Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

Inferno Vulpix · Feb 12, 2019

Also, I'd like to make this clear again about Hazou's decisions regarding his goals and Keiko's feelings: he had no idea she'd react that bad.

He could've guessed that a reveal like what happened would have such a bad reaction, more or less, but he planned and expected to tell her in a much more controlled and low-tension way. Keiko might have still been upset at Hazou, but in a more grounded way and to a much lesser degree.

If you had asked me before this all went down whether I would support meeting Ami if I knew it would cause consequences like what we saw happen, I'd probably side against it. If you asked me, however, if I would support meeting Ami if it made Keiko frustrated and annoyed at us a little, I'd be in support of it.

Context matters, and Hazou's choice should be judged by his intentions (as modulated by his honest and well-reasoned understanding of the situation he is acting within). I'll fully agree that this outcome hurt Keiko a lot in favour of our goals, but I'll also stand by the fact that Hazou didn't choose to hurt Keiko this much for his goals, and the way things spiraled out of control was unexpected enough that Hazou also can't reasonably be called negligent in his estimations of the effects of his actions.

It's perfectly possible to make the right choice and get the wrong outcome, and I believe that is what happened here.

Noumero · Feb 12, 2019

faflec said:
Yes.

Hmm. Interesting. The first part of the "or"-question is implied, not directly stated. I wonder: did @faflec notice it? If yes, was this "yes" intended as a self-ironic but unambiguous answer to the explicit part of the question, or was it a classic Mathematician's Answer, with all unusualness hidden in the question only?

Cariyaga · Feb 12, 2019

Noumero said:
Hmm. Interesting. The first part of the "or"-question is implied, not directly stated. I wonder: did @faflec notice it? If yes, was this "yes" intended as a self-ironic but unambiguous answer to the explicit part of the question, or was it a classic Mathematician's Answer, with all unusualness hidden in the question only?

Yes.

Noumero · Feb 12, 2019

Cariyaga said:
Yes.

Now we have a new question: did I phrase my previous question specifically to allow for this kind of response, or did I make a genuine mistake, too caught up in analysing that fascinating situation?

Edit: Wait, no, don't answer that.

faflec · Feb 12, 2019

[X] Action Plan: Reasonable Handling of New Information.

Inferno Vulpix said:
We should seek a honest answer regarding whether she's in danger/wants a political marriage.

It would probably be better to word this as a question rather than a statement of intent; saying "Should we seek ––– ?" might work better regarding the presentation to Jiraiya and Keiko (and Noburi).

Inferno Vulpix said:
Would require better OPSEC measures. A walk across the bay followed by a picnic?

More specifically (and I do think it needs be said), we need to make sure that Ami doesn't pull another fast one on us by having the meeting's existence leak but not the contents of the meeting, which is what happened in our last meeting. I'm not entirely sure how to proceed with this without making the meeting so OPSEC-covered we learn nothing from it, but at the same time...

Noumero said:
Now we have a new question: did I phrase my previous question specifically to allow for this kind of response, or did I make a genuine mistake, too caught up in analysing that fascinating situation?

Cariyaga · Feb 12, 2019

We should ask Jiraiya ahead of time about game night with Ami, Ren, and him, so that we can make the offer during the next meeting.

Roomba · Feb 12, 2019

faflec said:
More specifically (and I do think it needs be said), we need to make sure that Ami doesn't pull another fast one on us by having the meeting's existence leak but not the contents of the meeting, which is what happened in our last meeting. I'm not entirely sure how to proceed with this without making the meeting so OPSEC-covered we learn nothing from it, but at the same time...

She almost assuredly will leak it, and we don't have any way of securing it enough to counteract that without her consent. It's the price we pay for actually meeting her. Perhaps this observation should be included in the plan.

TarzanNn · Feb 12, 2019

[X] Action Plan: Reasonable Handling of New Information.

faflec said:
More specifically (and I do think it needs be said), we need to make sure that Ami doesn't pull another fast one on us by having the meeting's existence leak but not the contents of the meeting, which is what happened in our last meeting.

