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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Rafin said:
If we are just taking off filters amd blurting out things then my current gripe is that voters have faaaaar too much hopium and seem like they can do whatever feels right/good to do without modeling any NPCs inner lives or reasoning. This whole "leave with the whole family and manage to keep them safe and happy" is so ludicrously optimistic that from my side it sounds more like wishful thinking than like anything that can be called a plan. It's like people are incapable of modeling what they would do if this happened and they were playing Naruto-Quest
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Yeah, I was about to bring this up myself... Because–
eaglejarl said:
Typically, clans may select missions at their leisure and define reasonable missions for their own members. Reasonable here means that the mission doesn't compromise Leaf's military readiness. The Hokage rarely disapproves of such missions, as most in-clan missions only tie up 2-4 members of a clan and stay within the Land of Fire.

If you wanted to take all of modern Uplift (Hazou, Kei, Noburi, Mari, Kagome, Yuno) on a scroll hunt, you'd need to request a mission to hunt the scroll, listing these people as specific members of the mission.

Given that this mission assigns a (self-proclaimed elite) jounin, two special jounin of highly valuable specializations, three chuunin, four summoners, three shadow clone-users, three Bloodline Limit users (including one whose bloodline turns those aforementioned summoners and shadow clone-users from tactical powerhouses into a force that could easily wipe fortified cities off the map), two of the village's top sealmasters, a damn good medic, a key village leadership figure, and the entire senior membership of a notably unstable clan, there is approximately 0 chance that any Tower clerk approves this mission on their own. Fortunately, there are two dozen Narutos that are usually out and about who could give their approval/disapproval.
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... there's no freaking way Naruto approves that, is there?

The way I saw it before, the whole "take the entire family and go" plan relied on Naruto either being completely on-board and waving ahead anything we want, or blissfully unaware of just how many people we're taking missing until it's too late to abort (at which point he'd have little recourse but to play along). But now, after he's had time to cool his head a bit? After he started to have an inkling regarding Noburi's strategic value? If we need to go through him to get this mission... Hell no, he ain't rubber-stamping this. And he'd realize we're about to go missing, and take serious measures before we can disappear.

I feel the "outwardly take a whole-family mission and just not come back" plan is a bust. We need to do it more subtly, stagger our defections at least a bit (across days, to be clear, not weeks). Don't make it easily bureaucratically legible what a large batch of people (i. e., combat and political power) we're taking.

Just, I don't know... Time Hazou and Kagome going off to do research at a distant site with Noburi and Yuno going out on a date in Tanzaku Gai with Kei taking that mission to kill chakra beasts to unstagnate, and simultaneously have Mari exfiltrate out of Leaf in a crowd of civilians. That'd work.

... Oh, maybe also forge one of the clerks mindlessly rubber-stamping a whole-family mission to hunt down the Summoning Scroll? That way, we'd have the best of both worlds: an official cover regarding why we're suddenly all gone all at once, which would give Naruto an excuse not to set off hunter-nin immediately, but without giving him an opportunity to veto us.

Inferno Vulpix said:
Do you think it'd be viable to ask him to do it after we've left? I intend to get in contact with him on the Seventh Path to try and secure his cooperation for necromancy and/or anti-Akatsuki measures, on the rationale that if we can un-reverse-summon at any moment to an unknown location we cannot be forcibly put under Orochimaru's power like if we were in his Basement. I originally imagined we would also solely contact him through Shadow Clone for an extra layer of security, but if we meet in person he should probably be able to perform the operation there.
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Hm. I'd seen the idea to contact Orochimaru afterwards, and my instinctive reaction to it was "hell no, that'd be fun but too risky", but now that you lay it out like this, I... don't actually see plausible ways for this to go horribly wrong...

Oh, right. Here's one: the Akatsuki realize we've gone missing, go up to Orochimaru, strike some sort of deal, and then he arranges for them (i. e., Itachi + Kisame) to ambush us on the Seventh Path when we're supposed to meet him. I think they collectively can set up some way to foil reverse-summoning.

Hm. Using an SC to contact him... mostly foils that? Except the Sharingan, which apparently may have straight-up mind-control abilities... And who knows what esoteric Crow summons Itachi can bring to bear on the problem...

