to sweat when Fukasaku's accusing eyes locked onto him.
"In fairness, sir, ma'am, it's about the same amount of stuff, it's just packaged differently."
"Ha! And I got mine in nice silk pouches," Fukasaku said smugly. "Yours are those natty old papers."
Shima glared accusingly at Noburi.
Noburi quailed for a moment, then forced himself to take a deep breath. Mari and Asuma had both advised him on the care and feeding of ancient and powerful Toad Sages. He straightened his spine and hoped that the Sages couldn't hear the fluttered pounding of his heart.
"Fukasaku. Shima. With respect, please don't drag me into your marital squabbles. The gifts were intended to make you both happy. I wasn't trying to prefer either one of you to the other." He forced himself not to add an apology on the end. Polite but firm, his counselors had insisted. Not an equal but not a minion either. And definitely not a chewtoy.
The two ancient toads glared at him sourly, then hrmphed and focused their attention on their respective gifts.
Shima opened the first two packages, examined them carefully, and set them aside. She paused when she got to the third, frowning in confusion. "What's a haban—"
"Careful, ma'am!" Noburi said, half reaching out to stop her from licking the small red vegetable. "That's a habanero pepper. It's extremely spicy. You only want to use a tiny amount."
"Are you telling me how to cook, boy?! Let me tell you—"
"No, ma'am!" He raised both hands in placation and leaned away, his chair creaking dangerously under him. "It's just...nothing I've eaten here on the Seventh Path has been particularly spicy. You might want to experiment a bit, just to get a sense for it."
"Hrmph. It's tiny. How bad can it be?" Before Noburi could stop her she bit half the pepper off and started chewing.
Noburi watched in horrified fascination. Yup, I'm going to die.
"See, it's fine! There's noth..." She paused and cleared her throat. "There's nothing..." She coughed, then gagged. "Ash cakes! Broken skies, boy! Agh! What"—cough—"what did you do to me?" She stuck out a tongue half the length of her body and fanned both hands across it.
Noburi dove into his storage seals, frantically searching through the meals section. Duck with orange sauce, no. Salad with vinegar and oil, no. Fish with a honey glaze, nope. Argh, where was—aha!
"Chew this, ma'am!" he said, pushing a plate of tender cubed chicken and rice in cream sauce towards her.
According to Asuma, Shima had decades of experience as a jutsu researcher. She was therefore thoroughly familiar with the old adage that when disaster was happening around you (or, in this case, inside you) it was a good idea to follow the directions of whoever seemed to have a clue. She snatched the plate from Noburi with both hands and threw the contents into her mouth in one go, her cheeks bulging out to make room for roughly a pound of food and half a pint of sauce.
Noburi pulled out a water canteen and held it at the ready but raised a hand to stop her when she reached for it. "The cream neutralizes the spice and the rice soaks it up, ma'am. Roll it around your tongue for a bit before you drink or the water will only spread it around."
Shima followed directions, swishing the food noisily around before swallowing it in one gulp. Noburi handed over the canteen and she drank gratefully.
She sucked down the entire quart of water and then wiped her wide mouth with a satisfied sigh. "Got any more of those? Little Bunty has been stroppy lately and I'd just love to make him a special treat."
"Uh..." Noburi's mind boggled. Gamabunta was larger than a house. Larger than three or four houses combined, actually, for most examples of 'house'. The number of peppers that would be necessary to affect him...
"These things aren't common, ma'am," he temporized. "Given how large the Clan Boss is, I'm not sure if there's enough in Leaf to affect him."
Shima sniffed dismissively. "You go look. Bring me enough and I'll make you something nice in exchange."
Noburi digested that. "Ma'am, I'm not sure I want to get involved in a prank war between the two of you and Lord Gamabunta. I feel like I'm already on thin ice with him."
"Nonsense!" Fukasaku said, waving one webbed hand dismissively. "He doesn't have to know where we got it from. Besides, he's not going to blame you for it. You're just the supplier."
"He's not going to be that mad," Shima said, patting Noburi on the arm. "It's just a little prank. He'll laugh it right off."