Inferno Vulpix said:
Would require better OPSEC measures. A walk across the bay followed by a picnic?

Hmmm. Perhaps we should instead aim for public place so as to have witness who can reliably confirm contents of the meeting?

e:

huhYeahGoodPoint said:
lmao this is some weaksauce growth mindset

we should be aiming to surpass Naruto

Baby steps, man, baby steps!

Inferno Vulpix · Feb 12, 2019

faflec said:
It would probably be better to word this as a question rather than a statement of intent; saying "Should we seek ––– ?" might work better regarding the presentation to Jiraiya and Keiko (and Noburi).

Easy enough. Done.

faflec said:
More specifically (and I do think it needs be said), we need to make sure that Ami doesn't pull another fast one on us by having the meeting's existence leak but not the contents of the meeting, which is what happened in our last meeting. I'm not entirely sure how to proceed with this without making the meeting so OPSEC-covered we learn nothing from it, but at the same time...

I'm not particularly concerned about the meeting itself leaking. Just the fact that we're meeting isn't enough to mean all that much, and if Ami wanted to shanghai us into marriage then she wouldn't have sent us the second letter that gave us an out.

TarzanNn said:
[X] Action Plan: Reasonable Handling of New Information.

Hmmm. Perhaps we should instead aim for public place so as to have witness who can reliably confirm contents of the meeting?

Public setting makes it a lot harder to talk about the stuff we need to know without being so circumspect it's hard to tell if we even got an answer at all. The privacy of the waters is one of its biggest advantages, because if we ever go on a third meeting I'd really really want to have an answer one way or the other on the proposal.

faflec's requested change of a statement into a question has been implemented, word count neutral:

Inferno Vulpix said:
Reposting the plan once again, if anyone has anything to say about it let me know.

Word Count: 299
[X] Action Plan: Reasonable Handling of New Information.

Show the letter to Jiraiya. Help him find a clean shirt. In the process, quickly confirm conclusions:

Letter #1 was deliberately leaked through a compromised courier. Implication: Courier #2 wasn't compromised.

Letter #2 leaves us an opportunity to go along with the marriage (if it wasn't leaked), and signals that Ami'll drop it if we won't

Letter #1 was pretty aggressive: likely signals that she strongly prefers the former option. Testing Courier #1 was secondary.

If we run out of time, cover these later.

Tell Keiko and Noburi about the second letter. Pre-empt their concerns, this one's good news.

Let them voice their opinions.

Carefully ask Keiko's thoughts on the potential second meeting.

Finally get Noburi's full opinion on the situation.

Do something calming and rote to relax a little, like making explosives.

Help Keiko plan for her upcoming fight.

Once Jiraiya returns, discuss the situation (include Noburi and Keiko; high-OPSEC conditions):

How long before we'll have to leave Mist?

Second meeting with Ami. Should it happen? If so:

Should we seek a honest answer regarding whether she's in danger/wants a political marriage?

Would require better OPSEC measures. A walk across the bay followed by a picnic?

We're a bit shaken from recent events. Any advice?

If Jiraiya approves, send a letter. Contents:

Decline the favour.

Set up the second meeting.

Place: "near" a random restaurant.

Time: tomorrow? (Jiraiya's call.)

If Jiraiya allows us outside:

Watch today's matches.

Verify Ami's story (if time permits).

Disguise: civilian. Collaborate with Noburi. Ideas:

Historian interested in Mist's culinary.

Secret police.

Visit a few restaurants. Inquire about their history, then ask about:

Connection between Byakuren's Cookbook and Experimental Cuisine.

Byakuren's Cookbook serving large groups of ninja.

Byakuren's Cookbook: name-drop Ami for regulars-only menu.

