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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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faflec said:
Yes, but the issue I was considering was the fact that we're using the Air Domes on a non-flat Earth surface, and that we're also using them on a surface that (previously) was a giant opening. The consequent worry is that people will adopt Air Domes to being used on non-traditional surfaces, eventually leading to Skywalkers.

Just me being paranoid, ignore me :p
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It takes lateral thinking to get to that point.

Like, if you ask them what you can use a kitchen knife for, most people will say "it's to cut food." And never went beyond that.

Hazō would think "it's a very sharp object." And then ask himself all the applications that he can use a very sharp thing for, some of which had nothing to do with the original purpose.
 
Voting is closed.
Adhoc vote count started by eaglejarl on Aug 19, 2018 at 9:23 AM, finished with 603 posts and 31 votes.
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eaglejarl said:
How do you shoot out from inside an Air Dome? That's pretty much the point -- pointy things don't go through it.


First off, I don't see why you would want your safe path to be more than 4m wide, so one trap should do it. Second, it is physically impossible to tile these things. Say you build a depression 8m wide that you want to cover with 2 Force Walls. You put the left hand element of FW 1 on the left side of the depression. The right hand element would need to be suspended in free space in the middle of the depression -- can't do it. You'd need to have a post or something in the middle of the pit to put the second element on, and that means they aren't tiled.

Alternatively, you could try doing it with angled force walls. The left-hand element of FW1 goes on the wall of the depression, the right-hand element goes on the ground in the middle so that the wall slopes down. The second force wall does the same thing from the other direction. You have now tiled the force walls (or come arbitrarily close, at least), but at the expense of making the trap very obvious.

Just put them close together, separated by strips of ground about 4" wide so that it's extremely unlikely for people to pass through them.


I don't know. I'll talk to the others when they're around, but it won't be before close of voting.
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Shooting out from the roof would be achieved by disrupting the air dome by moving one of the seals. The N ranged attackers would sync their initiatives - the first (or a dedicated cohort) would break the air dome at the start of roof attack round, and the last of the round would initiate a new one through pre-prepared LBF (obviously limited in number and might interfere slightly with dodging), or two cohorts could initiate it.

As for the trap distribution - we are in total agreement on application, so I don't care what we end up calling it.
 
RE: STR Comp.

Lets find out how many possible Red Team Kurenai's there will be since that basically gives us the answer.

I will take as an axiom that:

1)No squads will be paired up with previous squads
2) Team Kurenai will try to convince their team not to show up.


So we have


K __ __

There are 9 options for slot two (cannot be K, or anyone on their Round 1 team)
There are 6 options for slot three (cannot be K, or Slot two, or their Round 1 Teams)

Order doesn't matter here, so lets not count a differently arranged pile of letters as a different team. Divide by 2 to account for this.

We have exactly 27 possible Team Kurenai's then. I'll just start listing them out.

1) Kurenai , Touma1, Asuma1
2) Kurenai, Touma2, Asuma1
3) Kurenai, Touma3, Asuma1
4)Kurenai, Touma1, Asuma2
5)Kurenai, Touma2, Asuma2
6) Kurenai, Touma3, Asuma2
7) Kurenai, Touma1, Asuma3
8)Kurenai, Touma2, Asuma3
9)Kurenai, Touma3, Asuma3

10) Kurenai , Earth1, Asuma1
11) Kurenai, Earth2, Asuma1
12) Kurenai, Earth3, Asuma1
13)Kurenai, Earth1, Asuma2
14)Kurenai, Earth2, Asuma2
15) Kurenai, Earth3, Asuma2
16) Kurenai, Earth1, Asuma3
17)Kurenai, Earth2, Asuma3
18)Kurenai, Earth3, Asuma3


19) Kurenai , Touma1, Earth1
20) Kurenai, Touma2, Earth 1
21) Kurenai, Touma3, Earth1
22)Kurenai, Touma1, Earth2
23)Kurenai, Touma2, Earth2
24) Kurenai, Touma3, Earth2
25) Kurenai, Touma1, Earth3
26)Kurenai, Touma2, Earth3
27)Kurenai, Touma3, Earth3

Well, there you go:

As I have written all 27 down up there without using the actual Team names, thats it.

Other evidence:

1) Earth Team: Panashe beat their "Highest Alertness" 3 times. (Modulo some malus for being underground). Mugiwara probs isn't on here: these guys were tracker nin IIRC, so this doesn't seem sensible to me.