Yes, because powerful ninja, human or otherwise, were so well-known for their senses of humor and their careful and proportional allocation of blame. "Okay, but...I mean, I'm still not sure there's enough of those in Leaf to—" He broke off. "Wait, never mind. Keiko told me that the Pangolins love spicy food and have some agonizingly painful spices. I'll see what I can get from her."
"From those scaly bigots?" Shima said. "Harumph. Don't know how I feel about that. Rude bunch of stuck-up conefaces with sticks so far up their butts they come out the mouth."
"Unwad your knickers, you old prune. They may be a bunch of xenophobic jerks but we aren't going to have to talk to them. The boy will do that."
Noburi couldn't help but think about the last time the Gōketsu had traded with the Pangolin Clan and the geopolitical fallout thereof. Granted, he wasn't going to give them skytower seals. Probably not even seals at all. Metals, cloth (they had difficulty with weaving), maybe some exotic foods from the Human Path. What could go wrong?
Author's Note: Today's update brought to you by the power of chest colds and sleep debts. Sorry I didn't have the juice for the Orochimaru conversation; I shall leave it to the very capable eldritch appendages of @Velorien.
Voting remains closed.
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- Location
- The Soviet Republic of Canuckistan
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I see you.
- Location
- Yes.
WE'RE ALL GONNA DIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
- Location
- USA
Is this... storage seals in a storage seal?
- Location
- The Maple Syrup Mountains
Aha, confirmation that an Orochimaru conversation happened! We can now strike off the small chunk of possibility-space where Hazou and Orochimaru were absent for completely unrelated reasons!
Nah that's just what people used before ziploc bags were a thing
- Location
- USA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
This is amazing. Thank you for doing it; it feels great to have people engage with one's work to this extent, and the writeup was impressive.Is Jashin Real? Analyzing Chapter 402First, all glory be to Jashin.
Some people have noted that in Chapter 402, Hazou won an improbable number of times in games of chance, suggesting the possibility of supernatural interference. I'm going to analyze the random rolls from that chapter to try to determine the strength of the evidence for Jashin's existence and its favor of Hazou.
Section 1: Statistics
The main game we'll be looking at is Chō-Han. Let's consider the set-up. First, the dice were fair (or at least, Hidan claimed them to be and Hazou, expert gambler, didn't notice anything amiss). Second, the dice weren't rolled by either ninja, but by a civilian proxy (that changed twice as Hidan killed the rollers). Third, the two alternate taking first bet. With all these factors, it seems reasonable to assume that the game should be a fair fifty-fifty, a coin-flip.
So Hazou won an even game two-to-one. What was the actual result?
Section 1.1: Binomial Analysis
Without looking into the specific rolls, we know that before they started playing:
And afterwards:
So Hazou won 20 games and lost 10, exactly two-to-one. How likely is this? We can examine the binomial distribution, which is the distribution of outcomes from fair coins. In particular, we want to know how likely it is that Hazou won 20 or more games. Here's an image of the binomial distribution, with more than 20 heads highlighted in red (praise Jashin).
Calculating the sum of the tail in red here is trivial:
So, the probability of this series of rolls is about p = 0.049... Let's consult the experts on what that means:Binomial sum:\[ \frac{\sum_{k=20}^{30}\binom{30}{k}}{2^{30}} \approx 0.04937 \]
So, the result is statistically significant. According to normal scientific norms, we can safely say that, most likely, Hazou's unusual luck was not due to random chance. Yet, it's right on the border of significance, so close that it should make us suspicious. Let's see if we can learn more from the exact series of results.
Section 1.2: Impossible Streaks
Hazou and Hidan alternated betting, here's what they bet (Hazou bet first, so on all the odd tokens). C means a bet of Chō, H means a bet of Han:
Hazou: CHCCCCHCCCCCHCCCHCCCCCCCCCCCCC
Hidan: HCHHHHCHHHHHCHHHCHHHHHHHHHHHHH
This is not super informative on its own, though Hazou notably bet Chō 13 times in a row at the end of the game (and Hidan let him). Why? Lets check who won each round:
Hazou's wins: WWWLLLLWLWLWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLLWL
When we examine it, Hazou won a streak of 12 games in a row (and games 4 and on of that streak were part of his Chō betting streak)! Should we be surprised by this?
