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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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eaglejarl said:
In the immortal but somewhat paraphrased words of the Dread Pirate Roberts: "You asked for it. :):):)"

EDIT: Doh. The whole point of me pulling up the site right now was to post the following:

PSA:

As you all know, @Velorien's Ami and Keiko are much better than mine. As such, he'll be writing everything from this plan that relates to the two of them while I bat cleanup with the Shino/Shikamaru fight for 3rd place.

Per the man himself:

"Talking down Keiko and planning for Ami is for tomorrow, though it might get delayed because [redacted]. The date [with Ami] itself is for Thursday."
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Then we die and BirdDuke died of heartbreak!

Seriously, the chūnin exam was hard enough. We were almost thrown out of the exam.
 
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Oneiros said:
I literally called the entirety of the 4th event. Y'all just did the stupidest decisions imaginable and even that wasn't enough to stop us
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It's still a costly mistake. A minor mistake wouldn't put us so deep in the hole.

Pray tell if you can prove you called the event and if you put any effort into averting this event. Even if that were the case, one person against consensus does not mean we were any good at planning.

In any case, we're certainly weren't perfect planners. Consistency in results matter.
 
MMKII said:
Theres a chunin exam at least once every six months, I think.
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I feel a bit concerned about the ramifications of this. Specifically, Jiraiya just spent approximately a full month or so away from Leaf immersed in negotiations with the other Kage, and after factoring in the break the negotiations took over two months. If the Chuunin Exams happen every six months and Kage obligations go roughly like this each time then Jiraiya (and the other Kages, for good measure) are each spending a full sixth of their time off negotiating with other Kages and a full third of their time with negotiations ongoing.

To be perfectly honest, I'm worried that spending so much of your time away from the village you lead is potentially unsimulationist, as is keeping the Chuunin Exams running half as often as not. There are a few things I can think of that could mitigate the concerns I see here:
  • Longer schedules. Annual exams halves the severity of all of those obligations and means the Chuunin Exams are offline much more than online, and wider timeframes would ease it even more.
  • Have it so that regular exams don't take as much time for Kage negotiations and this one's important enough for Jiraiya to be in Mist all the time.
  • Have it so that regular exams are much shorter in general. We know Mist was drawing this one out, but if a regular exam gets all its events knocked out in a week then the Kages really aren't stuck away from home too much.
There's a decent probability as I see it that you've already been using one of those and never said anything because nobody asked. It also looks like decent odds that you've structured your picture of Kage duties and activities around the Exams being a focal point for international relations in such a way that taking up a large chunk of their time is perfectly fine. I'm trying to cover my bases because I'd hate to find out down the road that this was a plothole all along.
 
Kiba said:
Even if that were the case, one person against consensus does not mean we were any good at planning.
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Reminder: Your personal opinion is not the consensus.


Inferno Vulpix said:
I feel a bit concerned about the ramifications of this. Specifically, Jiraiya just spent approximately a full month or so away from Leaf immersed in negotiations with the other Kage, and after factoring in the break the negotiations took over two months. If the Chuunin Exams happen every six months and Kage obligations go roughly like this each time then Jiraiya (and the other Kages, for good measure) are each spending a full sixth of their time off negotiating with other Kages and a full third of their time with negotiations ongoing.

To be perfectly honest, I'm worried that spending so much of your time away from the village you lead is potentially unsimulationist, as is keeping the Chuunin Exams running half as often as not. There are a few things I can think of that could mitigate the concerns I see here:
  • Longer schedules. Annual exams halves the severity of all of those obligations and means the Chuunin Exams are offline much more than online, and wider timeframes would ease it even more.
  • Have it so that regular exams don't take as much time for Kage negotiations and this one's important enough for Jiraiya to be in Mist all the time.
  • Have it so that regular exams are much shorter in general. We know Mist was drawing this one out, but if a regular exam gets all its events knocked out in a week then the Kages really aren't stuck away from home too much.
There's a decent probability as I see it that you've already been using one of those and never said anything because nobody asked. It also looks like decent odds that you've structured your picture of Kage duties and activities around the Exams being a focal point for international relations in such a way that taking up a large chunk of their time is perfectly fine. I'm trying to cover my bases because I'd hate to find out down the road that this was a plothole all along.
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It would make more sense if it was a yearly thing, for sure.
 
MMKII said:
Reminder: Your personal opinion is not the consensus.
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In my opinion, mistakes are more important than our wild success. Mistakes determine whether we die.

I am not very confident in our planning abilities because we made mistakes during the course of the exam and that we appeared to have no framework for learning from our mistakes other than our own memories.

I helped write a checklist to ensure we learn from our mistakes. Nobody uses it.

E: Well. I was wrong. Our QMs are reading our plans and our plans are shorter. But I am still not quite sure if we done all we can to learn from our mistakes.

E2: Have we slacked off on asking QMs to read our plans?
 
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Oneiros said:
I literally called the entirety of the 4th event. Y'all just did the stupidest decisions imaginable and even that wasn't enough to stop us
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Did you? I can't find that in your comment history. Closest I can find is this:

Oneiros said:
This exam is going to be a constant clusterfuck of henges popping. Teams getting disqualified left and right. Almost everyone will wind up getting negative points. We need to either hide out or come up with a plan to not lose everything

Edit: actually the safest thing to protect ourselves would be to steal another ninjas disguise. We could ambush them in the break room
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Which really doesn't feel like the way the event played out. I recall a big conversation about becoming a broken being powerful (which is what ISC ended up doing, except they could also get the entire list from a proctor via Ino), but don't remember where you stood on that.

