Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

[Sentient Tree]

Updates to my plan might interest you.

@RandomOTP, @Sentient Tree, @Lord Marshal, I've made updates - feedback is welcome.

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Personally it seems good to me, at first glance i would add the Noburi scenes...but it's already a lot of scenes and adding that would probably be too much, so...yeah, good to me.

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Seems fine to me, and I too would like the Noburi scene ("Noburi, if you're sad you never got the chance to date or be romantic, how about you try dating/being romantic towards Yuno?").

Also, am I misinterpreting the plan, or does it only have 2 scenes? Is the problem just that they're very big scenes?

"I had a vision of Jiraiya, but I need to verify some information from said vision before I can know whether it was real, or just me hallucinating what I wanted to see. By the way, you're welcome for dinner."
The natural reaction I expect naruto to say is "Sounds good. What was the vision?"

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This sounds very reasonable to me. Why are we hiding this from Naruto, anyway? The vision gains more legitimacy if a non-Gōketsu third party hears it before we've had time to potentially change it based on what Ma and Pa say, and I don't think there's anything in there that Naruto would use against us or be offended by.

 

[FaintlySorcerous]

Also, am I misinterpreting the plan, or does it only have 2 scenes? Is the problem just that they're very big scenes?

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Two scenes. My last plan for Vel had two, and only one was written. They're large-ish.

Seems fine to me, and I too would like the Noburi scene ("Noburi, if you're sad you never got the chance to date or be romantic, how about you try dating/being romantic towards Yuno?").

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I don't think that's really going to fit here. It's a good idea. We can probably bring it up when we're talking to him and Yuno about the incident.

Why are we hiding this from Naruto, anyway?

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NB: my plan asks if he wants to know.

I think we should lodge a copy of our recollection with a Tower notary or something so we can't be accused of making this up after the fact.

 

[Halil]

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Why bring in the notary? Aren't we trying to control this information's spread primarily?
That aside, the plan looks good to me.

 

[FaintlySorcerous]

Why bring in the notary? Aren't we trying to control this information's spread primarily?
That aside, the plan looks good to me.

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I'm probably going to leave it largely as is. I think that somehow securing a copy of what we saw so we can't be accused of changing our recollection to suit our purposes would be wise, but I'm leaving that up to the characters.

 

[Shrooms]

[y] Keep repeating the ritual when healed but remove one factor at a time to figure out which parts matter

 

[coldcutconvict]

[X] Comedown

• Check if no one else saw the vision.
• Share the vision in full with everyone at the ritual.
  • Too coherent to be a hallucination, pending confirmation of details with Toads.
  • We understand if Naruto does not believe us. We did not know there would be a vision or what it would show but the information it revealed is all something we could have prepared.
  • We are going to treat the vision as real unless details fail to be confirmed.
• Take a moment to think about what this second data point means about the afterlife. Is this what the afterlife has always been? Did someone corrupt it to be this way?
  • Large acidic oceans. If landing spot is determined by chance, most people would end up like Daizen. Falling into it infinitely until whatever essence they are formed from dissipates. Must dissipate eventually or the sky would be filled with falling humans.
  • No night time?
  • Patches of white sand for lucky people to land on. Where did they come from? Formed from the bones of others until enough accumulate to breach the ocean?
  • Do dead bijuu go there?
  • What happens to the landed? Do they fade over time? Do they need to eat? Mundane madness from isolation? Did everyone that ever died go to that place to go mad or come to terms with their inevitable demise, worn away to nothing?
• This cannot stand.
  • Note Jiraiya's appearance in as much detail as possible. What can be learned from the damage to his clothes and length of his hair? Pull Shikamaru for inferences. Daizen was naked when he died and dying every few seconds. Can try to make guesses about if memory deterioration is tied to death count. Is Jiraiya on his 'first' death or dying of starvation in cycles?
  • Verify details of what Jiraiya said with Ma and Pa.
  • Unlikely to be able to repeat the ritual at will. Components might be draining of metaphysical connection to Jiraiya. Can Hazō's 'voice' be raised? Any feeling on what governed his volume? If he can be contacted again, we can rally his morale and tell him to make a landmark to spot on the rescue operation.
  • Work on logistics for searching a large area. Shrinking portals determine logistics of what is brought in compared to how much time is saved on a round trip. Use Condors for height and speed?

