Remove ads

Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

Voting is open for the next 1 day, 6 hours
Reader mode
Adept_Woodwright said:
Assumptions:
  • Renewal rate: 300 Genin/year in Leaf, about 3000/year globally
  • Age 12-16 inclusive are Genin
  • Age 17-22 inclusive are Chunin
  • Age above 23 inclusive are Jonin
  • Wanted ~ 1000 Genin in Leaf
  • Wanted ~367 Chunin in Leaf
  • Wanted ~133 Jonin in Leaf
  • Wanted ~4 Jonin above the age of 70 globally

Total Ninja: 1500.0912188460543
Genin: 1000.3752
Chunin: 370.58109064704
Jonin: 129.13492819901376

Jonin by age
Jonin less than 30: 79.5233679741225
Jonin 30-40: 31.555263724950777
Jonin 40-50: 11.522930027940896
Jonin 50-60: 4.48721468082732
Jonin 60-70: 1.6907622314310868
Jonin over 70: 0.355389559741166
cohort =
[300, 210.0, 178.5, 162.4, # 12-15
149.4, 107.6, 80.7, 62.9, 49.7, # 16-20
39.8, 29.8, 20.9, 15.7, 12.2, # 21-25
9.7, 8.2, 7.0, 5.9, 5.1, #26-30
4.5, 3.9, 3.5, 3.1, 2.8, #31-35
2.5, 2.3, 2.1, 1.9, 1.7, #36-40
1.5, 1.4, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1, # 41-45
1.0, 0.9, 0.8, 0.73, 0.66 # 46-50
0.60, 0.55, 0.50, 0.45, 0.41, # 51-55
0.38, 0.34, 0.31, 0.28, 0.26, # 56-60
0.23, 0.21, 0.19, 0.173, 0.155, # 61-65
0.138, 0.123, 0.108, 0.095, 0.083, # 66-70
0.071, 0.060, 0.049, 0.037, 0.027, # 71-75
0.018, 0.010] # 76, 77

fJo = 0.09 # flat jonin mortality
deathRate =
[ .3, .15, .09, .08, .28, # 13 14 15 16 17
.25, .22, .21, .20, .25, # 18 19 20 21 22
.3, .25, .22, .21, .15, # 23 24 25 26 27
.15, .15, .14, .12, .12, # 28 29 30 31 32
.12, .11, .1, .1 , .1 , # 33 34 35 36 37
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 38 39 40 41 42
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 43 44 45 46 47
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 48 49 50 51 52
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 53 54 55 56 57
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 58 59 60 61 62
.10, .10, .10, .11, .11, # 63 64 65 66 67
.12, .12, .13, .14, .16, # 68 69 70 71 72
.19, .23, .28, .34, .41] # 73 74 75 76 77

import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as pp

fJo = 0.09 # flat jonin mortality
deathRate = [ .3, .15, .09, .08, .28, # 13 14 15 16 17
.25, .22, .21, .20, .25, # 18 19 20 21 22
.3, .25, .22, .21, .15, # 23 24 25 26 27
.15, .15, .14, .12, .12, # 28 29 30 31 32
.12, .11, .1, .1 , .1 , # 33 34 35 36 37
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 38 39 40 41 42
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 43 44 45 46 47
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 48 49 50 51 52
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 53 54 55 56 57
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 58 59 60 61 62
.10, .10, .10, .11, .11, # 63 64 65 66 67
.12, .12, .13, .14, .16, # 68 69 70 71 72
.19, .23, .28, .34, .41] # 73 74 75 76 77

cohort = [300]
#cohort = [3000]
age = [12]
for r in deathRate:
age.append(age[-1]+1)
cohort.append(cohort[-1]*(1-r))

pp.figure()
pp.plot(age, cohort)
print('Total Ninja: ', sum(cohort))
print('Genin: ', sum(cohort[0:5]))
print('Chunin: ',sum(cohort[5:11]))
print('Jonin: ', sum(cohort[11:]))
print('Jonin less than 30: ', sum(cohort[11:18]))
print('Jonin 30-40: ', sum(cohort[18:28]))
print('Jonin 40-50: ', sum(cohort[28:38]))
print('Jonin 50-60: ', sum(cohort[38:48]))
print('Jonin 60-70: ', sum(cohort[48:58]))
print('Jonin over 70: ', sum(cohort[58:]))
pp.figure()
pp.plot(age[1:], deathRate)

The handy thing about looking at the leaf statistics is that it is about a 10th of the global ninja population (1500 of 10000-20000) - so get the global statistics by multiplying by 10.

Possible limitations
  • 300 new Genin every year might be high - I needed a large value to get enough Genin to live through the death world.
  • I went with 500 combined Chunin/Jonin to ensure every Genin has a team leader. This leaves ~170 total Chunin and Jonin to run S/A/B rank missions without a Genin team (pretty sure it is canon that there are high ranking ninja without teams)
  • Mortality is spikey - Genin death rate starts high and plummets, but as soon as they are assigned as Chunin (and take dangerous missions) the death rate skyrockets again. When they approach Jonin, the death rate once again reaches a peak, because of more dangerous missions and bounties.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Can you put together a few plots of this with matplotlib or something?

It's just really hard to read arrays of data.
 
Last edited:
Alright guys, we're down to the nitty gritty for the Chakra Quantification Grant Proposal, and need to figure out exactly how we're going about it.

