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In this quest, is it theoretically possible to logic our way to an optimal solution at every juncture? For example in the current vote is there a specific sequence of questions and actions that would logically lead us to the correct choice? Or are there always choices that have to be made on intuition and luck like many are basing this current decision on?
Hmmm, probably not every juncture; the illusion of transparency makes it really hard to accurately judge how much is just enough information without making things too obvious. All the same there are definitely certain facts that people have noticed and pointed out, but not taken to their logical conclusion or updated their view of the things that depend on those facts.
 
If she wants to harm us we are dead already. There is no hope that we can defeat or escape from a Jounin when we are twenty minutes away from base. We have to assume she is telling the truth or testing us.

She might need us as bartering tools later on or as straight up bribes. Killing us to prevent her escape being found out is a counterintuitive idea because it means leaving behind evidence that things aren't as the planted evidence describe, far better to wipe our memories if we don't want to go quietly into the night and complete her "suicide" in the eyes of the group. she admits shikigami is a monster when she tries to talk down her own theoretical revolt plan but then talks down his chances of success of winning against Zabuza to a near comical degree. Sounds like pretty basic fear mongering.

She creates the problem and offers a solution to her own problem.

Wouldn't the hunting methods of hunter-nin be at least vaguely known to Shikigami and the other Jonin? At least whether Zabuza operates alone or not? Also is anything known about Haku at this point?

I think going back to Shikigami and bunkering down makes the most sense and keeps us alive almost all of the time.

1. If it is a test, we should pass easily.
2. If she is indeed running away and her genjutsu does as described we go back to shikigami none the wiser and we have more chances at not dying.
3. If she's running away but her genjutsu=lies then we have to hope that her killing us off is more trouble than its worth considering that genjutsu requires the user to stand completely still in this world, and it's pretty likely that a genin team disappearing might upset her ruse.
4. There should be no reason that this is Zabuza considering his modus apparatus is picking off those outside basecamp i.e. our genin team, we should be dead already and its been ascertained that our bloodlines wouldn't be too great a loss to Water.

Plus it's our swamp dagnabbit, and we aint'a givin' it up widdout a foight!
 
Oh lol I guess we'll see then right? Either way independent thought should never be discouraged yada yada yada and so on and so forth. Seems kind of a shame that we might be saying goodbye to the swamp, "sniff", and I had a feeling we'd only scratched the surface of the swamp nasties.

And come on tell me it wouldn't be worth it to go all home alone on Zabuza with the swamp acting as makeshift traps. Just imagine it's not bricks we're lobbing at his head, it's giant bloodsucking warmth detecting homing lovecraftian insects, with the tentacles and the furry, furry eyes.
 
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In this quest, is it theoretically possible to logic our way to an optimal solution at every juncture?

This is a complex question, but I'll take a swing.

This quest is a combination of realistic, rational, and rewarding, with realism playing trumps. The assumption is that people will, in general, behave intelligently and to their own interests, yet that doesn't always mean optimally. People are allowed to make mistakes, or to allow emotion to sway them, or to behave in ways that people behave instead of ways that superhumans behave.

The "rewarding" part is that it's here for us all to have fun, and that will impact things. Pedophilia won't happen. No-avoid TPKs won't happen (although TPKs will if you make bad decisions.) Things like that.

The upshot is: no. Not every decision can be logic-ed into global optimality. No matter how much you logic, you cannot convince Zabuza to stop hunting you and teach you all his secrets before going away peacefully.
You can always theoretically achieve LOCAL optimality by choosing the best of a group of (possibly bad) options, but that's different.

Furthermore, there's something veeeery off about her reasoning to take you with her. The whole "save as many people as you can" way of thinking seems extraordinarily naive for what has been proclaimed a rationalistic deathworld.

[...]

So options are thus: She has an absolutely impossibly massive bleeding heart that makes her choose empathy over rationality, and for some reason empathises most with the protagonists group of bloodline having genin (weak and valuable).

Or it's a test of some sort or she's gonna harvest our organs for the cash monies (or sth else).

