Considering the likely team arrangements with regard to Leaf.
I consider it probable that one of the two teams we will face will be leaf, but very improbable that both teams will be leaf.
- Of course one will. However, more than one will scream impartiality in the set-up, and would likely get vetoed. If it were to go through, I suspect Jiraiya could leverage minor concessions from third parties with regard to Mist.
I consider it probable that there will be 2 teams with leaf on both red and blue sides.
- 1 red and 3 blue, or vice-versa seems somewhat impartial. Additionally, because I do not believe we will face 2 leaf teams, 3 teams on one side would give us additional insight we otherwise wouldn't have (though it could be incorrect)
I consider it slightly more probable than not that the other round one red team with leaf will be the mixed team.
- Slightly tenser build up during the two hour initial window
I consider it probable that the team we will face is team Kurenai, and if not, then team Asuma
- Likely known that team Kurenai is more likely to impartially attempt to eliminate us. Both Kurenai and Asuma are high scoring teams - would guarantee loss ofr traitors or relative lowering of high scoring Leaf team.
I consider it probable that we will face team the leaf team in round 1
- During the recovery day, additional tension because inevitably one of the teams has hard feelings. Both teams more likely to mess up in second round.
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These beliefs lead me to 8 general combinations from the 3 binary options
Face Kurenai or Asuma (67% - 33%)
Face Leaf first or second round (75% - 25%)
Random Leaf on Blue or Red on first round (40% - 60%)
I will follow through with consideration of what we can do with scores for different combinations. Do we have other beliefs I should incorporate?
I have been convinced by
@Sentient Tree that the Moderate Consequence plan is superior to the Severe Consequence plan numerically. I believe we can sacrifice some points for Asuma/Kurenai/Other Leaf guy and still get the 400/450 pt advantage needed to return to the lead. Can probably sacrifice more and still be in top 16. Will do proper analysis when I'm sure I have broad enough coverage to proceed.