Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

Sir Stompy · Nov 13, 2021

RandomOTP said:
Interesting that Kei denies reading Icha Icha with a violent fervor, but Snowflake readily admits it. Further interesting is that Kei (seemed to) enjoy Icha Icha as literature worthy of literary analysis (she recommended certain books to Akane, iirc, under a thin veil of "hypothetically..."), but that Snowflake obviously disdains the series.

Is this still true? Embarrassment over your choice of recreation is often a sign of immaturity. Perhaps Kei simply grew out of it.

Paperclipped · Nov 13, 2021

First, all glory be to Jashin.

TheCrownedVassal said:
FIrst of all, my compliments on your statistical analysis, I appreciated a lot. It shows conscientiousness, a trait which I admire and lack.

That said, I disagree with your conclusion. The only reason to favour your hypothesis (that Hazou has in some form gained the favour of Jashin) over others the fact that Hidan says so, a zealot who is likely to see his patrons influence in all things.

Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it.

In other words, isn't your analysis better evidence for a supernatural entity inimical to Jashin watching over Hazou? after all, it helped him avoid human sacrifices, whereas Jashin is heavily associated with human sacrifices and wanton murder. In addition, even if it was Jashin intervening in our favour, it would seem strange for it to intervene against its most valuable follower.

Yep, this is a viable explanation as well. However, we don't know many supernatural entities, and the ones we do know don't seem to work through some sort of probability manipulation, which is a thing that Hidan clearly expected Jashin to do. Strictly speaking, the post only provides concrete evidence for supernatural tampering, and any specifics of Jashin vs. other supernatural entities is just my best guesses. That said, I do think there's good reason to believe that it's Jashin and not a mysterious, black-swan-esque supernatural entity, though this is hard to probe without knowing what else is out there.

Another hypothesis occurs to me: Jashin intervened not in favor of Hazou, but in disfavour of Hidan. Maybe the god was just out to warn/lightly punish/guide their follower. Hazou might just have been lucky to be used as Jashin's method of reprimanding Hidan. This also seems to me to be more likely than Jashin having an explicit interest in Hazou, since we have not noticed(?) any other sign of supernatural intervention.

Yep, also possible. Didn't consider this, I guess because of protagonist bias? I saw what happened and assumed it happened because of the viewpoint character.

cdeevfrr said:
In the Jashin stuff - I think it's more likely that someone cheated in some way that we haven't picked up on yet. Ex, mabe Hidan was using modified dice and Hauzo picked up on it, and the modified dice made even rolls more likely. Or one of the two ninja otherwise modified the dice (or was consistently using some kind of jutsu) or something.

Modified dice don't matter much, because Cho-Han uses the sum of two dice, and only cares about even or odd. First, Hazou won on a mix of Cho and Han (even and odd), though mostly on Cho. Second, even if the dice were weighted, it wouldn't matter much since you can reach Cho through 2x even or 2x odd on the two dice, and increasing the chance of even decreases the chance of odd. You can check the spoilered Chinchiro analysis for dice probabilities, the dice may be weighted towards even, but only ~0.52 odds vs a normal 0.5. The chance of a pair of ~0.52 dice making an even number is not 0.52, but rather ~0.501, so basically even. These numbers are pulled from my memory but are roughly accurate: weighted dice don't change the analysis.
I don't expect that Hidan was cheating. Especially, I don't think he was cheating in favor of Hazou (and depriving Jashin of his due!)
As to if Hazou was cheating, well...

Also, p=.049 means a 1 in 20 chance. A 1 in 20 chance still does actually happen one time in 20: I think there might have been at least 20 dramatic roll events in our quest, we should expect at least one to turn out unreasonably well (and one to turn out unreasonably poorly).

There are multiple analyses. If you want to update, you should update first on p=0.049 from the 20-heads, and second on the 12-streak in 20-heads, which is p=0.034. Multiplying these together gives a neat 0.001666, suggesting that you should believe in supernatural tampering 600 (!) times more than previously.

I'm seeing 3 major hypotheses here:
H1: Jashin (or QMs)
H2: no one did anything, normal roles
H3: Ninjas (including Hazoupilot) did something offscreen we haven't figured out

Like I mentioned above, I don't think Hidan cheated based on his personality and expressed preferences thus far. As to Hazou cheating... this is easy enough to check! @eaglejarl @Velorien , did Hazou do anything to influence the game of Cho-Han he played with Hidan in his favor?

My priors were around
H1: 1 H2: 9 H3: 3
(I think)

I think you gave good evidence for both H1 and H3, so I think my odds are now around
H1: 1 H2: 1 H3: 2

Show me another few events in favor of the Jashin hypothesis, and I might bite. Definitely worth trying to pray to him to see what happens!

Yeah, so this doesn't give mathematically strong evidence for Jashin, just mathematically strong evidence for some sort of fishy tampering. Given the circumstances, I think we can safely rule out ninja tampering and judge that it's supernatural tampering, and since we have a limited hypothesis space when it comes to supernatural entities, I think we can safely conclude that it's Jashin specifically that's the supernatural entity -- but those latter two steps are not backed up by cold-hard-math in the way that the first one is. Still, I think they're imminently reasonable.

Velorien · Nov 13, 2021

Paperclipped said:
@eaglejarl @Velorien , did Hazou do anything to influence the game of Cho-Han he played with Hidan in his favor?

Not as far as he is aware.