Use Kumokogo as our security guarantor, as she'd surely be able to ensure no-one is sneaking up on us? ... I don't know that I trust her this much. She's probably thankful to us for pulling the Crusade together, but she's surely also thankful to Itachi and Kisame and Orochimaru for actually fighting in it, and Orochimaru is also working on the Great Seal and can probably convincingly argue he's a better expert, and the three essies can just use the big-stick diplomacy to try and get her to stand back (which may or may not work; she may or may not be able to solo them in her own domain)...

Another concern here is that Oro may pull off some Sherlock Holmes-style "the dirt on Hazou's boots is unique to the southermost beach of the Taro Island" bullshit in order to figure out where we are.

I dunno. [x] Sanity-check with Kei.
 
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I'll also note, I think there's basically no chance that Naruto approves of this mission, because the entire point is to be deniable. It is not deniable if the Hokage greenlights a insane and bizarre mission for a entire clan to leave Leaf. The slightest investigative effort on Akatsuki's part is going to uncover that and it'll be suspicious as all hell.
 
MMKII said:
Personally, I'm not here to play out 60-100 chapters of fluffy interactions, comedic social chicanery, and firehose political problems in this village (while the village yoinks FOOM at the start of it ) only for Nagato and co to just pop in at the end there and declare themselves King Shits of Fuck Mountain now that they've got the whole world by the metaphorical balls or whatever. From where I stand, that's playing to lose, and I'm not here for that.

I'm here to win the game and to try to get a good ending both for the setting, and for these characters we've spent so much time with.

If we go down swinging then we go down swinging. That's fine. Fair ball
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This 100%, I'm here to win, not here to Uplift for a few hundred chapters -the majority of which is done offscreen- until Leaf is destroyed by God-Emporer Pain.
 
MMKII said:
Personally, I'm not here to play out 60-100 chapters of fluffy interactions, comedic social chicanery, and firehose political problems in this village (while the village yoinks FOOM at the start of it ) only for Nagato and co to just pop in at the end there and declare themselves King Shits of Fuck Mountain now that they've got the whole world by the metaphorical balls or whatever. From where I stand, that's playing to lose, and I'm not here for that.
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Same.

I don't want to abandon Leaf, our Clan, and the Uplift Movement we've created... but the alternative is leaving the world to the tender mercies of the Akatsuki and a Resurrected Pain as the Immortal Godkings of the World.

And that way lies a Bad End for everyone. So yeah, we need to leave. It'll suck in the short term, but it's the better move, longterm.
 
[X][MissingWhen] I want to go missing immediately, in the next day or two at the most
[X][MissingHow] Grab our gear and go
[X][MissingWho] Modern Team Uplift (Hazō, Kagome, Mari, Kei, Noburi, Yuno)
[X][OrochimaruProcess] Have Orochimaru do the bioseal process that will break Hidan's current tracking lock on Hazō
 
Noumero said:
The way I saw it before, the whole "take the entire family and go" plan relied on Naruto either being completely on-board and waving ahead anything we want, or blissfully unaware of just how many people we're taking missing until it's too late to abort (at which point he'd have little recourse but to play along). But now, after he's had time to cool his head a bit? After he started to have an inkling regarding Noburi's strategic value? If we need to go through him to get this mission... Hell no, he ain't rubber-stamping this. And he'd realize we're about to go missing, and take serious measures before we can disappear.
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Well, we could use that. Naruto needs a really good reason if the Akatsuki comes and ask what is going on, and what better reason there is than an actually good reason? Hazou running away because Naruto got close to a very good secret of the Goketsu is pretty good cover story, because it's not a cover story.
We'll need to workshop a bit the execution with Mari, but we could use it as a cover story: better than "Hazou suddenly decides to do necromancy, i swear i had nothing to do with that".
 
Noumero said:
... there's no freaking way Naruto approves that, is there?
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It doesn't need to be so obvious.

The Tower obviously doesn't do a great job of tracking ninja out on active missions: see Akane. I have doubts that we cant send Nobs + Yuno, and Kei out on one mission while Mari, Kagome, and Hazou go out to do another. Its possible that we could just get that rubber-stamped.

That makes a lot more sense FMPOV.

(As always, strategy proposals are equivalence classes modulo common sense optimizations, insofar as there's no point becoming too attached to any particular step-by-step plan of action. No plan survives contact with the enemy, etc.)
 
