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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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MMKII said:
So obviously we need to begin thinking of contingencies for what to do if Shika betrays us in Round 2 or something derails the keikaku.

Yknow, just in case enemy agency blah blah and all that.
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It's probably a fair bet that Nara's team won't be able to convince literally everyone to assault the fort. Anyone want to do the numbers on how many are needed to get Uplift to the tournament?
 
TaliesinSkye said:
It's probably a fair bet that Nara's team won't be able to convince literally everyone to assault the fort. Anyone want to do the numbers on how many are needed to get Uplift to the tournament?
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If he lures something close to ~2 Red Teams not including members from Team Asuma then I think its worth it.
 
eaglejarl said:
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"Me too," Doigama said. "I'm good, but probably not so good that I could make the top sixteen on my own. I'm not dropping out, though. If I make the cutoff for the tournament, I'm going to fight."

"Not me," Gomi said. "I mean, I'm in with the plan, but I'm bowing out of the tournament. Genjutsu spec is too fragile in a straight fight without support, especially since word is out that that's what I am. All they have to do is not look at me as they close and I'm done. If I make the top sixteen, I'm out."
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You know who doesn't speak up during any of this? Katō Yūto.

Still convinced he's a filthy liar pulling the same con that Hazou tried to run. "I couldn't punch my way out of a paper bag." Sound familiar?
 
Cariyaga said:
Escusi? Are we talking about the Nara that have a conspiracy theory that Hazou is a competent mastermind? Those Nara are right just because?
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As much fun as the Shikaku running gag is, I feel that Hazou gave a fairly definitive 'I'm not a mastermind I barely know what I'm doing' signal to Shikaku when he brought up the theory and Shikaku accordingly downgraded 'mastermind Hazou' to a very low-probability possibility.

Kagome, on the other hand, Shikaku will never outright discard what he says, and that leads to interesting considerations, as we saw in the interlude where the two of them discussed lupchanzen.
 
Briefvoice said:
Coming from an RPG background, this is actually the recommended tactic for a GM to roleplay a character smarter than themselves. In a word, cheat. Use information you have access to as GM and then work out some rationalization for how they could have reasoned to it.
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I know, and I always disliked this approach in fiction in general. Particularly in PnP, where having what is essentially a GM insert tends to trample over player agency really easily.
 
Inferno Vulpix said:
Kagome, on the other hand, Shikaku will never outright discard what he says, and that leads to interesting considerations, as we saw in the interlude where the two of them discussed lupchanzen.
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The revelation that sky squid are real was one of the best twists this game ever pulled. Minor in the grand scheme of things, but it totally dispelled any idea that players can reliably tell when Kagome is being crazy versus when he just knows more than we do.
 
MadScientist said:
"That is an interesting proposal," said Hazou, "Yes. I suppose we could do that."

Akimichi relaxed somewhat. Nara didn't.

"Unfortunately," Hazou continued, "I have already made a precommitment to never give in to ultimatums."

It was hours later when Nara woke up. His head was killing him. From what he managed to piece together from the blurred noises the medics were making, the drugs would get through his system by the end of the week, but until then he wouldn't be able to communicate in more than word salad.
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Funny, but this would not be sound and following this general strategy would probably ensure you always lose out(*). Nara was offering us an opportunity we otherwise wouldn't have (to mutual benefit), and himself precommitting such that he could ensure he would not be exploited, while leaving us few other options. This is substantially different from a hypothetical where, say, Nara demanded we fork over our word halves and leave, lest he conspire against us to hand out an embarrassing defeat next round in addition to us probably not making the tournament.

The only reason we'd want to precommit to not agreeing in a situation like this is if Nara was intentionallly offering us a worse deal than we could otherwise get from him, that also wouldn't cost him much.

Incidentally, this is also why he's a trustworthy ally and Shin is not.

(*) Our situation is not in the realm of OSGT so this exact reasoning isn't applicable here, and the model is otherwise far too simplistic to use as a basis for any decisions in a more realistic scenario, but grokking it should give intuitions for why "no compromise" strategies lose out.
 