A collection of facts, some of which are true:

*) All successful genjutsu specialists are empathetic.
*) Inoue is a trained liar with years of experience at spotting the best options both tactical and strategic.
*) Anthropic principle is a thing -- you see Inoue being friendly to you, but you don't see the other jonin and chunin being indifferent to you. Inoue really does have positive feelings towards your group.
*) Deathworld does not mean "populated solely by sociopaths".
*) Ninja are not on the center of the bell curve mentally or physically.
*) You three would be useful assets in some situations, and good bargaining chips in others.


She admits shikigami is a monster

Point of order: she said "combat monster".

Seems kind of a shame that we might be saying goodbye to the swamp, "sniff", and I had a feeling we'd only scratched the surface of the swamp nasties.

I know, right? You guys never even met the shoggoth!
 
Well the original mission was invading and annexing at least some of Noodle. Now, that might seem like a problem since Mist has already done that, but with the power of lateral thinking, all problems can be solved!

First, you must build up a large fighting force and invade Noodle, slaughtering their soldiers and crushing the Mist forces into dust. Then you simply turn around and give Noodle back to Mist, proving your loyalty beyond any shadow of a doubt. Logic.

Alternatively we could defect to Noodle, creating Neo Noodle, lay claim to a random bit of ocean no one owns, and then surrender to Mist giving that to them for the peace deal.

I suppose that's too straight forward though.

Let's see, first we defect to Noodle, creating Neo Noodle. Then we declare war on Fire Country in the name of Neo Noodle. They will naturally declare war on Noodle, thus starting a war with Mist. Now, if Naruto has taught me anything it's that all the nations will declare war on each other for the slightest of things because Danzo is making that happen 'for the benefit of Leaf'. So, what we need to do next is intercept Danzo's minions as they go out to turn Leaf's single war into a nonsensical massive war. Eventually Danzo will come himself, and then we can kidnap him and make him loyal to the village hidden in the swamp.

Then we get him to teach us the ways of insane logic and use that to force the current ongoing war between Leaf and Mist to justify the existence of Noodle, since the entire war is based on them actually having a political identity. Thus, as members of Neo Noodle, we will come into possession of Noodle, as is our right as the new Noodle. Then we give Noodle to Mist, thus completing our mission!

See, this plan is better than the other one since we won't actually be killing any Mist ninja ourselves, so they won't be able to question that part of it for our loyalty.
 
Chapter 9: Cutting the Cord

Hazō's brain was in overdrive, running the possibilities with a smoothness that felt like the way his body moved when he drew on his family's power.

Agree to go? No. This could be a loyalty test, in which case agreeing to go would be fatal...no, not fatal. Shikigami-sensei couldn't afford to kill off the members of his tiny village. It would bench the team, though. They'd never be let out of the cave again.

Decide to stay? No. It could be a sincere offer, in which case refusing to go might be fatal regardless of Inoue-sensei's claims that she wouldn't hurt them.

Actually, it might not even be Inoue-sensei. It could be something else entirely—a Leaf ninja, Captain Zabuza, a swamp monster, something—in which case the right move was to attack immediately. Of course, if it was Inoue-sensei—or, ancestors forbid, Captain Zabuza!—then attacking would be extremely painful or fatal. No, on second thought, the chances that this was anything other than Inoue-sensei were slim—she had shown too much knowledge of the team, and too many of Inoue-sensei's personality traits.

Stall until the next patrol came by? No, she wouldn't wait.

Lie? No. She was a deception expert, there was no way the team could play her.

That left only one option, and it was wildly uncomfortable; years of being taught to be reserved, to keep one's self hidden and protected, shouted at him not to show vulnerability. He firmly stamped on the embarrassment and spoke from the heart.

"Sensei, please don't leave," Hazō said, doing his best to let his sincerity show in his voice. It was easier to show sincerity on his face than in his voice; he had once walked in on momma sitting on the edge of her bed, her face buried in poppa's old flannel shirt and her shoulders shaking in quiet sobs. It was easy to wear the same expression he'd had at that moment, the more so because it was the one his face wanted to wear anyway.

