Why did Shikamaru thinks that our victory is a given anyway?
Like the rest of our Fellow Leaf Genin, I do not think he truly understands that ~60% of our skillsets, synergies and loadouts are optimized for Murdering the Shit Out of Everything with Glorious Overkill.
Huh. Surprisingly close to my estimate for winning the fight conditional on not losing it preemptively. I suppose this:

Problem: Everyone will wake up a few hours before R2 begins one way or another, and then have no less than two hours to discuss and plan. Say everything up to that point goes according to plan: morons wake up first, get utterly convinced to follow ISC's plan with little to no doubts, nobody questions temporary teammates, etc. But then team leaders and intelligence-bloodlines wake up to the resultant mess, and what do they do? I'm not sure.

Are they tricked by ISC too? Are they peer-pressured to follow ISC's plan? Or do they veto it and forbid their teammates from attending? Do they use remaining time to out-social ISC or intellectually eviscerate/catastrophically improve their plan? Do they get assigned to our R1 temporary teammates and interrogate them?


Or do proctors wake them up earlier? Do they suspect that something is wrong and covertly interrogate temporary teammates themselves, then inform STR of our plan? I am not 99% confident that this doesn't happen.

After multiplying all of that, I don't get 95% at all.
I think my mental model of things is that all the social nin from Red Team One are going to be running around and helping with things on the plot front. Likewise, we have been given enough evidence that ISC is sufficiently motivated to make this succeed. A combination of these two along with our planned awakening order (easily manipulated people first)will suffice IMO.
Regarding the meta-reason of EagleJarl wanting to write the battle: Velorien is liable to crush his hopes on that front, given an opportunity. I don't think it's going to save us.
This was mostly a joke:p. I will note though that the Evilest QM seems to be pretty busy with IRL stuff of late.
Regarding proctor bullshit: By "proctor/Kages shenanigans" I meant some kind of extreme sabotage that preemptively dooms us, not post-factum rulings. Releasing us five minutes before battle begins, giving us a non-repaired facility, confiscating all our seals, forbidding Pangolins, etc. I don't think it's going to be any of the possibilities I stated in the previous sentence (they are too explicit/bullshit), but I'm not 99% confident that there's nothing similar they could do. 5% seems roughly right.
Well, that would be sorta problematic. I think we might not need this though. On one hand: they could do this. On the other hand: we're fighting ~30 Genin. If the Hivemind is ballparking success at ~60% or so, I think enemy leaders will be sufficiently biased to lower that down by quite a bit. As of the Kage update, pretty much everyone but Ren thought we would get turned into used gym socks by the end of Round 1. Round 1 data changes this, but I don't think it changes it to a large extent. Contextually, what we did was succeed at the start and snowball with our Drain + Summoner synergy. If they gang up on us at once, they might think this won't happen anyway. Like our allies, they don't really understand our capabilities.

I suppose my model of them could be a bit different.

Question: Can we buy out glassmakers to come to Konoha? Should we?
I want to hire the Telescope Merchant to come to Konoha!! We need these for Skytowers damnit, it should be state funded!!!

So, in a flash of inspiration, I decided to rewrite and truncate @Kiba's planmaking checklist in a more easily digestible format:

1. Other people have agency.
2. OPSEC, stupid.
3. Remember Hot Springs.
4. At least one idiot is going to try it.

Any other ideas?
Omega) Consider solving with explosives.


@eaglejarl @OliWhail @Velorien

BTW, after the big bad battle royale is over, and assuming we win, do we get another vote in the time immediately afterwards?

Mostly I'm asking because: We may be able to figure something out that will eliminate Team Kurenai et all afterall. Also, we will have to plan for the afterparty in this scenario as well. Guest lists are to be considered, how do we know we have enough Ryo on hand for the strippers, can we seduce Ami convince Ami to come, etc. These are important details for a party!
 
Excessive Paranoia is useless
Point: Acting on excessive paranoia is often counter productive.

See: Kabuto thing. Dude came off as pretty creepy, and we were right to suspect something fishy. Absolutely should not have accused him or hinted at any bullshittery though.
 
Point: Acting on excessive paranoia is often counter productive.

See: Kabuto thing. Dude came off as pretty creepy, and we were right to suspect something fishy. Absolutely should not have accused him or hinted at any bullshittery though.

Well changed it to counter productive. Mostly because the levels here are generally unhealthy to achieving our goals
 
So, in a flash of inspiration, I decided to rewrite and truncate @Kiba's planmaking checklist in a more easily digestible format:

1. Other people have agency.
2. OPSEC, stupid.
3. Remember Hot Springs.
4. At least one idiot is going to try it.

Any other ideas?
Meta-idea:

We should have Hazou spend a day copying the finalized version ~1000 times to internalize.
 