Tua said:
Also, I am guessing Shikamaru's plan = something a poster here came up with independently?
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Sort-of, maybe? I did point out that a pre-established Red Team — Blue Team alliance was the most optimal strategy to pursue this event (with the obvious implication that this will be a ISC/Gouketsu alliance), but my idea assumed that Blue Teams could move around. Also, it was posted more than a week ago, back when the rules were first posted, whereas @eaglejarl said that it was posted somewhere around 13th of July.

I do suppose I partially called it. [insert gloating here]
 
Vecht said:
Funny, but this would not be sound and following this general strategy would probably ensure you always lose out(*). Nara was offering us an opportunity we otherwise wouldn't have (to mutual benefit), and himself precommitting such that he could ensure he would not be exploited, while leaving us few other options. This is substantially different from a hypothetical where, say, Nara demanded we fork over our word halves and leave, lest he conspire against us to hand out an embarrassing defeat next round in addition to us probably not making the tournament.

The only reason we'd want to precommit to not agreeing in a situation like this is if Nara was intentionallly offering us a worse deal than we could otherwise get from him, that also wouldn't cost him much.

Incidentally, this is also why he's a trustworthy ally and Shin is not.

(*) Our situation is not in the realm of OSGT so this exact reasoning isn't applicable here, and the model is otherwise far too simplistic to use as a basis for any decisions in a more realistic scenario, but grokking it should give intuitions for why "no compromise" strategies lose out.
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Did I just see someone use "grokking" in the wild?
 
OliWhail said:
Do people not use that? It's one of my favorite words
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The first time Ive seen this used was in a footnote in a set of reference books on differential geometry, which i was peering through a few months ago.

Didnt know it was common parlance.
 
Tua said:
FWIW, it is now very likely that this turned out the "Bad Thing" we missed for a while since Shikamaru outright confirms this rule.
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I honestly dont get why people were still unclear about this, as of a couple days ago this was the most reasonable pick for "bad thing".

Edit: It became the frontrunner right after "immediate traitorous scum" was ruled out.
 
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MMKII said:
The first time Ive seen this used was in a footnote in a set of reference books on differential geometry, which i was peering through a few months ago.

Didnt know it was common parlance.
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I believe it originated with Heinlen's "Stranger in a Strange Land" (which is, by the way, an excellent book). Funnily enough, it's managed to even make it into shit like "Teen Titans Go!"
 
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Vecht said:
Funny, but this would not be sound and following this general strategy would probably ensure you always lose out(*). Nara was offering us an opportunity we otherwise wouldn't have (to mutual benefit), and himself precommitting such that he could ensure he would not be exploited, while leaving us few other options. This is substantially different from a hypothetical where, say, Nara demanded we fork over our word halves and leave, lest he conspire against us to hand out an embarrassing defeat next round in addition to us probably not making the tournament.

The only reason we'd want to precommit to not agreeing in a situation like this is if Nara was intentionallly offering us a worse deal than we could otherwise get from him, that also wouldn't cost him much.

Incidentally, this is also why he's a trustworthy ally and Shin is not.

(*) Our situation is not in the realm of OSGT so this exact reasoning isn't applicable here, and the model is otherwise far too simplistic to use as a basis for any decisions in a more realistic scenario, but grokking it should give intuitions for why "no compromise" strategies lose out.
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The best strat is precommitting to act however you would have wanted to precommit to before the a deal was offered.
 
Briefvoice said:
You know who doesn't speak up during any of this? Katō Yūto.

Still convinced he's a filthy liar pulling the same con that Hazou tried to run. "I couldn't punch my way out of a paper bag." Sound familiar?
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Ugh. I knew I forgot someone; I'll fix it tonight, since there's no way he would have been allowed to not respond at that point. Spoiler: He agreed to go in.

EDIT: Also, Noburi drained chakra from him during the event and confirms that the guy has tiny reserves.
 
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eaglejarl said:
Ugh. I knew I forgot someone; I'll fix it tonight, since there's no way he would have been allowed to not respond at that point. Spoiler: He agreed to go in.

EDIT: Also, Noburi drained chakra from him during the event and confirms that the guy has tiny reserves.
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In which EJ wants to destroy any and all possibilities of us NOT focusing on beating everyone into a thick red-white paste.
 
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