Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

schlega · Jun 22, 2018

I'd just like to point out that any plan where Hazou enters the mist should be assumed to reveal our location and the fact that we used Hiding Like a Mole to any Wakahisa present.

Vecht · Jun 22, 2018

1234qwerty said:
Given the unknown source of the heat, would Ren take credit and claim that reacting to an unexpected emergency in the midst of enemies, civilians, and allies was the true purpose of this exam?

I don't think so, but you bring up a good point -- I'd bet that quite a few of the other contestants are going to be thinking that this is the "true event" in the exam, and that the rest of it was just a pretext to get them all in one spot and to drop their guard.

E: Which means we might want to be careful with any lies we tell... it would look really suspicious if we're the only ones who jump to "well obviously someone was just derailing the event -- we don't know who of course -- don't mind that we're all just chilling here while everyone else is slaughtering each other"

Vecht · Jun 22, 2018

Cariyaga said:
@Vecht I'm pretty sure it's a bad idea to run: it's been noted that while the people in the cloud can't see us, the few that broke off can (and will likely be interrogated later), and any well-placed proctors would be able to as well

Plan that I wasn't going to update said:
Use an additional misterator for cover (careful not to enter the mist ourself), then dash around the corner of the house

Erolki · Jun 22, 2018

I'm not going to have much time for plotting in the next couple days, but from what I've seen this plan is my favourite angle - quick, simple, and has us acting plausibly as if we're innocent.

[X] Nope.jpg

(I'm aware it's not a full formal plan, but now the jokes are officially outnumbered!)

Tua · Jun 22, 2018

Anderkent said:
Our only chance is to seduce every proctor so that they don't want to do that.

Here's to hoping most of them are at least 70 years or older. Otherwise Hazo or Noburi won't go for them.

Also since people still seem alarmed that Hazo was spotted in the herd and that it would be suspicious to be caught away from it: That is not the case.

Tua said:
Shirotsuma the Harlot gave us (and some other genin) the excuse to leave the herd and into the hedge maze by loudly announcing she was leaving before the tipserator or the explosion triggered.
If we can substitute ourselves into that direction, go underground and come back up somewhere in the hedge maze we shouldn't be suspicious at all.

E:

1234qwerty said:
Given the unknown source of the heat, would Ren take credit and claim that reacting to an unexpected emergency in the midst of enemies, civilians, and allies was the true purpose of this exam?

I don't think she can do that. Surely all events have their goals be known to the respective Kages once they start to prevent exactly this type of cheating. The exams have to meet some standards, certainly, otherwise no one would agree to bring their genin to them.

Velorien · Jun 22, 2018

Anderkent said:
A quick investigation into crowds (i.e. reading Stampede - Wikipedia) suggests that stampedes ('lots of people running somewhere') very rarely cause serious injuries:

> According to experts, true "stampedes" (and "panics") rarely occur except when many people are fleeing in fear, such as from a fire,[6] and trampling by people in such "stampede" conditions rarely causes fatal injuries.[7]

>One word bears a lot of blame here, at least in English. Mention a "stampede" in front of Galea and he starts to look pretty wild-eyed. "This is just absolute nonsense," he says. "It's pure ignorance, and laziness … It gives the impression that it was a mindless crowd only caring about themselves, and they were prepared to crush people." The truth is that people are only directly crushed by others who have no choice in the matter, and the people who can choose don't know what is going on because they're too far away from the epicentre
>"Crowd quakes [or collapses] are a typical reason for crowd disasters, to be distinguished from those resulting from 'mass panic' or 'crowd crushes'," says Dirk Helbing, a computing professor at ETH Zurich. "The idea of the hysterical mass is a myth," says Paul Torrens, a professor at the Center for Geospatial Information Science at the University of Maryland

Hajj crush: how crowd disasters happen, and how they can be avoided

Basically the dangerous thing is when you have 6+ people per square meter, and so no space for anyone to make any movement, and so the crowd acts as a fluid and shockwaves / continuous pressure kill people.

Panicked folks running forward can end in bruises and broken limbs, but not significant amount of deaths; modulo someone being very unlucky. And even then you need something to artificially cosntraint people to a small area; otherwise they will naturally spread out.

