Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

[traverseda]

@eaglejarl, @Velorien, @OliWhail, if I make significant advances in one of these fields, over the next two years, where significant means "net profit of at least 2 million dollars", can hazo create a similar technology?

* Digital microfluidics and automated medical testing
* maskless photolithography and computer-chip prototyping (apply equivalent to sealing?)
* Macro-scale self-replicators
* Financial instruments

Hopefully this can make you more accepting of broken power curves from rationalist protagonists with significant means.

 

[Deathbybunnies]

@eaglejarl, @Velorien, @OliWhail, if I make significant advances in one of these fields, over the next two years, where significant means "net profit of at least 2 million dollars", can hazo create a similar technology?

* Digital microfluidics and automated medical testing
* maskless photolithography and computer-chip prototyping (apply equivalent to sealing?)
* Macro-scale self-replicators
* Financial instruments

Hopefully this can make you more accepting of broken power curves from rationalist protagonists with significant means.

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Only if you donate it for, uh, verification purposes.

 

[faflec]

EDIT: Related thought: Your plan for this first event of the Exams is an interesting example of rational choices that don't serve your direct interests. If Hazō, Keiko, and Noburi had huddled in the doom fortress doing nothing but making and trading seals they would have walked out of the swamp with something like 150 seals each. They would have been virtually certain to be at the top of the rankings. They would have brought honor to their village and shown the power and cleverness of the Gōketsu clan, thereby helping to cement Jiraiya's power as Hokage. They wouldn't have had to do any fighting at all -- they could have gone out of the Swamp at any point and circled around safely, avoiding any possibility of ambush.

Instead, you placed your values of cooperation and regard for the social fabric above your own interests. By bringing the other 9 genin into the fold and sharing seals with them equally you drasticly worsened your own chances of winning. In order to make 12 people place in the top rankings you're going to have to control 25-50% of the entire available pool of seals which means needing to do a LOT of fighting, and you're going to need to do it on a very tight timetable (about 25 minutes) against whoever comes by, with very little opportunity to choose your battles -- although fortunately most of the people who go by are going to already be tired and beaten up.

As a result of these choices you're probably going to place in the middle of the pack at best...but you will ensure that the other 9 Leaf genin are also in the middle of the pack instead of either crushing the event (by finding and defeating many other candidates) or being eliminated due to poor luck in finding targets or accidentally facing off against a stronger group.

You've traded off the low-risk / high-reward strategy that benefited only yourselves for a moderate-risk / moderate-reward strategy that benefits everyone but that will definitely not bring the same sort of acclaim to the Gōketsu clan that it could have had otherwise.

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And now I'm worried Jiraiya'll be mad that we put Konoha doing well over us doing really well.

 

[traverseda]

Only if you donate it for, uh, verification purposes.

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I'm an open-souce zealot, and eagle knows my real name. Should be fine.

 

[eaglejarl]

I want to see if we-the-hivemind can design an seal-drawing machine using modifications of IRL designs. We already know it's theoretically possible since the Kurosawa clan's bloodline makes them biological seal-drawing machines.

Edit: I should clarify that I want the machine to actually produce seal blanks that can be infused and used without seal failure incidents.

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Even if you could invent such a machine it would only guarantee that the blank was valid. It wouldn't guarantee the infusion roll succeeded.

But, yes. If you want to work on such a machine there's no theoretical reason that Hazō knows of that it couldn't be done.

 

[Velorien]

@eaglejarl, @Velorien, @OliWhail, if I make significant advances in one of these fields, over the next two years, where significant means "net profit of at least 2 million dollars", can hazo create a similar technology?

* Digital microfluidics and automated medical testing
* maskless photolithography and computer-chip prototyping (apply equivalent to sealing?)
* Macro-scale self-replicators
* Financial instruments

Hopefully this can make you more accepting of broken power curves from rationalist protagonists with significant means.

Click to shrink...

Yes, if you start from Hazō's position in terms of both material resources and the scientific level of your civilisation.

 

[Deathbybunnies]

I'm an open-souce zealot, and eagle knows my real name. Should be fine.

Click to shrink...