Sir Stompy said:
This 100%, I'm here to win, not here to Uplift for a few hundred chapters -the majority of which is done offscreen- until Leaf is destroyed by God-Emporer Pain.
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I'm not here to abandon nearly everything we care about to be destroyed and tortured to oblivion in a desperate Hail Mary attempt to "win" the game.

I care about Uplift, and it will wither and die without us in Konoha. I care about Ino, and she will die horrifically if we leave the village. I care about Team Uplift, and we will all die horrifically from Hidan and Itachi walking in to our skybase if we leave.
 
_The_Bomb said:
I'm not here to abandon nearly everything we care about to be destroyed and tortured to oblivion in a desperate Hail Mary attempt to "win" the game.

I care about Uplift, and it will wither and die without us in Konoha. I care about Ino, and she will die horrifically if we leave the village. I care about Team Uplift, and we will all die horrifically from Hidan and Itachi walking in to our skybase if we leave.
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Doomer behavior. We will win instead.
 
I'd like to provide a rationale for why I'm in the camp of staying within Leaf instead of going missing. I understand that barriers to rune research, a ban on dimensionalism research, Noburi's strategic importance, and the tower mole(s) are a few of the impediments frustrating the hivemind solving two apocalyptic scenarios. Leaving would remove plenty of those roadblocks but would require some great sacrifices to the characters. My answer to that is to lean further into the bonds we've cultivated over the course of the quest.

Our relationship with the other clans and some side characters has been mostly positive. There's been miscommunication and insults at times, but there's also been wonderful successes and exchanges when we've gotten it right. We have examples of team Guy delivering our substrate samples to us or lending credence to the crusade, Aburame telescopes, and our trade deals with Orochimaru. Exploring joint-ventures similar to the above further would, in my view, allow the Goketsu to share the risk with others, giving us more of a manpower and time buffer. In short, it seems like we have a delegation problem and the cost is how much power we're willing to cede to others to accomplish our goals.
 
What I find incredibly frustrating about the go missing/stay in Leaf vote is how much it's basically a proxy for quest engagement. Leave now voters have made 68693 post. While stay voters have made 31809 post but 25753 of those post are from Faflec Georg is an outlier that should not be counted.
 
Orisha91 said:
I'd like to provide a rationale for why I'm in the camp of staying within Leaf instead of going missing. I understand that barriers to rune research, a ban on dimensionalism research, Noburi's strategic importance, and the tower mole(s) are a few of the impediments frustrating the hivemind solving two apocalyptic scenarios. Leaving would remove plenty of those roadblocks but would require some great sacrifices to the characters. My answer to that is to lean further into the bonds we've cultivated over the course of the quest.

Our relationship with the other clans and some side characters has been mostly positive. There's been miscommunication and insults at times, but there's also been wonderful successes and exchanges when we've gotten it right. We have examples of team Guy delivering our substrate samples to us or lending credence to the crusade, Aburame telescopes, and our trade deals with Orochimaru. Exploring joint-ventures similar to the above further would, in my view, allow the Goketsu to share the risk with others, giving us more of a manpower and time buffer. In short, it seems like we have a delegation problem and the cost is how much power we're willing to cede to others to accomplish our goals.
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I think the decision is between going for an Uplift victory or a Leaf victory. We CAN stay, but the winning path with the highest chance of success there is to empower Leaf via Noburi's VD and chakra stones, to work alongside Orochimaru on runic solutions, to work alongside all of these connections youve mentioned but in a much more open way. A lot of these cards that we've held close to our chest would have to be revealed.
 
Inferno Vulpix said:
[X] Lore Update
[X] (Non-Binding) Treasonous Meetings

I see where you're coming from, but I can't help but feel like after I thoroughly outlined a salient scenario where I and others did actively work to model the relevant fictional characters and largely stopped for a lack of information (that you had more information is not relevant to this, I must note) and you just turned around and repeated that you think we don't do this thing. The impression this segment conveyed to me is, rather, that you have an underlying sentiment feeling regarding the overall state of the situation and are using that as your lodestone in a way that I can't really engage with in any way.