Paperclipped · Nov 13, 2021

Velorien said:
Not as far as he is aware.

Well, that rules out a hypothesis then. Thanks!

_The_Bomb · Nov 13, 2021

Velorien said:
Chapter 456: Allies of Inconvenience

I am back! What a cliffhander to leave off on...

Velorien said:
"Does it involve the ruthless and absolute destruction of Hidden Rock with every ill-considered superweapon at your disposal the very instant the Hokage gives us permission?" Kei asked with the expectant air of a hungry Fifi noticing a fresh kill in his hands (or, rather, in Kagome-sensei's hands—he liked to spoil her, and sometimes there were "treats" left over after an afternoon of weapons testing in the woods).

Oh Kei, you know us so well. No, it doesn't. Not yet, anyways. I'd be very surpised if we don't think of at least one of these of the course of the war, though.

Velorien said:
"Only indirectly," Hazō reluctantly admitted. "I've been thinking about Naruto, and how there would be a perfect synergy between his powers and certain Pangolin ninjutsu. It's entirely your decision, and obviously it would be conditional on him being able to keep it secret—which you'd also be able to judge better than me, since presumably you entrust him with KEI secrets every day—but it could be a big boost to Leaf's combat potential, and also to him not hating the Gōketsu quite as much."

This is finally happening! I've been waiting for this to happen for so long. Even if it doesn't pan out, we need to at least bring it up with her. It's been unresolved for far too long.

Velorien said:
"Those as well. But to begin with, as far as they are concerned, the very foundations of our deal were laid in bad faith. You must recall, Hazō, when we first negotiated with the Pangolins, their understanding of shinobi modernity was fragmented at best. They still lived in Ui's times, when the notion of a clanless population would have been alien and horrifying."

Ah. It's going to be very hard to negotiate, isn't it.

Velorien said:
on the assumption that we intended to develop our clan through… procreation and occasional exogamy.

heheheh

Velorien said:
"They are aware they have no formal grounds for complaint. We are acting within the terms of the contract, and contracts are sacred. However, their ninjutsu are permanently out of their control now, and spreading rapidly in ways over which they have no influence. In exchange for this permanent and growing loss, what they received was a temporary benefit—which we then unilaterally terminated in a way that left them in dire straits indeed. Any observer unable to understand the condoritarian motivations behind our actions would surely conclude that we ruthlessly exploited the Pangolins by taking advantage of their ignorance of clan structures in the village era, then abandoned them as soon as we no longer needed the resources they provided. That is, assuming we were not planning to ruin them all along on behalf of some other Seventh Path entity."

Ah, this is not good at all. We're not at a point where we can make it up to them/bribe then into overlooking this. Teaching Naruto Ghost Scales is going to be harder than I thought. At least this is Kei's primary complaint and she's not opposed to the idea on principle.

Velorien said:
"I appreciate the fashion in which you brought this to me, Hazō," she said eventually. "I regret that I do not have a better response to offer you.

Yay for OPSEC! We brought up the idea in secret and were clear about everything being up to her and now there's no harm done at the end.

Velorien said:
You recall the existence of the Tama Clan, Rock's optimisation specialists?"

Hazō nodded.

"At least one must survive. Ideally more, for the sake of a safety margin. Please bear this in mind when preparing your plan to annihilate Hidden Rock as you can, must, and will."

The Tama Clan must be one of the Five. And now we know that the survival of a clan memeber is likely required to hold back an eldritch horror from (presumably) reshaping out reality to their whims. I'm always happy to get more info on them.

Still, this is some important strategic information that has a massive impact on our wartime strategy. I wonder if she's going to inform Asuma. Maybe the Nara will do it privately? Maybe he already knows all about the Five.

This just leads to more questions for me. What if we kidnap one of their members and then do a mass genocide on Rock? Would the surving member have to be fully knowledgeable about Tama secrets or is their bloodline living the only thing that matters? Kei seemed to imply that it was the latter. Can we keep them in Leaf? I highly doubt it's a coincidence that there's one of the Five in every village. What would Uncle Iroh say about the balance between the Elemental Nations?

I'm really out of the loop in terms of the Five lore (since most of it comes from analyses done before I joined the quest that I haven't all found) so if anyone knows the answer to these, I would love to hear it.

Velorien said:
"There are options available to us. We can discuss the matter in more depth once you have a shortlist of localised apocalypses. For now, please trust that it is necessary. The Hokage will be aware of this as well, as indeed will the Tama."

NARA TO TARA: please prepare a designated survivor that remains in Leaf in case we destroy the entirety of Rock. they will be treated well and kept as a completely secret from all leaf and rock forces, not as a hostage. also, don't tell your kage about us planning to destroy all of Rock (which you have definitely figured out from this message)
TARA: ok, you should do the same, don't tell your kage about this either.
NARA: fuck

Velorien said:
It was almost as if the universe was starting to take Gōketsu Hazō seriously.

The dragons are already a big enough threat that even EJ can not think of a simple solution to immedieately stop it despite seeing all the cards on the table. We're already being taken seriously. You can stop increasing our difficulty.

eaglejarl · Nov 13, 2021

PSA: We could use some extra eyes.

The QMs decided that we weren't thrilled with the current mechanics for the Frozen Skein Ultimate Technique, so we came up with this. Both of us have signed off on it but it would be good to get some player review before making it official, just in case we missed anything. Comments?