2)Likewise: Blue Team Asuma were scrublords so no special teams there.

3) Nakano Ryouchi is a Red Boi next Round. Moreover, we punched his lights out. So he was on Earth Team.

4)Shika said that Auntie Ren foresaw this because shes awesome like that. Likewise he stated she would probably set it up so that a lot of her detractors were on our team.

Specifically Shika says
eaglejarl said:
Coincidentally, all of the Mist genin who are blue team in this round, and therefore red team in the next, are from factions opposed to the Mizukage's family. Make of that what you will.
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5) Auntie Ren is trying to set it up so we actually look really good. Thus, she is not going to send us a pile of unstoppable foes.

Proposition: Likely that one of Earth 2, Earth 3 is also Mist.

If we are to meaningfully defeat Ren's detractors in such a way, there should perhaps be more than 3 of them.

The other of Earth 2 or Earth 3 is also a scratch squad of Nakano + 2 others.

Now, this can be avoided if the 2 others are Mist Nin. But given that there were 12 Mist Nin, I'm going to assume there are 4 teams of 3. If we assume we have a Team of 2 and some solos then to do the rest of this I have to do some really annoying counting bullshit. So I'm removing this possibility.

Conclusion1: Mugiwara + Team Walking Anime Cliche Disaster (Waterfall) is probably on Blue in Round 2. So Hotsprings and Waterfall likely aren't coming to the party.

Conclusion2: Of the Unknown Earth and Asuma guys, they're very likely to be either Mist or Nobodies.



Master Conclusion:

Team K will... likely get a pile of Rando's from Round 1 Blues. Most likely from Touma + Asuma, but they could get a team from either of those and then the Nakano squad.

(Perhaps more likely as well since then on the QMside you don't have to fudge up as many new ninja wholesale for us to fight.)

If they do, we'll basically be fighting all the named people we just fought with the Earth guys +/- Nakano squad and +/- another 1-2 squads of Mist Genin or Rando's.

(This has a certain interesting symmetry to it.)

Even if Kurenai doesn't show up and everyone else from their red team does, we're still fine. Just switch all the signs above to pluses.

I don't see any immediately crazy bloodline synergy, and this is basically what we planned for. Any other crazy skill synergy will hopefully be mitigated by having STR split themselves up and by 'The Floor Is Goo'-ing a pile of their ninja in the opening salvo, and negating any advantages the Underground Team has by making them fight the two Pangolins with (likely) the most experience in underground combat.

All in all, I think we did the best we could, modulo some details. Lets hope it was enough.

RNJASHIN SAVE US!
 
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Roomba said:
Time to die.
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Time to bet.

I am ~70% sure that we will lose. Non-mutually-exclusive conditional probabilities:
  • 30%: In battle. Cause: Raw opposing power.
  • 20%: In battle. Cause: Enemy agency/creativity.
  • 20%: Before battle. Cause: Shikamaru's inability to convince STR to follow our strategy.
  • 15%: Before battle. Cause: Our inability to build all traps.
  • 5%: Before/during battle. Cause: OCP (proctors/Kages shenanigans)
  • 15%: During break day. Cause: Inability of temporary teammates to keep plan secret.
  • 5%: During break day. Cause: Sabotage/OCP.
 
Kiba said:
It takes lateral thinking to get to that point.

Like, if you ask them what you can use a kitchen knife for, most people will say "it's to cut food." And never went beyond that.

Hazō would think "it's a very sharp object." And then ask himself all the applications that he can use a very sharp thing for, some of which had nothing to do with the original purpose.
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... And it turns out, that at the end of our adventure, HJPEV was inside of each of us all along.
 
I predict that the overall battle will ultimately be decided by the first two Rounds or so of either given combat scenario.

I mean, its in the plan name.
 
faflec said:
could we have Pangolins and their chakra costs put into Keiko's character sheet and/or sticky [the below] to an informational post?
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Ye

Noumero said:
@eaglejarl, @Velorien, @OliWhail, did we identify the following as belonging to R1 Blue Teams?
  • Team Mugiwara
  • Team Chinin
  • Team Gensou
  • The Wakahisa (how many aside from Kiri?)
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Yeah, this is on my part of the QM plate and I've been slipping because of issues with new meds - HOPEFULLY should be able to address this and other info later today

Noumero said:
Time to bet.

