On discord I have advocated immediately murdering Shin if we suspect that he has them (because fuck not starting WW4, this is more important). Cari is convinced that we did not. I trust his judgement.
Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest
- Thread starter eaglejarl
- Start date
-
- Tags
- naruto rationalist romance armageddon is looking better and better damn you kishimoto explosions everywhere explosives solve everyone if in doubt surrender to the mercy of zabuza it seemed like a good idea at the time looks like a really bad case of being a jōnin my god. where does the lore end? precommitting is the winning plan screaming in kagome screw the rules i have explosives something bad might still happen sometimes you gotta sociopath stabby zabby subsection c of paragraph 9 should include we can weaponize this so hard
On discord I have advocated immediately murdering Shin if we suspect that he has them (because fuck not starting WW4, this is more important). Cari is convinced that we did not. I trust his judgement.
Cariyaga
Handsome Gentleperson
- Location
- United States
Jiraiya would not have allowed us to, regardless of anything else.
Emstar
The Shining One
- Location
- Trapped in an extradimensional rift.
- Pronouns
- She/They
It was not specified in our allowed exam seal loadout and was specifically barred by Jiraiya when we asked him about OPSEC details (real-time like almost a year ago ).
The main issue I see with this and perhaps the one most devastating to this idea is that, unlike Quirrelmort, we cannot lie worth a damn comparatively speaking.
In addition to that, whoever gets caught out to dry for this mess is basically out of the exam points wise, which would begin to tie an almost literal hangmans noose around Jiraiyas neck if it was us in particular.
We should fuck off and play it OCD safe for the next 8 hours, maybe try and find our contact, and then never speak of this event again.
- Location
- uk
A quick investigation into crowds (i.e. reading Stampede - Wikipedia) suggests that stampedes ('lots of people running somewhere') very rarely cause serious injuries:
> According to experts, true "stampedes" (and "panics") rarely occur except when many people are fleeing in fear, such as from a fire,[6] and trampling by people in such "stampede" conditions rarely causes fatal injuries.[7]
>One word bears a lot of blame here, at least in English. Mention a "stampede" in front of Galea and he starts to look pretty wild-eyed. "This is just absolute nonsense," he says. "It's pure ignorance, and laziness … It gives the impression that it was a mindless crowd only caring about themselves, and they were prepared to crush people." The truth is that people are only directly crushed by others who have no choice in the matter, and the people who can choose don't know what is going on because they're too far away from the epicentre
>"Crowd quakes [or collapses] are a typical reason for crowd disasters, to be distinguished from those resulting from 'mass panic' or 'crowd crushes'," says Dirk Helbing, a computing professor at ETH Zurich. "The idea of the hysterical mass is a myth," says Paul Torrens, a professor at the Center for Geospatial Information Science at the University of Maryland
Hajj crush: how crowd disasters happen, and how they can be avoided
Basically the dangerous thing is when you have 6+ people per square meter, and so no space for anyone to make any movement, and so the crowd acts as a fluid and shockwaves / continuous pressure kill people.
Panicked folks running forward can end in bruises and broken limbs, but not significant amount of deaths; modulo someone being very unlucky. And even then you need something to artificially cosntraint people to a small area; otherwise they will naturally spread out.
> According to experts, true "stampedes" (and "panics") rarely occur except when many people are fleeing in fear, such as from a fire,[6] and trampling by people in such "stampede" conditions rarely causes fatal injuries.[7]
>One word bears a lot of blame here, at least in English. Mention a "stampede" in front of Galea and he starts to look pretty wild-eyed. "This is just absolute nonsense," he says. "It's pure ignorance, and laziness … It gives the impression that it was a mindless crowd only caring about themselves, and they were prepared to crush people." The truth is that people are only directly crushed by others who have no choice in the matter, and the people who can choose don't know what is going on because they're too far away from the epicentre
>"Crowd quakes [or collapses] are a typical reason for crowd disasters, to be distinguished from those resulting from 'mass panic' or 'crowd crushes'," says Dirk Helbing, a computing professor at ETH Zurich. "The idea of the hysterical mass is a myth," says Paul Torrens, a professor at the Center for Geospatial Information Science at the University of Maryland
Hajj crush: how crowd disasters happen, and how they can be avoided
Basically the dangerous thing is when you have 6+ people per square meter, and so no space for anyone to make any movement, and so the crowd acts as a fluid and shockwaves / continuous pressure kill people.
Panicked folks running forward can end in bruises and broken limbs, but not significant amount of deaths; modulo someone being very unlucky. And even then you need something to artificially cosntraint people to a small area; otherwise they will naturally spread out.
I'll also point out that the proctors are biased as fuck against us, and they only need to say that they find it plausible we're responsible for this mess with the barest shred of that being true.
- Location
- uk
I think completely pretending nothing is happening is way more suspicious than offering to help, or at least asking for instructions one things calm down a bit. It is not what Hazou or really any other uninvolved ninja would do if really innocent.
I think that the only thing that really matters here is minimising the number of times we have to roll Deceit. Each new roll is a new chance of -30k points. So just do whatever requires the least lying and we're good.
Emstar
The Shining One
- Location
- Trapped in an extradimensional rift.
- Pronouns
- She/They
Noted
I still want to run anything by Shikamaru and Keiko and I think the emphasis on the next plan should be in the mechanics of our great escape with some details about what to do in case of proctor shenanigans afterwards.
I honestly wouldn't mind hiding under a bush for the next 8 hours if we need to but that may look more suspicious than otherwise.
- Location
- Yes.
...umm...
