[X] Action Plan: Summoning system

Cannai:
  • Bring Cannai gifts of luxury items from human path and other clans
    • Should include:
      • Honey wine
      • (TBA please offer suggestions)
Suggestions:
  • Meats from the human path
  • Foods/treats that the Inuzuka give their dogs
  • Any meats that other 7th path clans sell
  • Toys that the Inuzuka give their dogs (specify these would be for pups, we don't want to insult Cannai)
  • Beads or flowers or textiles from the human path or other clans, to wear in their fur as accessories (kill all chakra flowers before gifting)
  • Dognip, the dog version of catnip (meta suggestion. In character, ask the Inuzuka for ideas)
  • Socially accepted drugs from other paths (alcohol from human path, etc)

Can someone remind me whether the Ruri conversation is going to happen regardless of whether we vote for it to be onscreen, or do we have to vote it in again for it to happen at all? Because it needs to happen, whether it's onscreen or off.

Edit:
I know we voted in to ask Cannai whether Noburi could send a toad to Dog, and Asuma said he would help, but I don't think that update actually specifically mentioned Cannai approving. Should we ask the QMs whether we checked with Cannai? It would be really annoying to get yelled at for another miscommunication.

Edit 2:
Here's the quote:
Noburi is going to ask around the Toad Clan, but he is not optimistic that any toad would be interested in undertaking the epic journey to Dog without a compelling reason.
It just seems really vague on whether we actually asked, but I might just be being paranoid because of the last time we thought we had asked Cannai if we could set up an embassy.
 
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I know we voted in to ask Cannai whether Noburi could send a toad to Dog, and Asuma said he would help, but I don't think that update actually specifically mentioned Cannai approving. Should we ask the QMs whether we checked with Cannai? It would be really annoying to get yelled at for another miscommunication.
Should be since the plan specified asking everyone for permission
 
(Doubletalk for Kei's deniability) Kei, are you okay with us telling Ruri about the pangolin trap so the condor rebels don't attack the "diplomatic" mission?
Conjura may not be attending in person but my impression was that Pantsaa has been using the polite fiction of "Oh Conjura is totally still the Condor Boss but has elected to send Condone in her stead", meaning that officially Condor Territory still exists and is part of the Conclave thus the mission is technically illegal ?
@eaglejarl @Velorien How goes the discussion on this?
 
:O

I was expecting to see us roll some dice, and we'd find patterns in nothingness, and that would be it. I think my priors were like 2:1 jashin doesn't exist to does? But after seeing these numbers (plus Papperclipped's analysis) I'm convinced. Something is there. Whether it's EJ or Jashin, who knows, but _something_ is there, no question.

(side note - paperclipped forgot to multiply by 20 because there are 20 grid locations that might be singled out. It throws things wayyy off :p)

Especially if we later find the otter scroll right where it says (or if we discover that the scroll was moving, and it passed through that area when Hazou was experimenting, or something like that). Even if the p-value from papperclipped's analysis was .5 instead of 10^-7, being the right square immediately gives us a .05 for this experiment overall.

... What do we do with this information? So, an actively participating god is real. Seems like a high priority would be to understand what this god wants, and if/how it can be accomplished (or how it can align with what we want). If our goals are incompatible, we should run & hide as far as we can. Are there other gods that can protect us if needed? How powerful is this god really? Can this god actually help us with necromancy? Can this god end the war (or make it worse)? Can they fix the great seal? Are they above or below the sage? I mean, this seems pretty important to follow up on, now that we got this result. I'd say there's at least a 10% chance that there's some kind of circle of gods we need to start thinking about politically, and until we get strong evidence that gods are not all-powerful, we should act as if they are (it's much safer that way).

(unless the latter was dead, which was still a win because it meant the position was open)…

XD XD XD

Yes! High priest Hazou! (not a serious suggestion, but since we know have reason to believe Jashin is real now...)

So Hazou realizes that Ami was right when she warned him that his relationship with Akane was becoming similar to her relationship with Kei. Hazou-pilot recognizes the unhealthiness of this near-worship. We should act quickly to address this (maybe with Ino moderating, since even she thought their dynamic was a little concerning?) before it grows out of hand.

