So, the problem that I have with selling FOOM from last time still remains: right now we only have an unproven, untested flash of insight that could be wrong just as easily as it could be right. In fact all we have IC is the idea that if physical fortitude can grow without limits a la Gai then mental fortitude should be able to do the same, and since then we've been meditating a bunch instead of doing other training and it hasn't really gotten us anything yet - indeed, we haven't even caught up to where we would otherwise have been if we just kept normal training.
This boils down to how well our characters understand the math behind their abilities on their character spreadsheets. If the behind the scenes math can be deduced IC I would assume either Kei or Shikamaru would be capable of checking the math.
I'm increasingly becoming of the opinion that we should have a 1 on 1 (well, Snowflake and her sisters can come too) conversation with Kei so we don't break the spirit of Asuma's orders when we discuss the realpolitik of our situation.
I could see Asuma still believing us, but it would be a provisional belief without a proper sense of scope. We might hype it up as the secret sauce to making the next Jiraiya, but we can't back those claims up so all we could impart is that we expect - if our assumptions are correct and nothing goes wrong - that this is extraordinarily valuable rather than merely valuable.
Valuable gets us a pat on the head and some goodies in return, it doesn't pull the kind of value we need either now to escape Orochimaru's clutches or in abstract to make the bargain worth the price.
Before we pitch it to Asuma we can talk about it with Kei at least as a plan A 1/2. We need options and from what we've seen from the most recent chapter our creative solution of surgery was unanimously denied.
I also think you're misunderstanding what Asuma means when he says that Orochimaru is more valuable than Hazou. He doesn't mean 'which of you has produced the greatest value in the past' or 'which of you can I expect the most value out of in the future', he means 'which of you can keep Leaf from being ground under the heel of Rock and Cloud'. FOOM doesn't solve that, it doesn't operate anywhere near fast enough to make a difference in WWIV. Even if he bought into the hype completely he still wouldn't be able to choose Hazou over Orochimaru because FOOM doesn't solve the problem where Leaf existentially needs Orochimaru. At best, the most wild idea I can think of to make this work, is if we ask Asuma to deliberately throw WWIV, give Rock and Cloud what they want, and hunker down with FOOM to train new S-Rankers over the next decade before striking back. It's a plan that might work. It's a plan I can scarcely imagine Asuma taking except as the absolute last resort. If reality is a little more kind than I expect we could maybe make that work, and get rid of Orochimaru that way.
(side-note, another potential end of the Oro crisis is if we get that top-secret long-term mission, but I don't think we'd need to sell FOOM to swing that. Probably. If we do then I'll reconsider since, as you say, staying alive is imperative)
In addition to my post above yours, there's far too many variables for my liking to continue sitting on FOOM when it could be used to help out at a critical point in the war if the war drags on too long.
This is another point we can talk about with Kei with her conclusions about how long the war will rage on. Those calculations won't be definitive but they are better than assuming we already know how the war will play out. We can also ask her to estimate how long it would take to use FOOM to power up genin, chunin, and jonin, and, based on the timelines, how those fighters might impact the war when they are ready versus sending them out as is.
Kei was able to calculate the overall economic situation in the Liberator Village by observing the commerce within the village as well as sitting on a hill overlooking said village to see the caravans come and go. If anyone is capable of telling us whether or not selling FOOM is even feasible, let alone worthwhile, it's her.
Kei might very well decide selling FOOM cannot be done for any number of reasons for clan secret importance, the logistical impossibilities, or any other number of unknown causes. I am fine with that outcome because that will mean to me that it has been absolutely exhausted.
Back in the abstract considerations, you're right that having more FOOMed Leaf fighters greatly enhances Leaf's ability to succeed and that as Leaf-nin we want Leaf to succeed. But in the set of all possible 'Leaf wins' outcomes there are outcomes where the Goketsu are in a position to achieve Uplift and outcomes where we aren't, and Uplift is our one true master above even The Village Hidden In The Leaves. If we have an action that meaningfully increases P('we achieve Uplift' | 'Leaf wins') without meaningfully reducing P('Leaf wins') then we can expect the aggregate odds of P('we achieve Uplift') to increase, which makes that action a good move. Put in practical terms, if we can get Leaf to win without sharing FOOM, and not sharing FOOM makes us proportionately more important and powerful in Leaf, then not sharing FOOM can be a good move for our ultimate goal. The particulars, of course, differ, and I wager your opinion is that we lose too much P('Leaf wins') for not enough P('we achieve Uplift' | 'Leaf wins') and so keeping it secret is a bad move, but if so then we're at least on the same page and just quibbling over whose model of reality is more accurate.
I don't believe we should consider Leaf and Uplift separate issues. Our goal should be to convert Leaf to the ideology of Uplift by working with our neighbors rather than effectively bullying them into following Uplift. To all of the ninjas of the world who only value strength if we come in as an S-ranker and demand they implement our policies they will do so as long as they think we are watching them. To them, our policies would be the same as Pain arriving in Leaf, establishing himself as Omnikage, and then demanding everyone self-flagellate for one hour daily to better understand each other through shared misery. Once we become too powerful to ignore we lose the opportunity to convert people without the implicit threat of violence.