"Please, sensei; we need you," he said. "How will Mori cope without you around to calm her down? Who's going to teach me to do more than punch things? Who's going to teach Wakahisa enough self-control to be sent on the good missions? Who's going to look after us—not as ninja, but as...well, as kids growing up? Shikigami-sensei is a great man and a good teacher, but you're the only one who has worried about us as people. Please don't go."

Inoue-sensei looked at him for a moment, then smiled sadly. "Sorry, kid," she said. "I'm going, one way or another. You three are good kids and I'll miss you, but I'm not willing to die. Shikigami had a good plan, but it's toes-up now. Are you coming or not?"

Damnit. What to do? Either choice could be wrong, not choosing was definitely wrong...the others weren't saying anything, and just waiting too long might well be taken as refusing the offer.

For long seconds, Hazō looked uncertainly at Inoue before turning to his team. "Mori, Wakahisa, what do you say? Personally, I think we should accept the memory wipe and stay with Swamp. All of us being together and staying in this swamp are the biggest things going for us right now, and I want to stick to Shikigami-sensei's plan, but I won't make that decision for you. This might end up being your only decent shot at leaving before Mist or Leaf stomps us down. If both of you want to go with Inoue-sensei, I'll go with you."

"I choose to go," Mori said quietly, looking at the ground. "Our loyalties are challenged, torn between Shikigami-sensei and Inoue-sensei. Both have offered us kindness in different ways, and neither has a perfect plan. If I must choose, however, I choose Inoue-sensei; she aided me with problems that Shikigami-sense did not notice, and I see fewer issues in her plan."

All three of the others turned to look at Wakahisa. The young genin fidgeted, trying to meet their gazes and failing.

"Uh..." he said.

Hazō waited a moment to see if his teammate would say anything else. When it became clear that he wouldn't, Hazō spoke up. "Wakahisa," he said as gently as he could. "I know things aren't totally smooth between us, but you're a good guy and a good teammate. You need to do what you think is right; neither of us is going to blame you no matter what you choose."

Wakahisa swallowed, his face shouting how badly he was torn. He eyed his teammates carefully, then looked at Inoue-sensei. "Sensei, why now?" he asked. "You said that Shikigami-sensei had this plan back in Mist; why did you go with him if you thought it wasn't going to work? We've been here two weeks and you're only leaving now—what changed?"

Inoue sighed. "It's complicated," she said. "It's part logical, part intuitive. Shikigami had these clever plans with lots of contingencies. I thought we were going good when we broke trail with all the sailing and waterwalking. We were followed coming through Leaf, although we never got spotted. Call it one to the good and one to the ohcrap.

"Shikigami figured that if we could stay clear of Captain Zabuza for a few weeks, Yagura wouldn't be able to keep us a top priority; he'd put a bounty on us like any other missing-nin—probably a big bounty, but still—and then go on to more immediate concerns. Like, for example, the war that was sure to start with Leaf. Going after the Noodle-brains was going to piss off Fire and cause a war between Mist and Leaf. If it did we had a great chance of getting lost in the shuffle."

She sat down tiredly, wrapping her arms around her knees and looking sad. "The chance of the war was part of why we went, y'know? Last time around, the death toll was horrendous, both among ninja and civilians, and none of us wanted to see that happen again. We thought that if the war happened we'd get forgotten about in favor of bigger fish, and we hoped that maybe the drop in combat strength from our absence would be enough that Yagura would back off on getting tangled up in another war. Either way, there was some profit; we could help ourselves, and maybe we could help our village.

"Shikigami's wanted to be Kage for a long time, but it was never going to happen in Mist; as strong as he is, he's not quite strong enough. Which is a pity because, honestly, he'd be good at it. He's strong, smart, charismatic, knows how to delegate, and—underneath that hardass exterior—is one of the most moral men I know. Mist would have flourished under him. If the war had happened we could have made a good go of it here, too. Doesn't look like it's going to, though; I was in town a couple days ago, and there was talk of an old man traveling through. From the description it sounds like Leaf's resident spymaster and diplomancer, the Toad Sage. If he's here, there's no war going on, and if it's held off this long it's probably not starting up in the immediate future."

