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There are a total of 200-250 "civilians" in the Event, and a maximum of 144 contestants (as some people may not have found the Event). Given that a total of 100 roles are known to us, there are only 44 ninjas in a crowd of 56-106 "civilians" we haven't identified.

At this time (read: we don't find anyone else's role) it's still worth it to label everyone as a ninja since I'm guessing that the true number of "civilians" is closer to 200, but chances are we're going to ID enough people that it'll flip.

Of course, if you want to metagame then we know from the retcon'd chapter that there are something along the lines of 100 civilians based on the injured/dying, meaning that the total figure should be closer to 44 ninjas in 106 un-ID'd; so it's a bad idea to label everyone as a ninja.
It's fine, we just have to 'disqualify' some civilians, too.

e: ...Actually. What about starting some sort of physically involved competition? Arm wrestling or whatever?
 
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There are a total of 200-250 "civilians" in the Event, and a maximum of 144 contestants (as some people may not have found the Event). Given that a total of 100 roles are known to us, there are only 44 ninjas in a crowd of 56-106 "civilians" we haven't identified.

At this time (read: we don't find anyone else's role) it's still worth it to label everyone as a ninja since I'm guessing that the true number of "civilians" is closer to 200, but chances are we're going to ID enough people that it'll flip.
I'm not sure I follow your math. If we correctly identify a ninja, it's + 2, if we incorrectly identify a ninja it's - 2. Given there are at least 56 civilians and at most 44 ninja which aren't on our role sheets, that meas we will lose at least 112 points and gain at most 88 points by writing in everyone as a ninja. If there are more "civilians" then we lose more points, and if there are fewer contestants, we will gain fewer points. However the best case scenario mathematically at this point is that we'll lose 24 points by identifying the unknowns as ninjas.
 
So, question: Is there any way that we can identify a savvy proctor from a crappy infiltration specialist?
 
I'm not sure I follow your math. If we correctly identify a ninja, it's + 2, if we incorrectly identify a ninja it's - 2. Given there are at least 56 civilians and at most 44 ninja which aren't on our role sheets, that meas we will lose at least 112 points and gain at most 88 points by writing in everyone as a ninja. If there are more "civilians" then we lose more points, and if there are fewer contestants, we will gain fewer points. However the best case scenario mathematically at this point is that we'll lose 24 points by identifying the unknowns as ninjas.
...

...

...

Oh I'm a fucking dumbass.

Edit: Alright, we have 44 ninjas and 52-103 civilians. If we gamble on it we lose out on points no matter what, so it's a bad idea to do so.

Sorry for being stupid, it's what I get for rushing my numbers.
 
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This is a more conservative variation of @faflec 's plan based on some criticism made by @Radvic
Features: no matchmaking, no drunk tomfoolery, Bonku DQ's half a dozen select individuals.


EJ Wordcount: 162 Words

[X] Action Plan: Amai Bonku Sends His Regards

General:
  • Check everything with Keiko/Noburi.
  • Don't break OPSEC.
Team Clanless:
  • Talk separately from STL.
  • Head off drama/recriminations; talk after event.
  • Offer gained info as thanks.
  • Check: Did the tipserator work?
Continue event:
  • Stay near teammates.
  • Work with other Leaf teams.
    • Trade intel.
    • Enlist their aid to find counterparts:
      • Offer our help finding theirs.
      • Offer future aid (e.g., next Event).
  • Plots:
    • Use sweat: Find disguised ninjas.
    • Bonku disqualifies select targets:
      • Verbally give Bonku ninjas' civilian IDs to finger.
        • He finds and then notifies servants near them that he suspects they are ninja.
          • "They did ninja magic!"
        • Don't talk to targets.
        • Make sure he has names right.
      • Target List (priority order):
        • Kotsuzui Kenji
        • Sakamoto Shiina
        • Yakeyama Ganshō
        • Team Downfall
    • Stay on the defensive until Event ends (sit tight).

I selected targets based on Oyabuns list. I picked ones that seemed problematic from a combat perspective. Most everyone else seems to have a critical weakness to explosions.
Comments and criticism encouraged as always. Can edit tomorrow and throughout the day.
 
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Guys, I'm starting to worry that using Bonku to screw over ninjas won't go over well. With Bonku. The guy lives in fear of ninjas coming in to murder him at the slightest provocation, and if we start telling him to screw over ninjas, I don't know what he'll do. I know he thinks we're Mist but I don't know if that'll be enough for him.