Not sure this is even an issue. I've read things saying that idealizing a partner beyond what they really are, especially early in a relationship, is associated with longer-lasting and healthier relationships. (A quick google search shows that this is more ambiguous than I thought, some things say good and some bad). Over-dependence is definitely an issue, but thinking someone's better than they are probably isn't a problem on its own.
 
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Can someone remind me whether the Ruri conversation is going to happen regardless of whether we vote for it to be onscreen, or do we have to vote it in again for it to happen at all? Because it needs to happen, whether it's onscreen or off.

I believe we need to explicitly vote it in, though on scene or off is flexible depending on how flushed out it is. I'll vote for a plan IFF it addresses Ruri before too much time has passed.
 
Omake: The Hokage, the Murder God, and Hazō
... What do we do with this information? So, an actively participating god is real. Seems like a high priority would be to understand what this god wants, and if/how it can be accomplished (or how it can align with what we want). If our goals are incompatible, we should run & hide as far as we can. Are there other gods that can protect us if needed? How powerful is this god really? Can this god actually help us with necromancy? Can this god end the war (or make it worse)? Can they fix the great seal? Are they above or below the sage? I mean, this seems pretty important to follow up on, now that we got this result. I'd say there's at least a 10% chance that there's some kind of circle of gods we need to start thinking about politically, and until we get strong evidence that gods are not all-powerful, we should act as if they are (it's much safer that way).

Asuma: "Ah, Hazou, what brings your headache-inducing ass into my office today?"
Hazou: "Good news and bad news boss man."
Asuma: *Sighs* "Good news first since you rarely bring it."
Hazou: "A god is real and I have reason to believe he likes me."
Asuma: "Well I can't say I'm really surprised you're hearing voices given the current situation(s) but congrats you now get to spend more time with Ino as she scrubs the bad thoughts away."
Hazou: "That would be nice but no I came here with proof."
Asuma: "...Assuming that I believe your proof... What's the bad news?"
Hazou: "He's a god of murder, blood sacrifice, and suffering that probably likes me since I have ideas that could technically unleash an age of destruction and misery undreamed of even by the sage himself."
Asuma: "As your Hokage I forbid you from founding another cult, sincere or otherwise."
Hazou: *Pauses in putting on Jashin high priest regalia* "But this is (probably) strictly optimal to achieving my our goals!"
 
@eaglejarl @Velorien Quick question:

The rules say:
Rules Doc said:

The Calligraphy Check

[...]
Using the Hurrying / Being Careful rules, Hazō can move down the time ladder 1 level, to 10 minutes. Doing so will net him a +(Aspect Bonus) on his roll. Going slower that that does not add sufficient extra advantage to be worth a bonus.
and...
Rules Doc said:

The Infusion Check

The base time to infuse a seal is 30 seconds. Using the Hurrying/Being Careful rules, you may move up to 3 levels up or 2 levels down the time ladder. AB penalties for moving up (doing it faster) are tripled. AB bonuses for moving down (doing it slower) are as usual.
Can Hazou move up and down the time ladder while doing sealing research? Or is it assumed that all rolls in sealing research are automatically as slow as can be?
 
