I'm a bit concerned that using firelog macerators as terror weapons will remind the Hot Springs team of the forest fire we started while running from them, actually.

For the record, the reason I'm not signing up for the Moody Lottery is that I tend to be cognizant of a lot of little failure modes like this; I simply don't post about them because I don't think it generates better plans on average.
...That sounds like MORE of a reason to sign up, not less of one :p
 
If we're gonna abandon it anyway, isn't it better to leave it standing as a decoy? Though I guess both of those behaviors don't really simulate a t&i team accurately.
Yeah we can't abandon or blow up the facility without likely losing 1000 points.
 
Yeah we can't abandon or blow up the facility without likely losing 1000 points.
If we arrange for it to look like we didn't do it, we can go through with it.

...Maybe summon Panashe and Keiko's engineer pangolin to sap it so that they collapse naturally?

On another note, reread the 12 pages and didn't notice anything new. Best bet is to account for every one of the points Noumero made in that list.
 
Nice job @MadScientist!

On another note, I can't remember, what's the math on how many relative-points we need? Is wrecking all the blue teams in round 1 gonna be sufficient, or will we need to wreck the Red teams too?
 
Nice job @MadScientist!

On another note, I can't remember, what's the math on how many relative-points we need? Is wrecking all the blue teams in round 1 gonna be sufficient, or will we need to wreck the Red teams too?

Frankly, we should wreck everyone possible, sans Team Asuma. Blue teams take priority, but if we run into a red team we absolutely should wreck them.

EDIT - also, we should take any red team member we capture to the medics, or put them in a cell, so they can't earn points.
 
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No seriously, that was really bad. Like, Hazou's proportions didn't even match up correctly or anything. Kei's did, but she's just a silhouette so you can't really tell. I should have spent time at the start correcting Hazou's model to something even vaguely anatomically correct, but oh well.

E: Also this is the first time I've tried to draw someone hunched over and I didn't look at a reference. Which was another mistake.
 
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@Vecht I'm interested in the idea, but I don't know if I'll have the time to commit on a Friday afternoon (or any afternoon really (my schedule isn't consistent)), but I would like to contribute to what I (hopefully) am good at.

Perhaps we should also ask and/or assign roles for people to specialize in, rather than only having general discussion? We all know that @Radvic has a inclination towards explosives and @Jello_Raptor has a reputation for science as well. If other posters could mention what they are most interested in and ask to be pinged when other people believe that said posters would want to be included in the conversation we could cover more topics. This would also help alleviate our tendency to bandwagon around certain ideas if different people are encouraged to look at the situation from different perspectives rather than focusing on only the current conversation.

Another method would be to have people group themselves in general terms for easy identification and as a reminder of what that person likes to contribute towards the thread. I'm thinking HPMOR Harry Potter houses since I would assume most of us have read it already. We're the voices in Hazou's head; why not label ourselves just like how Harry labeled the various perspectives in his own head? You're already suggesting one reference; might as well make another. The two sciencey posters I already pinged would probably be Ravenclaws and we already have @Cariyaga as (I'm assuming) a Hufflepuff.

So, here is my general thread profile for the sake of keeping Hazou alive:
@Dictator4Hire : self identifies as Slytherin
Break glass/ping in case of politics (national or international), business ventures, clan drama, airships, a general lack of necessary applied ruthlessness in the thread, occasional speeches, and INO-SHIPPING
Less interested in: combat maths and unquestioned, knee-jerk restraint
I self identify as Ravenclaw. Interests in Genetics, Microbiology, and Immunology, with lesser-but-still-usually-present interest in general bio and chemistry. Also, I really enjoy thinking about tactics in DnD 5e, although I'm not sure how much that crosses over into Marked for Death.
 
game-theoretic coercion

The thing that makes it game-theoreric anything is if we credibly and believably will only take a particular course of action, and can rely on our opponents knowing this such that they alter their actions to take it into account (presumably to our benefit).

Think of it this way: when the secret message says "This message will self-destruct in 5 seconds," you don't stop to negotiate with it. The key here is to be a static, fixed feature of the environment that cannot be reasoned with, and can only be worked around.

The goal in this case was making it be mutual knowledge among literally everyone that "Team Uplift is going to follow a strategy where they clearly, visibly, and auidibly mark a location, and then proceed to demolish it with the force of a pissed off old-testament deity." We then use that to collect points because everyone knows fucking with us = certain death.

