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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Have we considered shifting to quantum stats? Spend XP to adjust the wavefunction of our skills, which will briefly collapse upon a skill check, before quickly decohering due to random interaction back into a probability cloud of skills?
 
Anderkent said:
@eaglejarl Some more thought on skill pyramid:

Current restrictions on N+1 skills at level X+1 require N levels at level X, plus validity at every step, mean that you can only build skill columns; for five skills at level 5, you need 4 skills at each level below five.

This is because to construct a pyramid like this:

OOO
OO
O

you had to at some point encounter this:

OO
OOO
O

which is illegal.

I suggest instead making the rule that at every level you can have TWO more skills than at previous level, allowing this construction:

OOOO
OO
O

which you can lift arbitrarily high. So you have groups of 7 skills at different heights, each levelled up to where you want the top four skills to be.

(This is assuming we want an inverted pyramid. Back when we were changing systems, I thought the goal was a straight up pyramid, where you had to have less lower-level skills than the top-level ones)
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Right. The way the old rule was written, it resulted in columns that could be 1-larger than the smallest of the AB levels below it. The way it was written, however, made it look like the intent was to get inverted pyramids.

The way the current rule is written, it looks like it is supposed to give us columns without obtrusions, but instead results in a large low-base pyramid.

We deliberately moved away from wanting an inverted pyramid - my approach right now is to adopt the old style that actually results in columns, while re-writing it to make it clear that columns are the natural result.

"To get N skills at Aspect level M, one must have at least N-1 skills at all Aspect levels < M at the conclusion of the move. All interim steps must be consistent"
Is functionally identical to
"To get N skills at Aspect level M, one must have at least N-1 skills at Aspect level M-1 at the conclusion of the move. All interim steps must be consistent"

But in the first one, one cannot possibly construct a rules-consistent yet impossible skillset by making a new character from whole-cloth.

Anderkent said:
Why the fat bottoms instead of straight up columns?
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Partially, because at first I got a chunin at like 14.5 years old, with only 10 skills to their name, mostly worthless. As I considered this and our own character sheets, that seemed unlikely to happen in practice, so I arranged something more like what we see in our own characters.

MMKII said:
3XP/day is our average gain for our talent pool, but we are notably above average. Not geniuses, but closer to that end of the bell curve than average IIRC.

Perhaps if one supposes a normal distribution centered at like 2XP/day, it may reflect more accurately on such an analysis. Mid teens and mid twenties for Chunin/Jonin fits well with my personal headcanon though.

Does this take into account doublecost skills and leveling ninjutsu? These seem to be a nontrivial time sink.
That may be negligible for low-chunin... OTOH, I would expect Jonin to know a lot, and be fairly proficient at many of them.
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I thought 3/day was the average - that we often average 4-5, despite our natural talent coefficient, due to 'above average quality plans'. Weren't we once told that we weren't particularly notable compared to most Mist talent in our generation - which we've delighted in rubbing in their collective faces?

I'll see if I can dig up that bit, but that's been a while. If you're at the same, good luck!

It does not take into account elemental technique or double cost savings/expense. I found that high chakra capacity and a couple high elemental techniques would often close to cancel out, when I was doing the Keiko analysis. For the first pass, Ill stick without, but once we iron out the process I'd be happy to go back and stick Chakra Capacity and Elemental Techniques into the mix and see how it hashes out.

Off hand, I'd predict that you'd end up with Chakra Capacity in the 40s for a low Jonin, supporting an elemental technique in the 50s and 40s. 40*41/2 = 820. Plus Double Cost minus half cost at the same level (remember, highest elemental is full cost, effectively) shifts the total by 410 XP, so a little less that half a year forward. A non-chakra focused build would ignore that.
 
Adept_Woodwright said:
Right. The way the old rule was written, it resulted in columns that could be 1-larger than the smallest of the AB levels below it. The way it was written, however, made it look like the intent was to get inverted pyramids.

The way the current rule is written, it looks like it is supposed to give us columns without obtrusions, but instead results in a large low-base pyramid.