[X] Action Plan: In Pursuit of Uncaps for Resolve, Socials, and Calligraphy
Word Count: 298
  • Check with Mari.
  • Kumokogo.
    • Explain the skyslicer plan.
      • In short, fly Dragons into immovable wire/silk to shred them.
      • Far from GS – for oath-compatibility and seal/jutsu functionality.
    • Ask permission to train Hornets in relevant flight maneuvers
    • To better model that, observe the Dragons. (Resolve uncap attempt)
      • Only get close alone since Summons can't reverse summon safely, but take along any Arachnids or Dogs that are willing to watch from afar. Emphasize the dangers.
      • Do as much as you can to describe them and their flight patterns.
        • Write down descriptions.
        • Draw images.
      • Pay attention to their mental attack. How can you resist it?
        • Akane?
        • Ino?
        • Other members of Team Uplift?
        • The idea of Uplift itself?
        • Clan Gouketsu?
        • Cannai?
        • Hana?
      • Unsummon once physically or psychically dangerous.
  • Recruiting a tracker:
    • (offscreen, maybe?) Explain the parameters of the Otter Scroll mission to Cannai. Does he know any trackers skilled enough to help find the scroll? Ask him to connect us.
    • To Cannai's candidate (if any), bring a no-strings-attached gift: those things which Dogs in the trade network have found the most valuable.
    • Explain our mission in dramatic style: (Socials uncap attempt)
      • Does the tracker want to find an ancient treasure lost before modern memory?
      • Do they want to alter the fate of another summon clan?
      • Do they want to help end the threat of the Dragons? (if Dogs know about them – ask Cannai)
  • Training Harumitsu:
    • Demonstrate Hazou's research process to Harumitsu, with Kagome's safety precautions. (Calligraphy/Sealing uncap attempt)
    • Sealing Project: Air Tunneling.
      • Hazou knows that air slows him when he sprints.
      • Idea: Tunneler's Friend that stores faster, so air doesn't slow a falling object.
    • Sanity check with Kagome.
    • Rolls:
      • Use maximum amount of prep days for bonus.
      • Only scribe/infuse once Consequences expire.
  • (offscreen) Misc.
    • Remake GS replica once healed.




This plan has a new Dragons scene to try to get a Resolve uncap (which is the most immediate thing for Hazou), a Calligraphy uncap (which is next), and also socials because why not (though I mostly want the tracker for the Scroll Hunt). I recycled the tracker scene from my plan last Sunday, and the seal research scene from the Sunday before that.
 
To better model that, observe the Dragons. (Resolve uncap attempt)
  • Only get close alone since Summons can't reverse summon safely, but take along any Arachnids or Dogs that are willing to watch from afar. Emphasize the dangers.

IIRC, Kumokugo will not allow just anyone to see the seal; that's why we had to become her "husband" in the first place and why all of our escorts have to be blinded before they fly and die as distractions.
 
Vel on Discord said:
Note that the map is of the EN (Hazō didn't think the scroll would be on the eastern continent).
Updating on that info, the map (Blue = grid number, Red= number of times that number was rolled) might look something like this:

As a slightly more thorough sniff test:

The highlighted region, roughly, is what I think could reasonably be described as Wind's "northern border". The highlighted region is 435x610 pixels, out of an image of 1757x2100 pixels. That means it takes up roughly 0.075 of the image.

Probability of flipping a coin with p(heads) = 0.075 and getting heads 12 or more times:
\[ \sum_{x=12}^{30} {30 \choose x} (0.075)^x (1 - 0.075)^{30-x} = 0.000000757 \]

Obviously, each roll of the dice is not uniformly distributed across the whole map, much less independent. We could try to build a better model of what the actual numbers would be, but it's clearly pretty damn significant already.
Update on this, I didn't see that Hazou's map was limited to the EN. I cropped the map down to this size:
The size of this image is 1383x1336 pixels, so the highlighted region is taking up ~14% of the image. Redoing the (rough, extremely incorrect) calculation:
Probability of flipping a coin with p(heads) = 0.14 and getting heads 12 or more times:
\[ \sum_{x=12}^{30} {30 \choose x} (0.14)^x (1 - 0.14)^{30-x}= 0.000415 \]
(side note - paperclipped forgot to multiply by 20 because there are 20 grid locations that might be singled out. It throws things wayyy off :p)

Especially if we later find the otter scroll right where it says (or if we discover that the scroll was moving, and it passed through that area when Hazou was experimenting, or something like that). Even if the p-value from papperclipped's analysis was .5 instead of 10^-7, being the right square immediately gives us a .05 for this experiment overall.
This is fair. In this case, the highlighted region is roughly 1/7th the image, so we can multiply by 7? Alternately, we could multiply by (# axis-aligned borders on major nations), or some other reasonable way to describe big geography features in the EN. I would claim that it's substantially more significant for being in an area where we would strongly expect it to be.
 