I am ~70% sure that we will lose. Non-mutually-exclusive conditional probabilities:
  • 30%: In battle. Cause: Raw opposing power.
  • 20%: In battle. Cause: Enemy agency/creativity.
  • 20%: Before battle. Cause: Shikamaru's inability to convince STR to follow our strategy.
  • 15%: Before battle. Cause: Our inability to build all traps.
  • 5%: Before/during battle. Cause: OCP (proctors/Kages shenanigans)
  • 15%: During break day. Cause: Inability of temporary teammates to keep plan secret.
  • 5%: During break day. Cause: Sabotage/OCP.
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Prediction markets in the thread, anybody? :p
 
Noumero said:
I am ~50% sure that we will lose the battle long before getting to that stage, but agree with regards to first two rounds in principle.
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Yes, I have noticed.

I personally consider us getting to the actual combat to be a foregone conclusion(we have continually pestered ISC about this, They will deliver. Jiraiya and Ren actually need this to happen, they will exert pressure, etc.). I also think our relative prep is not that bad when you consider this is happening in an area roughly the size of a track and field, and these are ~9 enhanced humans doing the preparations with some Pangolin help. We will probably cut it close, and it is possible that the outermost layer beyond the first wall has minimal traps in it or something.

Once we get to the combat, there are two factors that come into play in the first round or two that could swing things drastically

1) Does "Everywhere is now Goo"-Trap work, and if so, does it catch ~6 people (or more)?
2) Does my assumption that Pangolins are ludicrously overpowered in underground combat hold, and if so do they successfully defeat the Underground Assault (~9-15 ninja)?

Depending on how those two play out, we can be anywhere from "We are so fucked." to "Summon Panta to inform Jiraiya he should begin planning the afterparty post haste. Here is a list of suggested party guests."

OliWhail said:
Yeah, this is on my part of the QM plate and I've been slipping because of issues with new meds - HOPEFULLY should be able to address this and other info later today
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I'll note that (by the analysis in the above post on this page) if you end up telling us that Mugiwara/Gensou are on Red next round (implying they were on Blue the previous round) I will be calling bullshit fairly hard :p
 
OliWhail said:
Ye
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Sweet.

So, uh...kinda spoons-intensive but not really request: Could we have the sidestory/informational lists organized? The last 4 chapters of CftG, for instance, aren't slotted in the right spot; and the Informational list...honestly it's a mess. I'm perfectly willing to sort it out if you'll let me, and give you a list so you can change things?
 
MMKII said:
I personally consider us getting to the actual combat to be a foregone conclusion(we have continually pestered ISC about this, They will deliver. Jiraiya and Ren actually need this to happen, they will exert pressure, etc.). I also think our relative prep is not that bad when you consider this is happening in an area roughly the size of a track and field, and these are ~9 enhanced humans doing the preparations with some Pangolin help. We will probably cut it close, and it is possible that the outermost layer beyond the first wall has minimal traps in it or something.

Once we get to the combat, there are two factors that come into play in the first round or two that could swing things drastically

1) Does "Everywhere is now Goo"-Trap work, and if so, does it catch ~6 people (or more)?
2) Does my assumption that Pangolins are ludicrously overpowered in underground combat hold, and if so do they successfully defeat the Underground Assault (~9-15 ninja)?

Depending on how those two play out, we can be anywhere from "We are so fucked." to "Summon Panta to inform Jiraiya he should begin planning the afterparty post haste. Here is a list of suggested party guests."
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Oh, I do think there's a very decent probability of us getting to the actual combat. I'm just not sure whether we'll still have a fighting chance at that point. If ISC fails at manipulating STR, if temporary teammates give away our collaboration, if we significantly overestimated our trap-making abilities (either speed or skill), we'll still get to "fight", if by "fight" you mean "get curb-stomped". My estimate for —

P(successful_manipulation) x P(successful_OpSec) x P(appropriate_defenses)

— is significantly lower than 95%.

Would you like to make your own probability estimates? Just for fun.
 
Noumero said:
Oh, I do think there's a very decent probability of us getting to the actual combat. I'm just not sure whether we'll still have a fighting chance at that point. If ISC fails at manipulating STR, if temporary teammates give away our collaboration, if we significantly overestimated our trap-making abilities (either speed or skill), we'll still get to "fight", if by "fight" you mean "get curb-stomped". My estimate for —

P(successful_manipulation) x P(successful_OpSec) x P(appropriate_defenses)

— is significantly lower than 95%.

