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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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eaglejarl said:
I'm confused -- what exactly is the plan that achieves these numbers? Please ELI5 because I'm not tracking it properly.
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Very possible I fucked up the math. The scenario is:

R1:
We acquire and turn in the documents within an hour. We inflict moderate consequences on all blue team members and destroy the documents for all the blue teams other than our own.

R2:
We inflict moderate consequences on the members of all the OTHER blue teams and destroy their documents. We levy moderate consequences on our paired red team and put all their members in cells.
 
eaglejarl said:
I'm confused -- what exactly is the plan that achieves these numbers? Please ELI5 because I'm not tracking it properly.
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He double counted accidentally in the last paragraph I believe. Most optimistic relative net for us is like ~600, assuming no fuckups on anyone else's part and that the proctor won't take our blowing up the facilities a posteri as a -1000 simulation penalty on the Blue Team sides
 
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faflec said:
Huh? They can respond right now, they're supposed to give the explosive countersign.
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Our proctor is letting us chill out.

Do we have any reason to believe the others will be allowed to fire explosives off into the air?

Edit: not to mention this gives away our exact position to Blue Team
 
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I mean if you want the oposing blue team to try and ambush us the second the timer runs out, then throwing explosives into the air and giving away our position is a good way to do it.

If y'all do decide a signal is a good idea, then we should do it AFTER the two hours are up so that we have freedom of movement.
 
MMKII said:
Our proctor is letting us chill out.

Do we have any reason to believe the others will be allowed to fire explosives off into the air?
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We are allowed to practice. Still, it was just a thought. I was considering a Team Asuma/Team Goketsu group-up wherein Blue Team Shikamaru lets us take their documents after 2hr, we hide them in the Summoning Realm, and at the very end give them back to ensure their points.
 
On that note, we should work out how good our team is. At combat, that is. Pankurashun can help with a quick lesson in working together for the other two squads.
 
MMKII said:
@Roomba
Assumption Penalty: Why would they assume Team Uplift alone has the word halves?

I would argue it's still pointless to draw attention to the fact that we, Team Uplift, have all of the stolen word halves and that they weren't say, evenly divyed up among our Red Team for the first round.

This is extra information that giving out only hurts us. Our team will be spread out over 3 different teams next Round anyway, most likely. So there will be 3 potential targets for them if they feel the need to try and take back the word halves.
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The problem is that, whatever we specifically do in round 1, there's going to be a lot of attention on us in round 2, much of it negative. When it comes to word halves, we have the following options:
  • Ignore them. No benefit, but no additional problems in round 2.
  • Destroy them. Benefit from DQing people from the first event. No material reason for enemies to come after us in round 2, but much negative attention nevertheless. Very likely reprisal and uncooperative teammates.
  • Steal them, distribute amongst round 1 Red Team. Strong incentive to attack us and our teammates during the break and round 2. Uncertainty from who has which half word adds to the chaos.
  • Steal them, store on Seventh Path, offer in deals. Only reason to attack us is revenge, incentive to work with us to regain word half. Lots of mistrust between candidates due to public offer and possibility of defection.
  • ????
Which one would you prefer, and how would you deal with the downsides of it?
 
18scsc said:
I agree that it is probable blue will have at most one squad in the T&I facility, as not having anyone man the facility would probably count as violating "the normal functionality of a T&I facility". That leaves a potential 6 ninja roaming around, but I don't think this is enough of a negative to be what EJ mentioned. I will also note that even if the overwhelming majority of ninja are in the facility, the key will have to stay in the facility.
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Why would they leave anyone in the facility? As long as no one fetches a proctor, they can do whatever they want so they could be roaming as a pack of nine ninjas, ambush their Red Team and then immediately have 3 or so ninjas head back inside to pretend they were there all along.

Also, EJ rated my post about the word halves probably not being the thing we missed as insightful so I guess we gotta keep looking.
 