It was a poor joke about demanding money rather than a slight against your trustworthiness

 

[faflec]

Even if you could invent such a machine it would only guarantee that the blank was valid. It wouldn't guarantee the infusion roll succeeded.

But, yes. If you want to work on such a machine there's no theoretical reason that Hazō knows of that it couldn't be done.

Click to shrink...

Infuse takes negligible time. If you failed Draw or if you fail Infuse then there is always a mishap.

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Basically if we make a bunch of machines making explosive seals the time it takes for a sealmaster to make, say, explosive seals...well, it drops down fast.

Like, let-the-machines-run-24/7-and-mass-infuse-hundreds-of-explosive-seals-at-once kind of fast.

 

[Roomba]

EDIT: Related thought: Your plan for this first event of the Exams is an interesting example of rational choices that don't serve your direct interests. If Hazō, Keiko, and Noburi had huddled in the doom fortress doing nothing but making and trading seals they would have walked out of the swamp with something like 150 seals each. They would have been virtually certain to be at the top of the rankings. They would have brought honor to their village and shown the power and cleverness of the Gōketsu clan, thereby helping to cement Jiraiya's power as Hokage. They wouldn't have had to do any fighting at all -- they could have gone out of the Swamp at any point and circled around safely, avoiding any possibility of ambush.

Instead, you placed your values of cooperation and regard for the social fabric above your own interests. By bringing the other 9 genin into the fold and sharing seals with them equally you drasticly worsened your own chances of winning. In order to make 12 people place in the top rankings you're going to have to control 25-50% of the entire available pool of seals which means needing to do a LOT of fighting, and you're going to need to do it on a very tight timetable (about 25 minutes) against whoever comes by, with very little opportunity to choose your battles -- although fortunately most of the people who go by are going to already be tired and beaten up.

As a result of these choices you're probably going to place in the middle of the pack at best...but you will ensure that the other 9 Leaf genin are also in the middle of the pack instead of either crushing the event (by finding and defeating many other candidates) or being eliminated due to poor luck in finding targets or accidentally facing off against a stronger group.

You've traded off the low-risk / high-reward strategy that benefited only yourselves for a moderate-risk / moderate-reward strategy that benefits everyone but that will definitely not bring the same sort of acclaim to the Gōketsu clan that it could have had otherwise.

Click to shrink...

I actually disagree with this. For one, it ignores the broader context of the exam. There are good reasons to expect us to be disproportionately targeted in the course of any event that permits it. Sitting in a fort alone and cranking out seals is indeed a high reward strategy, but it's also high risk - all it takes is a coalition of two other skilled teams to significantly threaten us; three or more would probably succeed by default. What we ended up doing is a way of managing said risk - we get fewer guaranteed seals, but the probability of getting knocked out is decreased to very low. There are also various long-term benefits of cooperating with our fellow Leaf teams in this way, of course, but the safety is a very direct "selfish" benefit we get from the setup that you didn't account for.

And honestly, if this is a line of criticism we can expect from Jiraiya about our strategy, I'm confident in defending against it.

 

[OliWhail]

I want to see if we-the-hivemind can design an seal-drawing machine using modifications of IRL designs. We already know it's theoretically possible since the Kurosawa clan's bloodline makes them biological seal-drawing machines.

Edit: I should clarify that I want the machine to actually produce seal blanks that can be infused and used without seal failure incidents.

Click to shrink...

I believe the thread has talked about letter-copying mechanisms (aka a 'polygraph') like the one famously used by Thomas Jefferson as an example of a thing that might do this - I see no reason why a sufficiently well-made similar mechanism wouldn't work for making seal blanks.

@eaglejarl, @Velorien, @OliWhail, if I make significant advances in one of these fields, over the next two years, where significant means "net profit of at least 2 million dollars", can hazo create a similar technology?

* Digital microfluidics and automated medical testing
* maskless photolithography and computer-chip prototyping (apply equivalent to sealing?)
* Macro-scale self-replicators
* Financial instruments

Hopefully this can make you more accepting of broken power curves from rationalist protagonists with significant means.

Click to shrink...