Note, however, that everything changes when the crowd hits the closed doors. At that point, the people at the front are going to be crushed by the waves of people behind them who don't realise that the doors are closed. Even in the best case scenario where the doors get opened, you now have 200 people trying to squeeze through a narrow opening into an entrance corridor which also cannot accommodate that many people.

Also, recall that everyone is blind and increasingly drunk, which doesn't do wonders for "People make the best choices they can based on the information available to them".

Kiba · Jun 22, 2018

I am thinking throwing in a banshee seal is a good idea.

Drasky · Jun 22, 2018

I'm thinking that just going directly to the labyrinth is a good idea.

I'm sure there will be other people that will come to the conclusion that going directly into the house with the stampede is not a good idea and will spread out eventually. We can use that to our advantage and act like we were one of them.

Besides even if it's not the case it definitely looks like they are herded towards the mansion and some ninja are bound to notice that.

TenebrousDreamer · Jun 22, 2018

zap lunch

Roomba · Jun 22, 2018

Way I see it, the proctors are going to find out about the SuperTeam being grouped up in our safe spot sooner or later, so it's advantageous to tell them ourselves, with an opportunity to offer an explanation. Simplest one I can come up with is that Shikamaru, using his genius intellect, anticipated the intent of whoever created the heat, and being privy to a lot of identities from his info-broker strategy, assembled some of his friends in a separate location. Hazou himself was supposed to be there as well, but he decided to venture out so he could help in case things spiralled out of control.

The main problem therein is that we didn't have an opportunity to discuss this with our friends, so we'll need to manoeuvre ourselves to be able to do that before proctors talk to them. Shouldn't be that big of a problem, though.

Man, I wasn't going to write a plan for this update, as I'm going to be completely unavailable for most of Saturday, but I might just put something together today, and let you guys use it as you want.

Drasky · Jun 22, 2018

Roomba said:
Way I see it, the proctors are going to find out about the SuperTeam being grouped up in our safe spot sooner or later, so it's advantageous to tell them ourselves, with an opportunity to offer an explanation.

The opportunity to offer explanation would still mean that we have to tell the proctors what we did and that would be an admission of guilt.

Even if we state that we didn't detonate the exploding tag we still did everything else and could be held responsible for the totality of the clusterfuck if no one steps in.

The event isn't over yet, it is still ongoing. At least a hundred ninja are disguised and still playing along. The proctors did not judge the situation to be bad enough to signal an end to this event. Why are we screwing ourselves over?

I'm trying to understand what your angle is, but I'm coming up blank.

Roomba · Jun 22, 2018

Drasky said:
The opportunity to offer explanation would still mean that we have to tell the proctors what we did and that would be an admission of guilt.

Even if we state that we didn't detonate the exploding tag we still did everything else and could be held responsible for the totality of the clusterfuck if no one steps in.

The event isn't over yet, it is still ongoing. At least a hundred ninja are disguised and still playing along. The proctors did not judge the situation to be bad enough to signal an end to this event. Why are we screwing ourselves over?

I'm trying to understand what your angle is, but I'm coming up blank.

I feel like there's some kind of miscommunication here. Did you read the rest of my post? We're not admitting to anything. The opportunity to offer an explanation doesn't have to mean anything. We can literally just walk up to a non-disguised proctor and ask whether the event is still ongoing. The event isn't over as of the moment the stampede started, but if most of the contestants have their Henges popped and there's heat of unknown origin covering most of the location, then it's perfectly reasonable for Hazou to want to know if he should continue as is or maybe do something else.

Enjou · Jun 22, 2018

Given this update shouldn't require a super huge plan, I'll take a crack at putting up a plan.

[X] Plan Running Like a Mole

Goals: Get out of the stampede zone, avoid being disqualified, reach Super Team Leaf and update them of the situation.

Means:

