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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Paperclipped said:
As a slightly more thorough sniff test:

The highlighted region, roughly, is what I think could reasonably be described as Wind's "northern border". The highlighted region is 435x610 pixels, out of an image of 1757x2100 pixels. That means it takes up roughly 0.075 of the image.

Probability of flipping a coin with p(heads) = 0.075 and getting heads 12 or more times:
\[ \sum_{x=12}^{30} {30 \choose x} (0.075)^x (1 - 0.075)^{30-x} = 0.000000757 \]

Obviously, each roll of the dice is not uniformly distributed across the whole map, much less independent. We could try to build a better model of what the actual numbers would be, but it's clearly pretty damn significant already.
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Note that, in the end, you're working with approximations. The map Hazō has is nothing like the map you have in terms of accuracy and detail, or even correctness of proportions.
 
I asked for SCIENCE and you gave me KABBALISM.

You should all be ashamed.

Mom can we have science?
Mom: No we have science at home.
Science at home:
 
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RandomOTP said:
So Hazou realizes that Ami was right when she warned him that his relationship with Akane was becoming similar to her relationship with Kei. Hazou-pilot recognizes the unhealthiness of this near-worship. We should act quickly to address this (maybe with Ino moderating, since even she thought their dynamic was a little concerning?) before it grows out of hand.
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@eaglejarl, pardon the ping, but how would you feel about writing such an update? I want to get on this while it's still at the forefront of our minds, but while I know you've warmed up to the idea of writing romantic scenes, I worry that the "talky" nature of the update will detract from whatever other positives you might find in it.

If the thought of this conversation doesn't spark joy, I'm willing to spend this planmaking period working on it as a protoplan, to be (hopefully) implemented during Vel's next update.
 
Oneiros said:
Yeah since Cannai wasn't willing to let us cut a deal moved onto solving the problem from the other end. Noburi's already got approval from all the relevant parties plus Asuma should still be willing to fund the mission since he agreed to do it in the opposite direction already
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Being specific, Cannai was bothered that you didn't talk to him before you tried to cut a deal with an individual dog to have them go off to foreign nations. If you had talked to him then he might or might not have been onboard.

MrRobot said:
So jashin (aka @eaglejarl with a funny hat) is RNJesus too...
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Interestingly enough, I did have input into how this turned out...

RandomOTP said:
@eaglejarl, pardon the ping, but how would you feel about writing such an update? I want to get on this while it's still at the forefront of our minds, but while I know you've warmed up to the idea of writing romantic scenes, I worry that the "talky" nature of the update will detract from whatever other positives you might find in it.

If the thought of this conversation doesn't spark joy, I'm willing to spend this planmaking period working on it as a protoplan, to be (hopefully) implemented during Vel's next update.
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I'm not clear on what scene you're referencing...are you proposing to get you, Akane, and Ino in a room and have them talk Hazō out of caring so much about Akane? That sounds miserable to write, and also like something that Hazō wouldn't be willing to do.
 
eaglejarl said:
I'm not clear on what scene you're referencing...are you proposing to get you, Akane, and Ino in a room and have them talk Hazō out of caring so much about Akane? That sounds miserable to write, and also like something that Hazō wouldn't be willing to do.
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Velorien said:
"I know," Ami said. "Akane has so much faith in you it's frankly unhealthy, and you should be doing something about it before she ends up like Kei."
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I'm referencing this part, and asserting that Hazou's realized that he and Akane are headed towards an unhealthy romantic relationship that mirrors Kei and Ami's familial relationship (blind trust and almost conscious blindness on Akane's part, leaning on another for their sense of morality on Hazou's that grows into a "I can sell me soul, as long as she keeps hers").[*]

It's my opinion that, perhaps, they should sit down and discuss their unhealthy coping mechanisms in an attempt to prevent that possible future from ever happening. After all, Akane's original concern (and the one she asked for support with when she and Hazou resumed dating) was to keep from getting subsumed by Hazou's ideals and ambitions. She wanted to remain her own person.

However, Hazou is also a 15 year old boy, placed under an immense amount of stress that should've broken his mind a thousand times over. If Hazou-pilot retreats into unhealthy codependency and refuses to dwell on the similarities between he and Akane, and Ami and Kei... that's realistic.