So long as we only have to lie about why we did so once.
- Location
- Yes.
It's easy to lie only once. Just lie really, really badly.
And then tell the truth one we're in T&I.
- Location
- uk
Stampedes *happen* when many people are fleeing in fear, but even then "trampling by people in such "stampede" conditions rarely causes fatal injuries"
We don't have to lie about anything for that to get us DQ'd.
Proctor: "The traitor isn't around. He's been in hiding since the incident. I find it plausible he's responsible, given that. I'm DQ-ing him."
Emstar
The Shining One
- Location
- Trapped in an extradimensional rift.
- Pronouns
- She/They
I think the only question relevant for us as far as the fast moving crowd is concerned is do we need a further distraction in case some Chunin in the crowd make their saving throw on being able to see through the mist.
- Location
- CA
After my comment last time, I think I should explicitly say I really liked this update.
I really strong support the idea of just leaving, as quickly as possible without drawing attention. The best argument for it is that it is explicitly the sort of thing he'd do if he was really completely innocent. After all, keep in mind the fact that he really was in a possible life-or-death situation earlier, and can convincingly say that he survived mostly by virtue of teammate intervention at the last hour. This is followed by some sort of complex gambit that probably involved seals, at a time his attacker would have likely expected him to still be indisposed--which, from his perspective, looks a lot like a frame job.
He also has no reason to trust Mist's objectivity, and the last two events are enough for him to think Mist is probably setting him up to fail. So when you combine someone having it out for him with a set of judges who have it out for him, the most rational thing to do is just run away. Don't run damage control, don't talk to a proctor, don't try to frame someone else, just get out and get to safety with the others so that no one can try to murder him again.
(If anyone wonders why he was near the event, this would be a good time for a slightly hysterical complaint about having to be the one there to look into this weird heat thing, due to his abilities, despite the fact he was nearly murdered. His teammates are such jerks, you don't even know)
It was mentioned earlier in the thread that digging a tunnel might get him dinged for property damage, and that's really useful here, because that's something he can get in trouble for and something he won't want to talk about. That's reason enough for him to be kind of nervous and for him not to talk to a proctor about any of this unless they seek him out. The most useful thing for any lie is for people to fill in their own blanks, and for you to avoid contradicting yourself or the known facts to the greatest degree possible.
In other words:
I really strong support the idea of just leaving, as quickly as possible without drawing attention. The best argument for it is that it is explicitly the sort of thing he'd do if he was really completely innocent. After all, keep in mind the fact that he really was in a possible life-or-death situation earlier, and can convincingly say that he survived mostly by virtue of teammate intervention at the last hour. This is followed by some sort of complex gambit that probably involved seals, at a time his attacker would have likely expected him to still be indisposed--which, from his perspective, looks a lot like a frame job.
He also has no reason to trust Mist's objectivity, and the last two events are enough for him to think Mist is probably setting him up to fail. So when you combine someone having it out for him with a set of judges who have it out for him, the most rational thing to do is just run away. Don't run damage control, don't talk to a proctor, don't try to frame someone else, just get out and get to safety with the others so that no one can try to murder him again.
(If anyone wonders why he was near the event, this would be a good time for a slightly hysterical complaint about having to be the one there to look into this weird heat thing, due to his abilities, despite the fact he was nearly murdered. His teammates are such jerks, you don't even know)
It was mentioned earlier in the thread that digging a tunnel might get him dinged for property damage, and that's really useful here, because that's something he can get in trouble for and something he won't want to talk about. That's reason enough for him to be kind of nervous and for him not to talk to a proctor about any of this unless they seek him out. The most useful thing for any lie is for people to fill in their own blanks, and for you to avoid contradicting yourself or the known facts to the greatest degree possible.
In other words:
Well technically they can just DQ us for no reason whenever they like and then pretend that they had a reason afterwards.
- Location
- Yes.
They are, however, motivated by wanting to DQ us in the most humiliating fashion possible, with as many witnesses as possible for maximize disgrace levels.
No. We don't know how many people are going to be eliminated here, but I'd guess maybe 25% of the remaining ninja at minimum. Likely more.
I'd also like to say that I did too!
In which case nothing we do here matters, because a proctor that doesn't even care about the appearance of plausibility will do that anyways.
- Location
- uk
Our only chance is to seduce every proctor so that they don't want to do that.
- Location
- The Maple Syrup Mountains
If they're that vindictive and willing to pin the blame on us, nothing we can do will stop them from saying we were responsible. We can't really pin the blame on someone else, because half of it was us and we don't know who did the other half.
If they're going to DQ us just because we can't prove we didn't do it, we can't stop them. I don't think that's likely though, and in the other cases we still want to minimize how many times we roll deceit and risk a critfail.
If they do try that, then at the very least we can lodge a formal protest. But the more suspicious we seem, the less likely that would be to succeed.
Emstar
The Shining One
- Location
- Trapped in an extradimensional rift.
- Pronouns
- She/They
Except if they don't actually have a solid reason then Jiraiya gets to roast 7 herbs and spices out of them from a political perspective.
Especially if they hung us out to dry on -30k points. Do you know how bullshit that sounds to an outside observer? That we were a front runner and suddenly hung out to dry for that level of penalty despite no witnesses to the contrary putting us at the scene?
Not even taking into account that we were left to die in a tunnel on their watch and there's a tunnel dugout to prove it that they didn't catch either. If it comes to that then Auntie has to swallow some crow, and if she has to do that then whoever made the BS call on that will be next on the chopping block.
- Location
- Yes.
We were at the scene, though; and people saw us in the area.