Hazou will get off the porch and onto dirt and use Hiding Like a Mole to go underground, without being noticed by the proctors and before the stampede hits him. He will either need to move forward into the mist, or move to the side opposite of where the proctors are, depending on his understanding of where everything is and what is least likely to get him spotted. He will use a Tunneler's Friend to allow himself to breathe while underground.
1. If needed for him to reach dirt while remaining concealed, Hazou may pop a Misterator.
From there, Hazou will move away from the zone quickly, with the goal of reaching the safe zone and Super Team Leaf. Hazou will use his knowledge of the grounds to determine an appropriate place to emerge without being spotted by other contestant. (the hedge maze, a conveniently placed bush near the marquee, etc.) Exclude the tunnel from before as a possibility, as your enemies have knowledge of it. If emerging close to the marquee, check briefly to see if proctors are already there questioning ST Leaf.
Once with Super Team Leaf, update them on the situation. Use hand signals to imply that proctors may be inbound or listening in, and you want everyone on the same page. State the story in such a way that you're not implicated in anything (don't mention where in the crowd you were), and to make it appear to any eavesdroppers that the ST Leaf noticed that the sudden heat wave was a trap to herd people in, that they didn't allow themselves to be herded, and that you were sent in to do recon since you had a means to escape. Include Kazama and Shiba's statements, noting them, and hand signalling that they Shiba is a ninja and may have been trying to keep people herded to do something. Make it clear that you think whoever incited the panic with the explosive tag is an idiot, and that the likely mass disqualifications and possible civilian injuries that would result from that action could get anyone blamed for it kicked out of the tournament.
1. If a proctor is already present, Hazou will use his judgement about whether to rejoin or not based on the context of what's going on. If he does think it appropriate, he will go in and report to the proctor of what happened in front of the mansion largely as he would have to ST Leaf (only lie by omission if possible, and not implicating Hazou in any way). Then ask if the proctor has any instructions for your group.
  1. If the proctor tries to blame Hazou for the incident, he will point out that inciting a panic in a mixed crowd of civilians and ninja is an obviously an idiotic idea due to several obvious reasons, primarily due to the possibility of civilians being harmed. (hinting that maybe this isn't the best time for the proctor to quibble over this). Signal for others in the group to get involved in this effort, as they have their own social specializations that could help to get the proctor to move on and not have a plausible case to blame you.
If able, work with Super Team Leaf to figure out a way to best take advantage of the new situation in order to maximize the amount of points that the group can get. See if you can get Nara involved in the planning, with Keiko's assistance to refine plans.
1. He does suggest that the group may want to go to a proctor and volunteer to help with any issues like civilian injuries if it seems needed. For instance, Noburi could help treat the wounded, provided he can get some chakra loaned to him and be giving somewhere private and discreet to treat his patients. (this is a suggestion - whether he does it or not is up to him)
2. Suggest using a buddy system for the rest of the event, as the remaining competitors may be out to try to eliminate more competition.
3. Nara already has established himself as an information broker. Suggest this be used as a means to find out who our roles counterparts are - with the competition inevitably decreased and the remainder somewhat drunk, others might be more willing to take risks. Alternatively, consider some kind of matchmaking party game. Charades, perhaps?
4. If Shiba and company aren't removed from the event, suggest possibly indicating to a proctor that they may have tried to keep people herded in, and that they may be responsible for the incident. Perhaps use Bonku as a messenger, rather than one of your group? Don't do this if it might increase suspicions on your group.

Ok, I think that covers our bases? I'll be available later in the day to make edits based on suggestions. Other people feel free to use this as a basis for their own variants, if they wish to do so.

MrCogmor · Jun 22, 2018

I think if Mist did a serious investigation where they questioned everyone, put together a timeline, looked for inconsistencies and used process of elimination they could probably find out it was us regardless of what we do.

Enjou · Jun 22, 2018

MrCogmor said:
I think if Mist did a serious investigation where they questioned everyone, put together a timeline, looked for inconsistencies and used process of elimination they could probably find out it was us regardless of what we do.

Maybe. But I doubt they'll be able to do that in a timely manner, and several of the possible witnesses are biased and will try to make up stories to implicate their rivals rather than the legitimate culprits. Regardless, doing nothing is not acceptable, and we need to act with the presumption that we can possibly get away without getting caught.

Emstar · Jun 22, 2018

Velorien said:
Note, however, that everything changes when the crowd hits the closed doors. At that point, the people at the front are going to be crushed by the waves of people behind them who don't realise that the doors are closed. Even in the best case scenario where the doors get opened, you now have 200 people trying to squeeze through a narrow opening into an entrance corridor which also cannot accommodate that many people.

The front door is.... closed?

The front doors are closed.

...

Why!?

Why would the door do this??

Drasky · Jun 22, 2018

Roomba said:
We can literally just walk up to a non-disguised proctor and ask whether the event is still ongoing.

As long as the proctors don't state otherwise the event is still ongoing.