Options:
  1. Develop (or find) a seal that takes an exact amount of chakra to activate.
    • Pros:
      • Makes measurement of chakra really easy
    • Cons:
      • We don't actually have a way to be sure any given seal we develop is using an exact amount of chakra without fairly extensive testing
  2. Use a combination of using a bunch of different jutsu and basic (IRL, anyway) arithmetic/statistics to determine whether techniques take a specified amount of chakra on a per-person basis.
    • Pros:
      • Relatively-guaranteed to determine the basics necessary for further research, and if our out of character numbers match in-character numbers.
    • Cons:
      • Does not actually show that chakra use between different people is the same (IE Dispel might cost 1 chakra for one person and 3 for another)
Does anyone have other ideas?
 
KaGoGoGadgetMe said:
Pretty sure it has been discussed and dismissed before: alternate version of "X chakra to activate seal" might be "X chakra to satiate N kikaichu", where N is say 5-10 in order to account for per-beetle variance.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

We probably don't want to write clan-specific stuff into the proposal - it could be looked at dubiously by our political opponents ("Why, exactly, do you need to know how much chakra the beetles drain?").

@Cariyaga, I'd say proposal 2 is likely our best bet. Finishing it would even make creating the seal for proposal 1 easier (though not necessarily easy, seals being seals and all), which might then make doing advanced chakra-analysis smoother.
 
I should note that Hazō's XP curve is canonically above average for a Hazō due to the hivemind's influence.

This represents, among other things, the hivemind causing Hazō to make more optimal decisions.
 
Velorien said:
I should note that Hazō's XP curve is canonically above average for a Hazō due to the hivemind's influence.

This represents, among other things, the hivemind causing Hazō to make more optimal decisions.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
The other things are the stupid situations we get him into and out of aren't they.
e:
Erolki said:
We probably don't want to write clan-specific stuff into the proposal - it could be looked at dubiously by our political opponents ("Why, exactly, do you need to know how much chakra the beetles drain?").

@Cariyaga, I'd say proposal 2 is likely our best bet. Finishing it would even make creating the seal for proposal 1 easier (though not necessarily easy, seals being seals and all), which might then make doing advanced chakra-analysis smoother.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I'd ask @Inferno Vulpix to sell Proposal 1, as Proposal 2 is mine, and that might have affected my phrasing there unintentionally.
 
Last edited:
Cariyaga said:
Develop (or find) a seal that takes an exact amount of chakra to activate
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Assumptions:
  1. Chakra is just another form of energy, hence 1 CP is equivalent to K Joules.
  2. EN has a way to measure temperature.

Now we need a seal that can convert Chakra to a measurable form of energy like heat, electicity or light with a fixed efficiency.

As in
0 <= efficiency <= 1
1 is perfect chakra conversion with no leakage.
0 is No chakra conversion

Chakra input = x CP
Energy output = efficiency * x * K Joules

The energy output is then to be measured.

I don't remember if we have a seal that generates heat or electricity, but we have the night light seal that generates light.

So if we create a closed system (thermally insulated from surroundings and opaque to light (and EM radiation if possible) ) consisting of:
  1. a compartment containing 1 L water which has a thermometer in it.
  2. a separate compartment containing the night light seal/ heat generator seal.
Both the compartments are separated by a thermal conducting partition.

Moving on to actually measuring Chakra.

I am assuming that since the compartments are optically opaque no light is propagated out of the system and gets converted to heat.

Keep pumping Chakra into the night light seal until the water temperature increases by say 5 degrees. This can be 1 CP, 0.1 CP .... set such that an average ninja has 100 CP.

This works because the amount of energy needed to change the temperature of a fixed quantity of water is constant (as long as we don't take it past the boiling point).

This is just me barely remembering 11th grade Thermodynamics. Dunno how viable all this is in the Elemental Nations.
 
Last edited:
Remove ads
ATTENTION ALL MARKED FOR DEATH PLAYERS:

You may now react with "Screaming in Kagome" using the chrome extension developed by myself and @Dissonance.

Now also available for Firefox and Firefox for Android.
I recommend using Chrome Store Foxified if you want to use this for Firefox.

I am so, so sorry.
​
​
Changes:
  • Thanks to @DAKKA! for figuring out compatibility with Firefox.
  • Thanks to @Solonarv for Firefox addon compatibility.


Screaming in Kagome extension has been disabled due to issues with forum migration.
 
Last edited:
Kiba said:
There are more than one Hazō?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
It's doubtful that he's the world's only bearer of the name.
Vecht said:
ATTENTION ALL MARKED FOR DEATH PLAYERS:

You may now react with "Screaming in Kagome" using the chrome extension developed by myself and @Dissonance.

I am so, so sorry.​
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
It seems like leaving a different reaction erases all "Screaming in Kagome" reactions. Or possibly hides them?

Edit: OK, I think it hides them until you refresh the page.
 
Last edited:
Vecht said:
ATTENTION ALL MARKED FOR DEATH PLAYERS:

You may now react with "Screaming in Kagome" using the chrome extension developed by myself and @Dissonance.

I am so, so sorry.​
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Nit: you should insert the emoticon to the left of the `list` link, not at the end. My immersion!
If this is on github I'm happy to PR that change. Easiest to just use `postRatingOutputs.prepend` instead of `postRatingOutputs.append`
 
Last edited:
Reader mode
You must login or register to reply here.
Voting is open for the next 1 day, 6 hours
Remove ads
Back
Top