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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Velorien said:
The more experienced a sealmaster is, the slower they are to make assumptions about the rippling consequences of sealing failures. Or did you think your grue vote would have no... side effects?
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Do we know the rate at which their assumptions slow with experience? If we can draw a graph of assumption speed vs experience then we can immediately update to the extrapolation to infinity of that graph. If it's linear or parabolic then "never assume", but it might be sigmoidal[1]​, in which case there's a level to which even an infinitely experienced sealmaster will still make assumptions.

[1]​ I'm aware that this isn't the exact thing I mean, but I'm trying to describe what graphs of allosteric enzyme inhibition look like, and I'm not a maths major. (E: although non-allosteric enzyme rate graphs do a similar thing that looks like an upside down parabola that also have the right hand side trending to horizontal? Someone who knows maths terms help!)
 
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MadScientist said:
Do we know the rate at which their assumptions slow with experience? If we can draw a graph of assumption speed vs experience then we can immediately update to the extrapolation to infinity of that graph. If it's linear or parabolic then "never assume", but it might be sigmoidal[1]​, in which case there's a level to which even an infinitely experienced sealmaster will still make assumptions.

[1]​ I'm aware that this isn't the exact thing I mean, but I'm trying to describe what graphs of allosteric enzyme inhibition look like, and I'm not a maths major.
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"Is it o(1) or not?"

Edit: But in general you could probably say "has a horizontal asymptote" or something and most mathy type people would understand what you mean.
 
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fictionfan said:
We know that can't happen. Because if it did happen this universe would have already have been not existed.
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What I suspect is that there's some other kind of force out there with motives that desires a mostly human-compatible -shaped universe, and can mediate magic and its effects to decide what happens when someone writes "destroy the universe" on a sheet of paper in magical math and feeds chakra into it.
The far more likely concept is that cracked and crumbled worlds are retroactively ones we could not have arisen in nor experienced, and so of course everyone who still exists finds themselves in a world where nobody in the history of that universe has ever done that yet. And I don't feel like quoting Unicron in saying, "Then it pleases me to be the first."
 
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Vecht said:
Radipodes.

(this is the only correct pluralization when there is any disagreement or confusion)

E: just to head this off, the plural of "Vecht" is "Vecht" (size may change depending on the particular scalar multiple used)
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Is the scaling logarithmic? Linear?


The Plural for Quantum Tesseract replaces Quantum with the quantity used; See "5 Tesseract" or "Lots Tesseract"
 
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Hey @eaglejarl, some of us are a little confused: Why was the conversation with Shikamaru in that update so... adversarial? There's a few ideas for why it might be, but it's not totally clear.
 
Shikamaru's plan has a ton of moving parts. And three independent major risks:
  • They fail to convince everyone to attack.
    • An easy way for this to happen is if any blue team realizes that they win if people don't team up on us. They begin social manipulation to get attacked instead, or they reach out to Mist teams and ask them not to grow our legend even more.
  • We fail to beat everyone once they attack.
  • Our teammates decide against dropping out.
    • An easy way for this to happen is for a third party to offer them a ridiculous amount of gold to not throw the fight. Then they stay somewhere safe from retalitation, get the snot beaten out of them, and go home with a fortune. Easy fame, easy money.
Also, let me run some numbers. We got the same score in event 2. We essentially tied in event 3. They got a lead of fewer than 420 points in 4.

So the very best team has 420 points on us. Assuming we beat everyone, we get +385 relative points on blue teams, and +680 relative points on blue teams.

Assuming our defenses hold in round two, the most any team can get relative to us is a red team who got the documents within the hour. This would get them 45 points relative to us, because we captured our red team, probably.

So we are behind the best possible team by 80 points, unless they are team ISC, who would have 175 points on us. The other people on ISC blue are in the bottom quartile, and can't get over the deficit we are about to give them. We are behind our own red team by probably less than 200 points.

So if we continue with the rampage, we are behind any current blue team who is within 80 points of first place. One of those is Hinata's team, it is unknown how many others there are.

Currently, the deal seems to be worth it.