 

[Halil]

I'm probably going to leave it largely as is. I think that somehow securing a copy of what we saw so we can't be accused of changing our recollection to suit our purposes would be wise, but I'm leaving that up to the characters.

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That's a good enough reason for me. I hadn't thought of changing the story angle, though I would have hoped that Naruto's testimony would have been enough.

 

[Halil]

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There are some good ideas here, like using flying summons to S&R faster, checking our assumptions, making a landmark etc.

Unfortunately voters are unlikely to change votes on average, if only due to logistics, so it'd be good to remember these ideas for the actual operations rather than the meticulous prep phase for the prep phase we are in at the moment.

 

[coldcutconvict]

Do dead bijuu go there?

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This throwaway bijuu comment is sparking a thought. Can the Nine Tails weigh in on what we saw?

 

[Unaligned Player]

This throwaway bijuu comment is sparking a thought. Can the Nine Tails weigh in on what we saw?

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Kurama: You meddle with forces far beyond all of us, boy.
Hazou: I'm on the right track, got it.

 

[Sir Stompy]

[X] Action Plan: Moving Slowly

@FaintlySorcerous can you put an offscreen section where it's mentioned that Hazou continues preparing for MARS and reading Sealing Notes w/ SCs for the duration of the plan

 

[ProperAttorney]

[X] Action Plan: Dotting Ts and Crossing Is
Length: 1 day
Word count: TBD

• Naruto, we'll need to check some things to verify if it's real. Do you want to join us or hear the results?
  • Include Naruto if yes.
• Meet Uplift under max OpSec.
  • Use the good anti-hyuuga seals.
  • Share everything from our vision. Answer questions truthfully.
  • Kagome told me that you lose memories over time in Naraka. I think he is right.
    • Akane, Noburi, and Naruto should gather every story about Jiraiya possible.
  • Ask Noburi if he thinks he can make a temporary contract with Ma and/or Pa. The clan's coffers are open if need be.
    • How would they feel about saving Jirayia?
  • Explain Hazō's concern at this information getting out.
    • AMITY failing due to other nations' fear.
    • Harm coming to the Goketsu as others try to kidnap/subvert/kill us.
    • Conflict with religious ideology.
  • Nevertheless, we will rescue Jiraiya. It will be done carefully.
  • If Naruto is present:
    • We have tests that we need to run on the rift.
    • We may need someone to help keep us safe. Can we count on you?
  • Kagome, would it be helpful to have Sasuke and a Hyuuga?
    • If yes, have Mari, Naruto, and Noburi work on securing their aid.
  • We will be heading out as soon as Asuma authorizes it.
    • The Leaf delegation has been gone longer than during our Exam. Do we know when they're expected back?
    • How much do we tell Asuma?
      • Asuma knows most details already.
      • Only vision is left to disclose.
  • Thank everyone for helping us get this far.
• If Noburi is able to contract Ma and/or Pa, schedule a time to summon them.
  • Max Opsec. Mari and Noburi sanity check.
  • Tell them as much as appropriate.
  • Ask for their help.
• Offscreen
  • Inform Naruto of findings.
  • 4x SC read Sealing Notes.
  • SC Prep for MARS attempt.

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Made some edits, including continuing our sealing plans, separating the Ma + Pa scene, some sanity checks, etc.

 

[FaintlySorcerous]

@FaintlySorcerous can you put an offscreen section where it's mentioned that Hazou continues preparing for MARS and reading Sealing Notes w/ SCs for the duration of the plan

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Done, with some minor wording changes to keep wordcount.

 

[faflec]

[X] Action Plan: Moving Slowly

We saw something. We need to verify if it was real or what we wanted to see.

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To be clear: You want to verify if a) what we saw was real; xor b) we saw only what we wanted to see, correct? Because I'm reading it as if it were a) or b), which has slightly different meanings.

Perhaps you should say "We need to verify if it was real or just what we wanted to see."