I must admit that it's also frustrating to see a criticism levied against me that includes "but you also don't recognize this flaw" because that props up your argument with an endless circle of "ah, but you just say that you don't have this flaw because you have already been blinded to it!" I am left feeling like there is nothing I could say or show that would convince you to change your mind, that you have already reached your conclusion and are just attempting to shame me - or rather, the model of me that you have in your head - for not living up to your standards.

I don't think you are actually approaching this in such a way, of course, but your words have been frustrating and a little hurtful all the same. I do try to model these fictional people and cultures, after all, and I showed you an example where I and others spent time doing just that, and receiving a criticism that reads as "nah, I still think you suck, and also you're epistemically compromised in a way that makes it impossible to meaningfully disagree with me" stings the pride of my honest and earnest attempts to do exactly the thing you wish me to do.

From my side of the table, I feel as if I have outlined a reason why it might appear to people not involved in the planmaking process that the planmakers do not think about these things, when it is actually true that the planmakers do think about these things a lot and simply do not always reach confidence about their answers. As someone frequently involved in the planmaking process, and very present for these moments, I am much more likely to say that this is the main factor at play here than I am to say that every planmaker is socially deficient and epistemically compromised. With respect, please do not levy accusations against our character like that without more tangible evidence to back it up. I understand that you were merely expressing a vague feeling you have, but it is still a hurtful accusation that should not be exercised carelessly.
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That specific Yuno thing was just one example and not an egregious one. As you said, it was meant to be caught by sanity checkers if necessary, as it was. And honestly, as I said before, I often just hope that plans with such elements get outvoted and I have that hope because that in fact often happens. But there is just a frequent throughline of several people talking about future consequences and scenarios as if they are not modeling the NPCs, especially the adversarial ones, as people as opposed to obstacles. Or at least that's how it feels to me. And every now and then this makes it into a plan, that then wins, sometimes in a way where sanity checking doesn't prevent all the consequences.

And sure, the biggest examples that come to everyone's mind is stuff that I wouldn't have been noticed by me either even if I had paid attention. Like the "pretty damn far" thing, that I never blamed on players, be they specific ones or in aggregate. But other times it seems that social consequences are just being ignored by some, and that characters are treated as if they are going to react the way they "should" instead of based on their own internal incentives and characterization.

A recent example that hasn't made it into any winning plans (yet) is the recurring insistence that trying to take Ino along is in any way realistic. This for instance is an obviously unrealistic proposal and many others have said so. Yet there seem to be players, including regular or semi-regular posters, who just blithely continue to talk and vote and write plans as if that were an option. And all it takes is a low and skewed turnout during some pivotal plan vote for that to result in unnecessary horror.

Again, the correct response to that from me would be to be here more, participate more, give more constructive criticism and to maybe write my own plans from time to time. And me doing none of that while continuing to complain can be put into a similar category to people who don't care about politics until a party they don't like wins an election they didn't participate in. And for that I am sorry. I just can't find the energy for consistent participation. Seeing the connections between worldbuilding elements (including political and social ones) comes easy to me, being proactive generally does not.

In the end the only thing I hope from my rant is that more people pause and try to imagine themselves in the shoes of affected characters before promoting plans with wide social consequences. To ask themselves "and then what happens" more often, including the imagining of worst case scenarios. And I'm definitely not saying that no one is currently doing that, Just that I'd like to see more of it.



Back to the actual issue at hand:
Buggy said:
I'll also note, I think there's basically no chance that Naruto approves of this mission, because the entire point is to be deniable. It is not deniable if the Hokage greenlights a insane and bizarre mission for a entire clan to leave Leaf. The slightest investigative effort on Akatsuki's part is going to uncover that and it'll be suspicious as all hell.
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I agree. It seems that some have forgotten about why Naruto asked us in absolute secrecy. He doesn't just want to hide that he approved of this from Akatsuki, but also from all the Clan Heads in all of Leaf. Anything that requires Leaf institutions to blithely play along is right out.

MMKII said:
It doesn't need to be so obvious.

The Tower obviously doesn't do a great job of tracking ninja out on active missions: see Akane. I have doubts that we cant send Nobs + Yuno, and Kei out on one mission while Mari, Kagome, and Hazou go out to do another. Its possible that we could just get that rubber-stamped.

That makes a lot more sense FMPOV.