Point: Acting on excessive paranoia is often counter productive.

See: Kabuto thing. Dude came off as pretty creepy, and we were right to suspect something fishy. Absolutely should not have accused him or hinted at any bullshittery though.

The paranoia itself can be counterproductive as well. As a thread, we have a finite amount of spoons for creation and discussion of plans. Wasting them on delusions has a real cost.
 
Funniness aside, I don't think Hazou doing this would suffice to internalize these things. Well, some of them, at least.
How many times do you think he can produce a one page list in a day?

1000? 10,000?

If thats not enough, we could consider doing this ~100 times every night before bed or something until it sticks.

(EDIT: Maybe this could level Calligraphy too!)

I'm entirely serious here. This is not a massive priority, but if we can sink 10-30 XP into a Stunt or something that stops Hazou from massively fucking up (socially or otherwise) by taking something we've said too literally, doing it without applying contextual info first, sticking too closely to a plan instead of improvising, or just generally being untactful or not cautious in a situation where both are obviously required, etc. I would be entirely willing to pay that price.


The paranoia itself can be counterproductive as well. As a thread, we have a finite amount of spoons for creation and discussion of plans. Wasting them on delusions has a real cost.
You are quite correct.
 
I'm entirely serious here. This is not a massive priority, but if we can sink 10-30 XP into a Stunt or something that stops Hazou from massively fucking up (socially or otherwise) by taking something we've said too literally, doing it without applying contextual info first, sticking too closely to a plan instead of improvising, or just generally being untactful or not cautious in a situation where both are obviously required, etc. I would be entirely willing to pay that price.
You and me both, but I don't know if it's possible. We've already spent time training with Mari-sensei, to little effect...though admittedly that wasn't with an XP sink to it.
 
If ISC fails manipulation in a mode they can identify, the plan should revert to ISC+co defecting immediately, either to reinforce facilities or to gather pangolins for a rampage.

These are also win scenarios for us.
Huh. That's a very good point, actually. I wish we included a contingency for that. That improves my estimates.
1. Other people have agency.
2. OPSEC, stupid.
3. Remember Hot Springs.
4. At least one idiot is going to try it.

Any other ideas?
Definitely something about excessive paranoia, see: Kabuto, Shikaku, Doigama/Katou. Something about "creepy/manipulative does not equal hostile"?
I want to hire the Telescope Merchant to come to Konoha!! We need these for Skytowers damnit, it should be state funded!!!
I support this, as long as the telescope merchant in question is Jibura Tobikomi. We are bound by fate, and shan't make his journey meaningless.
I think my mental model of things is that all the social nin from Red Team One are going to be running around and helping with things on the plot front. Likewise, we have been given enough evidence that ISC is sufficiently motivated to make this succeed. A combination of these two along with our planned awakening order (easily manipulated people first)will suffice IMO.
This was mostly a joke:p. I will note though that the Evilest QM seems to be pretty busy with IRL stuff of late.
Well, that would be sorta problematic. I think we might not need this though. On one hand: they could do this. On the other hand: we're fighting ~30 Genin. If the Hivemind is ballparking success at ~60% or so, I think enemy leaders will be sufficiently biased to lower that down by quite a bit. As of the Kage update, pretty much everyone but Ren thought we would get turned into used gym socks by the end of Round 1. Round 1 data changes this, but I don't think it changes it to a large extent. Contextually, what we did was succeed at the start and snowball with our Drain + Summoner synergy. If they gang up on us at once, they might think this won't happen anyway. Like our allies, they don't really understand our capabilities.

I suppose my model of them could be a bit different.
Hmm, good point regarding social temporary teammates. In fact, there's a decent probability that ISC's R1 teammates were social-specialized as well. Perhaps I was unfair in modelling them as morons. This slightly improves my estimates.

Regarding shenanigans: We've constantly exceeded their expectations. Before the Exams, they probably thought us incompetent. After third event, they probably thought us very creative but not too dangerous. After Fourth Event, they likely thought us defeated, and still put us against the single strongest team. After R1, they will not underestimate us again.

Okay, I've revised my estimates.
  • 30%: In battle. Cause: Raw opposing power.
  • 20%: In battle. Cause: Enemy agency/creativity.
  • 10%: Before battle. Cause: Shikamaru's inability to convince STR to follow our strategy.
  • 10%: Before battle. Cause: Our inability to build all traps.
  • 5%: Before/during battle. Cause: OCP (proctors/Kages shenanigans)
  • 10%: During break day. Cause: Inability of temporary teammates to keep plan secret.
~61% probability of losing, down from ~71%.
 
