We need to wreck all teams in R1, yes. That was likely the bad thing EagleJarl warned us about.
Regarding points... We're going to give our Blue Team -300 points, other Blue Teams -225 points, and all other Red Teams either -495 or -225 points depending on how cell rules work. We ourselves will get 185 points, for a minimum relative advantage of 410 points.
We currently have at most 49 + 315 - 223 = 141 points. We scored middling-well in the second event, first in the third event, and last in the fourth event. Going by Keiko's
analysis of the second event,
@Veedrac's
analysis of the third event, and Team Kurenai's performance in the fourth event,
the current top individual could have at most 100 + 298 + 200 = 598 points, i. e. a relative advantage of 457 points.
After (a perfectly-executed) R1, we'll have 326 points, and the top individual will have 373 points.
Assuming we won't be able to do anything creative in R2, we'll gain 140 points, and a hypothetical perfect Red Team somewhere out there will gain 185 points, for a 45 points advantage over us.
Since we'll take many people's word-halves, since there will also be "natural" losers in R2 even without our tampering, since we'll likely be able to do
something interesting in R2, and since there's unlikely to be 13 individuals who did maximally well in the second, the third, and the fourth events, and who will both do maximally well in the fifth event
and retain their word-halves, we likely could be content with our 466 points.
In comparison, the notional-and-wildly-unlikely perfect genin will have 558 points.
Yes, I understand that. I'm not sure
how it could be done with a sufficient probability of success, and how we would be able to
check this success before executing it, though.
Any our social action could be interpreted as an elaborate deception by a sufficiently stupid/defiant/stubborn enemy. Do you have any concrete ideas?