She flashed her infectious grin at them. "Pity he didn't wait around a day or so longer; I would have loved to meet him." She clasped her hands in front of her innocently (not-so-coincidentally pressing her bosom together for extra-impressive cleavage) and made bedroom eyes.

"Ooh, are you really the famous Jiraiya?" she purred. "Ooh, I've heard so much about you! And I just love your Icha-Icha Paradise— is there any chance that I could model for a character?" She leaned in, taking a deep breath and making her eyes even more soulful. "I'd do anything to be in your wonderful novels, Jiraiya-senpai!"

She snorted and dropped the act. "He'd have seen through it, of course...after breakfast, anyway. Still, we always knew we were going to have to talk to Leaf eventually, and this would have been a great way to make, shall we say, positive first contact.

"The timing sucks, though. We planned for a lot of things, but not for Jiraiya showing up within two damn weeks. If we'd had the chance to get established and then reach out on our own, we would have had a good chance of getting client-state status, or at least being allowed to immigrate. Right now, though, we aren't strong enough to look impressive, and his presence would make it look like we'd been panicked into coming forward instead of doing it on our own terms."

"Do we have to reach out now?" Wakahisa asked. "Couldn't we wait, get established, then talk to them when we were ready? And you said the war would distract them. It could still happen, right?"

"Nice try, kid, but no," Inoue said. "Like I said, if Jiraiya's around that means there's no war going on or even on the horizon. And him being here means we have to assume we're blown. I mean, sure, maybe he's just doing a normal intelligence-gathering sweep, checking in with his contacts in the area. Not the way to bet, though, and a swamp is about the worst imaginable place to hide from a toad summoner."

"Why did we come here, sensei?" Mori asked. "Why not flee to Snow, or even out of the Elemental Nations?"

Inoue shrugged. "There weren't any really good choices," she said. "We talked about looping back, hiding out in Wolf or Vegetable—and by the way, who in the hells names their country 'the Land of Vegetables'? I mean, that's just asking to get your asses kicked." She snorted. "Anyway, we talked about hiding somewhere over there, but that left us too close to Mist for comfort. We could have headed for somewhere in the Kanashii Ocean, but the choices there were either 'be on top of a ninja village' or 'be somewhere where there's no civilians so we have to become farmers.' Snow was out—none of us had cold-weather survival experience.

"That put us on the mainland. Going to any of the smaller nations would have left us camping right next to a ninja village, and even the minor villages would be able to take us out if they wanted to. Wind is huge, but it's mostly flat and they have a ton of scouts that fly around on gliders; too easy to get spotted from the air. We couldn't blend in with the population in Earth, and Lightning puts us back in the 'cold weather survival' problem."

She shrugged. "The swamp was the best of a lot of bad choices. It's near a large number of ninja villages but it's ground that no one else wants. It's nominally in Fire, which means the adjacent villages aren't likely to send anyone into the area, but it's far enough out in the Great Bugger-All that Leaf doesn't spend a lot of time here. At the same time, if we could found an actual village here and then apply to Leaf for client-state status, we'd be between them and all their closest enemies."

"Sensei, isn't Fire allied with many of the nations here?" Mori asked.

Inoue laughed. "You're just adorable, you know that?" The words could have been harsh, but the tone of fondness took the sting out. "Yeah, they're theoretically allies with most of them, but alliances between ninja nations are fragile things. There's been a major war every generation for a hundred years, and we're about due—that's why we were giving such good odds on the Noodle Incident sparking things off between Mist and Leaf. Ninja move too fast to be able to find and stop an incoming strike force, but if we were here and provably allied to Fire then none of the neighbors would have wanted to bypass us to strike at Leaf."

"'Provably allied'?" Mori asked.

Inoue grimaced. "Yeah...let's not go there right now. It wasn't my favorite part of the plan. Anyway, the swamp is easy to hide in, the area around it is one of the more lightly patrolled in Fire, and Shikigami knew about the cave system, which makes a good fort and a good hide. Best of some bad choices."