You and me both, but I don't know if it's possible. We've already spent time training with Mari-sensei, to little effect...though admittedly that wasn't with an XP sink to it.
Even if it just erases "Open Mouth, Insert Foot" and replaces it with another Aspect to indicate that some tangible progress on this front has been made, I'd be potentially be down for sinking ~20-30 XP to promote general character growth.
Definitely something about excessive paranoia, see: Kabuto, Shikaku, Doigama/Katou. Something about "creepy/manipulative does not equal hostile"?
Don't forget the "Jiraiya killed Minami!" Conspiracy. That one actually made the QM's intercede to basically clarify that there was no way in hell that was the case, if you look at Jiraiya's motivations and character.
I support this, as long as the telescope merchant in question is Jibura Tobikomi. We are bound by fate, and shan't make his journey meaningless.
He should be due to arrive in Mist any day now actually, if I read his interlude right. We should go shopping or try to suss him out while we're here.
 
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Don't forget the "Jiraiya killed Minami!" Conspiracy. That one actually made the QM's intercede to basically clarify that there was no way in hell that was the case, if you look at Jiraiya's motivations and character.

I'm still a believer in that conspiracy. However I think it's for the best that we never ever look into it at all
 
Why did Shikamaru thinks that our victory is a given anyway?

He thinks it's the most likely outcome, not necessarily a given. The plan relies on our success, but most plans rely on the plan itself succeeding, so...

We do have a lot of advantages, including the fact that all of our opposition are suffering penalties this round.
 
Don't forget the "Jiraiya killed Minami!" Conspiracy. That one actually made the QM's intercede to basically clarify that there was no way in hell that was the case, if you look at Jiraiya's motivations and character.
Hmm. I think we have a bias towards assuming that people surrounding us are more ruthless than they are.
  • "Jiraiya killed Minami".
  • Kabuto.
  • Shikaku "manipulating" Hazou during their first meeting.
  • Doigama/Katou planning to betray us.
  • In general expecting Exam contestants to try to murder us or deliberately hurt themselves on our weapons.
(I'm not sure if the skywalking murdergirl fits into this, @Kiba.)
He should be due to arrive in Mist any day now actually, if I read his interlude right. We should go shopping or try to suss him out while we're here.
Indeed.
 
Don't forget the "Jiraiya killed Minami!" Conspiracy. That one actually made the QM's intercede to basically clarify that there was no way in hell that was the case, if you look at Jiraiya's motivations and character.
Weren't the QMs careful to not state that outright? I could have sworn...

eh. Too much work.
 
Weren't the QMs careful to not state that outright? I could have sworn...

eh. Too much work.
I mean, yes. But unless I'm terrible at reading between the lines, all but stated outright.

Not cutting the relevant posts down but here.

He's been pretty busy as Hokage lately, but I suppose it's possible that he snuck out, ran several hundred miles across the ocean and directly past the village of Mist, waited in the hut until you showed up, killed one of you, wrote a message in her blood, and then left. When you get back to Leaf you should ask around and see if he has had any unexcused absences lately.

[EDIT: This may have come out more snarky than intended. Assume tongue-in-cheek.]


You don't know exactly where they are now, but you know where their contact was and yes, they probably already arrived at the contact site. The current plan is that you will be meeting up at (roughly) the northeast corner of Honey a little before sundown today and will cross into Marsh tomorrow morning.

Looks like I got ninja'd by @Nejiranu, but I'll post this anyway since it was already written up:



In GM chat it has been noted rather pointedly that I should not dispense OOC information. I will, however, make a couple of points about *in-character* information that Hazō has but is less visible to the players. I mention this because not remembering it could distort your perceptions.

1) In the real world it was a few days between when you told Jiraiya and when Minami died. In-universe it was weeks.

2) At pretty much every delivery site, someone asked you to do something. Most of those didn't get mentioned onscreen because they were boring, but every civilian has some problem that could be easily solved by ninja: "Could you kill the chakra leopard that's been stalking my farm? Could you knock down that massive tree that's right in the middle of the field I want to plow? Could you....?"

3) Some clarifications about your points from above:


Fact: The enemy got an ambush round and used it on an AOE DOT effect that probably would have taken the entire group down in a couple rounds. All she needed to do was turtle up and wait.

Fact: In the first round, the enemy (let's call her Alice) used her combat action casting a defensive buff (Hōzuki's Mantle). If Minami hadn't attacked she wouldn't have died, because Alice had no actions left.