Starting next round, the user receives a (Frozen Skein AB) bonus to initiative.

The user receives the "Flicker of Omniscience" Aspect. Each round, they receive 2x(Frozen Skein AB) tags on it. They may use up to 2+(FS AB) tags on any given roll. Any number of tags may be passed to any teammate(s) with whom the user can communicate (but they are limited to 1 tag per roll as normal).

The user takes 2 mental stress per round. They do not take mental stress from any other source, nor suffer from mental Consequence penalties. However, the technique cannot be manually terminated. The user will continue to take mental stress until they are Taken Out.

When the user is Taken Out, roll 1d10 + 15. This is the number of steps on the time ladder necessary to regain consciousness.

Evaluating some possibilities of what Keiko (Ranged Weapons 40 (AB 5), Athletics 50 (AB 6)) could do with this.

Level 1 in FS (1 XP): User gets +1 to initiative and 1 tag. This gives +5 to one attack roll or +6 to a dodge roll.
Level 10 (55 XP): +2 to initiative, 4 tags. Can use all the tags on one roll, potentially giving +20 to hit or +24 to dodge. Can also pass the tags to others, giving the entire party a bonus.
Level 20 (210 XP): +3 initiative, 6 tags. Can use 5 of them on one roll for +25 to hit (meaning she's rolling jōnin numbers before any other bonus) or +30 to dodge (Kage-level dodging).
Level 30 (465 XP): +4 initiative, 8 tags. Can use 6 of them on one roll for overwhelming numbers. (+30 to hit = 70, +36 to dodge = 86)

Ranged Weapons 40 + FS 30 costs 820+465=1285 and allows you to roll 70 once.

RW70 = 2485 when leveled the normal way, so the FS boost is very efficient.

Athletics 60 (a normal jōnin score) = 1830 XP

Under this model, Frozen Skein is a very efficient way to be able to generate one or two high-powered attacks. All else equal, with FS 30 she could get 70-60=10 = 4 shifts + kunai(weapon 1) + attached explosive (weapon 4) = 9 shifts against a jōnin. That's his track + Mild + Medium. Next round she can do the same thing and tag both consequences for an additional 5+5= +10 on the roll, meaning an additional 4 shifts, meaning she explodes him into goo.

She can sustain 3+2+3+4= 12 mental stress before being Taken Out, so she can do the above sequence for 6 rounds. She can also save her rolls for dodging, allowing her to dodge the low end of Kage-level attacks while (e.g.) spreading goo bombs around the battlefield in order to generate tags for other people to use.

faflec · Nov 13, 2021

*screaming in Orochimaru interrupt*

RandomOTP · Nov 13, 2021

eaglejarl said:
The user takes 2 mental stress per round. They do not take mental stress from any other source, nor suffer from mental Consequence penalties. However, the technique cannot be manually terminated. The user will continue to take mental stress until they are Taken Out.

This has possible synergy with Shadow Clones and clone sickness. Clone sickness is a mental stress, reduced by Resolve, right?

faflec · Nov 13, 2021

RandomOTP said:
This has possible synergy with Shadow Clones and clone sickness. Clone sickness is a mental stress, reduced by Resolve, right?

Yes, but you will be unconscious for a minimum of 3 months and up to .... what, several millennia? The time scale doesn't say anything past "several centuries".

Paperclipped · Nov 13, 2021

eaglejarl said:
When the user is Taken Out, roll 1d10 + 15. This is the number of steps on the time ladder necessary to regain consciousness.

I'll give an analysis of the numbers tomorrow morning, but this part specifically is very crippling. There's a small chance (~30%) that the ninja wakes up within a relevant timescale (a year or less), and is otherwise effectively dead. There's no way to carefully draw on FS for combat without most likely effectively dying.

This is a stark contrast from what I understand to be the last version of the Ultimate Technique (The Best Laid Schemes), which allowed for a careful drawing on FS in exchange for mental stress, and a hefty hammerblow at the end that would make you regret the attempt. In this version, unless it overflowed your stress track even after you took a Severe, you wouldn't be "Taken Out" by it and presumably go into a coma. This led to two modes for the Frozen Skein in combat, one where you use it carefully and sparingly, and another where you go all out, accepting that you'll likely be dead to the world afterwards in a coma (presumably with GM discretion on whether you wake up in 3 months or half a century).

Cariyaga · Nov 13, 2021

It occurs to me that Yamanaka assistance may be able to speed recovery from Frozen Skein-induced issues...

Sir Stompy · Nov 13, 2021

RandomOTP said:
This has possible synergy with Shadow Clones and clone sickness. Clone sickness is a mental stress, reduced by Resolve, right?

Clone sickness is rolled as an attack against Resolve, a high Resolve score can only increase the number of rounds FSUT is active by increasing the number of hitboxes. It does nothing to reduce damage.

A high Resolve score makes you a little tankier against mental stress, but if you're guaranteed to be Taken Out that helps very little.

faflec · Nov 13, 2021

@eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail Is the Frozen Skein (the levelable skill) relevant for anything besides the Ultimate Technique? I know the rulesdoc says it gives mechanical benefits for bad plans, but IIRC we've only ever used it once during the Hot Springs Incident (and we didn't even have the skill back then).

roobee · Nov 13, 2021

Anything that can heal mental stress. Medic nin, yamanaka techniques, genjutsu (like sunny days, or truth lost in the fog) would combo very OP with this. Even though it would be required to be used on the user 24/7, even when they sleep.