(I don't mean this antagonistically, FWIW, I am curious what the prediction was and whether it matches how the event worked out in my view)

I don't think anyone predicted that we're going to get KOd :p
 
Kiba said:
In my opinion, mistakes are more important than our wild success. Mistakes determine whether we die.

I am not very confident in our planning abilities because we made mistakes during the course of the exam and that we appeared to have no framework for learning from our mistakes other than our own memories.
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I would object that #Mistakes/Time is a meaningful metric for determining quality of playerbase ideas. It takes away all nuance (namely in those scenarios: playing conservatively was a stupid idea, there is always at least one idiot, etc) and doesn't actually allow you to address root problems.

You're throwing away the lions share of the data in return for an extremely cheap statistic if thats the only thing you're looking at.
 
Anderkent said:
Did you? I can't find that in your comment history. Closest I can find is this:



Which really doesn't feel like the way the event played out. I recall a big conversation about becoming a broken being powerful (which is what ISC ended up doing, except they could also get the entire list from a proctor via Ino), but don't remember where you stood on that.

(I don't mean this antagonistically, FWIW, I am curious what the prediction was and whether it matches how the event worked out in my view)

I don't think anyone predicted that we're going to get KOd :p
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A lot of it was on discord but yeah I feel that prediction was correct. Ninjas started attacking each other from the moment the game started. In the end almost everyone ended with negative points. Basically my prediction was that by playing a conventional strategy we where guaranteed to lose. Which turned out accurately
 
MMKII said:
I would object that #Mistakes/Time is a meaningful metric for determining quality of playerbase ideas. It takes away all nuance (namely in those scenarios: playing conservatively was a stupid idea, there is always at least one idiot, etc) and doesn't actually allow you to address root problems.

You're throwing away the lions share of the datain return for an extremely cheap statistic if thats the only thing you're looking at.
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Mistakes are the most instructive things to learn, especially if it leads to us almost losing or losing. I do not particularly care about quantity. I care if we learn from our mistakes.

We learned well enough that we made a map for the fourth event. Map for the fifth event, too. It greatly aid in understanding.

But we're reliant on players' memories. Reliant on remembering to do certain things. We don't rely on checklist and SOPs.
 
Hm. The winning plan is intriguingly low on detail for how to persuade Keiko to come back. Normally, this would be annoying, but this time the possibilities...
 
Kiba said:
Mistakes are the most instructive things to learn, especially if it leads to us almost losing or losing. I do not particularly care about quantity.
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That's simply not true though.

You can look at a success and say "What was the cog in this idea that really made things work? Can we emulate this in some fashion later?" to improve your overall practices for (Whatever the fuck it is you do).
 
firestorm440 said:
J did say "any means necessary", didn't he?
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Unless I'm missing something, no.

Roomba said:
Getting Keiko to come back
  • She's not angry at Noburi. Let him take point on this.
  • If he thinks he'll have better luck on his own, leave him to it.
  • Definitely do not do anything suggesting you'd physically stop her from going back to the Seventh Path.
  • Don't lean too heavily on Jiraiya's authority. It runs the risk of putting her into her "I am a tool that must obey" mindset.
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Velorien said:
Unless I'm missing something, no.
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Annoying pedantry: It does say suggesting and heavily there, so this doesn't necessarily preclude the usage of physical force (only bans suggestive gestures/words that imply we would use it) or using Jiraiya's authority (just don't harp on it after you've informed her of the J man's orders, for example) .
 
Velorien said:
Hm. The winning plan is intriguingly low on detail for how to persuade Keiko to come back. Normally, this would be annoying, but this time the possibilities...
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Oh no, how embarassing, to have forgotten to address such an important concern in a plan! Now you'll be able to write whatever you want there! To have given the Evil QM carte blanche on such an important development, I fully expect to need to start designing a new character for the next update! Woe is me!

Now, about that Soulstealer bloodline...
 
MMKII said:
That's simply not true though.

You can look at a success and say "What was the cog in this idea that really made things work? Can we emulate this in some fashion later?" to improve your overall practices for (Whatever the fuck it is you do).
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OK, but if we had the idea and implemented it, chance are, we already know it. We might be able to extract useful information from a team that implemented strategies we never thought to use, especially if the delta of success is already large.

In any case, our "wild ideas" are already normal habits. Mistakes, however, the larger they are, the more useful they are to us.
 
Kiba said:
In any case, our "wild ideas" are already normal habits. Mistakes, however, the larger they are, the more useful they are to us.
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This is some of the funniest stuff I've heard. We don't do wild ideas. Wild ideas are instantly shot down by the community. They are the furthest thing from habits. Playing like NPC's is what we do
 
Oneiros said:
This is some of the funniest stuff I've heard. We don't do wild ideas. Wild ideas are instantly shot down by the community. They are the furthest thing from habits. Playing like NPC's is what we do
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Yes, I shot down the heist idea down, because there wasn't any clear need to pull a heist. Nobody had any compelling need to do that other than it seemed fun at the time.

Anyway, the contexts are about tactics to solve a problem in front of us, like in a battle. We're pretty good at that. That's our strength.
 
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