Going towards the proctors to ask that paints a target at out backs and exposes that we are a ninja. A civilian at this moment won't be thinking about the test at all and besides would be scared shitless of the proctors to ask something like that. With so many people in the vicinity I don't trust our chances of not being overheard.

Enjou · Jun 22, 2018

MMKII said:
The front door is.... closed?

The front doors are closed.

...

Why!?

Why would the door do this??

Because someone closed them.

Velorien said:
After making sure that the staff had followed the guests out (they certainly weren't going to stay within the area of effect of scary ninja magic if nobody else was), a conscientious maid pushed the doors closed behind them as if trying to keep the mysterious heatwave confined to the inside of the building.

Shard · Jun 22, 2018

How about using the Subsitution Jutsu to get into the Hedge Maze?

Emstar · Jun 22, 2018

Enjou said:
Because someone closed them.

Someone did indeed.

Shard said:
How about using the Subsitution Jutsu to get into the Hedge Maze?

It seems to be too far away as far as we (us, not Hazo) can tell from the description of things.

Roomba · Jun 22, 2018

Enjou said:
Given this update shouldn't require a super huge plan, I'll take a crack at putting up a plan.

[X] Plan Running Like a Mole

Goals: Get out of the stampede zone, avoid being disqualified, reach Super Team Leaf and update them of the situation

Means:

Hazou will get off the porch and onto dirt and use Hiding Like a Mole to go underground, without being noticed by the proctors and before the stampede hits him. This will likely require moving forward into the Mist, which will help obscure him. He will use a Tunneler's Friend to allow himself to breath.

If this doesn't work for whatever reason, pop a Misterator for a wider area and flee the old fashioned way.

From there, Hazou will move away from the zone quickly, with the goal of reaching the safe zone and Super Team Leaf. Hazou will use his knowledge of the grounds to determine an appropriate place to emerge without being spotted by other contestant. (the hedge maze, a conveniently placed bush near the marquee, etc.) Exclude the tunnel from before as a possibility, as your enemies have knowledge of it. If emerging close to the marquee, check briefly to see if proctors are already there questioning ST Leaf.

Once with Super Team Leaf, update them on the situation. Use hand signals to imply that proctors may be inbound or listening in. State the story in such a way that you're not directly implicated in anything, and to make it appear to any eavesdroppers that the ST Leaf noticed that the temperature change was a trap to herd people in, that they didn't allow themselves to be herded, and that you were sent in to do recon since you had a means to escape. Make it clear that you think whoever incited the panic with the explosive tag is an idiot, and that the likely mass disqualifications and possible civilian injuries that would result from that action could get anyone blamed for it kicked out of the tournament.

If a proctor is already present, Hazou will use his judgement about whether to rejoin or not based on the context of what's going on. If he does think it appropriate, he will go in and notify the proctor of what happened, again without implicating himself or ST Leaf, and ask for instructions. Hazou may suggest that a break room be discretely prepared so Noburi could use his medical jutsu to tend to any civilian wounded, provided he can get some

If the proctor tries to blame Hazou for the incident, he will point out that inciting a panic in a mixed crowd of civilians and ninja is an obviously bad idea due to several obvious reasons, including the losing enough points to get thrown out of the tournament. He'll point out that his group includes the Nara heir and a Mori bloodline user, and that it isn't plausible that two people that intelligent would condone such an idiotic idea, so it isn't really plausible you or your group is responsible.

If able, work with Super Team Leaf to figure out a way to best take advantage of the new situation in order to maximize the amount of points that the group can get. See if you can get Nara to take a lead in planning, with Keiko's assistance to refine plans, using the excuse that you had inhaled a little of the alcohol and are a bit tipsy as an excuse.

He does suggest that the group may want to volunteer Noburi to treat civilian injuries in a break room, to show initiative and leadership expected from chuunin, and just to help people. Though Hazou doesn't expect any injuries that are serious, given the crowd wasn't really that big.

Ok, I think that covers our bases? I'll be available later in the day to make edits based on suggestions. Other people feel free to use this as a basis for their own variants, if they wish to do so.

Seems pretty good, nice and conservative. I concur that we don't need to overdo it for this plan. It would perhaps be nice if we came up with more of an idea for the followup in case Shikamaru tells us to stuff it and fix our own mess.