Advances in medical technology to revive coma patients. Whether from Oro or Cloud (which has advances into the brain) could potentially combo well.

A user could use the aspect tags to work on a solution to the drawbacks of the technique. Via sealing/technique hacking/etc. A solution either via the above two combo pathways, or some other one. They would have Kage+ skills to do it.

_The_Bomb · Nov 13, 2021

eaglejarl said:
Despite his best efforts, Hazō was the last one into the war council. Needing a cane did that to a person.

Him and Kei were first into the room last chapter. Right?

eaglejarl said:
The air in the room crackled with sparks that flew from stones grinding against one another just out of sight.

I do not understand this metaphor. Can someone please explain this to me?

eaglejarl said:
Not even the legendarily stoic Hyūga or the utterly insane Orochimaru succeeded at presenting an entirely calm face when they saw Asuma's expression. Even Orochimaru was visibly in the mindset of a field ninja: hyperaware of his surroundings and ready to move the instant the expected threat materialized.

well that's terrifying
have we ever seen Oro scared before?

Wait, is Asuma a scary combatant even to Oro?! I was under the impression that he's not exactly S-Rank despite being our kage.

eaglejarl said:
"Lord Hokage," Shikamaru said carefully, "are you ordering us to eradicate the capital of Earth Country?"

"Obviously," Asuma snapped. He snatched up one of the stacks of papers and threw them down in front of Shikamaru. "Read it."

Yay! Asuma is with us on team genocide! Wahoo!!!! We can actually try and eradicate them. Also, what did they say to make him that mad?

eaglejarl said:
The temperature seemed to be rising, the grinding of the stones growing louder, with every second that passed.

Oh. It's not a metaphor. It's a manifestation of Asuma's jonin aura leaking out. He's so mad that he isn't intentionally focusing on keeping his soul from spilling out over the world.

Side note: I'm really hoping that our Resolve stat helps us resits jonin-aura. That would make a lot of sense mechanically, and would lead to some really funny situations down the line when we have our mega-high resolve stat. We might be able to use this situation as a baseline for our resistantce (a control test, if you will), since we're only around effectives level 11 right now.

eaglejarl said:
Kushida Crossing: Eliminated

Fuyuko - chūnin - MSD

Sadahiro - genin - MSD/CC, PD

Hyūga Harue - chūnin - KIA

Hyūga Masafumi - jōnin - KIA

Hyūga Sukenobu - chūnin - KIA

Twin Oaks: Eliminated

Aburame Eriko - genin - KIA

Chiaki Asao - genin - KIA

Egusa Hirotoki - genin - KIA

Fukita - chūnin - MSD

Falling River: HR/HR

Gusukuma Ruri - genin - KIA

Hagino Mareo - genin - MSD, PD

Hagoromo Gen - jōnin - KIA

Hashirama's Grace: E/NE

Tsukiko - genin - KIA

Iijima Wakana - chūnin - MSD

Kameyama Goro - genin - MSD/CC

Kumashiro Kana - genin - KIA

Kurusu Ikue - genin - KIA

Stone Faces: HR/R

Makihara Hiroi - jōnin - KIA

Maruya - genin - MSD/CC, PD

Motoyoshi Suehiro - genin - KIA

Noro Taiichi - genin - MSD

Sun's Touch: Eliminated

Haida Sachi - chūnin - MSD/CC

Patrol 7:

Watai Haruko - genin - KIA

Watai Emiko - genin - MSD

Wow. Even I, someone who doesn't live in this world, am furious about this.

Edit: I have now realized that this is Asuma's internal casualty report and not Rock enraging us by literally sending us a letter listing the peole they just killed. Thanks @Paperclipped.

eaglejarl said:
"Fuck no," the blond replied. "Team Seven forever." He tapped fists with the last scion of the Uchiha.

Is Sakura being purposefully included from this? Also, Kakashi is dead, right?

eaglejarl said:
"Great," Asuma said. "I want ideas on how. Lord Gōketsu, you're up."

"Me, sir?"

Asuma tossed the objection angrily aside. "Stop fucking around. Jiraiya told me how you're always having ideas for new weapons. Put up or shut up."

please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives please don't mention massive explosives

eaglejarl said:
"Do not talk down to me, dog bitch! Two minutes in and Gōketsu is already arranging things such that his clan is protected. Sage forbid that the Gōketsu should take a risk or—"

"Shut. Your fucking mouth."

Everyone cringed at Asuma's frozen words.

smiles

eaglejarl said:
The world's greatest medic-nin gave a snort rich with dismissive condescension. "Look, brat. It's cool that you want to support your brother, but let's be straight: He's not that good and he hasn't been pursuing the training. I'm sincerely glad that we've got someone trained in more than basic first aid, and good on him for learning as much as he did before he gave it up to pursue something sexier like Summoning. But if you call him a medic again I'm going to have to rip your head off."

"Tsunade."

She sat back in her chair, arms folded over her chest, and glared resentfully. "Fine, whatever."

Did....did we just win a verbal argument with Tsunade about who could be consdiered a medic? What on earth is going on here?

eaglejarl said:
Tsunade's face went blank and a mountain shimmered on the edge of visibility, looming over Hazō and threatening to crash down. She sat forward, eyes locked on Hazō.

