Considering the likely team arrangements with regard to Leaf.

I consider it probable that one of the two teams we will face will be leaf, but very improbable that both teams will be leaf.
- Of course one will. However, more than one will scream impartiality in the set-up, and would likely get vetoed. If it were to go through, I suspect Jiraiya could leverage minor concessions from third parties with regard to Mist.

I consider it probable that there will be 2 teams with leaf on both red and blue sides.
- 1 red and 3 blue, or vice-versa seems somewhat impartial. Additionally, because I do not believe we will face 2 leaf teams, 3 teams on one side would give us additional insight we otherwise wouldn't have (though it could be incorrect)

I consider it slightly more probable than not that the other round one red team with leaf will be the mixed team.
- Slightly tenser build up during the two hour initial window

I consider it probable that the team we will face is team Kurenai, and if not, then team Asuma
- Likely known that team Kurenai is more likely to impartially attempt to eliminate us. Both Kurenai and Asuma are high scoring teams - would guarantee loss ofr traitors or relative lowering of high scoring Leaf team.

I consider it probable that we will face team the leaf team in round 1
- During the recovery day, additional tension because inevitably one of the teams has hard feelings. Both teams more likely to mess up in second round.

--
These beliefs lead me to 8 general combinations from the 3 binary options
Face Kurenai or Asuma (64% - 33%)
Face Leaf first or second round (75% - 25%)
Random Leaf on Blue or Red on first round (40% - 60%)

I will follow through with consideration of what we can do with scores for different combinations. Do we have other beliefs I should incorporate?

I have been convinced by @Sentient Tree that the Moderate Consequence plan is superior to the Severe Consequence plan numerically. I believe we can sacrifice some points for Asuma/Kurenai/Other Leaf guy and still get the 400/450 pt advantage needed to return to the lead. Can probably sacrifice more and still be in top 16. Will do proper analysis when I'm sure I have broad enough coverage to proceed.

The Severe Consequences plan has been QM-nerfed anyway. We should assume that the proctors wouldnt take such rules lawyering lightly.

In addition: Unfortunately we are dealing with many irrational agents here in this Event. They may not do something optimal for them just to spite others.

That being said my favorite general strategy could be summarized as "Levy Moderate Consequences to as Many as Possible in Both Roundss." with the minutiae of this being the difficult part.
 
Ah, I just realized Kei could be very specific in her interrogations: Ask specifically after non-bloodline techniques. I think we could get away with that, if nothing else.
 
I'm honestly not sure if the kids will actually torture another person, even if we vote it in, over stakes this small. Which is probably a good thing, I don't think we want Hazou to be the kind of person who does this casually.

And we should be fine with Keiko's Intimidation either way.

On that note, it's fine to establish a reputation for strength and fearlessness. Less so for brutality and viciousness, given our long-term goals.
 
I have just realized that there will be a solid 8 hours in which Nara Shikamaru will be attacking or defending a strategic location...



... at night.

This is truly wonderful.
 
I have just realized that there will be a solid 8 hours in which Nara Shikamaru will be attacking or defending a strategic location...



... at night.

This is truly wonderful.
*screaming in literally everyone Shikamaru fights. Silent, paralyzed screaming*


Edit: given the possibility of us fighting him, should we think up countermeasures? Do we have any seals that make enough light to light up the night?
 
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*screaming in literally everyone Shikamaru fights. Silent, paralyzed screaming*


Edit: given the possibility of us fighting him, should we think up countermeasures? Do we have any seals that make enough light to light up the night?
No, I'm thinking we need to contact him immediately to organize either some form of mutually beneficial alliance (whether direct or indirect) or some form of non-aggression pact.

If we end up getting paired against Team Shika in Round 1, and we proceed without realizing this, this will be extremely dangerous.
 
FWIW, if we want to counter Shikamaru, there is a canon scene where the Shadow Binding jutsu is known to be breakable by people with strong enough chakra. It is definitely no instant win condition and while I doubt that most Chunin candidates can break it 1vs1, I truly doubt he can ensnare our bigger pangolin summons for long - or even at all. They should also be immune to Ino's mind control due to their alien minds, so their only vulnerability is physical damage via Choji. (Hidden) Pangolins will be our trump card should he decline our alliance.

It is possible Ino might try to enter Keiko's mind to make her cancel the summons (is that even possible?) but the threat of using Frozen Skein with Ino inside her mind should be enough of a deterrent.
 
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FWIW, if we want to counter Shikamaru, there is a canon scene where the Shadow Binding jutsu is known to be breakable by people with strong enough chakra. It is definitely no instant win condition and while I doubt that most Chunin candidates can break it 1vs1, I truly doubt he can ensnare our bigger pangolin summons for long - or even at all. They should also be immune to Ino's mind control due to their alien minds, so their only vulnerability is physical damage via Choji. (Hidden) Pangolins will be our trump card should he decline our alliance.

I am reasonably confident that Shika will see fighting us as -- at best -- a waste of time for the both of us. Its communicating that with him beforehand (Hey, its us, we are here, please reply with your location and color so as not to waste time) that will be annoying.
 
You know, I bet burning log macerators would light up the night pretty well for a (very small) amount of time. Could we use one of those overhead every once in a while? Explosives also could provide some light, plus we probably have a lot more of them.
Another way to avoid getting caught is to go underground with HLAM. This only works for us and any Rock nin on our team though, and doesn't work so well if the other side has Rock nin.