She glanced up at the sun. "Anyway, time's a-wastin'. I'm leaving in sixty seconds, and you kids need to make your choice."

Everyone looked at Wakahisa again.

He was silent for a long moment, warring emotions on his face, before finally sighing and nodding. "I would like to go," he said.

Hazō's mouth tightened, but he forced his face to smooth out. "Very well," he said. "Then it's unanimous; we're all going."

Inoue bounced to her feet and clapped her hands gleefully. She waved casually and the world shimmered around them as the genjutsu released.

"Come on," she said. "We're going to put a few miles under us, then we'll sit down and make more definite plans. You wanted to learn more than punching? Great, first thing to learn is tactical planning; in this case that means 'where are we going' and 'what are we doing when we get there'." You know what the map looks like; start thinking about where we should hide out, how we're going to live when we get there, and what we can do to not get discovered and slaughtered in a gory and horrible fashion by someone from Leaf, or Mist, or whoever."

Mori started to open her mouth and Inoue waved her to silence. "Yes, yes," the jōnin said airily. "You're working with inadequate information. Welcome to the real world, kiddo. You come up with preliminary plans based on what you do know, then I'll give you an infodump on the various countries and you can refine your plans."

Team Kurosawa exchanged looks; as flippant as the words were, they still weren't entirely reassuring.

Inoue laughed. "Unclench your sphincters, as Shikigami would say. I've got some pretty good thoughts on all this; this is just an oral exam. Once we make camp I'll expect a clear statement of your chosen destination, the reasons for your choice, and a general outline of our activities for the next two weeks. No sacred cows—the reasons why a group of thirty ninja should or shouldn't go somewhere aren't relevant to whether a group of four should. Now, give me a minute to fake your deaths and then we're out of here. Follow me, and make sure you only step on the water; don't touch any grasses, reeds, or anything else that could leave a trace."

Without another word she snatched the forehead protectors off their heads, scorched them with a quick Fire ninjutsu, and scattered them and a bit more blood around. She herded them back onto the water, taking care to erase their tracks as she went, then studied the scene for a long minute. She stepped in and made some minor adjustments—flattening a patch of grass here, wiping out a last footprint there—then nodded in satisfaction.

"Welcome to the grave, kids and kiddies," she said. "How's it feel to be dead? No no, that was rhetorical! C'mon, let's get outta here." With a casual wave she turned and flitted away, stepping so lightly that she barely made a ripple. Unhappy but determined, Team Kurosawa followed in her wake.





Voting time! The map of the Elemental Nations is available.

-[] Where do you go?

-[] What do you do when you get there?

Explain your answers.

Voting closes 12pm UTC Wednesday, January 13, 2016.
 
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Well... If what Inoue said is true and Jiraiya really was already sniffing around the Swamp... Then we probably made the right decision. No matter how hardcore the Swamp is, it should be Tuesday for the Toads. But of course we are only going to see the end of this in a while. For now we need to focus on surviving.
 
We probably won't be able to sweet talk Iwa, Kumo's led by Angry A. We COULD try going into Rice, but for OOC reasons (Orochifucker) I'm not too big on it. Grass is also an option, if they'll have us, but the issue with joining up with Grass, Sound, Stone, or Leaf is we'd have to sell out the others. While it's certainly possible, it wouldn't be a good way to introduce ourselves.

Alternatively, we could go straight south. Brush past Tanzaku, cut through the southern half of River, then take a ship to Tea. In tea, we could present ourselves to a feudal lord or even the Daimyo and get ourselves some gainful employment there. Tea lacks a hidden village, they probably won't pass up the opportunity to properly employ some ninja in the long term.
 
We probably won't be able to sweet talk Iwa, Kumo's led by Angry A. We COULD try going into Rice, but for OOC reasons (Orochifucker) I'm not too big on it. Grass is also an option, if they'll have us, but the issue with joining up with Grass, Sound, Stone, or Leaf is we'd have to sell out the others. While it's certainly possible, it wouldn't be a good way to introduce ourselves.