Again with the mountain theme for Tstuande's aura. The consistency is different circumstances is really helpful for learning more about auras and how they work. Always happy to have a bigger sample size for one of the most interesting mechanics we have.

eaglejarl said:
"Not...exactly, sir."

"Then I am disappointed you are not willing to share them in front of your assembled brethren. Do so. Now."

"Um, yes sir.

Take the fall for this here and let the Nara inform him in private later. Info on The Five is Need-To-Know and saving yourself from being yelled at is not a valid reason that everyone else in the room needs to know about this.

eaglejarl said:
"First would be aerial bombardment. We use skywalkers to take up position high above Rock. Then we use Multiple Earth Wall, or simply storage seals, to drop thousands of pounds of rocks on them. We can—"

"Oh, for the sake of the Sage!" Lord Hagoromo said, throwing his hands in the air. "This is your brilliant idea that you needed to keep private? We've all been experimenting with that since the day skywalkers became available! It's useless! You can't hit anything meaningful from any significant height—certainly not a ninja. And it doesn't do that much damage to whatever random chunk of land it does hit!"

We said like three lines. What an arsehole.

eaglejarl said:
"Yes," Hazō said through clenched teeth. "In the short term it will harm civilians more than ninja, but Rock can't afford to have their entire population die of thirst. They will be forced to send ninja to locate and remove the dams. At the same time they won't want to draw down their current force deployments for fear that we might do exactly what they did to us: Use overwhelming force to hit population centers that have small ninja detachments, as part of a 'defeat in detail' strategy." He swept his hand across Earth Country on the map. "Wherever their people currently are, it's because those places need to be protected. They won't want to draw down the protection so they will be forced to call back the ninja from Fire."

I can't wait until Akane learns about this. Then again, there's a good chance that she doesn't view foreign civilians as "people" so we might be fine. Maybe.

eaglejarl said:
The team will probably need to stay in-country for a few months but we should be able to depopulate Earth Country before spring planting.

This is a really good chance for us to learn weather the Scortch Squads are real. Their expertiese/tactics would be very helpful here and so we would have good reason to ask.

eaglejarl said:

He glanced at Hazō and made a tossing-away gesture with one hand. "Oh, and we'll resettle all their civilians into Fire. Better life for them, more economic growth for us. The clans may feel free to adopt any of them that you find useful and if there are any mutual claims we'll have a lottery to settle them."

Click to expand...

Click to shrink...

We're being humored here. I mean, I'll take it, but that's all that Uplift amounts to in his eyes. Not something good in and of itself, but something that only matters in so far as we care about it.

eaglejarl said:
"Hold up," said Akimichi Chōza, finally breaking his silence. "Asuma, you can't really be serious about this. Right?"

The Hokage turned to meet the objector's eyes. "Are you questioning my orders, Lord Akimichi?"

Akimichi raised his hands in placation. "Sir, I'm asking you to consider the full ramifications of these orders. It is my duty as a member of your advisory council to make sure you have the best information possible. Could we exterminate Earth with this plan? Yes, probably. Would it be good for Leaf in the long run?"

"Would it be good for us to remove the enemy we have been fighting since the villages were founded? The one that, not months ago, murdered both of your teammates and far too many of Leaf's Clan Heads and senior jōnin? The one that stole our land and will clearly do so again the moment they have gathered their strength? They aren't going to stop, Chōza. They have already nibbled at our edges. They will be back for a larger bite and if we don't demonstrate to the entire world what a bad idea that is then soon enough we will have Lightning trying the same, or Mist, or perhaps even one of the minor nations."

"My Lord, he's right," said Kurusu. "Exterminating another nation is not the Will of Fire. The First would never have condoned it."

Asuma slapped the table. "THE FIRST IS DEAD! I am the Hokage now and you will do as ordered!"

"Yes, sir, you are," said Motoyoshi. "And the clans of Leaf are obedient to your office. But we are obedient to the office of the Hokage because the Hokage is the embodiment of the Will of Fire. Even if this plan were feasible with our current force levels, it does not dwell within the Will of Fire."

The air burned. "GET THE FUCK OUT!" Asuma bellowed. "ANBU! ATTEND!"

I'm glad we're not the ones who had to say this.

eaglejarl said:
Asuma stabbed a finger at Motoyoshi. "Get this—"

Shikamaru suddenly doubled over in a coughing fit so violent that everyone started to reach for their weapons or push their chairs back.

Ino thumped Shikamaru gently on the back and rubbed circles of comfort as the young Nara continued to suffer wracking coughs.

Tsunade pushed her chair back and stood up, moving down the table to Shikamaru's chair so that she could run medical chakra across his skull and spine. She studied him for a moment, chewing her cheek in thought, then tapped him on the shoulder with two fingers. The coughing subsided almost immediately.

"Thank you, Lady Tsunade," Shikamaru said, nodding gratitude to the legendary medic. He wiped some spittle from his lips and nodded to Asuma and then to the rest of the table. "Your apologies, everyone. I have been feeling poorly recently. Lord Hokage, I sincerely apologize for derailing your train of thought. I believe you had intended to call for the current force distribution across the western border in order to demonstrate to Lord Motoyoshi that he was mistaken when he doubted the feasibility of your plan?"

Asuma studied the teen for long seconds during which Shikamaru met his gaze with one of complete innocence.