Ask Naruto if he wants to know what we saw.

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This seems...not quite the intent we want to portray towards Naruto, possibly because the presumed follow-up "tell him what we saw if he says yes" isn't there.

Consider "Tell Naruto what happened if he wants to know."

Tighten OPSEC and discuss the implications. (Over dinner? Include Naruto if he wants.)

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I don't mind it being over dinner, or after dinner, or whenever, but feel it should be made explicit.

When you do, try to arrange for one-time contracts to have them confirm this to others when needed.

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Ignoring that I'm pretty sure Noburi can't summon either Toad anytime soon, maybe this is jumping the gun a bit much?

Apart from the above, I would highly include Kagome in the discussion, and discuss the implications of Jiraiya's seeming-memory loss in the context of Kagome's previous assertions on the afterlife being accurate to at least a degree, as was mentioned in the Discord.

 

[Shrooms]

HAZOU: Hmm, I need a third party that can mediate between Noburi and Yuno. I'm too busy to make it a regular thing. Mari's out because Yuno hates her. Akane is depressed... Ino doesn't really know either of them well enough. Ami is Ami and doesn't believe in marriage or long term relationships anyways. Kei... no. Snowflake... maybe. Shikamaru? Lol. Kagome? Lmao. Well, who's left?

NEJI:

HAZOU:

NEJI: *starts sprinting away*

HAZOU: GET BACK HERE LOVERBOY

 

[FaintlySorcerous]

To be clear: You want to verify if a) what we saw was real; xor b) we saw only what we wanted to see, correct? Because I'm reading it as if it were a) or b), which has slightly different meanings.

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I've changed the wording to 'we saw something. We aren't sure if it was real. We need to verify it.' Does that sound good? I'm admittedly not quite sure what you're seeing.

This seems...not quite the intent we want to portray towards Naruto, possibly because the presumed follow-up "tell him what we saw if he says yes" isn't there.

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I've made this change.

I don't mind it being over dinner, or after dinner, or whenever, but feel it should be made explicit.

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I've made this change.

Ignoring that I'm pretty sure Noburi can't summon either Toad anytime soon, maybe this is jumping the gun a bit much?

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Noburi can Summon a Toad with up to 34k XP. A Hazo build with an 89 and a doublecost 70 was ~20k XP. I think that it's quite possible they're in that range.

That said, I have changed 'ask Ma and Pa to verify this' to 'visit Ma and Pa to verify this'.

I don't think that checking this out is jumping the gun. Can you elaborate as to the risk you see? (Also note that I ask if we should verify now.) I don't think that securing one-time contracts to verify that we're not full of shit if it turns out that this is real is moving too quickly, either.

Apart from the above, I would highly include Kagome in the discussion, and discuss the implications of Jiraiya's seeming-memory loss in the context of Kagome's previous assertions on the afterlife being accurate to at least a degree, as was mentioned in the Discord.

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I'm not in favour of this for a few reasons.

• Vel is writing this update and has a harder time writing Kagome.
• We can tell him later with little penalty - we need another meeting, but we'd need that anyway.
• I don't think it's necessarily wise to enclose Naruto and Kagome especially when Kagome might not be feeling great about Naruto and Naruto might be in an emotional place.
• The possibility of a secret leaking is proportional to the square of the number of people who know it.

I do encourage you to fork my plan to include Kagome in the discussion. Right now I have Hazo cover Kagome's theories and suggest him as someone to include.

 

[faflec]

I don't think that checking this out is jumping the gun. Can you elaborate as to the risk you see? (Also note that I ask if we should verify now.) I don't think that securing one-time contracts to verify that we're not full of shit if it turns out that this is real is moving too quickly, either.

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To be clear, I'm specifically concerned that securing one-time contracts might be seen as...Noburi concocting this excuse in order to get their support in a crazy-scheme that may or may not be true but would almost certainly benefit Goketsu.

I mean, think of things from the perspective of someone who doesn't know Hazou's...Hazou-ness. Jiraiya could have very well written down for Hazou and co. to find, and Ma and Pa have no real way to verify that we're being honest in the insanity that gave us this information. It's not a likely thing to happen, but the thought is gonna be there, just like how the thought was there for Asuma regarding the Great Seal being a Goketsu plot.