Fact: Before Alice got another turn the two of you were under an Air Dome and had pulled out a dozen seals that (a) she wasn't familiar with and (b) appeared to cancel out the AOE jutsu that she was counting on to take you down, but did so in a way that she couldn't identify.

Fact: Alice tested the barrier to see how tough it seemed, then promptly departed.


Fact: Jiraiya said that the reason he wanted you to stay on the ground was because he thought foreign intelligence services would be stirred up since you guys went tearing out of Ise in such a hurry. (He agreed it was the right thing to do, but that doesn't mean it didn't have consequences.)

Fact: After hearing what happened re Minami's death, Jiraiya said that apparently the entire eastern side of his network was compromised and therefore could not be trusted, so there was no point in delivering the messages.

Fact: He told you to use the skywalkers, but he said to (a) go up above cloud level as fast as possible and (b) do not come below cloud level until you were back at Leaf.


Okay, I have to ask -- what would you have said in his place? Imagine that you're the brand-new father figure to a bunch of kids, as well as their military commander, and they just lost a teammate for the first time. Now imagine that they lost that teammate because you screwed up and let your spy network get compromised. Would you tell them "Well, you guys really screwed the pooch. Nice job breaking it", or would you say "this wasn't your fault"?



Point of clarification: "infiltration spec" means spy. Someone who sneaks in, steals stuff, schmoozes information out of people, etc. If they lived long enough to become jōnin then they can probably kick some ass in a fight, but an infiltration spec is never going to be a Gai.

Fact: The way the multicombatant rules work, anyone who wants to be a solo fighter (like, for example, Gai) needs to put some thought into what they're going to do against groups.

Fact: The woman you fought demonstrated two jutsu and one skill that you saw: (a) Hōzuki's Mantle, which is a combat jutsu designed to let one person fight multiple opponents, (b) Eternal Lullaby, a technique designed to incapacitate large numbers of opponents, and (c) crushingly high Melee Weapons skill. She seemed to be very good at all of these things, which implies a high degree of investment in three combat-only skills.


As @Kiba said, confirmation bias is a thing. Try steelmanning the opposite position: "Resolved: Jiraiya did not kill Minami or order her killed." I suspect that, if you really make the effort, you will find it just as easy to support that position as to support the one where Jiraiya goes blue-on-blue.


Oh, there's not the slightest doubt that Jiraiya would kill for OPSEC -- he as much as told you that already. Expecting him to kill Leaf ninja who are standing next to his kids is a rather different story, though.




You should both get accounts on FFN or AO3 and publish. Then link it to /r/rational and ping me here to make sure I see it; I'll leave you your first review.

Seriously -- reply to this message with a date by which you commit to publish something and then do it. Choose a nearby date too, like Sunday night. It only has to be a few hundred words, but do it. It's an amazing feeling to put something up for the first time, and there's no way to improve as a writer except to write and write a lot.


Welcome to our world. Ugh.

Consider the states of mind that would make the above likely: An EJ is spending inordinate effort into debating you in the hopes you do not accidentally uncover an actual IC conspiracy (or otherwise tricking you into thinking that its not real by making you think we are in scenario II of this paragraph) or an EJ is sufficiently frustrated with said paranoia about an invalid conspiracy theory that he is taking time to debate about its validity.

I think the second is more likely. He's a busy guy, and thats a lot of effort for some 2-3rd level rocks-paper-scissors trickery if it was real.
 
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So, in a flash of inspiration, I decided to rewrite and truncate @Kiba's planmaking checklist in a more easily digestible format:
Another suggestion: "Is Hazou on the same page with us?" Consider his reaction to Hinata's lack of support for Jiraiya, or his lack of knowledge about our plans for R2, which partially caused this recent embarrassment with Shikamaru. I'm sure there are other examples too.
 
Definitely something about excessive paranoia, see: Kabuto, Shikaku, Doigama/Katou. Something about "creepy/manipulative does not equal hostile"?

"Just because they could be after you, doesn't mean they are."?

Shikaku "manipulating" Hazou during their first meeting.

Eh, nobody is going to convince me that Shikaku wasn't trying to keep Hazou off-balance during that conversation. There isn't any other reasonable explanation for him pretending to take notes, even if you take the most generous interpretation of everything else he did. The truth of it is probably somewhere in the middle - Shikaku acted as if Hazou could keep up because that's how he prefers to interact with people, while also appreciating the advantage it gave him.
 