I cannot belive that actually worked and everyone, uncluding Tsunade, immedieately went along with it. This is what we like to calling "giving an exit" to the powerful person about to do massive damage so that they can change their mind or stop what they're doing without losing face.

eaglejarl said:
"Thank you, sir." He pulled the map over and gestured to the rivers in Earth Country. "First, I agree that the plan is feasible from a purely technical perspective. We have the expertise and the manpower. Earth Country lives or dies at your command, Lord Hokage.

Now comes the flattery. It's Asuma's choice. He's so powerful that Earth Country lives or dies entirely based on his decision. A lack of total annihalation isn't weakness, it's Asuma's mercy.

Nice way to frame it.

eaglejarl said:
"Of course, we won't kill every Rock ninja. Many of them will go missing rather than die of thirst or in hopeless battle against two Sannin and the strongest jinchūriki. This will have the unfortunate effect of spreading the news about our tactics to the rest of the Elemental Nations. Over the course of three world wars, no nation has launched an extermination campaign against another, so the fact that we are doing so will make everyone else extremely nervous. In order to avoid a preemptive coordinated assault from the other major and minor nations we will want to prepare the ground by making a series of extremely favorable trade agreements with Lightning and Mist before launch of the genocide plan. I would need to run some detailed models but at a first guess I suspect we should expect to see ten percent of our economy disappear from Fire for the next decade. I have a Nara team performing economic models so that we can better project how to prepare for such an event. We had intended this to be a clan secret but under the circumstances I will be happy to mark the information public and provide full data sharing to both the Tower and any other interested clan."

There's a lot I want to say about his approach to this argument, but I'll be here all day if I type it all out. So let me just comment on a small thing. This would be a great way to sneak out some of Tama clan.

eaglejarl said:
Asuma rubbed his face with both hands and nodded. He looked tired, and when he spoke his voice was resigned. "Indeed. Now taking suggestions."

Tension went out of every face in the room at those words. Everyone shifted in their seat and 'fight or flight' became 'plan and politic'.

Victory! It was a team effort, but we managed to prevent Asuma from going with the genocide plan that we provided him with.

eaglejarl said:
EDIT: It may not have been clear to the reader from mere words on the page, but to the people in the room it was clear that Shikamaru talked Asuma down. He is no longer looking for a campaign of extermination, he simply wants to end the war with minimal loss of life on your side. He'd undoubtedly be happy if that involved a great deal of loss of life on their side, but he's not insisting on that.

That was pretty clear to me.

faflec · Nov 13, 2021

_The_Bomb said:
I can't wait until Akane learns about this. Then again, there's a good chance that she doesn't view foreign civilians as "people" so we might be fine. Maybe.

I mean, she flipped her shit over Hazou's actions against Leaf's Yakuza, in the process making a deliberate comparison to the Sunset Racer which was filled with foreign civilians.

Orisha91 · Nov 13, 2021

Damn. Missed the vote.

RandomOTP · Nov 13, 2021

_The_Bomb said:
I do not understand this metaphor. Can someone please explain this to me?

As I understand it, it's Asuma's self-destructive anger. His aura is akin to a bonfire, and when Asuma has been angry before "stones in the bonfire" has been used (when we first asked permission to get the Arachnid Scroll).

I interpret this as Asuma being angry and going against his better nature. His anger (the stones) leads him to doing/acting in ways that go against his essence (the bonfire). He'll regret it later, but people do things they regret all the time. Sometimes it seems like the least worst option they have.

faflec · Nov 13, 2021

Velorien said:
"What's the Will of Fire, huh?" Sarutobi took a drag of his cigarette, then let the smoke billow upward. "That's a big question. There's a whole philosophy wrapped up in those three little words.

"The First Hokage, the creator of the shinobi world as you know it, was the one who came up with it, and he summed it up like this:

"The meaning of life is love. Love is the will to protect. The will to protect is the Will of Fire, which warms your comrades and illuminates your path even as it burns your enemies."

"Actually," Nara said in a flat pedantic voice, "it originated with Murakumo no Hisashi, an early Fire Country daimyō. The Senju looted his writings during the sacking of Hakujō in the Warring Clans period."

"You mean a civilian came up with the Will of Fire?" Yamanaka demanded. "No way."

Nara shrugged. "If it makes you feel better, Murakumo didn't manage to accomplish anything with it. He ruled for less than a decade before he died of daimyō natural causes."

"What do you mean?" Noburi asked.

Inoue-sensei was the one to answer. "I know this one. Was he assassinated by a ninja?"

Nara nodded. "He is only remembered today because the Senju came across his work when they destroyed his castle."

"So gotta ask," Noburi said, "how do you live in the Land of Trees and More Trees, and decide that fire is your go-to symbol for protection?"

Yamanaka snorted. "I ask myself the same thing every day. Or I would if I cared, which is close enough."

Everyone looked at Nara.

He gave a put-upon sigh. "How troublesome. Well, Murakumo lived in a time of war, and he wanted to tell people that their protective impulses were right and proper in and of themselves, but that taking them too far led to everybody getting hurt, and risked destroying everything in the end, like a wildfire annihilating a forest."

Sir Stompy · Nov 13, 2021

eaglejarl said:
The user takes 2 mental stress per round. They do not take mental stress from any other source, nor suffer from mental Consequence penalties. However, the technique cannot be manually terminated. The user will continue to take mental stress until they are Taken Out.

When the user is Taken Out, roll 1d10 + 15. This is the number of steps on the time ladder necessary to regain consciousness.