He's a teenage boy with a single mom, for most of his memory Hazou has suffered from financial insecurity and worried about his mother's survival on a regular basis (who knows what sort of attachment issues that might've caused), ended up getting in trouble with the Yakuza to put food on the table at Academy-Age, constantly worried about the Kurosawa Clan's machinations, then his sense of safety was betrayed when the Swamp didn't work out, then he spent 2 years on a constant mission, he's been playing family therapist for his found family (including Mari, a 20-mumble woman) for 2+ years... and that's not even counting everything that's happened since they joined Leaf.

[*]In my opinion, Kei's advice to Akane post-Haru was what exacerbated Akane's trust in Hazou to unhealthy levels. She was furious with Hazou's lack of compassion and betrayal of Uplift, and Kei (perhaps unconsciously) turned it back onto Akane and made it a guilt thing. "Of course he's sociopathic, he just absorbed another of the Sage's Seals. He's having Out Moments again. You're telling me you didn't notice? You're his girlfriend, his partner, his teammate, and you're supposed to be his moral center, and you didn't notice that Hazou's having Out Moments again?" Hazou even notices this changed behavior, and has mixed feelings about it, saying that Akane "had been sticking closer to him than ever before."

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Edit: All of this is to say that, if my understanding of things is correct, I'd like to try to work on these issues before they grow insurmountable (though I'd be willing to wait until a Vel chapter if you'd much rather not be the one to engage with it). The above is intended to be a possible narrative handwave y'all could use if neither you, nor Velorien would find joy in pursuing such a thread.
 
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I've posited that Akane in Hazou's mind is The Sun, keeping his world warm and habitable for the soft and fuzzy things, and who's absence would leave the world noticeably colder.

He does not trust himself to keep his world warm, knowing that ice will creep in under his watch, so he trusts her with it. A position that comes with distance, with idolization, with admiration.

Which we all know to be the emotion furthest from understanding. Remind him of her flaws, of the rusted earth in her core, of the heart, human and imperfect that drives her. Tear off the filter, throw away the Halo.

Do not let a reason I was against romantic relationships for Hazou come to pass.
 
Gev said:
Not in peak probability faculties right now, but seems weird to not have some numbers not appear at all. Six of them, on d20s, for 30 throws, is ((20-6)/20)^30=2E-7 probability, or one in 4.5 million tries.
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No the distribution's pretty normal, maybe slightly more bunched than average, but not particularly notably.

((20-6)/20)^30 is ~2e-5, or 1 in ~44k, not 4.5m, and that's the probability that that particular set of 6 values would all be zero. There are (20 choose 6) ways to do that, or ~39k, so it's actually pretty likely to happen.
 
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RandomOTP said:
The above is intended to be a possible narrative handwave y'all could use if neither you, nor Velorien would find joy in pursuing such a thread.
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Thank you for clarifying what you were looking for. I desperately do not want to write that scene; you're welcome to vote it in on one of my updates but it will almost certainly get offscreened -- which isn't a bad thing if you want to make sure it happened and what the outcome was but you don't care too much about the details.
 
Eisenhelm said:
this, curiously enough, does not worry me; Hazou is a person who values cooperation and Rock broke any possibilities of cooperation when they started leveling towns. it's understandable that he would be pissed.
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I must point out Leaf is doing the exact same thing, and Cloud did the exact same thing for the brief time they were involved in the war. It's kinda how war were and are fought here.
EDIT: One of our plans was to literally cut water access to the majority of the Earth country.
 
Veedrac said:
No the distribution's pretty normal, maybe slightly more bunched than average, but not particularly notably.

((20-6)/20)^30 is ~2e-5, or 1 in ~44k, not 4.5m, and that's the probability that that particular set of 6 values would all be zero. There are (20 choose 6) ways to do that, or ~39k, so it's actually pretty likely to happen.
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Argh, knew I should not have done stats in that state. Not only forgot the combinations and miscalculated, but also miscounted. It's 7 numbers not appearing, which means about 1:5 odds.

Funnily, if you take the missing numbers, convert to letters by their position on the English alphabet, it can only make the word "optimal".

