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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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An interesting tally so far.
Adhoc vote count started by MMKII on Sep 14, 2020 at 7:35 PM, finished with 86 posts and 18 votes.
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[X] Training Hazō: Shadow clones
[X] (Doggo) A ninjutsu-spec dog (element humans don't have)
[X] (Doggo) Ninjutsu-spec (buff specialist)
[X] (Doggo) A diplomat dog
 
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So is the dog vote for only one summon, which is determined by the winner, or are there multiple slots?
 
Since we have met the requirements for the scroll hunt which one do people want to go after first. We have solid intel on both the Kraken and the Otter scroll
 
GlassOlive said:
I would think that the diplomat dog would be probably pretty busy with the Dogs' own business. And what would we be expecting out of one? As far as I recall, the lack of skytowers and seals mean that the Pangolins have stopped advancing and, at worst, are consolidating if not outright retreating to make their advances holdable.

This isn't widely known to the Dogs for the same reason the Dogs haven't ever seen a Pangolin - the 7P information network is not great. And arguably, we're the ones that are going to need to forge relationships due to our 7P trade network idea.
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We've been told by the boss himself that the Pangolins are already advancing through Hyena territory on their way to the Dogs' borders. It's the whole reason why they wanted transportation technology in the first place.

At the very least we need to offer the option of peace talks to Cannai before we unilaterally rule it out ourselves. I would be very surprised if he did not want to explore all possible options before committing his people to war with a relatively unknown foreign power.
 
Regarding Shadow Clone SOPs:
There are currently two sets in motion, mine and Paperclipped's, shown below:
(note that mine are spread out over two posts as I remade the Akane SOP, while Paperclipped's are both described in one post)
Inferno Vulpix said:
[X] Shadow Clone SOP: Keiko Default
  • Daily:
    • 2 blocks of XP training
      • Upgrade to 3 blocks at Resolve 23, and 4 blocks at Resolve 24. Do not upgrade past then until additional chakra sources are sorted out.
Current resolve: 20
Current internal chakra: 270
Status of chakra refills: ambiguous

Max castable clones: 4 (150 + 100 = 250)
Max clone-hours: 6

[ ] Shadow Clone SOP: Akane Default
  • Daily:
    • 2 blocks of XP training
Current resolve: 21
Current internal chakra: 300
Status of chakra refills: ambiguous

Max castable clones: 5 (150 + 125 = 275)
Max clone-hours: 7

As per my main proposal on the matter, if we agree on this as a community this would be our expected plan for them unless something in the winning plan or update supersedes it. We can also then change it when their resolve grows.
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Inferno Vulpix said:
The point of having a SOP is so that we know what to do when there isn't anything else pressing for the clone-hours. If an action plan says to use one of our Shadow Clones to get the paperwork done, or to attend a meeting, or if one of those things happens in the update, then in the player-driven post-update XP calculation we just subtract that clone from the SOP.

You make an excellent point about Akane though, and I completely forgot that her clones should be decoding. Accordingly:
[X] Shadow Clone SOP: Akane Decoding
  • Daily:
    • 7 clone-hours (across 3 clones) decoding notes.
      • Upgrade with additional clone-hours as Resolve increases, up to Resolve 29 at which Akane is at the limits of her chakra and we cannot advance further until we sort that out.
Current resolve: 21
Current internal chakra: 300
Status of chakra refills: ambiguous

Max castable clones: 5 (150 + 125 = 275)
Max clone-hours: 7
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Paperclipped said:
[X] Training Keiko: Resolve
Resolve 23: 66 XP
Save 7 XP

This allows Keiko to maintain 4 SC training blocks per day instead of 3.

[X] Shadow Clone SOP: FOOM
  • Dedicate all clones to training Resolve.
  • Number of training blocks = 3 + (current Resolve - 20)/3
    • Add 1 training block at Resolve 40 and Resolve 80
    • Add 1 training block at SC 40, 50, ...
    • If SC >= 40, have as many clones do 3 training blocks as possible, and any overflow pop themselves once done training.
  • Spend FP to reroll -9/-12 on the dice.
  • If you take Consequences, lay off training proportionally.