(As always, strategy proposals are equivalence classes modulo common sense optimizations, insofar as there's no point becoming too attached to any particular step-by-step plan of action. No plan survives contact with the enemy, etc.)
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An important thing to remember is that attempting and failing to go missing doesn't end in a whoopsie. It ends in executions of those that attempted.

RandomOTP said:
Same.

I don't want to abandon Leaf, our Clan, and the Uplift Movement we've created... but the alternative is leaving the world to the tender mercies of the Akatsuki and a Resurrected Pain as the Immortal Godkings of the World.

And that way lies a Bad End for everyone. So yeah, we need to leave. It'll suck in the short term, but it's the better move, longterm.
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It's attempting to leave with the whole inner family that I have a problem with. I don't see how we plan to keep the non-summoners safe. And I don't think that the collateral is worth it.

God-King Pain is not an extinction event as far as we know. I'm not even sure it is worse than, say, EM proliferation among the world's chuunin+ fire element users.

So as I said a while ago, I'd rather just leave with the fewest people possible. Few enough that Clan Goketsu can still exist in some form. Few enough that everyone's love turns to sorrow instead of hate.

I guess we could still ask Kei/Snowlfake and Noburi/Yuno to come along, just to respect their agency. But I do not want to incentivize them at all beyond that and I actually hope they say no if we ask them.
Sir Stompy said:
Doomer behavior. We will win instead.
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Even if we win instead, for the time that it takes us to win we will have no way to influence the fates of all the Goketsu not joining us or of all the loved ones of the people we do take along. And even if necromancy fully succeeds, Itachi can inflict fates worse than death.
 
Oneiros said:
What I find incredibly frustrating about the go missing/stay in Leaf vote is how much it's basically a proxy for quest engagement. Leave now voters have made 68693 post. While stay voters have made 31809 post but 25753 of those post are from Faflec Georg is an outlier that should not be counted.
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Excuse me! I'm an incredibly active player and I'm on Team Stay.
 
A grounded prediction of what specific milestones are possible if we stay or leave would be really crucial for this debate. Currently "leave" is as nebulous as "stay" so there is a lot of (frankly repetitive) argumentation pointing at the weakest features of either path.

Even after several months of watching plans and reading discord, I don't think that effortpost is going to come from me. But each side should seriously consider championing an argument in the style of "this procedure is how we win." Rihaku pushed for aggressive rune research, for example, and was able to update his own model of the quest fairly quickly as specific concerns were raised. I think the same process would illuminate the stay/leave decision pretty effectively.

Personally, I think that the constraints on our decision making are binding enough that some concession is required. Whether that means allowing Orochimaru to gain a higher proportion of the power from Rune research, or pushing around the Goketsu and damaging some relationships… making one plan at a time to carefully minimize every risk leads to following the path of least resistance of simply never taking action against the Dimensionalism ban.
 
Oneiros said:
What I find incredibly frustrating about the go missing/stay in Leaf vote is how much it's basically a proxy for quest engagement. Leave now voters have made 68693 post. While stay voters have made 31809 post but 25753 of those post are from Faflec Georg is an outlier that should not be counted.
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This is a really interesting point. Thanks for making it.
Rafin said:
Even if we win instead, for the time that it takes us to win we will have no way to influence the fates of all the Goketsu not joining us or of all the loved ones of the people we do take along. And even if necromancy fully succeeds, Itachi can inflict fates worse than death.
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I don't care about this sorry.

I'm in it to win it. Not to protect the lives of every single nameless Goketsu civvie. We're taking everyone I really care about (except for Ino).

I don't want them to be tortured, I do not think they will be tortured. But I am willing to accept that risk.
 
Condemning everyone to a lifetime of tyranny that Shikamaru was skeptical would remain stable for long seems more cruel, to me.
 
ProperAttorney said:
I think the decision is between going for an Uplift victory or a Leaf victory. We CAN stay, but the winning path with the highest chance of success there is to empower Leaf via Noburi's VD and chakra stones, to work alongside Orochimaru on runic solutions, to work alongside all of these connections youve mentioned but in a much more open way. A lot of these cards that we've held close to our chest would have to be revealed.
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Yeah. Basically this. I know the win condition for most of the playerbase would be an Uplift based victory. My thoughts are that Hazou and the team have had a few good chances of expanding or drawing Leaf clan heads into the orbit of Uplift, it's just a matter of degrees. I definitely want a happy medium that doesnt sacrifice agency but opens a path to cooperation and disclosure that doesn't screw the Goketsu.
 