IIRC, Kumokugo will not allow just anyone to see the seal; that's why we had to become her "husband" in the first place and why all of our escorts have to be blinded before they fly and die as distractions.
I'm well aware. First, we aren't even necessarily going near the butte. Even if we were to go near the butte, unless we were accompanied by a flier, they would need to summit the butte to view the GS, which they wouldn't do because we probably won't have a full escort with sacrifices, and would instead be viewing the farthest out Dragon from as far as summon-ly possible.
"Your apology accepted is," Kumokōgō said, scuttling back. "There is no second." She arranged her limbs. "Yes, is impossible. Oath sworn is specific. 'Your Clan shall guard the Great Seal forever, looking not upon it nor allowing any other to look upon it. You shall not go atop the butte, nor shall you allow any other to go atop the butte. In no way shall you interact with the Seal nor allow any other to interact with it. Only one exception will I allow: Your ruler may summit the butte and gaze upon the Seal in order to ensure that nothing and no one has crept through your nets, although still they must not interact with the Seal nor touch it save in the direst event to protect it. Thus I charge you until the end of days.' Very specific oath is. No room for shaking."
 
I'm well aware. First, we aren't even necessarily going near the butte. Even if we were to go near the butte, unless we were accompanied by a flier, they would need to summit the butte to view the GS, which they wouldn't do because we probably won't have a full escort with sacrifices, and would instead be viewing the farthest out Dragon from as far as summon-ly possible.

The wording is strictly technically correct, but I am concerned that Hazou-pilot could be liable to make a mistake without an addendum to ensure that he does not accidentally usurp Kumokogo's authority like he did with Cannai. There's no intent in the plan to circumvent her authority but I would rather err on the side of caution when it comes to interacting with summon bosses.

I'd change this:
but take along any Arachnids or Dogs that are willing to watch from afar.
To this:
but take along any Arachnids or Dogs that are willing to watch from afar, Kumokogo approving.

So we stay at 300 words exactly.

EDIT: If we really need to be under 300

Only get close alone

Can instead be

 
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@Paperclipped any way that I could get you to consider either having a scene where Noburi tracks down someone to head to dog territory or how and if we can optimize for Akane getting the Otter scroll instead of the Harumitsu scene? Both of those are time sensitive if we want to optimize for the scroll hunt.

Also if we are going to do seal research could we not just work on our own projects instead of adding something new to the stack?
 
[X] Action Plan: In Pursuit of Uncaps for Resolve, Socials, and Calligraphy
 
@Paperclipped any way that I could get you to consider either having a scene where Noburi tracks down someone to head to dog territory or how and if we can optimize for Akane getting the Otter scroll instead of the Harumitsu scene? Both of those are time sensitive if we want to optimize for the scroll hunt.

Also if we are going to do seal research could we not just work on our own projects instead of adding something new to the stack?
The Air Tunnel seal has been discussed a lot the past few days in the Discord (mostly by me). Long story short, the math works out that it's reasonable to make a seal that will continuously seal the air below a dropped projectile. Without air, there's no air resistance, and suddenly we have Rods of God that can harm Hidden Rock.
 
@Paperclipped any way that I could get you to consider either having a scene where Noburi tracks down someone to head to dog territory or how and if we can optimize for Akane getting the Otter scroll instead of the Harumitsu scene? Both of those are time sensitive if we want to optimize for the scroll hunt.
I could squeeze in an offscreen thing for Noburi if you could find some spare word count. I suspect directly optimizing Akane for Otter Scroll will not work -- Asuma was unwilling to take Akane off the mission rotation for Skyslider training, so she wouldn't get time for Summoning training until after the war, and most other measures we could take seem like they could be coercive. Tbh our best shot is to win a Contest 2, if that ends up happening.

Or to give it up, wait a lil', do some human sacrifices, then hunt down the Squirrel Scroll with the same method.