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We should expect at least one other team to follow our strategy. They would be led by a combat squad who did terribly in the social event. They will either already have a Wakahisa equivalent or will do anything to acquire one.

the good news is they boost our score as long as they don't beat us.

So what do they do? They don't have summons, so they aren't under quite the time crunch we are. We might be able to form an alliance, though that would cost us an all Leaf tournament. We could partner with a trusted STL led team to take them out. We could spread treason in their ranks.
 
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Tua said:
Why would they leave anyone in the facility? As long as no one fetches a proctor, they can do whatever they want so they could be roaming as a pack of nine ninjas, ambush their Red Team and then immediately have 3 or so ninjas head back inside to pretend they were there all along.
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This is certainly possible.
 
faflec said:
We are allowed to practice. Still, it was just a thought. I was considering a Team Asuma/Team Goketsu group-up wherein Blue Team Shikamaru lets us take their documents after 2hr, we hide them in the Summoning Realm, and at the very end give them back to ensure their points.
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No I understand exactly what you're saying. Instead of going into whether or not the proctors are being uniformly lenient or something with respect to "being allowed to practice" or whatever she meant by that, my objection could be summarized as:




"WHERE IS THE EXPLOSIONS CURRENT POSITION, @faflec!?"



Roomba said:
The problem is that, whatever we specifically do in round 1, there's going to be a lot of attention on us in round 2, much of it negative. When it comes to word halves, we have the following options:
  • Ignore them. No benefit, but no additional problems in round 2.
  • Destroy them. Benefit from DQing people from the first event. No material reason for enemies to come after us in round 2, but much negative attention nevertheless. Very likely reprisal and uncooperative teammates.
  • Steal them, distribute amongst round 1 Red Team. Strong incentive to attack us and our teammates during the break and round 2. Uncertainty from who has which half word adds to the chaos.
  • Steal them, store on Seventh Path, offer in deals. Only reason to attack us is revenge, incentive to work with us to regain word half. Lots of mistrust between candidates due to public offer and possibility of defection.
  • ????
Which one would you prefer, and how would you deal with the downsides of it?
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Steal and store on the Seventh path. Don't advertise this to everyone , though?

Attacking during the break likely has extreme penalties? It's not stated but I would assume so...

We are planning on getting a lot of negative attention regardless, so we might as well throw all the things likely to net us points and DQ others into our extradimensional safe.

From an enemy's perspective though, there is no way of knowing which one of many of these numerous strategies we've done. They're going to revenge attack us unless we utterly terrify them anyway, I don't see stealing the word halves adding more fuel to this fire in any meaningful quantity.
 
MMKII said:
He double counted accidentally in the last paragraph I believe. Most optimistic relative net for us is like ~600, assuming no fuckups on anyone else's part and that the proctor won't take our blowing up the facilities a posteri as a -1000 simulation penalty on the Blue Team sides
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Can you let me know what I double counted so I can fix it in an edit? I can't see where I messed up rn.
 
MMKII said:
Steal and store on the Seventh path. Don't advertise this to everyone, though?

[..]

From an enemy's perspective though, there is no way of knowing which one of many of these numerous strategies we've done. They're going to revenge attack us unless we utterly terrify them anyway, I don't see stealing the word halves adding more fuel to this fire in any meaningful quantity.
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The advantage of telling people it's on the 7th path is that there is absolutely no reason to attack us (for the word halves), because even if they can defeat us they cannot get the word halves without our consent.
 
18scsc said:
This is something that really needs to be settled. It depends on a couple of factors. I'm thinking it might be a good idea to just crush blue in both rounds. If we destroy the documents opposing red teams cannot gain ANY points (but can still lose them). If we put huge negatives on blues and prevent reds from getting any points in both rounds and earn max points in both rounds then...