[X] Shadow Clone SOP: Keiko FOOM
Follow FOOM plan as above.
Currently, Keiko is at Resolve 20. She will train for 3 training blocks (not hitting any chakra limit)
She will make a check with 26 vs. TN 29, and gain 1.3x XP

[X] Shadow Clone SOP: Akane FOOM
Follow FOOM plan as above.
Currently, Akane is at Resolve 20. She will train for 3 training blocks (not hitting any chakra limit)
She will make a check with 26 vs. TN 29, and gain 1.3x XP



[X] (Doggo) Ask Cannai if there are any tracking dogs that can find traces of blood on a summon scroll a hundred years old
[X] (Doggo) A stealth dog
[X] (Doggo) Ninjutsu-spec (buff specialist)

(copied here because Vote Tally with username votes is weird)
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The key differences, as I understand them:
  • I have Akane focus her shadow clones on decoding, while Paperclipped has Akane focus her clones on training Resolve.
  • I base my SC safety tolerances on being safe (full stress track) on a -9, while Paperclipped has a tolerance of -6 but also spends FP to reroll -9 or -12.
    • Edit: I have been persuaded by Paperclipped to change to -6 tolerance. The changes are visible on the direct post, not the quoted version.
  • I only extrapolate the SOP up until we hit the cap from our internal chakra reserves, whereas Paperclipped extrapolates indefinitely out.
  • Edit: I have also added a proviso to scale back usage on the day before a mission, to guarantee no Consequences taken on that day.
Reminder that the SOP is meant for us rather than the QMs, so we can coordinate our model of SC gains without having to worry about making assumptions about what people want to do. As such, if you have any interest in the specifics of how our shadow clones are allocated I urge you to read over the SOPs and vote for the ones you prefer.
 
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Inferno Vulpix said:
Regarding Shadow Clone SOPs:
There are currently two sets in motion, mine and Paperclipped's, shown below:
(note that mine are spread out over two posts as I remade the Akane SOP, while Paperclipped's are both described in one post)



The key differences, as I understand them:
  • I have Akane focus her shadow clones on decoding, while Paperclipped has Akane focus her clones on training Resolve.
  • I base my SC safety tolerances on being safe (full stress track) on a -9, while Paperclipped has a tolerance of -6 but also spends FP to reroll -9 or -12.
  • I only extrapolate the SOP up until we hit the cap from our internal chakra reserves, whereas Paperclipped extrapolates indefinitely out.
Reminder that the SOP is meant for us rather than the QMs, so we can coordinate our model of SC gains without having to worry about making assumptions about what people want to do. As such, if you have any interest in the specifics of how our shadow clones are allocated I urge you to read over the SOPs and vote for the ones you prefer.
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Suppose you can run X clones if you never take Consequences at -12.

Using probabilities from `output 4d{-1, 0, 1}` from anydice.
  • If you run X+1 clones, you take a Mild on -12, 1.23% of the time.
    • If your Resolve <60, taking a Mild gives you -3 or less, so you spend the next day with X-1 SC (so you cannot take Consequences). Resolve>=60 means you lose 2 clones. For now, assume Resolve<60
    • In expectation: (0.9877) * (X+1) + (0.0123) * (X-1) = X+0.9754
  • If you run X+2 clones, you take a Mild on -9/-12, 6.17% of the time.
    • Same cost as above.
    • In expectation: (0.9383) * (X+2) + (0.0617) * (X-1) = X+1.8149
  • If you run X+3 clones, you take a Mild on -6/-9 and a Medium on -12, 17.29% and 1.23% of the time respectively
    • The cost of getting a Medium is also -1 clone for now, but will soon be -2 clones (as soon as we hit Resolve 30). Multiplying the penalty by 7 because it'll stick around for 7 days.
    • In expectation (now): (0.8148) * (X+3) + (0.1729) * (X-1) + (7 * 0.0123) * (X-1) = X+2.1854
    • In expectation (soon): (0.8148) * (X+3) + (0.1729) * (X-1) + (7 * 0.0123) * (X-2) = X+2.0993
  • If you run X+4 clones, you take a Mild on -3/-6, a Medium on -9, and a Medium and a Mild on -12
    • Same analysis as above, mostly. On -12, you take -2/-3 clones soon.
    • In expectation (now): (0.6173) * (X+4) + (0.321) * (X-1) + (0.0494) * (X-1) + (0.0123) * (X-2) = X+2.0598
    • In expectation (soon): (0.6173) * (X+4) + (0.321) * (X-1) + (0.0494) * (X-2) + (0.0123) * (X-3) = X + 1.9981
Ignoring the rest.