The Air Tunnel seal has been discussed a lot the past few days in the Discord (mostly by me). Long story short, the math works out that it's reasonable to make a seal that will continuously seal the air below a dropped projectile. Without air, there's no air resistance, and suddenly we have Rods of God that can harm Hidden Rock.
Could you write up the math on these by the way? I haven't gone through it myself.
 
Recruiting a tracker:
  • (offscreen, maybe?) Explain the parameters of the Otter Scroll mission to Cannai. Does he know any trackers skilled enough to help find the scroll? Ask him to connect us.
  • To Cannai's candidate (if any), bring a no-strings-attached gift: those things which Dogs in the trade network have found the most valuable.
  • Explain our mission in dramatic style: (Socials uncap attempt)
    • Does the tracker want to find an ancient treasure lost before modern memory?
    • Do they want to alter the fate of another summon clan?
    • Do they want to help end the threat of the Dragons? (if Dogs know about them – ask Cannai)
Are we assuming that Hazou will be acting as the tracker for the Otter Scroll mission? I haven't checked but this may end up being pointless since Hazou may not go.
 
I have lots of thoughts on the Jashin thing. First, a plan-blurb that I hope someone steals & incorporates. Then, all the thoughts that lead me to this plan.

[ ] Plan blurb: Jashin Science!
  • Check for obvious issues like a sloped table (put water on it to verify), throw dice at random and see if Hazou's throws naturally cluster
  • Try to commune with Jashin via dice rolls, to learn how to communicate better
    • Do the same setup as maps, but with 6 numbered boxes, and inside them the words
      • "Limited resources for communicating"
      • "you're a wimp Hazuo"
      • "Communication is boring"
      • an empty box,
      • "I must stay hidden"
      • "There's a much easier way to do this"
    • Roll 6 sided die over the boxes. I'd want to see the numbers & locations for all the die.
    • Perform this experiment inside a building near where lots of ninja pass by, so it would be easy to be interrupted. If you're interrupted, keep note of EXACTLY how and what happens.
    • If events conspire three times to prevent the experiment from taking place, ABORT ALL INVESTIGATION AND NEVER TALK ABOUT IT AGAIN.
  • Ask a priest from another religion to see where their gods say the otter scroll is

Jashin thoughts.
Tl;DR: We don't actually know what Jashin is or what it wants. Might be important, we should try to figure out.

All we know is that something caused the dice to do what they did in multiple places, and it wasn't Hazou. We shall provisionally name this thing (a tilted table, a god, EJ, Jirya-who-never-actually-died playing a prank, whatever it is) 'Jashin'. 'Jashin' may have various amounts of power (can only affect dice rolls at particular times in particular ways -> ??? -> can affect any probabilistic event -> source of things shifting OUT) and various levels of motivation (a table has no goals -> pranking jirya -> EJ -> a god has strong goals). For now, we'll ignore weak unmotivated 'Jashin' like the table or Jirya, since they aren't really dangerous. The most important scenario to deal with is a highly powerful, highly motivated 'Jashin'.