Anyway @MMKII I've taken the liberty of rewording some of your plan to save words for possible future plots. May I ask if you'd mind me also borrowing your Bonku plot for my own? I think I have the word space.
  • Bonku disqualifies select targets:
    • Verbally give Bonku ninjas' civilian IDs to finger.
      • He finds and then notifies servants near them that he suspects they are ninja.
        • "They did ninja magic!"
      • Don't talk to targets.
      • Make sure he has names right.
    • Target List (priority order):
      • Kotsuzui Kenji
      • Sakamoto Shiina
      • Yakeyama Ganshō
      • Team Downfall
  • Stay on the defensive until Event ends (sit tight).
Adhoc vote count started by faflec on Jun 29, 2018 at 9:37 AM, finished with 257 posts and 10 votes.
  • 12

    [X] Action Plan: The Finishers
    [X] Action Plan: Topsy Turvy
    [X] Plan privately apologize to Akane and then win event
    [X] Plan Repeat The Stuff From The Last Plan That We Didn't Do Yet But Also Search For Our Countepart Stealthily And Also Apologize Privately To Akane
    [X] Action Plan: Amai Bonku Sends His Regards
 
@faflec reposting my phrasing suggestions for better readability if you have spare words.
Word count for eaglejarl: 126

[X] Action Plan: Topsy Turvy

General:
  • Check everything with Keiko/Noburi.
  • Don't break OPSEC.
Team Clanless:
  • Talk separately from STL.
  • Head off drama/recriminations; plan to talk after event. (+2 words)
  • Offer the info we gained as thanks. (+2 words)
  • Check: Did the tipserator work?
Continue event:
  • Stay near teammates.
  • Work with other Leaf teams.
    • Trade intel.
    • Enlist their aid to find counterparts:
      • Offer our help finding theirs.
      • Offer matchmaking service.
      • Offer future aid (e.g., next Event).
  • Choose with our team the best plots and do those. (+4 words)
    • Use sweat to find disguised ninjas. (+1 word)
    • Manipulate drunk ninja:
      • Chat them up and get point-scoring intel.
      • Fake being disguised proctors: Get word-halves/point-scoring intel.
    • Matchmaking service:
      • Bonku acts as 'neutral matchmaker'.
      • Spread secret role information for non-Leaf teams using gained information.
      • Don't let our counterparts know our identities.
      • Make Leaf teams aware this is a trap.

@MMKII some readability suggestions for you too.
This is a more conservative variation of @faflec 's plan based on some criticism made by @Radvic
Features: no matchmaking, no drunk tomfoolery, Bonku DQ's half a dozen select individuals.


EJ Wordcount: 162 Words

[X] Action Plan: Amai Bonku Sends His Regards

General:
  • Check everything with Keiko/Noburi.
  • Don't break OPSEC.
Team Clanless:
  • Talk separately from STL.
  • Head off drama/recriminations; plan to talk after event. (+2 words)
  • Offer the info we gained as thanks. (+2 words)
  • Check: Did the tipserator work?
Continue event:
  • Stay near teammates.
  • Work with other Leaf teams.
    • Trade intel.
    • Enlist their aid to find counterparts:
      • Offer our help finding theirs.
      • Offer future aid (e.g., next Event).
  • Plots:
    • Use sweat: Find disguised ninjas.
    • Use Bonku to disqualify select targets
      • Verbally give Bonku a list of civilian identities of ninja
        • He will go find them and then notify servants around these individuals that he suspects they are ninja
          • You saw them do some ninja magic.
        • Do not talk to the individuals themselves
        • Make sure he has the names right.
      • Target List in Priority order (of course Hazou will give Bonku their civilian identities):
        • Kotsuzui Kenji
        • Sakamoto Shiina
        • Yakeyama Ganshō
        • Team Downfall
    • Sit tight and stay on the defensive for the remainder of the event.

I selected targets based on Oyabuns list. I picked ones that seemed problematic from a combat perspective. Most everyone else seems to have a critical weakness to explosions.
Comments and criticism encouraged as always. Can edit tomorrow and throughout the day.
 
Here's a basic plan. Nothing fancy, just the nuts and bolts.

Word count: 197 words

[X] Action Plan: The Finishers

Consolidate our advantages and finish out the event. We're in a strong position, but out of chakra. Play it safe and finish it out.