Like @Velorien indicated, the objection on the QM side here would end up being that Hazō is starting from a totally different base tech/education level.

Also:

Macro-scale self-replicators

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*sense of doom intensifies*

 

[faflec]

I believe the thread has talked about letter-copying mechanisms (aka a 'polygraph') like the one famously used by Thomas Jefferson as an example of a thing that might do this - I see no reason why a sufficiently well-made similar mechanism wouldn't work for making seal blanks.

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Right, but that still requires the sealmaster to draw, it just makes them able to draw multiple seal blanks at once. I'm envisioning a machine that does away with the sealmaster's input altogether. As in, they get to program the machine, have the machine draw the seal blanks, and then infuse them several hours later once a big pile of seal blanks have been completed.

 

[hYGP]

Right, but that still requires the sealmaster to draw, it just makes them able to draw multiple seal blanks at once. I'm envisioning a machine that does away with the sealmaster's input altogether. As in, they get to program the machine, have the machine draw the seal blanks, and then infuse them several hours later once a big pile of seal blanks have been completed.

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So in other words, you want to make seal printing presses. It's actually a really good idea, simply because it lets you subcontract explosive seal blank production to civilians, which can then be sold at a greatly reduced cost and still increase profits across the board.

 

[faflec]

So in other words, you want to make seal printing presses. It's actually a really good idea, simply because it lets you subcontract explosive seal blank production to civilians, which can then be sold at a greatly reduced cost and still increase profits across the board.

Click to shrink...

The fact that's such a great idea makes me wonder why they haven't been invented yet. It's clearly a massive advantage to the villages, yet doesn't exist?

Then again, we just got the printing press. So maybe technology hasn't advanced enough?

 

[hYGP]

The fact that's such a great idea makes me wonder why they haven't been invented yet. It's clearly a massive advantage to the villages, yet doesn't exist?

Then again, we just got the printing press. So maybe technology hasn't advanced enough?

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Honestly? Each seal printing press, hell, even a pantograph is probably a woodcraft masterwork, with similar prices, and mass production/standardized design probably isn't even a concept yet.

And this is for one sealmaster's seal. Skywalkers might be one of the few seals where it'd come even remotely close to breaking even, and even then it'll probably take months before the actual pantograph is ready.

 

[fictionfan]

The fact that's such a great idea makes me wonder why they haven't been invented yet. It's clearly a massive advantage to the villages, yet doesn't exist?

Then again, we just got the printing press. So maybe technology hasn't advanced enough?

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Well every seal master makes their seals differently so a seal printer would have to be costumized for one seal master.

 

[traverseda]

*sense of doom intensifies*

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That's why it's macro scale, it's safer. Also I've think I've got a reasonable path towards it, unlike other methods. Alright, if I can do it using 90% things they could have done in the 60's (while taking advantage of cheaper software), I think it demonstrates the low-hanging tech stuff.

 

[faflec]

Honestly? Each seal printing press, hell, even a pantograph is probably a woodcraft masterwork, with similar prices, and mass production/standardized design probably isn't even a concept yet.

And this is for one sealmaster's seal. Skywalkers might be one of the few seals where it'd come even remotely close to breaking even, and even then it'll probably take months before the actual pantograph is ready.

Click to shrink...

Well every seal master makes their seals differently so a seal printer would have to be costumized for one seal master.

Click to shrink...

We need to make replaceable parts a thing.

I was considering making a series of discs, with different indentations at different positions to indicate position, thickness, length of the line, etc.. No idea how to get that to work though, I'm not an engineer.

 

[Golden Eyed King]

@eaglejarl what is the limit of separation for Uzumaki seal police cops turning up for intentional seal failures? Could we teach someone intentionally wrong and send them to "evil country X" and not have th USPC turn up?


P.S. USPC = Uzumaki Seal Police Cops.

 

[TenebrousDreamer]

zap lunch

 

[hYGP]

@eaglejarl what is the limit of separation for Uzumaki seal police cops turning up for intentional seal failures? Could we teach someone intentionally wrong and send them to "evil country X" and not have th USPC turn up?


P.S. USPC = Uzumaki Seal Police Cops.