But.

We are going to have a whole pile of word halves, and none of the top teams besides ISC will have any. I think a conservative estimate for losing your word half is 50 points. Getting caught out of your disguise kit was minus 200, and this seems like a similar failure. If there is any point benefit to having word halves at the end, we win right now. If not, we are within 30 points of the best possible team who is currently blue. Are there one of those? Two?

And our pangolins can leave the site. We guard the facility, they hunt. We get a stack of red prisoners while never leaving the facility.

Assuming our pangolins can capture at least three red players, we beat everyone but our current red team and ISC.

Under Shikamaru's plan, if everything goes right:

  1. ISC
  2. Uplift/Uplift Red
  3. ISC Blue
  4. Other scorers.
And uplift red might actually be above us.

Under pure rampage, if everything works:
  1. ISC
  2. Uplift/Uplift Red
  3. Other scorers.
Am I missing anything? Also, "Other Scorers" includes Hinata. We get more Leaf in the tournament with current rampage. Some of you might argue that Hinata out of the tournament is a good thing, but I disagree. More Leaf is better.
 
Eh, the more I think about this the less I like it.

The Red Alliance Shikamaru wants to build in round 2 can beat us relatively easily through hit and run tactics. Force us to summon Pangolins, then retreat and wait out our chakra reserves. 24 hours is more than enough time for that. So, his plan has to include convincing the squads to use bad tactics for no reason, which is very optimistic. And you know what happens if he fails? We get taken out, while he still gets to take first place, because we left him alone this round.

We've also given up our alternative win condition. If we took everyone out this round, then it would've made for a very impressive show of Goketsu power, even if we failed to reach the tournament. Especially given that some have clearly noticed Mist screwing us over. But that doesn't work anymore, because Shikamaru's plan demands that we pretend to lose to him this round. So, if the plan fails and we're taken out round 2, we're left with nothing, while he gets the fame of having stopped our rampage.

Meh, I think I'm done posting about this. We've put our fate in his hands, so let's hope he succeeds.
 
Roomba said:
Eh, the more I think about this the less I like it.

The Red Alliance Shikamaru wants to build in round 2 can beat us relatively easily through hit and run tactics. Force us to summon Pangolins, then retreat and wait out our chakra reserves. 24 hours is more than enough time for that. So, his plan has to include convincing the squads to use bad tactics for no reason, which is very optimistic. And you know what happens if he fails? We get taken out, while he still gets to take first place, because we left him alone this round.

We've also given up our alternative win condition. If we took everyone out this round, then it would've made for a very impressive show of Goketsu power, even if we failed to reach the tournament. Especially given that some have clearly noticed Mist screwing us over. But that doesn't work anymore, because Shikamaru's plan demands that we pretend to lose to him this round. So, if the plan fails and we're taken out round 2, we're left with nothing, while he gets the fame of having stopped our rampage.

Meh, I think I'm done posting about this. We've put our fate in his hands, so let's hope he succeeds.
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Maybe the six hour limit on summons isn't well known? Summoners are pretty rare.

Edit: Even if they do know about the six hour limit, anything but an immediate all out assault just gives the team more time to create ridiculous seal fortifications. That's probably not something they can allow if they want to win.
 
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TaliesinSkye said:
Maybe the six hour limit on summons isn't well known? Summoners are pretty rare.
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Shin knows that summons are chakra intensive, and them requiring an upkeep cost is easy to intuit, given that clones work the same way. They must have a time limit, or else Keiko would be constantly walking around with an army of Pangolins.
 
Roomba said:
Shin knows that summons are chakra intensive, and them requiring an upkeep cost is easy to intuit, given that clones work the same way. They must have a time limit, or else Keiko would be constantly walking around with an army of Pangolins.
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Eh, there are other possible explanations. The summons might not want to work 24/7 and negotiate limited hours per week or whatever.
 
Roomba said:
Shin knows that summons are chakra intensive, and them requiring an upkeep cost is easy to intuit, given that clones work the same way. They must have a time limit, or else Keiko would be constantly walking around with an army of Pangolins.
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Clones don't actually work the same way? They last 10 minutes and then go poof, no upkeep allowed.
 