Lets plot these probabilities. Streaks of 12 or greater are highlighted in red (praise Jashin).Consider the number of ways to flip N coins without seeing a streak of 12. For N < 12, we have the following values:
For an arbitrary N, given all previous values, flipping a coin and adding it to the sequence should double the number of viable sequences. The only way that flipping a coin and adding it to the sequence leads to a streak of 12 heads is if the last 11 added coins were all heads -- so we can assume the last 12 coins were heads and remove from the count the number of valid sequences we had 13 coins ago:Base cases:\[ c_0 = 1 \\ c_1 = 2 \\ c_2 = 4 \\ c_3 = 8 \\ c_4 = 16 \\ \cdots \\ c_{10} = 1024 \\ c_{11} = 2048 \\ \]
Normalizing this is trivial, which we can use to compute probabilities for each number of flips. Reference: What are the odds of getting heads 7 times in a row in 40 tries of flipping a coin?Recursion:\[ c_N = 2c_{N-1} - c_{N-13} \]
Instead calculating the probabilities of streaks of 12, 13, 14, etc... for 30 flips exactly, we can get:
Value:\[ \sum_{s = 12}^{30} P(\text{streak} = s | 30 \text{flips}) = 0.00244 \]
The chance of getting 12 wins in a row in 30 even games is a minuscule p = 0.002: less than 1 percent. This is extremely significant. With this information, I feel very comfortable claiming that there was some sort of supernatural interference in Hazou's game with Hidan.
Section 1.3: Unifying the Factors
However, we've already considered that Hazou won 20 games. Conditioned on the fact that Hazou won at least 20 games out of 30, how likely then is a streak of 12 or more?
And of course, a plot. Again, streaks of 12 or greater are highlighted in red (praise Jashin).Oops! This one was too hard for me to figure out with math, so I copped out and just simulated every possible series of flips that would lead to 20 or more heads. It was only like 53 million possibilities, it took around 10 minutes to run on Python.
Anyway, I'll put some latex here so it looks nice. This is the true probability, every single possibility has been considered:
I'm definitely very good at math, yup'm definitely very good at math, yup:\[ P(\text{streak} \geq 12 | 20 \text{ heads in } 30 \text{ flips}) = 0.03426 \]
Summing the probabilities on this tail, we get p = 0.034. This is still statistically significant! Even if Hazou flipped 20 heads by random chance, we wouldn't expect there to be such a streak like we saw due to random chance. At this point, I feel very comfortable saying that there was supernatural inferference in Hazou's game of chance with Hidan.
Section 2: Discussion
All that was showed here is not conclusive proof of Jashin or of Hazou having Jashin's favor. It merely suggests a supernatural interaction. Could it have been Jashin? Lets consider some points in favor:
In the interest of good argumentation, lets consider some points against:
- Hidan. His bloodline from Hot Springs doesn't seem to come with any form of immortality or physical resilience, based on the fact that Kotsuzui Kenji went down to a punch just like anyone else. The other Akatsuki members's bullshit seems pretty clear -- bloodlines or unique ninjutsu, yet Hidan's is unexplained. Beyond that, he claims it's Jashin, and does he seem like the type to lie?
- The cult. Hidan commands the attention of many, many acolytes, many of them very powerful in the grand scope of the world. Daizen as a low-chuunin was far more powerful than Hazou, and he didn't even seem like a senior cultist. He misspoke a word, was threatened with death, actually died, and still possessed a wild loyalty to Hidan and Jashin both. Hidan doesn't seem terribly charismatic (except in the absolutely-self-confident-evil way) and clearly doesn't give many perks to cultists, so it seems plausible that Jashin's influence fuels the cults existence.
- Other metaphysical entities. Other beings exist that break the rules of normal reality on some level. The Five are obvious, the Dragons and the Bijuu might also count. The Sage similarly likely had some amount of godlike prior. The prior on Jashin's existence should not be as low as it would be otherwise.