If anyone talks about Hazou and Ami: no comment.

faflec · Feb 12, 2019

Roomba said:
She almost assuredly will leak it, and we don't have any way of securing it enough to counteract that without her consent. It's the price we pay for actually meeting her. Perhaps this observation should be included in the plan.

...possibly stupid idea, but what would happen if we tried to control the narrative the way Ami did, by leaking a message via compromised agent?

TarzanNn · Feb 12, 2019

Inferno Vulpix said:
Public setting makes it a lot harder to talk about the stuff we need to know without being so circumspect it's hard to tell if we even got an answer at all.

True.

Kalkin · Feb 12, 2019

faflec said:
...possibly stupid idea, but what would happen if we tried to control the narrative the way Ami did, by leaking a message via compromised agent?

why leak a single message?

TarzanNn · Feb 12, 2019

Kalkin said:
why leak a single message?

Hmmm. Actually, leaking dozen different messages will mean that everyone know that something's going on (which they already know), but no one will know what exactly... That's pretty good idea! I think we should add a discussion about it to the plan.

Brainstorm dozen fake meeting-agendas with [Keiko and] Noburi to leak them

Probably could be worded better.

e: I'm not sure Keiko will approve. This could be treated as attack on Ami by our group's maniac

faflec · Feb 12, 2019

TarzanNn said:
Hmmm. Actually, leaking dozen different messages will mean that everyone know that something's going on (which they already know), but no one will know what exactly... That's pretty good idea! I think we should add a discussion about it to the plan.

Brainstorm dozen fake meeting-agendas with [Keiko and] Noburi to leak them

Probably could be worded better.

Counterobservation: Leaking too many messages would also allow enemy agents to leak their own messages and disguise them as ours, then claim that theirs are the real ones.

Roomba · Feb 12, 2019

faflec said:
...possibly stupid idea, but what would happen if we tried to control the narrative the way Ami did, by leaking a message via compromised agent?

Control the narrative to what end, though? We're not sure what we want, exactly.

TarzanNn · Feb 12, 2019

faflec said:
Counterobservation: Leaking too many messages would also allow enemy agents to leak their own messages and disguise them as ours, then claim that theirs are the real ones.

It wouldn't mater at that point. No one will ever find the truth. We just need to make sure all of them seems reasonable or believable.

e:

Roomba said:
Control the narrative to what end, though? We're not sure what we want, exactly.

Let's discuss and find out

faflec · Feb 12, 2019

TarzanNn said:
It wouldn't mater at that point. No one will ever find the truth. We just need to make sure all of them seems reasonable or believable.

Then they cherry-pick the ones that suit their plans the most.

Lailoken · Feb 12, 2019

Further thoughts later, but I am alarmed that this has not attracted more attention, especially in light of all of the concerns about the Ami proposal:

Velorien said:
"It was, as I say, necessary. The Nara's relationship with the Gōketsu has grown much stronger due to our role in supporting Jiraiya's rule, and the alliance, if properly steered, offers the potential for us to interact with the Mori without the need for intermediaries. In other words, your political value has depreciated greatly compared to when our clans first made the agreement.

Tua · Feb 12, 2019

Cariyaga said:
He's no Ami; not yet, anyway.

The beauty of the English language allows me to read that as "He has no Ami yet" so I'll just go ahead and pretend you support their marriage as well.

Drasky · Feb 12, 2019

Enjou said:
She could go around us and do something we'd normally expect for her to talk to us about, she could veto a plan of ours and tell us not to do it, she could force us to do something humiliating, or whatever.

Yo, remember the time she bypassed us so she could be passive aggressive with our mother?

She didn't tell us anything about that until it was all said and done. Hazou doesn't hold that over her but she did this all the same.

Cariyaga · Feb 12, 2019

Drasky said:
Yo, remember the time she bypassed us so she could be passive aggressive with our mother?

She didn't tell us anything about that until it was all said and done. Hazou doesn't hold that over her but that she did this all the same.

I don't actually care about that. Neither did Hazou. She's not Hazou. She does care about what Hazou did. This isn't complicated.