We deliberately moved away from wanting an inverted pyramid - my approach right now is to adopt the old style that actually results in columns, while re-writing it to make it clear that columns are the natural result.

"To get N skills at Aspect level M, one must have at least N-1 skills at all Aspect levels < M at the conclusion of the move. All interim steps must be consistent"
Is functionally identical to
"To get N skills at Aspect level M, one must have at least N-1 skills at Aspect level M-1 at the conclusion of the move. All interim steps must be consistent"

But in the first one, one cannot possibly construct a rules-consistent yet impossible skillset by making a new character from whole-cloth.


Partially, because at first I got a chunin at like 14.5 years old, with only 10 skills to their name, mostly worthless. As I considered this and our own character sheets, that seemed unlikely to happen in practice, so I arranged something more like what we see in our own characters.

I thought 3/day was the average - that we often average 4-5, despite our natural talent coefficient, due to 'above average quality plans'. Weren't we once told that we weren't particularly notable compared to most Mist talent in our generation - which we've delighted in rubbing in their collective faces?

I'll see if I can dig up that bit, but that's been a while. If you're at the same, good luck!

It does not take into account elemental technique or double cost savings/expense. I found that high chakra capacity and a couple high elemental techniques would often close to cancel out, when I was doing the Keiko analysis. For the first pass, Ill stick without, but once we iron out the process I'd be happy to go back and stick Chakra Capacity and Elemental Techniques into the mix and see how it hashes out.

Off hand, I'd predict that you'd end up with Chakra Capacity in the 40s for a low Jonin, supporting an elemental technique in the 50s and 40s. 40*41/2 = 820. Plus Double Cost minus half cost at the same level (remember, highest elemental is full cost, effectively) shifts the total by 410 XP, so a little less that half a year forward. A non-chakra focused build would ignore that.
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3/day is significantly above average.
 
eaglejarl said:
Let me see if I can help.

We defined a curve where the average ninja is at 50% and people like Itachi and Jiraiya are at 99%. That curve defines your base XP -- how much you get per day just for not dying. We've deliberately been a bit cagey about where the kids fall on the curve but I can say that, although they are not 99%ers, they are well above average. That said, your percentile dictates what the default award is, and you have frequently exceeded that number by a good margin based on making good plans, which pushes you farther up the curve than your base would suggest.

Are the kids prodigies? It depends on your definition of "prodigy". They are not prodigies by Kishimoto standards -- they don't magically have all the skills without having to do any work or etc. In the real world they would definitely be in the Talented and Gifted program but they probably wouldn't be the valedictorian if they were going to a reasonably-sized school.
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Ok. I could have sworn I remembered being told that we were allowed to go on the "suicide mission" because we weren't shining stars among the Mist genin, but I'll take this as evidence to the contrary. 2 XP/day for the average schmuck it is.
 
Adept_Woodwright said:
Ok. I could have sworn I remembered being told that we were allowed to go on the "suicide mission" because we weren't shining stars among the Mist genin, but I'll take this as evidence to the contrary. 2 XP/day for the average schmuck it is.
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It's a lie by Shikigami. But we were definitely not considered "cream of the crop", which somehow ended us beating out all Mist competitors..So what do I know?
 
Adept_Woodwright said:
Ok. I could have sworn I remembered being told that we were allowed to go on the "suicide mission" because we weren't shining stars among the Mist genin, but I'll take this as evidence to the contrary. 2 XP/day for the average schmuck it is.
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We were, but that was psuedo retconned for consistency so that we didnt get nerfed to hell. The issue was that a good XP curve wasnt really decided upon IIRC
 
Radvic said:
Have we considered shifting to quantum stats? Spend XP to adjust the wavefunction of our skills, which will briefly collapse upon a skill check, before quickly decohering due to random interaction back into a probability cloud of skills?
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No, that's in our quest. Stop leaking mechanics details!
 
XP is not this integer-y, I think.

I'd peg normal XP rates at somewhere between 2 and 3 per day, and ours is somewhere between 3 and 4 (the QMs have stated that ours, at least, is not an integer). We are known to be in the top 25% of ninja by raw skill.