Team Super Leaf Politics:
  • Before splitting, confirm Team Super Leaf will put down all information about each other in secret ballot (stablest cooperation strategy)
  • Make separate offer to Team Asuma and Team Clanless -- we will use our civilian contact in ways they see fit (sanity checked by Keiko) in exchange for chakra (e.g. tell him to tell servants Urahara the Fur Trader is a ninja)
The remainder of the event:
  • Distribute the list of 100 known roles among known Leaf-nin
  • Stay away from places we could be ambushed, stay within eyesight of each other
  • Interact with Bonku as necessary to fulfill deals
Event Scoring:
  • Use "Who's not sweaty" to try to ID ninja not included in our role sheet
  • Use all the information we have available to score points, identifying every role, secret role, and ninja we are aware of
  • Guess village/team/name/role for all ninja we are unsure of, using logic to determine most probable cases
Contingencies:
  • Ask non-disguised proctors to prove they are not henged before following their orders
 
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[X] Action Plan: The Finishers



    • Use all the information we have available to score points, identifying every role, secret role, and ninja we are aware of
    • Use "Who's not sweaty" to try to ID ninja not included in our role sheet


Can you add:
  • Guess randomly village/team/name/role for all ninja we are unsure of, using the most represented village and consistent logic
  • Do not list Noburi/Keiko
 
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Um.
There will be servants at the party. Contestants may not disguise themselves as servants; anyone is allowed to slap a servant at any time in order to check for henge. If a servant sees anyone who is not on the guest list, or suspects that another servant is a ninja in disguise, they are permitted to slap them in order to check for henge. Servants may disclose information to proctors about anyone they spot as a ninja.
Why are the servants supposed to care that someone on the guest list did ninja magic?
 
Edit: Most of this post has been invalidated by more recent QM clarifications.

  • Do not list Noburi/Keiko

Sanity check me please: But why not?

For each civilian ID you correctly identify as belonging to a contestant, you gain 2 points and they lose the same amount. (...). You gain one (1) additional point each for being able to specify that ninja's village of origin, team affiliation, and/or name.

If we have everyone list each other we gain 2+3 points and lose 2 points when they list us in return for a net gain of 3 points. So why wouldn't we list every single Leaf ninja we know the information of and encourage them to do the same?

E:
[] Action Plan: The Finishers

I would prefer an even more conservative plan that doesn't do any shenanigans with Bonku or match making and one that signals (in private!) we want to apologize Akane after the events but that is the closest thing we have. I don't want to fracture votes even more tbh.
 
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Inserted tally
Adhoc vote count started by Enjou on Jun 29, 2018 at 7:01 AM, finished with 241 posts and 9 votes.
  • 10

    [X] Action Plan: Topsy Turvy
    [X] Action Plan: The Finishers
    [X] Plan privately apologize to Akane and then win event
    [X] Plan Repeat The Stuff From The Last Plan That We Didn't Do Yet But Also Search For Our Countepart Stealthily And Also Apologize Privately To Akane
    [X] Action Plan: Amai Bonku Sends His Regards
 
Oh yeah, also @eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail How much chakra does a civilian have? Can Vampiric Dew tell the difference between a civilian and a ninja with 1CP?
Vampiric Dew lacks that level of precision. It can only tell that a person has "just enough chakra in them to keep them healthy".
Edit: Oh, also if Vampiric Dew was used on Noburi, but Noburi's barrel/chakra source never made contact with the water, would VD label Noburi's Chakra Reserves as 1CP? Or would it register as being Noburi's total Chakra Reserves?
Noburi's barrel is "wired" into his chakra system. Anything that senses one would sense the other as part of him. However, if the barrel is out of range for Noburi, he will register as having 1 CP.
I actually have a reasonable question that won't cause headaches, for a change. @eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail how much is widely known about the Big Fight? Obviously Hiruzen is dead and Yagura is presumed dead, but are any of the circumstances public? What about the more in-the-know people, do the Leaf clan heirs know what happened to Naruto? I know that some of this will be HDK, but I'd also expect Jiraiya to have briefed the kids on what they're allowed to discuss with their peers.
The clan heirs will know about Naruto. Rank-and-file ninja should not; nor should civilians. In ambiguous scenarios (Leaf jōnin, Mist clan heirs etc.), err on the side of caution and direct queries to the Hokage or others authorised to comment on Naruto's mission status.

Hiruzen's death is publicly known, but as far as the man in the street is aware, he died in his sleep of old age. This is helped along by the fact that, when he went off to the Ultimate Showdown, Hiruzen assigned an ANBU to occasionally henge as him and wander around the village for an hour or so. The average citizen of Leaf, and even many of the ninja, are not aware that Hiruzen was ever away and certainly don't know that he died in battle.