I'm not in favour of this for a few reasons.

• Vel is writing this update and has a harder time writing Kagome.
• We can tell him later with little penalty - we need another meeting, but we'd need that anyway.
• I don't think it's necessarily wise to enclose Naruto and Kagome especially when Kagome might not be feeling great about Naruto and Naruto might be in an emotional place.
• The possibility of a secret leaking is proportional to the square of the number of people who know it.

I do encourage you to fork my plan to include Kagome in the discussion. Right now I have Hazo cover Kagome's theories and suggest him as someone to include.

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Personally I would prefer Kagome to Naruto when discussing what happened, and nothing is really keeping us from inviting Naruto to a meal tomorrow when we aren't apparently shaking off the effects of Mari's Jonin Aura (and would thus be a subpar host). I'd actually suggest to do this anyway, if you are going to invite Naruto.

Can't say much on Kagome spilling the secret, though I would still want to talk to him anyway, and soon. Maybe in the Seventh Path while we are investigating the Great Seal later?

 

[FaintlySorcerous]

To be clear, I'm specifically concerned that securing one-time contracts might be seen as...Noburi concocting this excuse in order to get their support in a crazy-scheme that may or may not be true but would almost certainly benefit Goketsu.

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I'm largely inclined to leave this up to Noburi - I can rephrase it so it's more obviously a suggestion. If he thinks it's a good idea - and he's the expert - I think we're in good shape. I think Asuma's going to want to hear it from someone who isn't us. Hopefully when Tsunade blasts us, our credibility increases yet again.

Personally I would prefer Kagome to Naruto when discussing what happened, and nothing is really keeping us from inviting Naruto to a meal tomorrow when we aren't apparently shaking off the effects of Mari's Jonin Aura (and would thus be a subpar host). I'd actually suggest to do this anyway, if you are going to invite Naruto.

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I want the first conversation to center things that I don't think Kagome can really help with - the politics and repercussions. He can talk to us about mechanics, but for now we can assume that we should try to get this done ASAP. What do you think he would add to the conversation?

Can't say much on Kagome spilling the secret, though I would still want to talk to him anyway, and soon. Maybe in the Seventh Path while we are investigating the Great Seal later?

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That sounds smart, yeah. To be clear, I'm not really concerned about him saying anything, but we can't un-tell him, or anyone else. Waiting until it's necessary or at least maximally useful seems wise.

We should include Naruto because if this goes well we'll never have a better chance to re-forge that alliance.

We should include Noburi because I want to ask about Ma and Pa.

We should include Mari because she's the sanity-checker for this sort of thing.

I figure the next step is Kei, Shika, and Kagome.

 

[faflec]

I'm largely inclined to leave this up to Noburi - I can rephrase it so it's more obviously a suggestion. If he thinks it's a good idea - and he's the expert - I think we're in good shape. I think Asuma's going to want to hear it from someone who isn't us. Hopefully when Tsunade blasts us, our credibility increases yet again.

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This seems reasonable.

I want the first conversation to center things that I don't think Kagome can really help with - the politics and repercussions. He can talk to us about mechanics, but for now we can assume that we should try to get this done ASAP. What do you think he would add to the conversation?

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Ah, I see. I had been assuming the plan was intended to focus on both the political ramifications as well as additional avenues of future action.

 

[Halil]

I don't think it's in the realm of possibility that Ma and Pa would genuinely think Noburi is trying to trick them into a short term contract. Why?
The goal of the entire operation is obvious and will be known to the toads, plus something we clearly want - from their perspective. Most importantly, Ma and Pa know that there is no scenario where Noburi can pull such a blatant fast one on them, especially when our goal is so crystal clear, the toads can say "no" at any time, and we can't ever coerce them into cooperation.

This worry is a good example of the over fitting of risk projections that we were talking about in the discord. We focus so hard on the minutiae + the second and third order effects that obvious first order considerations become harder to see with the remaining attention we have.