Round One (r1):
Our red team will get +185 points
Other red teams get 0 (MAX, can still go up to -495 negative)
Our blue teams get -300
Other blue teams get -225

Round Two (r2):
Our blue team will get +140 points
Other blue teams will get -225
Our red team will get -495 negative
Other red teams will get +0 (MAX, can still go up to -495 negative)

Which totals at worst a +365 relative net for us in our same-color cohort (+325 total for us over both rounds, +185 for our r1 teamates, -225 for our r1 teammates if they're not on our matching blue team in r2), and at best a +550 margin (+325 for us both rounds, +0 for folk in our color cohort that are NOT in our r1 team, and -225 for them in r2).

For the opposite-color cohort that's at worst a +550 relative net (+325 for us over both rounds, -225 for nonmatching r1 blue teams, 0 if they're nonmatching red teams r2 as well). At best a +1120 relative net for us (+325 total for us over both rounds, -300 for our matching r1 blue team, and -495 if someone faces us again as red in r2).
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Oh, no I see what you're saying now. My apologies.

You had me confused with the last sentence You are correct I think. Wow, that 1120 would be extremely unfortunate, but more likely it's going to be around ~800-900 net, even if we do quite well.
 
Should we do polls so we can agree on different aspects of the plans? I think the single most important factor for the rest of the planning is which color of teams we'll go after in each round, and also how we should treat other STL members (and by extension, their team).

I'm down for just destroying all of the blue teams in the r1 and capturing their word halves. For r2 I'm thinking we take down the other blue teams in the first two hours, crush our own red team, and just play it as safe as we can after that.
 
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MMKII said:
Steal and store on the Seventh path. Don't advertise this to everyone , though?

Attacking during the break likely has extreme penalties? It's not stated but I would assume so...

We are planning on getting a lot of negative attention regardless, so we might as well throw all the things likely to net us points and DQ others into our extradimensional safe.

From an enemy's perspective though, there is no way of knowing which one of many of these numerous strategies we've done. They're going to revenge attack us unless we utterly terrify them anyway, I don't see stealing the word halves adding more fuel to this fire in any meaningful quantity.
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I mean, so you're fine with getting immediately ganged up on and KOd in round 2? Because if we steal the word halves, I see that as very likely. In fact, it'll be a race to get to us, steal our word halves, and trade them. Everyone's working assumption is going to be that we have them, because that's the only one that gives them an opportunity to recover theirs.

The public offer strategy at least gives most of the candidates a reason not to attack us immediately in round 2.
 
Roomba said:
I mean, so you're fine with getting immediately ganged up on and KOd in round 2? Because if we steal the word halves, I see that as very likely. In fact, it'll be a race to get to us, steal our word halves, and trade them. Everyone's working assumption is going to be that we have them, because that's the only one that gives them an opportunity to recover theirs.
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How many people do you think will come after us and how many of those will not have moderate consequences? We would not be constrained by the 2h wait time as Blue Teams so at most we will face 3x9 other Blue Team members and can give back the world halves to our current allies in our Blue Team.
 
I'd like to ask our native proctor about the minutia of the DQ-from-event ruling regarding being taken to the medical tents.
 
We have 72 competitors. Notional casualty rate is 20% knocked out.

This means we will have 58 competitor next round, which gives us 27% of making to the tournament.
 
Roomba said:
I mean, so you're fine with getting immediately ganged up on and KOd in round 2? Because if we steal the word halves, I see that as very likely. In fact, it'll be a race to get to us, steal our word halves, and trade them. Everyone's working assumption is going to be that we have them, because that's the only one that gives them an opportunity to recover theirs.

The public offer strategy at least gives most of the candidates a reason not to attack us immediately in round 2.
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We are planning on at least beating everyone on the opposing color into paste this Round.

Is that not reason enough for them to unilaterally gang up on us, independent on anything we end up doing with the word halves?

We should prepare for everyone on Red at least to rush us in Round 2 as soon as they are able to, because they will, word halves or not.
 
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