Paperclipped said:
I'll give an analysis of the numbers tomorrow morning, but this part specifically is very crippling. There's a small chance (~30%) that the ninja wakes up within a relevant timescale (a year or less), and is otherwise effectively dead. There's no way to carefully draw on FS for combat without most likely effectively dying.

This is a stark contrast from what I understand to be the last version of the Ultimate Technique (The Best Laid Schemes), which allowed for a careful drawing on FS in exchange for mental stress, and a hefty hammerblow at the end that would make you regret the attempt. In this version, unless it overflowed your stress track even after you took a Severe, you wouldn't be "Taken Out" by it and presumably go into a coma. This led to two modes for the Frozen Skein in combat, one where you use it carefully and sparingly, and another where you go all out, accepting that you'll likely be dead to the world afterwards in a coma (presumably with GM discretion on whether you wake up in 3 months or half a century).

I might suggest a modification where if the User can reduce the time steps spent unconscious by FS AB if they can spend a Round motionless and concentrating at the end of the technique. The implication is that's impossible if there's enemies left alive.

That gives more incentive to get FS to a high level. There's some in universe justification that higher leveled FS users are better at dealing with the consequences of FSUT. If we stat things out with Keiko at FS 30, let's say she kills the jounin in 2 Rounds and the rest of her team mops up over the next 2 Rounds. That means she has the time to end the Technique. Then she rolls 11+d10 steps on the time ladder. That means instead of 3 months minimum unconscious, and a 30% chance of returning to the quest, she has a few days minimum and a 70% chance of returning to the quest.

If that seems too broken you could reduce it to FS AB/2 or something in that ballpark.

Paperclipped · Nov 13, 2021

Sir Stompy said:
There's some in universe justification that higher leveled FS users are better at dealing with the consequences of FSUT. If we stat things out with Keiko at FS 30, let's say she kills the jounin in 2 Rounds and the rest of her team mops up over the next 2 Rounds.

There's a really excellent justification for being able to use FS in combat -- namely this infopost (with minor seemingly-unrelated chapter content).

_The_Bomb · Nov 13, 2021

Velorien said:
Akane.

The rain stopped. The clouds parted.

awww

eaglejarl said:
Chapter 459: Lessons
"Good evening, Haru. Please, have a seat," Hazō said, gesturing to the chair across from him.

Oh, I was waiting for this day to come. Not eagerly, like I was with the Naruto GS plan, but like a Doctor's Appointment that I keep pushing off.

eaglejarl said:
Surprise flickered across Haru's face. "If we're being frank, My Lord, my impression is that you weren't particularly upset. I'm being punished because Lady Akane was upset and you followed her wishes. You were just going to tell me to be more careful, perhaps scold me, but you were doing it because the Hokage ordered you to."

He's not completely wrong. If we're being generous, Akane reminded us of our failure and brought our attention to something we care about. But it's complicated, because, well....

"Hazō is also insane by any reasonable metric. His beliefs and values spin on a dime. He reviles Orochimaru as a monster and hates Akatsuki for killing his stepfather, and gets excited as a puppy at the idea of working with either. He forgets that murdering yakuza is bad. He gets TYS bonuses to positive social skills despite the fact that his TYS points come from eldritch weirdness rather than personal growth by processing trauma." - Vel on discord

As a side, I'm glad that Haru trusts us enough to actually speak frankly with us when we tell him he can. That's some serious growth from where we started with him.

eaglejarl said:
I've started noticing that politics is a lot like taijutsu—it's nice if you're bigger and stronger and have more reach than your opponent but the person who wins is generally the one who chooses the environment, controls the range, and stays within the appropriate engagement category. If you're fighting a striker, grapple. If you're fighting a grappler, strike. That kind of thing.

Ah, what a ninja way of explaining politics.

eaglejarl said:
Right. Iju-sensei had always been a weird one, his techniques scoffed at by more traditional instructors. Unsurprising that they hadn't made it to Fire. "Sorry, I forgot that's not from here. Meia Lua de Compasso is the full name. One of my instructors made it up and it became his signature move. It's something like a roundhouse but it's done from a side-on stance with the back leg and it covers a full 180. You need to lean down as a counterbalance and there's a tendency to put your hands on the ground for balance. Iju-sensei always told me to keep my hands up and be ready to roll away from an attack."

Aka the "Spinning Hook Kick" in Tae Kwon Do. It's a fun one, especially if you already have momentum from a previous kick. Only thing that hurts worse than taking one of these in sparring is if your opponent lands a back kick instead.

eaglejarl said:
Hazō cursed silently. He'd been making that work until he accidentally pointed up his foreign birth. Damn, if only his leg would stop aching so he could focus.

Gentle reminder from the QMs that our physical consequences have an impact on social rolls.

eaglejarl said:
"The same applies between countries. If Earth Country wasn't a giant desert then Rock ninja wouldn't be trying to steal our land." He shook his head. "Honestly, part of me wonders if it would make sense for us to take that fertility jutsu and see if we can turn some Earth Country dirt into decent growing land. It's just an idle thought—there's a whole raft of problems with the idea that would need to be ironed out before I would even dream of approaching the Hokage for permission—but I think that if it could be made to work then it might have prevented the Collapse and the current war."

Haru looked surprised. A muscle in his cheek twitched as he started to say something but he kept his mouth closed and simply listened attentively.