- The dice. Hidan seems to think that luck on the dice legitimately predicts Jashin's favor, and Hazou was ridiculously lucky on the dice. Beyond that, there's a very plausible mechanism for how Jashin would have acted -- in this game of 30, it inserted a series of ~10 wins in a row where Hazou otherwise went 10 and 10.
Yet, when I weigh the evidence in my mind, I find myself believing in Jashin (praise Jashin), and believing that Hazou has legitimately won Jashin's favor in a way that lets him continually survive Hidan's attention.
- Power scope. Most entities we know have clear rules by which they interact with the world. The bijuu are either physical entities, or they interact through their jinchuuriki. The Five speak through the minds of their clans. The Dragons are physical entities with some amount of freaky conceptual presence. A power scope for Jashin has to include both some sort of clearly confined buff for Hidan, as well as an omnipresent ability to manipulate dice rolls for Hazou, who has never bonded Jashin explicitly AFAICT. This seems unlikely.
- Lack of obvious evidence or incentive. Jashin probably can act in ways that aren't manipulating dice rolls, so why appear in this way? Jashin could probably find far more bloodthirsty ninja, why focus on Hazou? These questions don't have satisfactory answers.
- Simplicity prior. Hidan seems pretty nuts, so its easier to attribute Jashin to him being nuts. In general, postulating new classes of entities, especially ones that improbably focus on the main character, should be frowned upon.
It may have started as a way for Eaglejarl to finally have fun at first, but if the unsimulationist things done in those chapters were retconned into the story's continuity, then Hazou may have legitimately won Jashin's favor in that fight. If not, then Jashin may be following Hidan's attention, or perhaps it legitimately likes Hazou's Uplift idea (what for?). Either way, I am now >90% sure of Jashin's existence, and will adjust my opinions accordingly as we see new evidence.
Section 3: Action Points
On the one hand, Jashin really seems to value sacrifice. On the other hand, Hazou isn't going to commit wanton acts of human sacrifice. On the third hand, Jashin favored Hazou in Chapter 402 while he was trying to protect civilians from being sacrificed. On the fourth hand, we have a bunch of human targets who are acceptable to kill. To some extent, these problems can solve each other. I propose the following action points.
At the bare minimum:
Tough to finagle, maybe worthwhile:
- Request Jashin's holy symbol back from Asuma, for if/when Hidan visits again.
Easy to do, but with reputational/political risks:
- Ask what [Kei/Shikamaru/Ami/Ino/Asuma/Mari/Kagome/Yuno/SSSSS/Orochimaru] knows about Jashin.
- No particular order
- [N.B. Yuno could be a particularly good choice! She knows very unusual Forbidden Lore]
Harder to do, should probably wait till we're uninjured:
- Request permission to personally execute a captured Rock ninja scheduled for execution.
- Ideally, one responsible for razing and murdering civilian border villages.
- If the environment can be made sufficiently private, verbally declare that the execution is in the name of Jashin. Otherwise, mentally.
- Execute the ninja with bare hands, pay attention to any unusual sensations.
- [N.B. could get placebo effects!]
- [N.B. we could also do this with estate civilians slated for execution, such as the child molester from Chapter 357]
- Request permission to defend border villages.
- Once a Rock ninja that has murdered/otherwise would murder civilians is found, verbally declare that you will sacrifice them to Jashin.
- Murder them before they can murder you.
- If using Dogs/allies, request that they don't take the kill.
Section 4: Extra analyses
It's good practice in statistics to list analyses that you did even if they didn't factor into your final considerations, to ensure that you're not cherry picking results. I did a few analyses on the dice rolls produced by Hazou and Hidan in their game of Chinchiro. Here are the dice rolls, in order:
Hazou: 233554255611456
Hidan: 145456466356146236445356126135446155 // 146224123114266145234155456146256226123566566166245155136246146123266234446 // 134235266344126233245146355456125124225145246125116556346136344156456345224346345346556236125224224166
In Hidan's rolls, the first "//" indicates when Hazou got his 456 and could no longer lose, and the second "//" marks when:
I'll put the actual analyses in the spoiler because I don't think they turned out important, even though there were some statistically significant results. If you want to look into them, feel free to see what I did and use anything I generated here.
