- Location
- Phoenix, AZ
Not really. Some of my friends have waterboarded each other with a water bottle, a cloth, and a river in ~20 seconds before.
Not really. Some of my friends have waterboarded each other with a water bottle, a cloth, and a river in ~20 seconds before.
Considering the likely team arrangements with regard to Leaf.
I consider it probable that one of the two teams we will face will be leaf, but very improbable that both teams will be leaf.
- Of course one will. However, more than one will scream impartiality in the set-up, and would likely get vetoed. If it were to go through, I suspect Jiraiya could leverage minor concessions from third parties with regard to Mist.
I consider it probable that there will be 2 teams with leaf on both red and blue sides.
- 1 red and 3 blue, or vice-versa seems somewhat impartial. Additionally, because I do not believe we will face 2 leaf teams, 3 teams on one side would give us additional insight we otherwise wouldn't have (though it could be incorrect)
I consider it slightly more probable than not that the other round one red team with leaf will be the mixed team.
- Slightly tenser build up during the two hour initial window
I consider it probable that the team we will face is team Kurenai, and if not, then team Asuma
- Likely known that team Kurenai is more likely to impartially attempt to eliminate us. Both Kurenai and Asuma are high scoring teams - would guarantee loss ofr traitors or relative lowering of high scoring Leaf team.
I consider it probable that we will face team the leaf team in round 1
- During the recovery day, additional tension because inevitably one of the teams has hard feelings. Both teams more likely to mess up in second round.
--
These beliefs lead me to 8 general combinations from the 3 binary options
Face Kurenai or Asuma (64% - 33%)
Face Leaf first or second round (75% - 25%)
Random Leaf on Blue or Red on first round (40% - 60%)
I will follow through with consideration of what we can do with scores for different combinations. Do we have other beliefs I should incorporate?
I have been convinced by @Sentient Tree that the Moderate Consequence plan is superior to the Severe Consequence plan numerically. I believe we can sacrifice some points for Asuma/Kurenai/Other Leaf guy and still get the 400/450 pt advantage needed to return to the lead. Can probably sacrifice more and still be in top 16. Will do proper analysis when I'm sure I have broad enough coverage to proceed.
*screaming in literally everyone Shikamaru fights. Silent, paralyzed screaming*I have just realized that there will be a solid 8 hours in which Nara Shikamaru will be attacking or defending a strategic location...
... at night.
This is truly wonderful.
No, I'm thinking we need to contact him immediately to organize either some form of mutually beneficial alliance (whether direct or indirect) or some form of non-aggression pact.*screaming in literally everyone Shikamaru fights. Silent, paralyzed screaming*
Edit: given the possibility of us fighting him, should we think up countermeasures? Do we have any seals that make enough light to light up the night?
FWIW, if we want to counter Shikamaru, there is a canon scene where the Shadow Binding jutsu is known to be breakable by people with strong enough chakra. It is definitely no instant win condition and while I doubt that most Chunin candidates can break it 1vs1, I truly doubt he can ensnare our bigger pangolin summons for long - or even at all. They should also be immune to Ino's mind control due to their alien minds, so their only vulnerability is physical damage via Choji. (Hidden) Pangolins will be our trump card should he decline our alliance.
I am reasonably confident that Shika will see fighting us as -- at best -- a waste of time for the both of us. Its communicating that with him beforehand (Hey, its us, we are here, please reply with your location and color so as not to waste time) that will be annoying.
Didn't he still manage to hold Gara for a few seconds though? I'm pretty sure Gara has a lot more chakra than our pangolins.FWIW, if we want to counter Shikamaru, there is a canon scene where the Shadow Binding jutsu is known to be breakable by people with strong enough chakra. It is definitely no instant win condition and while I doubt that most Chunin candidates can break it 1vs1, I truly doubt he can ensnare our bigger pangolin summons for long - or even at all. They should also be immune to Ino's mind control due to their alien minds, so their only vulnerability is physical damage via Choji. (Hidden) Pangolins will be our trump card should he decline our alliance.
It is possible Ino might try to enter Keiko's mind to make her cancel the summons (is that even possible?) but the threat of using Frozen Skein with Ino inside her mind should be enough of a deterrent.
Didn't he still manage to hold Gara for a few seconds though? I'm pretty sure Gara has a lot more chakra than our pangolins.
I mean, 'hilariously broken' kinda describes bloodlines in general.He did but IIRC that was in the hospital and Gaara was still fully human and not trying hard to get out. Shika's jutsu has to scale in cost/endurance cost with the target's mass or power/chakra or it would be hilariously broken in MfD.
Team Shika is certainly not well specced to deal with us if we make a serious effort, but they will be able to deal with teams who aren't specced for explosive ridiculous overkill with moderate difficulty, especially in the defender situation.I don't think Team Asuma are particularly well suited for this situation, and I wouldn't worry too much about them. Shikamaru's and Ino's clan techniques aren't easy to apply in a chaotic multi-combatant engagement, and at best they're channeled crowd control that disable one person on both sides. Against another team focused on subtlety, they might work, but not so much against our overwhelming, brutal force.
Shikamaru's danger as an opponent lies more in his ability to strategize, but this requires his team to actually listen and execute his orders. In particular, he's probably used to working in a known and tried configuration, with teammates whose capabilities he knows perfectly and can trust to do as they're told. With a random, uncoordinated group, precise tactical manoeuvres will be very difficult, if not impossible.
Are you suggesting that I would deliberately do something mean to you just because, after an implicit deal to provide metainformation in exchange for moving things along to the actual event, you instead chose to spend the whole update on prep and not get to the actual event?*heavy breathing that isn't really all that heavy because of the assumption that we're still alive for eaglejarl's punching but STILL HEAVY BREATHING BECAUSE IT'S EAGLEJARL AND HE WOULD TOTALLY FUCK US IF I MESSED UP SOMETHING IN MY PLAN AHHHHHHHHHHH*
FTFYAre you suggested that I would deliberately do something mean to you just because, after an implicit deal to provide metainformation in exchange for moving things along to the actual event, you instead chose to spend the whole update on prep and not get to the actual event?
You wound me, good sir. You wound me.
*turns back tohis keyboardplotting Team Uplift's doom*
Not to be rude or anything but was there actual consensus on this? To me it looks like @Inferno Vulpix suggested it and it happened a few posts later.Are you suggested that I would deliberately do something mean to you just because, after an implicit deal to provide metainformation in exchange for moving things along to the actual event, you instead chose to spend the whole update on prep and not get to the actual event?
*adds your name to The List*Not to be rude or anything but was there actual consensus on this? To me it looks like @Inferno Vulpix suggested it and it happened a few posts later.
Now, do as thou wilt, but I wouldn't necessarily call that a "deal" so to speak
I like lists! Those sound fun! Can I be on the list?
You, dear...corkscrew math thingy?...have bounced on and off The List repeatedly over the years.