Jiraiya wants to make a public announcement of the heroism of Hiruzen's death at some point, but the exact timing of that is up in the air and probably no time soon.
So here's a question @eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail Can we ask Jiraiya after variants of seals? For instance, a non-sharp variant of Force Wall would be more ideal as a base for an absolute defense technique.
You can ask, but close seal variants aren't that common. Usually, a sealmaster will take the time to make/learn a separate seal optimised for any given task, sometimes related, sometimes not.
@eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail Does Hazou anticipate any problems for Jiraiya if this gets out?
Impersonating Mist government officials is certainly illegal, as are the majority of things a clever genin would do during the First Event. It's a question of where Mist chooses to draw the line--for example, there's no exam rule against stealing classified state secrets in order to trade them for event information, but you can bet Mist would come down on you like a ton of bricks if you did. So the question is: where will Mist draw the line? More pertinently, where will it draw the line when dealing with you? (Hazō can, for example, imagine Mist going, "Yes, we intend to punish everybody who performed such an unconscionable act, but Team Gōketsu are the only ones we've caught doing it".)
@Radvic The event rules were changed after the update though. ...To my knowledge. ugh. @eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail Can you clarify whether eaglejarl's rules or OliWhail's rules are canon?
OliWhail's rules. If in doubt, later QM posts trump earlier ones (unless we misremember something, in which case @faflec will doubtless catch it.)
Ah fuck it, I'm going to ask. @eaglejarl @Velorien @OliWhail If you specify a contestant's name, village of origin, and/or team name correctly, do they lose the points you gain (in the same way that correctly identify a partygoer as a contestant gains you points and loses them points)?
Yes, they do. All voting is a zero-sum game except identifying your secret role counterpart.
@Velorien, @eaglejarl, @OliWhail - I have an annoying henge question for you! When you henge, does it change your scent? For instance, if you are wearing perfume, does that scent continue or stop?
It stops. The scent comes from particles on your body and clothes, which are no longer present. In addition, if you were wearing perfume on your real body, it will come back with your real body, but it will not carry over between separate uses of the Transformation Technique.

Edit:
Question: as Velorien pointed out, the plan explicitly called for Hazō to give out information on Akane's EM (whether or not the players realized it). The thing is, nothing Hazō did, said or thinks actually indicates it was an accident. (Noburi said so, and Hazō was worried about Akane being mad, but that's soft proof at best.) I know this story is aiming to be simulationist etc, but is this already set as "Hazō did something dumb," or is it still sufficiently up-in-the-air that we can declare Hazō did this on purpose? Because I'd like to have that option and it'd be good to know whether or not we can say so without having to roll Deceit.
Sort of both? Hazō did it deliberately because it didn't sufficiently register with him that Akane is on a separate team now, and he no longer gets a say in what she does with her personal abilities or whom she chooses to share them with, even if he thinks that doing so would be of net benefit to both of them.
 
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Plan commentary time:

@faflec's plan: This is all clear and easy to work with aside from the section on matchmaking. I feel fuzzy on that section; I think my questions would be "how does this work?" and "why would anyone agree to use it?"

Specific comments:
Team Clanless:
  • [...]
  • Offer gained info as thanks.
I'm reading this to mean "give Team Clanless the full list of contestant information that we've gathered thus far (names, roles, villages, etc)". If that's correct then I'll note that everyone heard what Shikamaru gave you, and that was a strict superset of what you already knew.

Continue event:
  • [...]
  • Work with other Leaf teams.
    • Trade intel.
    • Enlist their aid to find counterparts:
      • Offer our help finding theirs.
      • Offer matchmaking service.
      • Offer future aid (e.g., next Event).
I read "trade intel" to mean "give them the full list of what we know in exchange for whatever they are able/willing to give us in exchange." The various offers happen after the trade for information is complete and are intended to build on the trust that was just established with the intel dump and invoke reciprocity for it.


  • Plots: Choose best ones (with team).
    • Use sweat: Find disguised ninjas.
    • Manipulate drunk ninja:
      • Chat them up and get point-scoring intel.
      • Fake being disguised proctors: Get word-halves/point-scoring intel.
    • Matchmaking service:
      • Bonku acts as 'neutral matchmaker'.
      • Spread secret role information for non-Leaf teams using gained information.
      • Don't let our counterparts know our identities.
      • Make Leaf teams aware this is a trap.
"Fake being disguised proctors." Proctors are required to demonstrate that they are not henged. How will you handle this? (It needs to be in the plan, not just in reply to this post.)

See earlier comments about matchmaking.


@Radvic's plan: Simple, clear, easy to follow. Only comment: Akane already knows about Bonku, so presumably the rest of Team Clanless does as well. He is how you managed to find each other.

Here's a basic plan. Nothing fancy, just the nuts and bolts.

Word count: 135 words

[X] Action Plan: The Finishers

Consolidate our advantages and finish out the event. We're in a strong position, but out of chakra, just play it safe and finish it out.