In conclusion - my SOP might not be aggressive enough - it's optimal to go one clone more for now while the cost of Milding and Mediuming isn't that high. Additionally, with a one-more clone SOP, it would make sense to only reroll -12, saving us FP on net.
 
Paperclipped said:
Suppose you can run X clones if you never take Consequences at -12.

Using probabilities from `output 4d{-1, 0, 1}` from anydice.
  • If you run X+1 clones, you take a Mild on -12, 1.23% of the time.
    • If your Resolve <60, taking a Mild gives you -3 or less, so you spend the next day with X-1 SC (so you cannot take Consequences). Resolve>=60 means you lose 2 clones. For now, assume Resolve<60
    • In expectation: (0.9877) * (X+1) + (0.0123) * (X-1) = X+0.9754
  • If you run X+2 clones, you take a Mild on -9/-12, 6.17% of the time.
    • Same cost as above.
    • In expectation: (0.9383) * (X+2) + (0.0617) * (X-1) = X+1.8149
  • If you run X+3 clones, you take a Mild on -6/-9 and a Medium on -12, 17.29% and 1.23% of the time respectively
    • The cost of getting a Medium is also -1 clone for now, but will soon be -2 clones (as soon as we hit Resolve 30). Multiplying the penalty by 7 because it'll stick around for 7 days.
    • In expectation (now): (0.8148) * (X+3) + (0.1729) * (X-1) + (7 * 0.0123) * (X-1) = X+2.1854
    • In expectation (soon): (0.8148) * (X+3) + (0.1729) * (X-1) + (7 * 0.0123) * (X-2) = X+2.0993
  • If you run X+4 clones, you take a Mild on -3/-6, a Medium on -9, and a Medium and a Mild on -12
    • Same analysis as above, mostly. On -12, you take -2/-3 clones soon.
    • In expectation (now): (0.6173) * (X+4) + (0.321) * (X-1) + (0.0494) * (X-1) + (0.0123) * (X-2) = X+2.0598
    • In expectation (soon): (0.6173) * (X+4) + (0.321) * (X-1) + (0.0494) * (X-2) + (0.0123) * (X-3) = X + 1.9981
Ignoring the rest.

In conclusion - my SOP might not be aggressive enough - it's optimal to go one clone more for now while the cost of Milding and Mediuming isn't that high. Additionally, with a one-more clone SOP, it would make sense to only reroll -12, saving us FP on net.
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Those numbers change my mind on optimal arrangement of clones. I am concerned about the visible effects of having a significant headache one day every week (how X+3 sounds ilke it would work with a Mild 17% of the time) so in deference to secrecy I will instead run with X+2 with no rerolls, which should leave us with an acceptable two headaches a month while still costing no FP and providing more benefit than X+1.

I will also add in a proviso for scaling back by 1 from expected on the day before a mission so that we can be sure to not be running with a Mild up.
 
Hey, before we figure out what to do about the other stuff, could we swing back around on the whole giant red warning signs thing?

I mean, it wouldn't be the end of the world if she joined Hyuuga and made them the critical link to an immensely wealthy and naive strategic partner, because it's not as if we have any potential allies of our own who might be slightly miffed at that development, but it wouldn't be a good thing.

-and if it turns out that she has decided this whole endeavor was mistaken and she goes missing again while staying under the protection of the only clan with an (illegally seized) compound outside the city walls, well no big deal. We'll just have to burn some of our vast repository of accumulated trust and loyalty to write it off, but that's still not cheap.

-and while it would be a momentary inconvenience if she has decided that she doesn't want to live in a colorless world and would rather cross the bridge early? Well, the Hyuuga are nothing if not reasonable and they most definitely won't make a public issue of an immensely valuable bride eliminating herself from a very public courting challenge as soon as she made a less-than-ideal decision from the perspective of the Goeketsu she was in the custody of, much less take the chance to scream for blood.
 
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Just a reminder that Noburi has 455 XP sitting in the bank. We should probably spend it instead of wasting it
 
Kiba said:
And leave Nobby without basic skills?
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it cost 30 xp. He has 455. That's less than 7% of what we are wasting right now

[X] Training Noburi: Basics
Akimichi Chakra Enhancement Technique (30 XP)
Athletics 40 (190 XP)
Alertness 36 (201 XP)
Water Dragon Bullet 32 (31.5 XP)
??? 3 (2.5 XP)
save 0 XP
 
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