Based on this, I would suggest using a burning log macerator up in the air as a fear weapon as soon as we get close to the facility. It should make some defenders wet their pants, and give us a split second to look for out of place shadows.
When we are blue team (assuming we haven't already fought Shikamaru), we should place torches and bonfires everywhere, inside and outside of the facility.
 
I am reasonably confident that Shika will see fighting us as -- at best -- a waste of time for the both of us. Its communicating that with him beforehand (Hey, its us, we are here, please reply with your location and color so as not to waste time) that will be annoying.

We may want to gently remind him of the pangolins and Frozen Skein just to be sure. The stick to our carrot.
 
FWIW, if we want to counter Shikamaru, there is a canon scene where the Shadow Binding jutsu is known to be breakable by people with strong enough chakra. It is definitely no instant win condition and while I doubt that most Chunin candidates can break it 1vs1, I truly doubt he can ensnare our bigger pangolin summons for long - or even at all. They should also be immune to Ino's mind control due to their alien minds, so their only vulnerability is physical damage via Choji. (Hidden) Pangolins will be our trump card should he decline our alliance.

It is possible Ino might try to enter Keiko's mind to make her cancel the summons (is that even possible?) but the threat of using Frozen Skein with Ino inside her mind should be enough of a deterrent.
Didn't he still manage to hold Gara for a few seconds though? I'm pretty sure Gara has a lot more chakra than our pangolins.
 
Didn't he still manage to hold Gara for a few seconds though? I'm pretty sure Gara has a lot more chakra than our pangolins.

He did but IIRC that was in the hospital and Gaara was still fully human and not trying hard to get out. Shika's jutsu has to scale in cost/endurance cost with the target's mass or power/chakra or it would be hilariously broken in MfD.
 
@eaglejarl @OliWhail @Velorien

Regardless of any combat value, I think we can safely assume that Pandaa is relatively competent at general Pangolin stuff like digging and moving earth around, right? At least significantly more so than a human would be?
 
I don't think Team Asuma are particularly well suited for this situation, and I wouldn't worry too much about them. Shikamaru's and Ino's clan techniques aren't easy to apply in a chaotic multi-combatant engagement, and at best they're channeled crowd control that disable one person on both sides. Against another team focused on subtlety, they might work, but not so much against our overwhelming, brutal force.

Shikamaru's danger as an opponent lies more in his ability to strategize, but this requires his team to actually listen and execute his orders. In particular, he's probably used to working in a known and tried configuration, with teammates whose capabilities he knows perfectly and can trust to do as they're told. With a random, uncoordinated group, precise tactical manoeuvres will be very difficult, if not impossible.
 
*heavy breathing that isn't really all that heavy because of the assumption that we're still alive for eaglejarl's punching but STILL HEAVY BREATHING BECAUSE IT'S EAGLEJARL AND HE WOULD TOTALLY FUCK US IF I MESSED UP SOMETHING IN MY PLAN AHHHHHHHHHHH*
 
I don't think Team Asuma are particularly well suited for this situation, and I wouldn't worry too much about them. Shikamaru's and Ino's clan techniques aren't easy to apply in a chaotic multi-combatant engagement, and at best they're channeled crowd control that disable one person on both sides. Against another team focused on subtlety, they might work, but not so much against our overwhelming, brutal force.

Shikamaru's danger as an opponent lies more in his ability to strategize, but this requires his team to actually listen and execute his orders. In particular, he's probably used to working in a known and tried configuration, with teammates whose capabilities he knows perfectly and can trust to do as they're told. With a random, uncoordinated group, precise tactical manoeuvres will be very difficult, if not impossible.
Team Shika is certainly not well specced to deal with us if we make a serious effort, but they will be able to deal with teams who aren't specced for explosive ridiculous overkill with moderate difficulty, especially in the defender situation.

This is great, I'm sort of relying on them not having major problems.
 
*heavy breathing that isn't really all that heavy because of the assumption that we're still alive for eaglejarl's punching but STILL HEAVY BREATHING BECAUSE IT'S EAGLEJARL AND HE WOULD TOTALLY FUCK US IF I MESSED UP SOMETHING IN MY PLAN AHHHHHHHHHHH*
Are you suggesting that I would deliberately do something mean to you just because, after an implicit deal to provide metainformation in exchange for moving things along to the actual event, you instead chose to spend the whole update on prep and not get to the actual event?

You wound me, good sir. You wound me.

*turns back to his keyboard*
 
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Are you suggested that I would deliberately do something mean to you just because, after an implicit deal to provide metainformation in exchange for moving things along to the actual event, you instead chose to spend the whole update on prep and not get to the actual event?

You wound me, good sir. You wound me.

*turns back to his keyboard plotting Team Uplift's doom*
FTFY :V
 
Are you suggested that I would deliberately do something mean to you just because, after an implicit deal to provide metainformation in exchange for moving things along to the actual event, you instead chose to spend the whole update on prep and not get to the actual event?
Not to be rude or anything but was there actual consensus on this? To me it looks like @Inferno Vulpix suggested it and it happened a few posts later.

Now, do as thou wilt, but I wouldn't necessarily call that a "deal" so to speak :p
 
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