Speak with Team Clanless:
  • Offer an exchange -- a civilian contact prepped to follow instructions for some chakra
    • Tell them about Bonku
    • Suggest they use him to publicly out the high powered teams (mention the ones on the Oyabuns' list), or as a trustworthy separate source of knowledge
The remainder of the event:
  • Distribute the list of 100 known roles among known Leaf-nin
  • Stay away from places we could be ambushed, be conservative
Event Scoring:
  • Use all the information we have available to score points, identifying every role, secret role, and ninja we are aware of
  • Use "Who's not sweaty" to try to ID ninja not included in our role sheet
 
Yes, they do. All voting is a zero-sum game except identifying your secret role counterpart.

Note that is not what is stated in the @OliWhail's post though but I am assuming this is a case of recent QM post > older one?
(Specifically, whenever you lose points it is explicitly mentioned there except for the part where you ID village, team or name which implies there is no point loss).

For each civilian ID you correctly identify as belonging to a contestant, you gain 2 points and they lose the same amount. If you correctly identify their secret identity, you gain 5 points and they lose the same amount. You gain one (1) additional point each for being able to specify that ninja's village of origin, team affiliation, and/or name.

E:
Proctors are required to demonstrate that they are not henged.

Did Hazou know this? Because in a previous update he followed a fake proctor into a break room and even in the current one no one had the presence of mind to ask the proctor to ID himself which seems unlikely if they knew about that rule.

Or this purely OOC information?

Regardless, @Radvic please add "Hazou will ask every non-disguised proctor to prove they are not henged before following their orders." (this is for cases where they would ask him to show his word half, de-henge or follow him into a room alone etc).
 
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[X] Action Plan: The Finishers

Impersonating Mist government officials is certainly illegal, as are the majority of things a clever genin would do during the First Event. It's a question of where Mist chooses to draw the line--for example, there's no exam rule against stealing classified state secrets in order to trade them for event information, but you can bet Mist would come down on you like a ton of bricks if you did. So the question is: where will Mist draw the line? More pertinently, where will it draw the line when dealing with you? (Hazō can, for example, imagine Mist going, "Yes, we intend to punish everybody who performed such an unconscionable act, but Team Gōketsu are the only ones we've caught doing it".)

@faflec - given this, I think we might want to scrap the matchmaking plan. It makes our use of Bonku too obvious and too high level, thus too risky.
 
Note that is not what is stated in the @OliWhail's post though but I am assuming this is a case of recent QM post > older one?
(Specifically, whenever you lose points it is explicitly mentioned there except for the part where you ID village, team or name which implies there is no point loss).
If you incorrectly guess extra details, you do not lose points. If you correctly guess them, they do.

Did Hazou know this? Because in a previous update he followed a fake proctor into a break room and even in the current one no one had the presence of mind to ask the proctor to ID himself which seems unlikely if they knew about that rule.
A disguised proctor isn't going to ID themselves in public.
 
A suggestion for plans:

[] Make sure to confirm with the rest of STL that everyone is going to put each other down for voting.

Rationale: If anyone on STL votes for anyone else in STL, Mist will definitely make a thing out of it. But, if everyone already knows this is going to happen, then no one will really care. Mist can point out how Leaf is so terrible at being allies that they all mutually betrayed each other, and all we'll do is link arms and take a bow. BUT, if someone for whatever reason doesn't get the message (coughAkanecough), and doesn't write down any of our names, then they're going to lose a lot of points and be really put out. That's bad. Therefore we should make sure to confirm with everyone while we're all still together that this is what we're doing.

[:V] "It's not that I don't trust you guys, buuuuut..." (glances at Hinata)
 
Make sure to confirm with the rest of STL that everyone is going to put each other down for voting.

I like the gist of it but with the current information, it'd be "Make sure to confirm with STL (and other Leaf teams*) that no one puts each other down for voting because Mist will likely out us in public". That way we can make sure we don't get betrayed since no one wants to be publicly shamed for doing so and the only incentive would have been if it was done in secret.

*And to help with this, don't list any Leaf ninjas in the lists we distribute to the non-STL teams.

Thoughts on this, @Radvic? I think the worst that could come from this is an eye roll from Shikamaru for stating the obvious. But what the last few updates have shown us is that what is obvious to us isn't necessarily obvious to others.
 
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Can we falsely demonstrate that we aren't henged?
Not unless you can make a henge that doesn't pop or can cause specific and believable hallucinations in your opponents. You could achieve a similar effect by using conventional disguises but that approach would be limited. To actually achieve proper results you would probably need bio sealing, a shape shifiting bloodline or extensive plastic surgery.
 
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