Would you like to make your own probability estimates? Just for fun.
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I would consider

P(successful_manipulation \cap successful_OpSec) ~ .95
P(appropriate_defenses) ~ 1
P(successful_Pangolin)~.8
P(success_Goo) ~ .5

I would then guesstimate our overall probability of success with just the above panning out to be something like ~50%. There are also things the enemy can do to fuck us over, but there are tactics we can do to give us an advantage. Overall I think this is skewed slightly in our favor so I'd give

P(Victory_combat) ~ 60% or so.


1)Reasons stated above, everyone is unconscious due to previous planning,meta guess that eaglejarl likely wants to write the Big Badass Fight, etc.
2) If you guesstimate that they can set ~1 trap per round or so and that a round is ~10-2seconds give or take, I think that two hours or so is sufficient to do what we need to do. Something on the order of a few hundred traps is all we need. This area is on the scale of a hundred meter radius, etc.


I do not consider Proctor Bullshit to be a very viable failure node as long as we do not test the rules beyond a bit of a stretch on the "Simulationist T&I" bit.

But even in that scenario (We win combat but lose by proctor fiat) I think we can simply have Jiraiya browbeat the shit out of them. It looks very bad if we roundhouse kick ~30 genin into the ground and then Mist is like "Yeah -1000 for not sitting around in a death trap waiting to be punched even though you detected enemy action". If it was viable for us to write warnings of lethal traps to skirt the rules then that objection is certainly true because realistically no one is EVER just going to sit around while an attack is going on. Mist cannot keep a straight face on that objection IMO since Jiraiya will eat them alive (also, Ren is setting this all up so we can get to the finals too. I would not be surprised if she pulls strings to prevent proctor bullshit especially if we a) Don't do anything but toe that one rule a lil bit and b) actually win).

We'll see how RNJashin wants to play this.
 
Roomba said:
As an immediate observation, I'd like to point out that the "surrounded by idiots" rule applies to us just as well as it does to our enemies.
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Sure, but problem: enemies are leaders of the idiots in question. If smart opponents realize that they're being played, they will meet very little resistance when attempting to convince their idiot-teammates of that.

Unless I misunderstood your point...?
MMKII said:
P(Victory_combat) ~ 60% or so.
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Huh. Surprisingly close to my estimate for winning the fight conditional on not losing it preemptively. I suppose this:
P(successful_manipulation \cap successful_OpSec) ~ .95
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Is the main point of contention.

Problem: Everyone will wake up a few hours before R2 begins one way or another, and then have no less than two hours to discuss and plan. Say everything up to that point goes according to plan: morons wake up first, get utterly convinced to follow ISC's plan with little to no doubts, nobody questions temporary teammates, etc. But then team leaders and intelligence-bloodlines wake up to the resultant mess, and what do they do? I'm not sure.

Are they tricked by ISC too? Are they peer-pressured to follow ISC's plan? Or do they veto it and forbid their teammates from attending? Do they use remaining time to out-social ISC or intellectually eviscerate/catastrophically improve their plan? Do they get assigned to our R1 temporary teammates and interrogate them?

Or do proctors wake them up earlier? Do they suspect that something is wrong and covertly interrogate temporary teammates themselves, then inform STR of our plan? I am not 99% confident that this doesn't happen.

After multiplying all of that, I don't get 95% at all.

Regarding the meta-reason of EagleJarl wanting to write the battle: Velorien is liable to crush his hopes on that front, given an opportunity. I don't think it's going to save us.

Regarding proctor bullshit: By "proctor/Kages shenanigans" I meant some kind of extreme sabotage that preemptively dooms us, not post-factum rulings. Releasing us five minutes before battle begins, giving us a non-repaired facility, confiscating all our seals, forbidding Pangolins, etc. I don't think it's going to be any of the possibilities I stated in the previous sentence (they are too explicit/bullshit), but I'm not 99% confident that there's nothing similar they could do. 5% seems roughly right.
 
If ISC fails manipulation in a mode they can identify, the plan should revert to ISC+co defecting immediately, either to reinforce facilities or to gather pangolins for a rampage.

These are also win scenarios for us.
 
So, in a flash of inspiration, I decided to rewrite and truncate @Kiba's planmaking checklist in a more easily digestible format:

1. Other people have agency.
2. OPSEC, stupid.
3. Remember Hot Springs.
4. At least one idiot is going to try it.

Any other ideas?
 
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