I don't think publicized approaches work when Leaf is crawling with spies. I do not think it was coincidence that within like 3 months of the discovery of EM nuke everyone who could possibly use it was dead. The Tower can't be trusted here
 
While we're all having a heart-to-heart, this is how I think about the future of the quest:

I am feeling extremely doomy about our long-term success. I think we will most likely die or be unable to prevent Pain from returning. Or maybe Pain is too far gone to come back, and Akatsuki gains control of the rift and the power to resurrect anyone who's been dead for, say, 30 days or less. Or maybe Rock or Cloud steal the rift from Akatsuki and gain that power. Regardless, of all the possibilities, I think most of them result in Hazō dead or under someone else's thumb semi-permanently. So, with that in mind, I really really do not want this quest to consist of another year or two of meetings and politics and nothing very interesting happening before we eventually loose. I'd much rather just get it over with and move on to a new, hopefully more fun quest (IIRC the QMs intend to do that once MfD is over).

IMO MfD has had serious structural problems, in terms of the narrative, for at least several years now, and one of the major redeeming qualities has been the light at the end of the tunnel that one day all of our effort will pay off and Hazō will get to do really cool things. And I think that light is fading.
 
acidshill said:
While we're all having a heart-to-heart, this is how I think about the future of the quest:

I am feeling extremely doomy about our long-term success. I think we will most likely die or be unable to prevent Pain from returning. Or maybe Pain is too far gone to come back, and Akatsuki gains control of the rift and the power to resurrect anyone who's been dead for, say, 30 days or less. Or maybe Rock or Cloud steal the rift from Akatsuki and gain that power. Regardless, of all the possibilities, I think most of them result in Hazō dead or under someone else's thumb semi-permanently. So, with that in mind, I really really do not want this quest to consist of another year or two of meetings and politics and nothing very interesting happening before we eventually loose. I'd much rather just get it over with and move on to a new, hopefully more fun quest (IIRC the QMs intend to do that once MfD is over).

IMO MfD has had serious structural problems, in terms of the narrative, for at least several years now, and one of the major redeeming qualities has been the light at the end of the tunnel that one day all of our effort will pay off and Hazō will get to do really cool things. And I think that light is fading.
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I understand and sympathize but my preferred solution to this is to find the eternal "fuck it we ball" within ourselves. As for the structural stuff, my main input is that as far as the IC narrative goes, the only problem that can really be solved with facepunches is Hazo needing more info and even that being explicitly connected to punching to Hazo (OOC we've understood this is a game we play for the fun of everyone involved including QMs forever) is new-ish compared to how long the problem's been ongoing. The dragons are unpunchable by people who had to work their way up to Essie instead of already having started the quest as Essies. Akatsuki could theoretically have been sorta punchable but them always using the buddy system and being various degrees of careful/paranoid above the ninja norm kind of kill that, so they need another esoteric vector to handle. Societal issues need coordination.

Overall there's a mismatch between the combination of the quest's premise, our starting point, and as far as I can tell, where the QMs seem to hope we would go. Every established player has vested interests in not being aligned with Hazo's goals and will generally seek to minimize his power and/or suborn his efforts to their own benefit. Every established player is also so ridiculously strong that even if we'd gone for an entirely different build and made current Hazo a punchjonin who tried to fight them he'd just have died on contact with them. This would all be okay if the problems we got weren't also inherently unpunchable.



Also, a new react appears. What does this mean about Jashin? Is it a countdown? Or perhaps it represents the first of the Sage's five companions?
 
For the whole "The Akatsuki is going to kill us", if we play this well, we can edge our bets so that even if we lose, we are still in the game, example: We remain in a "long term mission" instead of missing for the majority of time outside Leaf, if the Akatsuki is far faster than us and ressurects Pain before we're ready, we have still the possibility of returning to Leaf with a scroll or two...or try to take on Pain if we think it's possible. We always had bad cards, the secret is how to play them well.
We have Mari, Runecrafting, an Hokage that understands our situation and FOOM. Regardless of the path we choose, if we're not suicidal or impatient, we can survive. So i would suggest less "We're all going to die" and more "how can we survive?" mindset :V
 
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