In the absence of a better way to analyze the results, I decided to partition results on the dice into high (4, 5, 6) and low (1, 2, 3), then see if either party's rolls were unusually high.
I did the following analyses:
- Were Hazou's rolls unusually high?
- p=0.3036
- not statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high until the first "//"?
- p=0.0144
- statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high after the first "//"?
- p=0.0879
- not statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high overall?
- p=0.0140
- statistically significant.
- Were Hidan's rolls unusually high after the second "//"?
- p=0.1864
- not statistically significant.
On the whole, it looks like Hazou rolled normally, and Hidan rolled extremely well. This might be evidence of some passive effect of Jashin's influence on Hidan. However, the results are not conclusive enough for me to include them in the main body of the post.
Lastly, consider the outcome probabilities of a single run of Chinchiro:
Outcomes: Probability
1-2-3: 0.055
1-X-X: 0.139
2-X-X: 0.139
3-X-X: 0.139
4-X-X: 0.139
5-X-X: 0.139
6-X-X: 0.139
1-1-1: 0.009
2-2-2: 0.009
3-3-3: 0.009
4-4-4: 0.009
5-5-5: 0.009
6-6-6: 0.009
4-5-6: 0.055
Hazou got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 0
1-X-X: 0
2-X-X: 2
3-X-X: 0
4-X-X: 1
5-X-X: 0
6-X-X: 1
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 1
Nothing unusual, I didn't bother analyzing further.
Hidan got the following outcomes:
1-2-3: 2
1-X-X: 5
2-X-X: 5
3-X-X: 3
4-X-X: 6
5-X-X: 3
6-X-X: 6
1-1-1: 0
2-2-2: 0
3-3-3: 0
4-4-4: 0
5-5-5: 0
6-6-6: 0
4-5-6: 3
Versus the following expected outcomes over the same 27 trials:
1-2-3: 1.5
1-X-X: 3.75
2-X-X: 3.75
3-X-X: 3.75
4-X-X: 3.75
5-X-X: 3.75
6-X-X: 3.75
1-1-1: 0.25
2-2-2: 0.25
3-3-3: 0.25
4-4-4: 0.25
5-5-5: 0.25
6-6-6: 0.25
4-5-6: 1.5
For deltas like so:
1-2-3: +0.5
1-X-X: +1.25
2-X-X: +1.25
3-X-X: -0.75
4-X-X: +2.25
5-X-X: -0.75
6-X-X: +2.25
1-1-1: -0.25
2-2-2: -0.25
3-3-3: -0.25
4-4-4: -0.25
5-5-5: -0.25
6-6-6: -0.25
4-5-6: +1.5
It's hard to draw any conclusions from this.
Finally, a graph of Hidan's overall dice rolls:
Section 5: Conclusions
It seems likely that Hazou's unusual luck at Bakuchioka was not due to chance. Rather it seems to have been due to some sort of supernatural interference, as cheating was implausible. Given the circumstances, it is reasonable to attribute that interference to Jashin acting on Hazou's behalf, through a mechanism that its Great Prophet Hidan expected and recognized. We don't need to take decisive action yet. However, there are a number of things we could do that might help us understand our situation and perhaps earn the favor of our questionable patron, that also carry very little risk. I advocate we do these things sooner than later, as the Rock arc is likely to bring us on a collision course with Hidan.
TL;DR, Jashin probably exists and Hazou probably has Jashin's favor. We should do something about this.
All analyses performed on Chō-Han can be replicated with python scripts -- contact me if you'd like access to them. Furthermore, all probabilities reported on Chō-Han are exact probabilities found mathematically, but to hedge against getting the math wrong, they were all verified with simulations of 1,000,000 runs of Chō-Han, and found to be within experimental error.
Finally, all glory be to Jashin.
Emstar
The Shining One
- Location
- Trapped in an extradimensional rift.
- Pronouns
- She/They
Hello yes I will vote for an action plan if and only if its aligned partly with this, thank you.