I kept trying to say something to this effect before, but people's kneejerk reaction is "but what if people don't believe us," to which the rejoinder is "THEN WE FAILED AT STEP 0, WE KNOW WE FAILED AT STEP 0, AND WE DON'T EXECUTE."

That said, I believe it is too late to pursue this strategy now. We would have had to do lots of prep work before the event.
 
@Vecht I'm interested in trying out the Moody thing, tho might not have internet for most of tomorrow :(
Keep me on the list for next time? (In case there ends up being a next time.)
 
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Another method would be to have people group themselves in general terms for easy identification and as a reminder of what that person likes to contribute towards the thread. I'm thinking HPMOR Harry Potter houses since I would assume most of us have read it already.

Since we're discussing house affiliations, I might as well state mine. I mean, it almost goes without saying, but just so everyone knows, I'm Hufflepuff.
 
Let's assume the highest scoring team (currently) is Asuma: They got 80-something in the second event, 299 in the third event and 222-ish in the fourth event for a total of 601 points. Obviously we won't be screwing them over, but if we did, and they were on Blue team this round, we could get a total of:

-75 (document turnin)
-225 (whole team unconscious/Moderate Consequence'd)
+180 (for turning in the documents within the first hour)

For a total relative score of +480 for the first round. Add that to our own scores and we would come in right behind team Asuma.

If they are a red team:

-55*9 (unconscious/consequence'd, in a cell) for -495
+180 (for turning in documents within the first hour)

For a total relative score of +675.

So, yes, I think we should definitely wreck every team. What I am not sure about is whether turning in a person to the medical tent triggers penalties like unconscious/consequence'd, etc.
 
Let's assume the highest scoring team (currently) is Asuma: They got 80-something in the second event, 299 in the third event and 222-ish in the fourth event for a total of 601 points. Obviously we won't be screwing them over, but if we did, and they were on Blue team this round, we could get a total of:

-75 (document turnin)
-225 (whole team unconscious/Moderate Consequence'd)
+180 (for turning in the documents within the first hour)

For a total relative score of +480 for the first round. Add that to our own scores and we would come in right behind team Asuma.

If they are a red team:

-55*9 (unconscious/consequence'd, in a cell) for -495
+180 (for turning in documents within the first hour)

For a total relative score of +675.

So, yes, I think we should definitely wreck every team. What I am not sure about is whether turning in a person to the medical tent triggers penalties like unconscious/consequence'd, etc.
We shouldn't chance the medical tent thing.

We absolutely need to wreck every team. We will spare team Asuma in exchange for some assistance either this Round or the next depending on their color
 
Just so everyone knows I am a slytherin. Also ping me if you ever want advice on how to mitigate risk in ambitious plans
 
So, yes, I think we should definitely wreck every team. What I am not sure about is whether turning in a person to the medical tent triggers penalties like unconscious/consequence'd, etc.

I'd be surprised if it were different from last round, where you could still lose points but not gain any.
 
Is wrecking all the blue teams in round 1 gonna be sufficient, or will we need to wreck the Red teams too?
We need to wreck all teams in R1, yes. That was likely the bad thing EagleJarl warned us about.

Regarding points... We're going to give our Blue Team -300 points, other Blue Teams -225 points, and all other Red Teams either -495 or -225 points depending on how cell rules work. We ourselves will get 185 points, for a minimum relative advantage of 410 points.

We currently have at most 49 + 315 - 223 = 141 points. We scored middling-well in the second event, first in the third event, and last in the fourth event. Going by Keiko's analysis of the second event, @Veedrac's analysis of the third event, and Team Kurenai's performance in the fourth event, the current top individual could have at most 100 + 298 + 200 = 598 points, i. e. a relative advantage of 457 points.

After (a perfectly-executed) R1, we'll have 326 points, and the top individual will have 373 points.

Assuming we won't be able to do anything creative in R2, we'll gain 140 points, and a hypothetical perfect Red Team somewhere out there will gain 185 points, for a 45 points advantage over us.

Since we'll take many people's word-halves, since there will also be "natural" losers in R2 even without our tampering, since we'll likely be able to do something interesting in R2, and since there's unlikely to be 13 individuals who did maximally well in the second, the third, and the fourth events, and who will both do maximally well in the fifth event and retain their word-halves, we likely could be content with our 466 points.