What's the chance of those numbers making a word? Somewhere between 0.2 and 2.4E-6, I'm not up for the full calculation.
 
Gev said:
it can only make the word "optimal".
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Are you sure it doesn't make the phrase "loam pit"? You were trying to get information on where the Scroll is and that area is reasonably fertile...

Alternatively, it could have been "Pa, I molt", expressing both Jashin's sense of relationship to Hazō and sharing a personal fact as a way of establishing rapport.
 
eaglejarl said:
Are you sure it doesn't make the phrase "loam pit"? You were trying to get information on where the Scroll is and that area is reasonably fertile...

Alternatively, it could have been "Pa, I molt", expressing both Jashin's sense of relationship to Hazō and sharing a personal fact as a way of establishing rapport.
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Might be "mail pot", as Jashin is just shelving Hazō's prayer in the "for later" pot because there are so many higher in the waiting list
 
eaglejarl said:
Are you sure it doesn't make the phrase "loam pit"? You were trying to get information on where the Scroll is and that area is reasonably fertile...

Alternatively, it could have been "Pa, I molt", expressing both Jashin's sense of relationship to Hazō and sharing a personal fact as a way of establishing rapport.
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I meant as a single word that uses all letters.

If I was considering multiple words, my first choice would be "mal tipo", "bad dude" in Spanish. That being Jashin's edgy nickname that he gave himself during his goth phase, of course.
 
I'd be curious if the Iron Nerve influences Hazou's dice rolling style to naturally cause clusters (e.g. by default, he rolls similarly each time, even when not actively using the Iron Nerve). The angle he's rolling form, size of the map, weight of the dice, evenness of the dice faces, etc. would also potentally influence the likelihood of physical clustering.

It may be worth doing some other tests without praying to Jashin to test if he just causes physical dice clusters on a regular basis.
 
Salaris said:
I'd be curious if the Iron Nerve influences Hazou's dice rolling style to naturally cause clusters (e.g. by default, he rolls similarly each time, even when not actively using the Iron Nerve). The angle he's rolling form, size of the map, weight of the dice, evenness of the dice faces, etc. would also potentally influence the likelihood of physical clustering.

It may be worth doing some other tests without praying to Jashin to test if he just causes physical dice clusters on a regular basis.
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I thought the same things but it would be very hard to test for without implicating other people:
- He rolled many many dice in his misspent youth, re: getting in trouble with the yakuza - presumably he has many patterns already and would have noticed the clustering.
- if Jashin played a part, then Jashin played a part when he didn't pray, i.e. when he played against Hidan.
 
[X] Action Plan: Summoning system
Word count: 215
  • Prep work: check with Asuma if he is willing to fund short term contract for Hazou
  • Sanity check with Mari
  • Cannai:
    • Bring Cannai gifts of luxury items from human path and other clans
      • Should include:
        • Honey wine
        • Meats from the human path
        • Foods/treats that the Inuzuka give their dogs
        • Any meats that other 7th path clans sell
        • Toys that the Inuzuka give their dogs (specify these would be for pups, we don't want to insult Cannai)
        • Beads or flowers or textiles from the human path or other clans, to wear in their fur as accessories (kill all chakra flowers before gifting)
        • Dognip, the dog version of catnip (meta suggestion. In character, ask the Inuzuka for ideas)
        • Socially accepted drugs from other paths
      • Ask which gifts he likes and which ones other dogs may like, for getting more contracts
    • Inform him about the mission to obtain the Otter Scroll
    • Also we would like to try to obtain a short term contract with a tracker for this mission if he has suggestions
      • Our pack leader on the human path is willing to help convince whomever Cannai recommends
    • Stress how important it is to obtain more allies for DRAGONWAR
  • Noburi:
    • Have him begin negotiations to find a toad that would be willing to head to dog territory
    • Inform them that Asuma is willing to help pay for it
    • possibly work with Ma, Pa or Gamabunta to find someone since they like human path luxuries
  • Clan meeting:
    • If possible we want to do everything we can to increase the odds of Akane getting assigned the Otter Scroll
    • Mari will this have any political fallout?
      • If no we would like for Akane to train with Hazou SC and Snowflake instances to increase training speed
    • What other suggestions could increase her odd?
 
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