Eh, nobody is going to convince me that Shikaku wasn't trying to keep Hazou off-balance during that conversation. There isn't any other reasonable explanation for him pretending to take notes, even if you take the most generous interpretation of everything else he did. The truth of it is probably somewhere in the middle - Shikaku acted as if Hazou could keep up because that's how he prefers to interact with people, while also appreciating the advantage it gave him.
I mean, as we were informed by Jiraiya, it's also indicative that he respects us. As we saw during the clan council meeting, he was perfectly willing to dumb things down for those less quick-witted, if a bit annoyed to do so.
 
"Just because they could be after you, doesn't mean they are."?
Yes, and... taking into account your point about Shikaku, it should also say something to the effect of "other people are unlikely to believe your conspiracy theories". Covers Kabuto too.

Edit: Doesn't have to be "us" specifically, see: Minami. Make it less protagonist-centered; it affects our predictions about actions of NPCs with regards to other NPCs too.
 
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@Radvic, @OliWhail
Aha! Another explosion citation with more nuanced damage references! I probably shouldn't be this excited!

http://cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/terrorism_and_pyrotechnics/explosives/Science_of_Explosives/The Effects of Explosive Blast on Structures & Personnel.pdf

I'd take a gander at Table 8, for telephone pole, and assume that is a reasonable approximation of a tree (if anything, I'd expect a living tree to be more ductile, so less susceptible to sudden impulsive shear/bending failure).
They give Z, the distance at which the pole snaps divided by the cube root of TNT weight (ft/lb^(1/3), as 6.2 (ft/lb^(1/3) .

Doing some quick math reveals that one gets 45 ft (15 m) snapping distance at 385 lbs, or about 175 kg TNT.

--
Plugging 175 kg TNT back into our old, trusty equations gives us:

Vf = Vi e^(W/(nRT))
Vi = 33500 m[/sup]3
W = - mTNT * 4.184 e6 Joules = -7.32e8
n = 33500 mol
R is the ideal gas constant (8.314 4598 J mol-1 K-1)
T = 293 K.

Vf = 33500 * e^(-7.32e8 / (33500 *8.314 4598 *293)) = 4.252 m^3
Rf = (Vf*3/(4*pi))^(1/3) = 1 m

--
If the mol number is really off, as claimed earlier today, redo calculations with 40x mols
Vf = 33500 * e^(-7.32e8 / (40*33500 *8.314 4598 *293)) = 26769 m^3
Rf = (Vf*3/(4*pi))^(1/3) = 18.6 m

..
Huh. 18.6 m. Wouldn't that be a lucky coincidence?

The mol question started bugging me today, so I decided to run numbers on it.

Molecular mass of air is ~29 g/mol.
SSL air density is ~1.225 kg/m^3

Therefore, under SSL assumption, 42.24 mol/m^3 air.

The implosion seal grabs a 20 m radius sphere of air. There are two general use cases: air burst above 20 m, and surface burst. The demonstrated forest clearing was accomplished by a surface burst, so it only grabbed a 20m hemisphere of air.

Vol_in_airburst = 4/3 * pi * 20^3 = 33510 m^3
Vol_in_surfaceburst = 33510/2 = 16755 m^3

The first volume matches well with the original estimate, and the 42.14 correction is close to the rounded correction that was used above. However, unless the implosion seals got launched 20 m in the air above ground zero, we actually need to run this with a hemispherical air capture.

Using the telephone pole snapping analogy tells us 175 kg of TNT will snap all trees within a 15 m radius. Use this, along with the number of molecules in a 20m hemisphere of air, and return to the trusty Volume Compression formula...

Vf = 16755 * e^(-7.32e8 / (42.24*16755*8.3144598 *293)) = 10959 m^3
This Vf is also a hemisphere, so the spherical volume would be 21918 m^3

Rf = (Vf*3/(4*pi))^(1/3) = 17.4 m

I am not a 100% sure that trees that are already within the sphere of effect would be snapped, as they wouldn't have the load imbalance from an impinging/reflecting shock on one side and standard atmosphere on the other.
@OliWhail
I'd be willing to calculate what intake volume would be required for a 1-2 m (I suspect somewhere on the order of 3-8 m) release radius that also yields a 175 kg TNT equivalent detonation, as I'm reasonably sure that would look more like a 1-zone of effect lung-burst attack coupled with the multiple-zone effect explosion.
Id probably model it as something like (2 x roll successes) to dodge and Weapon: 8 in the local zone, with regular dodge against Weapon 8-2 per zone radial to the initial zone for other zones - so it acts a substantial explosive out to 4 zones radius. (for one implosion seal. stacked is a whole-nother ballpark)
 
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