Oh Hazō. Please never bring the idea of helping your murderous enemies grow food instead of killing them again. Even as you frame it as a way of saving Leaf lives, it's still....

eaglejarl said:
He shifted, arranging his legs more carefully to reduce stress on the joints, and then had to think for a moment to remember where he was.

Uhhhhhhhhh.........

eaglejarl said:
"Yes sir." His voice remained almost completely calm as he said, "I've had a great deal of time to think since you stripped my ninja status from me, sir. The civilians want nothing to do with me. They know that your wrath might descend at any moment and they don't want to be collateral damage if it does. Also, they still think of me as a ninja even though Lord Noburi is assuring that I'm no stronger or faster than they are and I can't use jutsu against them. Not that I would—they are Gōketsu, even if they treat me like a pariah. My purpose is to protect them and raise them up."

"They treat you like—" Hazō shook his head, flicking the topic away. "Put a pin in that because I'm going to want to come back to it, but I'd like to stay on topic right now. You were saying?"

Wasn't Akane monitoring Haru's punishment? Why didn't she bring this to our attention?

eaglejarl said:
"The Gōketsu mission is to make life better for everyone, sir. Yakuza might be scum who harm their community but that doesn't mean that killing them accords with the Will of Fire or the Way of the Gōketsu. I should have found a different path." He shrugged. "I could probably just have bribed them, at least in the beginning before I gave all my money to that town."

"Wait, what?"

"You weren't aware, sir? Two, three months ago I withdrew all my money from the clan bank and gave it to the people of Tall Rock. It's a village about twenty miles northeast. I told them to use it for tools, or till'n'fills, or whatever. In retrospect it would have been better to leave them to their own devices and give the money to the Yakuza."

"I didn't know about that. You giving away your money, I mean."

Haru shrugged.

"You gave them all of it?"

Haru shrugged again. "What do I need money for? I've got a nice apartment to myself, there's plenty of good food whenever I want it, and I get clothes and seals and weapons for free. Advantages of being a clan ninja, sir."

"Wow. Good for you."

"Thank you, sir, although apparently I need money for bribes to Yakuza. I'll remember that for next time, sir."

One, Hazō is now reevaluating his opinion of Haru. Well, he would if he had any opinons beyond what the hive wants him to think. See earlier note on inconsistencies.

Two, like hell we're making you pay out of pocket for duty-related expenses. Draw up a budget and we'll allocate resources.

eaglejarl said:
Hazō gave his subordinate a bit of side-eye but the tone had been absolutely polite and respectful so there wasn't much to object to. "You said you've been thinking about this?"

Let's not pretend like everything Haru has been offhandedly mentioning hasn't been a calculated move on his part. He probabaly spent a long time thinking about this while chipping stone. Wait, didn't we conjure that stone from nowhere? We literally just established that conjured stone will disappear after thirty seconds. Does it last longer if we pull it from the ground? No, it's not like there's convinent granite deposits everywhere we use MEW. Hmmm.....

faflec · Nov 13, 2021

_The_Bomb said:
Let's not pretend like everything Haru has been offhandedly mentioning hasn't been a calculated move on his part. He probabaly spent a long time thinking about this while chipping stone. Wait, didn't we conjure that stone from nowhere? We literally just established that conjured stone will disappear after thirty seconds. Does it last longer if we pull it from the ground? No, it's not like there's convinent granite deposits everywhere we use MEW. Hmmm.....

MEW pulled up from the ground is permanent granite. It's how Zabuza was able to recognize our base after we fled from him in Iron.

eaglejarl · Nov 13, 2021

Paperclipped said:
Well, that rules out a hypothesis then. Thanks!

Not...quite ruled out.

Paperclipped said:
This is a stark contrast from what I understand to be the last version of the Ultimate Technique (The Best Laid Schemes), which allowed for a careful drawing on FS in exchange for mental stress, and a hefty hammerblow at the end that would make you regret the attempt. In this version, unless it overflowed your stress track even after you took a Severe, you wouldn't be "Taken Out" by it and presumably go into a coma. This led to two modes for the Frozen Skein in combat, one where you use it carefully and sparingly, and another where you go all out, accepting that you'll likely be dead to the world afterwards in a coma (presumably with GM discretion on whether you wake up in 3 months or half a century).

Yup. The idea of the Mori Ultimate was always supposed to be that it's a huge power boost but almost always fatal. The prior version didn't model that very well, which is why we came up with this new version.

faflec said:
@eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail Is the Frozen Skein (the levelable skill) relevant for anything besides the Ultimate Technique? I know the rulesdoc says it gives mechanical benefits for bad plans, but IIRC we've only ever used it once during the Hot Springs Incident (and we didn't even have the skill back then).

It's supposed to be but we haven't used it that way so we should do something about it.

_The_Bomb said:
Him and Kei were first into the room last chapter. Right?

They went into the next room over, I believe.

_The_Bomb said:
Did....did we just win a verbal argument with Tsunade about who could be consdiered a medic? What on earth is going on here?

That was Asuma who called her out. I should make that clearer.

_The_Bomb said:
Aka the "Spinning Hook Kick" in Tae Kwon Do.

I was actually thinking of the Capoeira move.

_The_Bomb · Nov 13, 2021

faflec said:
MEW pulled up from the ground is permanent granite. It's how Zabuza was able to recognize our base after we fled from him in Iron.

Yeah but his exactly are we "pulling" and what constitutes ground?

Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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