Enjou said:
If the proctor tries to blame Hazou for the incident, he will point out that inciting a panic in a mixed crowd of civilians and ninja is an obviously bad idea due to several obvious reasons, including the losing enough points to get thrown out of the tournament. He'll point out that his group includes the Nara heir and a Mori bloodline user, and that it isn't plausible that two people that intelligent would condone such an idiotic idea, so it isn't really plausible you or your group is responsible.

Hmm, this sounds a bit too... engineered, for me. How about Hazou, who had a rough night and inhaled some alcohol recently, just tells off the proctor somewhat angrily. He'd say that he knows they've had it for us since the start of the exam with all the harassment we've been forced to endure, including Hazou's role in this event. If the proctors want to pin this on him as well, they should know that they will absolutely have to explain themselves before both the Mizukage and the Hokage.

Can also combine these a bit, remarking at the end that the idea is stupid as hell, and he's in a room with some of the smartest people in Leaf.

MrCogmor said:
I think if Mist did a serious investigation where they questioned everyone, put together a timeline, looked for inconsistencies and used process of elimination they could probably find out it was us regardless of what we do.

I'm not so sure. They could suspect, but the event has so much going on simultaneously, some of the relevant information may just get lost in the noise. They'd also get a lot of fake positives, I reckon.

Drasky said:
As long as the proctors don't state otherwise the event is still ongoing.

Going towards the proctors to ask that paints a target at out backs and exposes that we are a ninja. A civilian at this moment won't be thinking about the test at all and besides would be scared shitless of the proctors to ask something like that. With so many people in the vicinity I don't trust our chances of not being overheard.

The proctors just left to investigate the heat. They haven't had the chance to state anything. I would not be surprised in the slightest if the event is at least suspended until this mess is sorted out.

That it could potentially expose us as ninja to someone eavesdropping is a marginal risk at this point. The small amount of points lost are unlikely to matter.

Sentient Tree · Jun 22, 2018

@Velorien, based on where he last saw the proctors/where they were going, does Hazou think that there are enough proctors close enough to the crowd to use syrup trap on the back of the crowd to stop or reduce the stampede? Assuming that at least some of the proctors have syrup trap or similar jutsu.

Edit: tagged Eaglejarl too in a later post.

Drasky · Jun 22, 2018

Roomba said:
The proctors just left to investigate the heat. They haven't had the chance to state anything. I would not be surprised in the slightest if the event is at least suspended until this mess is sorted out.

Velorien said:
He'd slipped out of the final wave of guests leaving the mansion and concealed himself behind one of the pillars on the wooden raised area by the entrance (the proctors were standing at the top of the steps at the other end, facing away from him).

Not all of them.

eaglejarl · Jun 22, 2018

Enjou said:
I wouldn't mind leaving the planning for the rest of the event to Shikamaru just to get the even done and over with. While I'm enjoying the arc for the most part, I would rather get on with it and move to the next thing as some others have said. We've spent a very large number of updates on the Chuunin exams, and I think many of us would like to get past them, or at least get to the tournament.

There have been more than one comments about this, so let me set expectations: there's one more event after this, then a long break for training, then the tournament. This is OOC information, as is the fact that the next event is one that I came up with and is very different from all the ones you've seen so far. Much more...straightforward. }:>

Cariyaga said:
@Vecht I'm pretty sure it's a bad idea to run: it's been noted that while the people in the cloud can't see us, the few that broke off can (and will likely be interrogated later), and any well-placed proctors would be able to as well

Are there QM posts to this effect? I'm checking in QM chat to make sure I have a clear picture of where everyone is, but it would be good to have existing references.

Roomba said:
Man, I wasn't going to write a plan for this update, as I'm going to be completely unavailable for most of Saturday, but I might just put something together today, and let you guys use it as you want.

Voting closes Saturday morning at 9am eastern time, so not being around after that won't matter much.

Sentient Tree · Jun 22, 2018

Sentient Tree said:
@Velorien, based on where he last saw the proctors/where they were going, does Hazou think that there are enough proctors close enough to the crowd to use syrup trap on the back of the crowd to stop or reduce the stampede? Assuming that at least some of the proctors have syrup trap or similar jutsu.

It occurs to me that I also should tag @eaglejarl. Does Hazou think the proctors are close enough to save everyone?

Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

鸡肉面条汤

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The Shining One

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One and Many

The Shining One

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