 

[Cariyaga]

Updates to my plan might interest you.

@RandomOTP, @Sentient Tree, @Lord Marshal, I've made updates - feedback is welcome.

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I would like to propose a scene where we send Noburi to learn basic chakra pool expansion techniques from Kagome with Honoka, to find out if he can now train his internal chakra reserves.

It'll be adorable. It'll get our teeth kicked in with pranks. It might just get Noburi his S-rank trick.

 

[faflec]

I don't think it's in the realm of possibility that Ma and Pa would genuinely think Noburi is trying to trick them into a short term contract. Why?
The goal of the entire operation is obvious and will be known to the toads, plus something we clearly want - from their perspective. Most importantly, Ma and Pa know that there is no scenario where Noburi can pull such a blatant fast one on them, especially when our goal is so crystal clear, the toads can say "no" at any time, and we can't ever coerce them into cooperation.

This worry is a good example of the over fitting of risk projections that we were talking about in the discord. We focus so hard on the minutiae + the second and third order effects that obvious first order considerations become harder to see with the remaining attention we have.

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Past experience leads me to conclude that pointing out even minor failure modes is worth doing. The alternative, which has been experienced before, is that these seemingly minor blips are left alone, resulting in catastrophe.

 

[Halil]

Past experience leads me to conclude that pointing out even minor failure modes is worth doing. The alternative, which has been experienced before, is that these seemingly minor blips are left alone, resulting in catastrophe.

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The fact that this is an entirely valid standpoint is why we can't stop doing it even after it causes failure modes itself. Nobody has forgotten the lessons learned from The Situations.

It's a thorny, twisted problem that IRL strategic teams mostly rely on institutionalized processes to handle.

Edit: But something feels off with this problem. Like risks have a different fear-factor to them here that are missing IRL. Probably either our inability to use contextual / researched information that we can IRL, or that Hazou and co. just feel so much more fragile with regards to risk - and those catastrophes you mention.

All of this results in increased difficulty in prioritizing risk, and choosing what risks to bear / which to mitigate.

 

[faflec]

The fact that this is an entirely valid standpoint is why we can't stop doing it even after it causes failure modes itself, because nobody has forgotten the lessons learned from The Situations.

It's a thorny, twisted problem that IRL strategic teams mostly rely on institutionalized processes to handle.

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...to be clear, what major failures occurring in the quest are you referring to?

 

[Halil]

...to be clear, what major failures occurring in the quest are you referring to?

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Of course a lack of caution will lead to more visible failures (which is why, I assume, your comparison specifies 'major' failures). Because what overmuch caution really costs you is:

1 - Opportunity cost. When we take things too slow or prepare too much, the best outcome is that we only wasted time - which compounds into lost progress. This is bad enough, but its less visible nature causes us to discount it. The rarer and worse outcomes of over-fitting risk have looked like the following.

(These were after this update, since my encyclopedic knowledge is not nearly as great as most people here)
2 - The misapprehension that Ma and Pa could think Noburi might be tricking them for contracts leads to additional unnecessary measures at best, offending someone or losing their support at worst. That almost happened in 4.
3 - Related to that, we actually almost didn't (I believe this changed) keep Naruto in the loop, because there just might be a second/third order effect that eventually resulted in Naruto becoming a risk vector. We've already discussed this, but the gist is that it is wrong. Furthermore, if you subscribe to the spoons, that it took a multitude of spoons to weigh an obvious first order failure to indeterminate and irrelevant (because he already knew enough) second and third order worries should show you that this can be a deleterious mode of thinking.

From a prior update:
4 - The Orochimaru deal. We were so worried about the minutiae of how the Essie could screw the deal, and spent so much effort on what amounts to legalese, that we missed the much more primary concern of "Orochimaru does not care about this. If you try to make him care about this, he will grow irritated. If he grows irritated, the best thing that can happen is that you won't be able to make him go along." I.e. his core personality reacting not to the content but the existence of our list of stipulations.

Obviously, I cannot easily show you compounding opportunity cost. How much you discount that is up to you, but I assume you support FOOM.
And yeah, I sure would have liked having Jiraiya back already.