Meanwhile the Itachi's of the world can get anywhere up to ridiculous numbers like 10 XP/day. I wouldn't be surprised if Ami got 7 per day, and just in general the upper end of the bell curve goes surprisingly far.
 
Ok. Revising to 2 XP hoses Jonin pretty bad, but here's a palatable solution. Selective pressure moves the average talent coefficient with age - by the time you're Jonin, you're more likely to have survived if you were above average in talent, so the average Jonin talent coefficient can still be 3/day (or else you end up with average Jonin not being a thing until they're 25 or older - which I don't think meshes with what we've seen.

Genin average - 2
Chunin average - 2.5
Jonin average - 3

This shifts my values to:
talent coefficient = 2.5
lifetime XP = 5042
# 43 - 2
# 33 - 2
# 23 - 4
# 13 - 5
# 1 - 10
(Could be at age 15.5 if stops at 0 for just AB (lifetime XP at 4064)

talent coefficient = 3
lifetime XP = 12939
# 63 - 2
# 53 - 2
# 43 - 2
# 33 - 3
# 23 - 4
# 13 - 5
# 1 - 10
Could be at age 21 if stops at 0 for just AB (lifetime XP at 11176)

Better?
So 16 ish for a starting Chunin.
and 22 ish for a starting Jonin.

@Inferno Vulpix - using Integer-y numbers because it makes approximations a bit easier, for the average case.

Edited to make clearer that these numbers indeed reflect values for those just starting out
 
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Even if average is 2, I would expect it to be somewhat akin to a normal distribution anyway. That leaves room for younger Chunin/Jonin than average. This seems sensible.

I think the average Joe reaching low Jonin (which is what I think those stats are, not average Jonin) at 25 is mostly sensible.
 
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There's another selection effect in that we don't really meet average Jonin soon after their promotion; they're probably out in the field on long-running missions. The young ones that we hear of and interact with would be ones being fast-tracked because of their talent.
 
I expect most people to be more well rounded by the time they hit Jonin as well.
 
Inferno Vulpix said:
XP is not this integer-y, I think.

I'd peg normal XP rates at somewhere between 2 and 3 per day, and ours is somewhere between 3 and 4 (the QMs have stated that ours, at least, is not an integer). We are known to be in the top 25% of ninja by raw skill.

Meanwhile the Itachi's of the world can get anywhere up to ridiculous numbers like 10 XP/day. I wouldn't be surprised if Ami got 7 per day, and just in general the upper end of the bell curve goes surprisingly far.
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Yeah, something like a lognormal would fit my intuitions better? There's a clear minimum of 0, and realistically a cutoff above that, because ninja below some potential xp/day just don't make it.

Maybe something like lognormal, mean 2.2, each stdev = a factor of 1.4? That puts most people between 2 and 3, us in the top 25% or so. It still doesn't quite fit the tails, though, with about 1/1500 being 6.5xp/day or above and about 1/30000 (!) being 9xp/day or above.
 
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Assumptions:
  • Renewal rate: 300 Genin/year in Leaf, about 3000/year globally
  • Age 12-16 inclusive are Genin
  • Age 17-22 inclusive are Chunin
  • Age above 23 inclusive are Jonin
  • Wanted ~ 1000 Genin in Leaf
  • Wanted ~367 Chunin in Leaf
  • Wanted ~133 Jonin in Leaf
  • Wanted ~4 Jonin above the age of 70 globally

Total Ninja: 1500.0912188460543
Genin: 1000.3752
Chunin: 370.58109064704
Jonin: 129.13492819901376