TarzanNn · Feb 12, 2019

faflec said:
Then they cherry-pick the ones that suit their plans the most.

Every version circulating in the public would be treated as disinformation. If versiones are believable they will have no way to separate real one from all the other. But most of them will waste preciuos resources on trying to figure it out.

Drasky · Feb 12, 2019

Cariyaga said:
I don't actually care about that. Neither did Hazou. She's not Hazou. She does care about what Hazou did. This isn't complicated.

Drasky said:
Hazou doesn't hold that over her but she did this all the same.

Hazou not caring about it doesn't mean that the action hasn't been done, nor does it mean that she isn't being an unintentional hypocrite. This isn't complicated.

Emstar · Feb 12, 2019

[X] Action Plan: It's Kinda Sorta The Other Plan But With Shopping and Socializing

Wordcount: 399

Morning:

Show new letter to Jiraiya. Conclusions (?):
- Letter #1 was deliberately leaked. Implication: Courier #2 is secure.
- Options: hide Letter #2 and court Ami, or use Letter #2 to back out.
- Ami might prefer the former, since Letter #1 was so aggressive.
Talk with Keiko and Noburi:
- The second letter. Pre-empt concerns: this one's 'good' news.
  - Get their input.
  - Carefully ask Keiko's thoughts on second meeting.
    - Ask permission to potentially talk about her with Ami.
- Would Keiko like planning help for the finals?
  - Yes: Do your best to help.
  - No: That's fine.

Afternoon:

Once Jiraiya returns, discuss situation (include Noburi and Keiko; high-OPSEC):
- How long before we leave Mist?
- Second meeting with Ami. Should it happen? If so:
  - Should we seek an honest answer on if she's in danger/wants a political marriage?
  - Need better OPSEC measures. A walk across the bay, then a picnic?
  - We're a bit shaken from recent events. Any advice?
- If Jiraiya approves, send a letter. Contents:
  - Decline the favour.
  - Set up the second meeting.
    - Place: "near" a random restaurant.
    - Time: tomorrow? (Jiraiya's call.)
Clear this section with Jiraiya:
- If anyone talks about Hazou and Ami: no comment.
- Watch matches.
- Verify Ami's story (if time permits).
  - Byakuren's Cookbook: name-drop 'Ami' for regulars-only menu.
  - Persuade Chouji to visit a few restaurants and inquire about their history. (Meals on us.) Points of interest:
    - Connection between Byakuren's Cookbook and Experimental Cuisine.
    - Byakuren's Cookbook serving large groups of ninja.
- Invite Ino on a shopping trip.
  - Do not discuss Keiko or other sensitive topics.
    - If it comes up, say "I'd prefer not to talk about that, please."
      - If pressed further: "Seriously, Ino. Can we not?"
    - Maintain general OPSEC.
  - Buy a bunch of clothes with 2/3 of your remaining December/November allowances. Spend equally on:
    - Clothes in general. Trust Ino's judgment; she can pick some for herself on us as a thank you.
    - Potential disguises. Commoner's outfits from various countries, etc.
  - Bargaining:
    - We'll buy the cheaper stuff in bulk at a serious discount.
  - Make small talk with the merchants while shopping/browsing.
    - Purpose: Collect more data on merchant behavior,travels and wares.
  - On the way back, pass by the blacksmith near the Mizukage's tower.
    - Thank her. Money was tight growing up, so you're bad with fashion.
    - Reminisce about taking bets to jump onto the Mizukage's tower to help pay the bills. Guess that's far in the past.
Misc:
- Make explosives.

Cariyaga · Feb 12, 2019

Drasky said:
Hazou not caring about it doesn't mean that the action hasn't been done, nor does it mean that she isn't being an unintentional hypocrite. This isn't complicated.

Whether or not she's a hypocrite is also irrelevant, and pointing it out would only serve to force her further into her self-effacing depression.

Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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