I would much rather have Uplift spread as the village system did: we create a new, better way of doing things so everyone else must follow along or get left behind. Peace must make people happier than war or all one can achieve outside their dictator sphere of influence is an armistice. With all of Leaf powerful enough to repel all human threats we can begin working on long term problems like the declining population, chakra beasts, and necromancy research.
I also believe you're overlooking or undervaluing how important being the guy who won WWIV would be. Asuma would become our new BFF and unless we committed a string of treasons we would still be in his good graces. There would also be all of the goodwill we would accrue from all of the common soldiers because we would be directly responsible for making sure more of them came back home alive.
WRT our differences on the odds of the war, I completely agree that we disagree on how dangerous this war is for us personally. Jiraiya dying was completely unexpected and now Leaf will be facing multiple opponents of his caliber and the Goketsu have to deal with Oro personally. I err on the side of caution because our best line of defense died and now our second is under potentially existential threat. Would you change your position if Kei posits that, barring new information, Leaf as it currently stands would lose the war?
Uplift is taking that, the worst possible world, a world writing the story of senseless oblivion, and pulling it out of the void. Uplift is creating cooperate-cooperate out of defect-defect, it's the bucking of the trend of sabotage, paranoia, and hatred. It's the dream of a humanity united against the darkness, being made manifest before your very eyes. It's the trend of things getting better instead of worse, of liberty and human dignity emerging from the muck and grime of serfdom. It's the march of technology, it's children not losing their parents, it's villages not going silent in the middle of the night as an apex predator snuffs out all life within. It's the counterargument, a story of virtue prevailing over vice, of light emerging from the darkest places, a declaration that humanity is fundamentally good and that we can make happy endings if we want to.
How can we sincerely preach cooperate-cooperate when we do not have Hazou proactively go out of his way to begin cooperating-cooperating? To convince a world that has mostly seen defection rewarded and compliance enforced at sword point that improvement is possible requires taking a risk by trusting people outside of our family. However, we do not have to make tough choices on who to trust based on how strong they are. FOOM allows us instead to select those who are trustworthy and make
them strong. By selling FOOM properly we will never have to make decisions like Asuma had to, of choosing the strong yet wicked over the loyal yet weaker in the face of annihilation.
To me, to achieve the end goal you have set out (and for what it's worth 90% matches my own preferred outcome) we must share our light, not just enlarge our own. No one fire, not even the sun, can dispel all shadows. It is by giving our gifts to others that our light spreads, not as a bonfire soaring higher but as a sea of torches banishing the darkness.
One man with one million branches can only hoard his light in one fire or die as he tries to spread it around himself. One million trusted men each with one branch can light up a whole country. As the light spreads some of those still in the darkness will look in to see how much better the people in the light live and choose to offer their own branches to join the light-bearers. Others will sneer at the fools making themselves easy targets and strike from the shadows just as they have been conditioned to do. Those defectors will become the minority in time as those within the light identify the malefactors and then erase them.
One million can become one billion in time.
So to recap, as it pertains to our current situation, our sales pitch for FOOM is really really weak right now when we don't have tangible proof that it works as we expect, nor proof that it reaches the heights of value that we expect in due time. This means that I expect it to pull very little in the way of meaningful sway with Asuma (oh sure he'll look on us with favour and reward us handsomely, but nothing truly valuable like banishing Orochimaru or getting a 'get out of killbox free' card) and thus is of minimal value to our current crisis. The question of whether we should sell it just in general hangs as a separate question, and I think we will likely agree to disagree unless we go into a really really deep dive of our respective understandings of the mfd world and our thought processes and stuff, because that question ultimately comes down to which side of the 'how does this impact odds of Uplift' equation is stronger.
We need to include Kei in this type of decision making process, not just because of her analytical skills but also because we need to respect her agency. This is exactly the type of calculations her bloodline was designed to tackle and as a person she needs to feel as a part of our family again just like the good old days when we were running for our lives and this was her primary role.
Your hypothesis that selling FOOM is a waste of time does not need to be tested by having Hazou ask Asuma, but by having Hazou run the idea by Kei first. Our clan is willing to contemplate any solution after Hazou advocated voluntary surgery. I am not saying that selling FOOM needs to be
the solution, but only
a solution if they do not like any other ideas we come up with or if they unanimously prefer it.
Personally I still oppose the idea and do not think it constitutes a meaningful solution to our crisis. Rather than having a digital wallet full of Bitcoins worth tons of money, what we have is more like a Bitcoin wallet before Bitcoin was worth anything, and the surgeon doesn't accept Bitcoin anyways so fretting about whether to part with our wallet is a bit of a moot point because it won't get us out of our situation in the first place.
More like (from my point of view), based on your prior paragraphs, that the wallet (FOOM) has an indeterminant value (when sold to Asuma). However, I argue that we have a way of possibly estimating the value of our wallet since our sister Kei has an understanding of how valuable obscure products can be, doubly so because she learned Wheeler-Dealer while Hazou does not know such a stunt. If the surgeon does not accept Bitcoin as currency then Kei can help us find a proverbial moneychanger service (Bitcoin -> actual coins -> surgery (FOOM -> actual goddam help from Asuma -> eventually killing Oro)). Furthermore, there is no downside to consulting with her because she ultimately wants what is best for us as our sister and she is already conditioned to entertain outlandish ideas. Letting the trusted consultant have all of the information she can is just good business sense. Discarding one possible solution because we think we might know better than her when evaluations are what she was created to do, is not.