Since the world isn't full of blood and gore (right?), more likely scenarios are
1) 'Jashin's whos goals are pretty well satisfied with the world as it is & just want tweaking (example: 'Jashin' = EJ),
2) weak, motivated, blood&gore 'jashin's,
3) strong, ambivalent, blood&gore 'jashin's.
  • Hazou isn't quite positive enough to bring this up with others. Don't tell family or Asuma yet (update should be less than 1 day, if we get strong confirmation we need to tell Asuma or we get killboxed.)
  • Communication is the first priority. Hazou wants to make it painless for 'Jashin' to provide more information. There must be some reason it hasn't been telling everyone what to do willy-nilly, so there must be some cost to communication. We don't want to be annoying to a potentially-powerful 'Jashin'.
    • Don't repeat experiments blindly.
    • Don't ask too many questions - prioritize carefully until/unless communication opens up.
    • Gods in the stories like to break your expectations - we've already seen this from the dice locations. We need to provide ways for Jashin to communicate in a way that we didn't expect (which is tricky... If we're providing the medium, we expected communication along that medium, right? By trying to communicate, we might prevent communication.)
    • I'm thinking of 2 ways to improve communication:
      • Bootstrap: use dice rolls to learn how to communicate better
        • Do the same setup as maps, but with 6 numbered boxes, and inside them the words
          • "Limited resources for communicating"
          • "you're a wimp Hazuo"
          • "Communication is boring"
          • an empty box,
          • "I must stay hidden"
          • "There's a much easier way to do this"
          [*]Roll 6 sided die over the boxes. I'd want to see the numbers & locations for all the die.
          [*]Perform this experiment inside a building near where lots of ninja pass by, so it would be easy to be interrupted. If you're interrupted, keep note of EXACTLY how and what happens.
          [*]If events conspire three times to prevent the experiment from taking place, ABORT ALL INVESTIGATION AND NEVER TALK ABOUT IT AGAIN.
      • Explore: Try to find another more-direct communication method
        • Let's try trance style. Meditate for a day on killing rock ninja, sacrifice a chakra beast in Jashin's name, throw in some dehydration and breathing exercises... I think thread is against psychoactive drugs... Ino can probably do something to help? Goal is to be in a trance, so anything we see might be completely made up from our own mind.
          [*]Questions we want to ask if this works:
          • What can we do to make communication easier and more desirable for you?
            • (meta: If EJ is jashin, may I suggest that Jashin has an injunction from a super-god or agreement with other gods to keep his existence ambiguous to the point of uncertainty, and thus the best way to make communication easy is to give him as much plausible deniability as possible? Which means, to the rest of the world, Hazou has to pull these ideas out of thin air.)
          • What would you like us to do, today, this month, this year, this century? What outcomes are you hoping for by these actions?
            • Hazou will make no statement about whether he plans to do or not do anything. Setup a dead-man's switch in case of coercion. A letter to Asuma that Hazuo needs to stop from being sent should do nicely.
          • What do the other followers of Jashin have right, and what are they missing?
          • What do you know about the other "gods" (who pale in comparison to your might o holy one)?
          • (Something hazou is interested in but won't ask directly. Maybe ask another 'god'?) How powerful are you / is Jashin really? If super powerful, why do you/does he need us?
          [*]
  • How to check if/what Jashin is
    • If
      • Ask a priest from another religion to see where their gods say the otter scroll is
        • DON'T say what 'Jashin' said, or it invalidates the experiment.
          [*]DANGEROUS - may incur wrath of gods.
          [*]BENEFIT - checks for existence of other gods at the same time
    • What
      • Try asking a dice-question while meditating on different things. An answer => jashin likes that thing
      • Right now, we have seen Jashin's hand during
        • uplift thoughts & trying to save villagers
          • killing-rock-ninja thoughts
          • Saving Hidan from Oro
        [*]What other kinds of scenarios might let Jashin act?
        • NATURE god: meditating on chakra beasts
          • CHAOS god: meditating on a storm, some sealing failures
          • MIND god: meditating on Kagome's musings (lumpachanzen, sky squid, the OUT, ...)
          • UPLIFT god: probably not gonna succeed, but worth checking. Maybe he's just a helpful god pointing us on our way.
      • Check for obvious issues like a sloped table (put water on it), throw dice at random and see if Hazou's throws naturally cluster
 
The Air Tunnel seal has been discussed a lot the past few days in the Discord (mostly by me). Long story short, the math works out that it's reasonable to make a seal that will continuously seal the air below a dropped projectile. Without air, there's no air resistance, and suddenly we have Rods of God that can harm Hidden Rock.
Ditto on wanting to see the math. Dropping things is rarely as effective as it seems, and air resistance is only critical to that if the dropped object is insufficiently dense and aerodynamic.

I'd expect a larger effect is that sealing the air in front of a projectile creates a suction force that would accelerate the projectile, and if it unsealed that air on the other side it could hit arbitrary speeds. There are other forms of bombardment I also think could be effective, but they're based on automated seal-powered reactionless propulsion, which the hivemind has pretty conclusively dismissed, even though it would totally be doable.
 
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