Alternatively, we could go straight south. Brush past Tanzaku, cut through the southern half of River, then take a ship to Tea. In tea, we could present ourselves to a feudal lord or even the Daimyo and get ourselves some gainful employment there. Tea lacks a hidden village, they probably won't pass up the opportunity to properly employ some ninja in the long term.

Personally, i'd prefer not having any interaction with a Hidden Village or any official personage if we can manage it. My thirst instinct would be to have the whole team brush up on their social skills and then seek out a decently sized town/city as our first hangout. Preferably a trade city in a neutral country without a ninja village.

This would allow Inoue to use her infiltration spec to the outmost, and we can keep ourselves supplied via thievery. It should be exceptionally rare for Shinobi to be used as guards given their rarity, and if we keep to low-level targets and don't steal enough to be worth the price of a C-Ranked mission it is unlikely anyone will be hired to investigate us.

We stay long enough to get enough material goods to last us a while and for Inoue to set up a net of contacts and perhaps an identity as a merchant, and then we go off somewhere where noone lives and spend a few weeks training. Then we repeat that in another town on the other side of the elemental nations. If we don't get greedy and avoid making powerful and wealthy enemies that sort of pattern should allow us to get by for a long time.
 
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Tea seems like a nice central location to make our four man group to set up shop. We would be close enough to the main elemental nations to catch word about the general state of politics without being to involved.
 
We are now a party lead by an infiltration specialist, so we should take advantage of that. What are the main non-ninja village cities she has spent time in?

For that matter, what non-ninja village cities exist? I assume there must be at least a few major ports as a minimum...
 
Well, Jiraiya certainly changes the game. Dealing with Zabuza is one thing, but toads are at home in the swamp and he's an S rank.

I think an additional question should be 'how do we get there?'

Before we actually go to the next step, finding a place to train and rank up to chunin should be our current goal. Remember, we're mobile now, there's no need to set up a permanent base of operations when we only have four people so our current destination can be temporary for a certain goal if we want.
 
Wait we actually invaded Noodle? The people here are insane enough to call their land Noodle!?
To be precise, it's the Country of Noodles (Udon no Kuni), shortened to "Noodle" by English speaker convention. It was introduced in the filler arc at the end of the original series (and never seen again as far as I know).
 
To be precise, it's the Country of Noodles (Udon no Kuni), shortened to "Noodle" by English speaker convention. It was introduced in the filler arc at the end of the original series (and never seen again as far as I know).
Can we ask Inoue questions and get the information she'd give us as we plan?

I'd like to ask where Tea stands in terms of politics.
 
Do we know if the Land of Iron is still a neutral country like in canon? In canon the place didn't have ninjas and doesn't involve itself in ninja wars. The capital is apparently a snowy shithole but there are spots we've seen that are rather sunny by comparison. If it's still a neutral zone I don't see ninjas wanting to go into the place, period. It's also close to our location that we don't have to worry about running out of supplies or fucking up quite as much as we would otherwise.

Of course, it's still going to be relatively close to Fire and Sound. That's a pretty big con but the other options I've considered (Claw/Fang, Tea) all have bigger cons. Claw/Fang are non-hidden villages and are fuuucking far from Mist but border Sand and Stone. Tea is closer to Mist and Leaf and Sand. Get the feeling we'd rather stay away from all villages if possible.

Hmm. The map shows there's several rivers in the Land of Iron. Maybe we could find a place along the river, or a port on the western side of Iron?
 
So, for short term I think we want somewhere close where we won't have to go through tons of highly patrolled land, and where we can safely train, but only for a few weeks, maybe a month or two, and then move on to a more long term plan.

For that, where are we on the map in relation to everywhere? I'd say either Tea or the unlabeled islands by hotsprings (are those the old whirlpool?) are best without knowing our exact location.

Also, we need a long term plan. How much of a ninja do we want to be? Should we just find a safe place and retire? Go freelance bounty hunter? Swear fealty to a lord? Try to start our own village? Try to join another village?
 
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