In comparison, the notional-and-wildly-unlikely perfect genin will have 558 points.

The thing that makes it game-theoreric anything is if we credibly and believably will only take a particular course of action, and can rely on our opponents knowing this such that they alter their actions to take it into account (presumably to our benefit).
Yes, I understand that. I'm not sure how it could be done with a sufficient probability of success, and how we would be able to check this success before executing it, though. Any our social action could be interpreted as an elaborate deception by a sufficiently stupid/defiant/stubborn enemy. Do you have any concrete ideas?
 
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We need to wreck all teams in R1, yes. That was likely the bad thing EagleJarl warned us about.

Regarding points... We're going to give our Blue Team -300 points, other Blue Teams -225 points, and all other Red Teams either -495 or -225 points depending on how cell rules work. We ourselves will get 185 points, for a minimum relative advantage of 410 points.

We currently have at most 49 + 315 - 223 = 141 points. We scored middling-well in the second event, first in the third event, and last in the fourth event. Going by Keiko's analysis of the second event, @Veedrac's analysis of the third event, and Team Kurenai's performance in the fourth event, the current top individual could have at most 100 + 298 + 200 = 598 points, i. e. a relative advantage of 457 points.

After (a perfectly-executed) R1, we'll have 326 points, and the top individual will have 373 points.

Assuming we won't be able to do anything creative in R2, we'll gain 140 points, and a hypothetical perfect Red Team somewhere out there will gain 185 points, for a 45 points advantage over us.

Since we'll take many people's word-halves, since there will also be "natural" losers in R2 even without our tampering, since we'll likely be able to do something interesting in R2, and since there's unlikely to be 13 individuals who did maximally well in the second, the third, and the fourth events, and who will both do maximally well in the fifth event and retain their word-halves, we likely could be content with our 466 points.

In comparison, the notional-and-wildly-unlikely perfect genin will have 558 points.


Yes, I understand that. I'm not sure how it could be done with a sufficient probability of success, and how we would be able to check this success before executing it, though. Any our social action could be interpreted as an elaborate deception by a sufficiently stupid/defiant/stubborn enemy. Do you have any concrete ideas?

Don't forget that in round two, teams with lasting Moderate Comsequences take penalties. So, nearly everyone will have -150 going in, except for, maybe, a blue team with a Leaf and one of our round 1allies, or a red team with maybe a Leaf and Wolf member.
 
Don't forget that in round two, teams with lasting Moderate Comsequences take penalties. So, nearly everyone will have -150 going in, except for, maybe, a blue team with a Leaf and one of our round 1allies, or a red team with maybe a Leaf and Wolf member.
Hm. Interesting point. We'll be solidly in the lead then, with a 466-558+225 = 133 points advantage.

Why did you say 150, though, if it's 25 x 9 = 225?
 
Hm. Interesting point. We'll be solidly in the lead then, with a 466-558+225 = 133 points advantage.

Why did you say 150, though, if it's 25 x 9 = 225?

-150 for the teams paired with those spared in the first round - it could be every blue team, and maybe 3 red teams, if we spare maximum number of people and the spared folks are evenly distributed. (Us, 2 allies, 3 Leaf, 1 Wolf)
 
Don't forget that in round two, teams with lasting Moderate Comsequences take penalties. So, nearly everyone will have -150 going in, except for, maybe, a blue team with a Leaf and one of our round 1allies, or a red team with maybe a Leaf and Wolf member.

Not sure if this is the case - the rules may only punish additional Moderate Consequences injuries taken, rather than existing ones. (and honestly, most people with Moderate Consequences from the first round may well simply withdraw rather than risk taking further injury, since continuing in that state is risky and stupid)
 
-150 for the teams paired with those spared in the first round - it could be every blue team, and maybe 3 red teams, if we spare maximum number of people and the spared folks are evenly distributed. (Us, 2 allies, 3 Leaf, 1 Wolf)
I see. Wait, isn't this irrelevant then? Then everyone, ourselves included, will lose no less than 150 points for injuries. We'll have 75 points advantage over a fully-injured team... and a (9 - 3 Leaf - 1 Sky - 1 Wolf) x 25 = 100 points disadvantage over a theoretical least-injured team.

On second thoughts, I'm also not sure the rules for injuries work this way. Wouldn't they be invoked "for every injury taken this round", not "every injury present at the end of this round"? Exact wording is vague, and the first interpretation seems more in-spirit.
 
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