Click to shrink...

Nope. The Watchers got Jiraiya for deliberately misinfusing a seal in the middle of combat; clearly, they are plenty capable of being able to tell what seal related mishaps someone is doing almost arbitrarily well.

We need to make replaceable parts a thing.

I was considering making a series of discs, with different indentations at different positions to indicate position, thickness, length of the line, etc.. No idea how to get that to work though, I'm not an engineer.

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Consider who you'd have to convince: The Merchant Council, first of all, then convincing the master craftsmen, and when they inevitably can't agree on anything, the junior craftsmen, etc.

Replaceable parts are great, but making all the parts to specs is the hardest part. I think A Hero's War covered the subject quite well, honestly.

But, well, I'm having a difficult time even visualizing how your disk method would work; would you mind explaining further?

 

[traverseda]

But, well, I'm having a difficult time even visualizing how your disk method would work; would you mind explaining further?

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Maillardet's automaton - Wikipedia uses a "grooved disk" method, if memory serves.

 

[Cariyaga]

This is an interesting angle I never considered. Actually, I think there's something I'm missing with the whole point economy of this 2nd test. Feel free to tell me to shove it if I'm not getting a clue, but at this point I'm starting to suspect I'm loony.

According to Shikamaru's estimate, on average, every individual in the swamp spent an ~100CP(?) on proctor seals, which strikes me as a lot of chakra, even spread over 2 days. teams in the know wouldn't have spent any chakra on the first day unless they had a plan to limit seal supply, precluding chakra regen discounts. That's about 15 Mist teams and 4 Leaf teams, for a total of 57 individuals who spent 0CP on the first day. I suppose we could be set to run into teams ~50CP down...

Also, proctors don't have magical access to one huge seal supply, meaning the number of distributors will go down as the exam progresses and pouches empty, making babysitting a proctor a more viable tactic with time. If the seal supply truly ran out or came close to running out, I expect there were some spectacular battles over the last remaining proctors.

The game theoretical incentive seems to be to never spend chakra on seals while preying on teams that have weakened themselves by spending chakra, delaying any interaction as long as possible in a sort of chicken equivalent. Optionally, spend as much chakra as one deems safe right before the end and make a rush for the finish when the chance of interacting with enemies is lowest. Before then, the only incentive to spend chakra on seals is if one thinks one has done a less than average job of taking seals from other teams, forcing one to make up the deficit. Otherwise, spending chakra on seals lowers the chances of winning in a fight and gives victorious opponents more points, for no gain.

To sum up, I'd divide the exam into 2 conceptual stages. 1. If you have a ridiculous amount of chakra like Naruto or expect to perform middlingly, deliberately decrease the available seal supply to lower variance/prevent anyone else from winning. 2. Prey on teams who cave to getting seals until the last moment, where based on performance, spend chakra on seals last minute or finish the exam. In the absence of Naruto, I'd expect the vast majority of seals to remain unclaimed.

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I agree with regard to the game theoretic incentives; it's something I had considered before, too.

@eaglejarl Did Shikamaru take this into account?

 

[Tua]

And now I'm worried Jiraiya'll be mad that we put Konoha doing well over us doing really well.

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We can spin this.

The Goketsu is the clan of the Hokage. A Hokage who cares more about the greater good of the Leaf Village than even himself so our strategy is merely an extension of the Hokage's Will (something which J will back up since he has enough political knowledge to come up with that explanation for the obligatry Verbal Kage Battle Royal even without us having to communicate it).

And let's be honest, isn't helping others what Team Uplift is trying to do anyway? We didn't just help our immediate allies but also showed the other nations' teams we are trustworthy wrt to trading.

 

[faflec]

And let's be honest, isn't helping others what Team Uplift is trying to do anyway? We didn't just help our immediate allies but also showed the other nations' teams we are trustworthy wrt to trading.

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Which will be spun as us covering our asses to keep Mist from voiding the strategy.

Edit: Other villages will spin it this way, not Leaf.

 

[Cariyaga]

Which will be spun as us covering our asses to keep Mist from voiding the strategy.

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It can always be both.