Jonin by age
Jonin less than 30: 79.5233679741225
Jonin 30-40: 31.555263724950777
Jonin 40-50: 11.522930027940896
Jonin 50-60: 4.48721468082732
Jonin 60-70: 1.6907622314310868
Jonin over 70: 0.355389559741166
cohort =
[300, 210.0, 178.5, 162.4, # 12-15
149.4, 107.6, 80.7, 62.9, 49.7, # 16-20
39.8, 29.8, 20.9, 15.7, 12.2, # 21-25
9.7, 8.2, 7.0, 5.9, 5.1, #26-30
4.5, 3.9, 3.5, 3.1, 2.8, #31-35
2.5, 2.3, 2.1, 1.9, 1.7, #36-40
1.5, 1.4, 1.3, 1.2, 1.1, # 41-45
1.0, 0.9, 0.8, 0.73, 0.66 # 46-50
0.60, 0.55, 0.50, 0.45, 0.41, # 51-55
0.38, 0.34, 0.31, 0.28, 0.26, # 56-60
0.23, 0.21, 0.19, 0.173, 0.155, # 61-65
0.138, 0.123, 0.108, 0.095, 0.083, # 66-70
0.071, 0.060, 0.049, 0.037, 0.027, # 71-75
0.018, 0.010] # 76, 77

fJo = 0.09 # flat jonin mortality
deathRate =
[ .3, .15, .09, .08, .28, # 13 14 15 16 17
.25, .22, .21, .20, .25, # 18 19 20 21 22
.3, .25, .22, .21, .15, # 23 24 25 26 27
.15, .15, .14, .12, .12, # 28 29 30 31 32
.12, .11, .1, .1 , .1 , # 33 34 35 36 37
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 38 39 40 41 42
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 43 44 45 46 47
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 48 49 50 51 52
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 53 54 55 56 57
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 58 59 60 61 62
.10, .10, .10, .11, .11, # 63 64 65 66 67
.12, .12, .13, .14, .16, # 68 69 70 71 72
.19, .23, .28, .34, .41] # 73 74 75 76 77

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import numpy as np
from matplotlib import pyplot as pp

fJo = 0.09 # flat jonin mortality
deathRate = [ .3, .15, .09, .08, .28, # 13 14 15 16 17
.25, .22, .21, .20, .25, # 18 19 20 21 22
.3, .25, .22, .21, .15, # 23 24 25 26 27
.15, .15, .14, .12, .12, # 28 29 30 31 32
.12, .11, .1, .1 , .1 , # 33 34 35 36 37
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 38 39 40 41 42
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 43 44 45 46 47
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 48 49 50 51 52
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 53 54 55 56 57
fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, fJo, # 58 59 60 61 62
.10, .10, .10, .11, .11, # 63 64 65 66 67
.12, .12, .13, .14, .16, # 68 69 70 71 72
.19, .23, .28, .34, .41] # 73 74 75 76 77

cohort = [300]
#cohort = [3000]
age = [12]
for r in deathRate:
age.append(age[-1]+1)
cohort.append(cohort[-1]*(1-r))

pp.figure()
pp.plot(age, cohort)
print('Total Ninja: ', sum(cohort))
print('Genin: ', sum(cohort[0:5]))
print('Chunin: ',sum(cohort[5:11]))
print('Jonin: ', sum(cohort[11:]))
print('Jonin less than 30: ', sum(cohort[11:18]))
print('Jonin 30-40: ', sum(cohort[18:28]))
print('Jonin 40-50: ', sum(cohort[28:38]))
print('Jonin 50-60: ', sum(cohort[38:48]))
print('Jonin 60-70: ', sum(cohort[48:58]))
print('Jonin over 70: ', sum(cohort[58:]))
pp.figure()
pp.plot(age[1:], deathRate)

The handy thing about looking at the leaf statistics is that it is about a 10th of the global ninja population (1500 of 10000-20000) - so get the global statistics by multiplying by 10.

Possible limitations
  • 300 new Genin every year might be high - I needed a large value to get enough Genin to live through the death world.
  • I went with 500 combined Chunin/Jonin to ensure every Genin has a team leader. This leaves ~170 total Chunin and Jonin to run S/A/B rank missions without a Genin team (pretty sure it is canon that there are high ranking ninja without teams)
  • Mortality is spikey - Genin death rate starts high and plummets, but as soon as they are assigned as Chunin (and take dangerous missions) the death rate skyrockets again. When they approach Jonin, the death rate once again reaches a peak, because of more dangerous missions and bounties.
Edit: Added figures
 
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