Cariyaga said:
Hey @eaglejarl, some of us are a little confused: Why was the conversation with Shikamaru in that update so... adversarial? There's a few ideas for why it might be, but it's not totally clear.
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"If i dont convince them to back down right now, Im going to have maybe five minutes left of consciousness until this Round of the event is over."


Otherwise:

I dont really like this.

Suppose the tables were switched, and we were playing Shikamaru Quest plopped in his head as of the end of this update.

The question you must ask: Could we pull this off? Convince everyone to just bum rush us next round?Given a week of IRL planning time and detailed dossiers on each contestant, even.

Im not really sure we could, and I think thats a serious problem. Is his deal even a deal?
 
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Roomba said:
Eh, the more I think about this the less I like it.

The Red Alliance Shikamaru wants to build in round 2 can beat us relatively easily through hit and run tactics. Force us to summon Pangolins, then retreat and wait out our chakra reserves. 24 hours is more than enough time for that. So, his plan has to include convincing the squads to use bad tactics for no reason, which is very optimistic. And you know what happens if he fails? We get taken out, while he still gets to take first place, because we left him alone this round.

We've also given up our alternative win condition. If we took everyone out this round, then it would've made for a very impressive show of Goketsu power, even if we failed to reach the tournament. Especially given that some have clearly noticed Mist screwing us over. But that doesn't work anymore, because Shikamaru's plan demands that we pretend to lose to him this round. So, if the plan fails and we're taken out round 2, we're left with nothing, while he gets the fame of having stopped our rampage.

Meh, I think I'm done posting about this. We've put our fate in his hands, so let's hope he succeeds.
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There's no perfect plan here, but nothing else gets us into the tournament as far as I can tell.

Also, hit and run will be of limited effectiveness. Every individual we capture becomes a new chakra battery for us to exploit, and we can send a pangolin out hunting. Or just send Team Asuma out to finish off the stragglers who don't get caught when the first assault breaks.
 
MMKII said:
"If i dont convince them to back down right now, Im going to have maybe five minutes left of consciousness until this Round of the event is over."


Otherwise:

I dont really like this.

Suppose the tables were switched, and we were playing Shikamaru Quest plopped in his head as of the end of this update.

The question you must ask: Could we pull this off? Convince everyone to just bum rush us next Given a week of IRL planning time and detailed dossiers on each contestant, even.

Im not really sure we could, and I think thats a serious problem. Is his deal even a deal?
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I mean, sure, but behaving aggressively towards the people who you're worried about jumping you - despite having, on average, been naively nice and trustworthy allies ("But Hinata, why wouldn't you support your father's political rival's kids to make him look good?") does come off as jarring (which I presume was the idea, though I don't see why as-of-yet).

And yeah, it's a serious challenge he's set his team. To be fair, I think they're (on average, at least) more social-specced than we are? Throwing numbers at problems can often work.
 
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I notice that Kei wasn't in this conversation.

Next Chapter:

NOBURI: ...and that's how it went down.

KEI: I see. (stands up) We are going to go find them again. And then I am going to lay out for Nara in simple terms, that even he can understand, why his plan is unsatisfactory.
 
MMKII said:
Is his deal even a deal?
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It's not a deal, it's pure coercion. He opens the conversation with telling us we have no hope in round 2 because ISC are going to do their utmost to undermine us. Then he has the gall to threaten us with high level political consequences if we don't agree to "cooperate" with him.

Enjou said:
There's no perfect plan here, but nothing else gets us into the tournament as far as I can tell.

Also, hit and run will be of limited effectiveness. Every individual we capture becomes a new chakra battery for us to exploit, and we can send a pangolin out hunting. Or just send Team Asuma out to finish off the stragglers who don't get caught when the first assault breaks.
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If we could undo this update and just punch out Team Asuma without talking to them, then I'd take it. At least then we'd have some control over our fate, and a successful round 1 rampage would already be a major boon to Jiraiya.
 
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