Technique Hacking Effort Post for the Future
I know it isn't in the books for a while, but I wanted to take a look at Earthshaping. Particularly, the general
TH path we'd take in an ideal world, to gain veterancy towards improving our best/most plot relevant jutsu. Biggest advantages i can see are if we can decrease/eliminate the ongoing chakra cost, and if we can shape things faster without a time ladder penalty. These would let us use PS quicker/easier/more often, generally opening up options. It's entirely likely that by the time we get TH research time, the shape of the quest will be fundamentally different, and/or we'll care more about Minato Sealing. but if so that's fine.
Analysis of the completion and refinement system
Refinement makes the jutsu stronger, with completion acting as a balance. With no other context, we'd want to take as long as possible to do jutsu creation. However, if we're anywhere close to the TN, more days means more chances for bad roles, and therefore more flaws that we can't afford to spend Fate points trying to remedy. Also, we're always going to be on some sort of timer, so spending longer than necessary on a project isn't ideal. The best bet is to have TH over the TN by enough not to have to worry as much, and just truck along. However, since we won't know TNs, it'll take bit of experimenting and familiarity. We don't know how tweaks and new jutsu will affect complexity and the TN compared to each other, for example.
How high should we get our TH?
No idea! Ideally to 40 before we mess with ES, but I would say at least 20 before trying any project, and 30 before trying any project we're likely to care about.
How to Decrease Complexity
Veterancy applies here, like with sealing. Same with the TN decreasing it seems. So we want to have worked on a jutsu as similar as possible, that isn't the same technique due to the harder difficulty we've been warned about. ES is an Earth-element maneuver, slowly feeding our chakra into the earth in a maintained effect. Jutsu that share attributes with it are more helpful.
Do we Want to Decrease Complexity?
Yes. Of course. Getting through projects faster lets us do more cool projects. And we can always take up to TH AB to refine after we finish, where we don't have to put any points at all into complexity, so there's some flexibility.
Plus, since the only demo we've seen was from a basic jutsu sample where we were told not to take the numbers as gospel, if we're facing complexity of 30+, we'd want to reduce the time as much as possible.
Do we have enough chakra?
We can only buy up to chakra AB of points at a time. Since one has to go to complexity, we can spend at most AB-1 on refinement a day. Since right now our AB is 4, that means that until we are on those very last optional refinement days, we can't get refinement points past 3. Which means the absolute most points of refinement we can get when we finish complexity is 9. We don't really know how much things cost, but that does also include buying back any flaws. In the example from Paper, quite a few shifts of success were wasted, and then quite a bit of refinement went towards fixing an added flaw.
I think the short answer is that, yeah, increasing chakra to have an AB of 5 would be great. We'd be able to get more refinement early on and/or finish products quicker if we had good enough TH. That's an extra extra requirement, so more of a stretch goal. But, if Minato Sealing is a combo of sealing and TH, and literally depends on our internal chakra, there's a nontrivial chance increasing chakra would benefit that as well. Plus, I wanna summon Cannai one day, dang it!
What about the chakra cave water?
It wouldn't be a terrible idea to test our a single sealing project with the water still in our system, so we know how much it helps. Maybe it lowers TN significantly, or gives bonus success, or makes our effective chakra higher for buying success or something. Regardless, knowing what the effect is would help us plan better.
BUT, if we can get a rune that does that, we can explore at our leisure. And TH takes times, which we don't really have, plus chakra, which we don't have enough of. The only decent argument I can think for trying TH while under the water's influence is that it may help us get a better idea about what the water's doing, in a way that makes it easier for us to make the seal by bringing in our TH to it. I don't know that that's worth it though.
How much of this is conjecture?
Most of it! I mean, the math parts are straightforward (AB 5 > AB 4, veterancy > no veterancy, etc), but how much things matter or help, I have no idea! I'll update this part of the post (and likely the TL;dr at the bottom) once we know more.
Recommended Veterancy Pathway
-Highest priority, but not the first target, should be Living Roots. It's a Maneuver, like ES. It has a similar effect of putting chakra into the earth and sensing what's going on. We're somewhat familiar with it, and have levels in it. Which means it's both more knowledgeable to us, and any improvements to it are upside anyway.
-Any of the regular level 1 techniques we grabbed. Trying to tweak a new technique means if we mess up getting practice on something we weren't going to run anyway, it's no real loss, and we can still use the base version. And if we make something entirely new out of it, we don't have to give up xp switching to the new and superior jutsu.
-MEW. We know it, we love it, we never leveled it above level 1. It's also a maneuver, which means it's also harder than an attack or defense, but more similar to ES. Increasing efficacy out of it would be useful as well.
-I genuinely don't know how BoC would work, since it's already an offspring of ES. It may negatively impact our ability to hack ES, so I am recommending against it until we get IC confirmation it wouldn't be an issue.
Other Techniques we may want to improve anyway
-PEA. It's a good strong toolkit technique we'd want to improve if we can, like decreasing costs for higher level usage, or making the activation a supplemental (even reactionary) in exchange for a decreased effect. Plus, tweaking to make a move faster may be good practice for trying to make ES faster. HOWEVER, we did promise the Pangolins not to modify any of their technique, so it would be a further violation of a deal that we had already broken off.
-BRI, or the other good level 1 skills we have. If we could improve bleeding river impalement or stone storm barrier by TH before leveling it, we'd know if it was worth it or not, and how likely we were to use it.
Suggested Earth TH Queue. Number of * indicate how important I think the step is.
1) *Try Tweaking a random level 1 skill (like stone bullet)
2) **Try modifying MEW
3) ***Try tweaking Living Roots
4) *Try tweaking BRI, or other good level 1 skill (like SSB or RAotT)
5) **Try tweaking PEA (thread consensus on breaking the agreement with the Pangolins notwithstanding)
6) ***TH Earth Shaping
Tl;dr:
More chakra would be helpful, but hopefully not vital. If we wanna modify ES, and we should, we should do some tweaking projects first. Living Roots is our best veterancy testbed. Trying on another good technique first to get a good sense of difficulty and a new shiny would be good.
I'll try to include my proposed TH stats for ES in this post when I have time, plus for a couple of the others. I'm also down if folks have suggested modifications to add them here.
Feedback/improvement/telling me why I'm wrong (politely) always welcome.