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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Kei can't make original plans. If she didn't mention it it's because she didn't think of it. If she thought it wouldn't work, my model of her would have said so.


@eaglejarl based on the team's estimates, how many ninja are taking the exam?
 
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Kiba said:
Some ideas:

Have Hazō make the seal in front of the proctor and infuse it, despite his huge reservation.
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...This could work, actually.

First, ask the proctor how long he thinks it takes someone to learn to make a new seal.

Then, demonstrate that Hazou has learned to make the seal as a way of demonstrating his competence.

Finally, suggest he get word out that they're fucked.

e:

...what's the odds that one of the proctors is a sealmaster? Maybe if we poke at enough of them...?
 
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The thing I'm driving at is that we might not actually have to worry about 20'000 seals. Each one takes 5-10CP (let's say 7.5 for the maths), and each genin is going to have between 100 and 200 (let's say 150) CP per 8 hrs, barring outliers like Noburi. That means that if each genin is spending all their chakra on activating seals (they won't), then each genin can activate 120 seals over the entire exam.

That makes, uhhh *scribble scribble scribble* 900 5400 seals theoretical limit from Leaf alone, and Leaf is a larger village, so will be sending more genin. If we assume the other major villages sent as many as Leaf, then that's 4'500 27'000 max from the major villages. Don't know how the minor villages factor in, which is why I asked for numbers, but the upper limit may indeed be under half our original estimate.

Which is still a fucking catastrophe waiting to happen as soon as a genin drops their seal in the water, or hits one with a jutsu and suddenly the swamp is full of Blade People, in turn increasing the chance of other failures as genin try to fight them off, starting a lovecraftian chain reaction, BUT! We should still be correct about the numbers.

EDIT: maths, and the danger is worse than I initially projected.
 
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eaglejarl said:
I have personally counted fifty different proctors thus far and there are more that I have not managed to distinguish. Most of them, however, will need to remain around the perimeter of the swamp to catch anyone attempting to leave. The swamp is roughly a hundred square miles, and you don't want the proctors too near one another, so it would make sense to have about twenty or twenty-five giving out seals.
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If it's ~50 proctors and all of them are minimum chunnin then there is likely a sealing apprentice or sealmaster among them, we could ask one of the perimeter proctors to talk to them because:

-) We are talking to one of the perimeter proctors, so we are not trying to use some trick to get seals
-) We have a legitimate security concern that could kill fellow genin (including mist one)
-) If a genin from another village is killed then Mist get's pulled into shit
-) All we want is a proper second opinion from someone who actually knows something about seals

We could find Jiraiya by sending our stealth pangolin to locate a Leaf ANBU/Ninja, maybe start at the Barracks? Also it's night, maybe just have her walk to the Kurosawa compund and ask Aunt Ren.

Maybe someone is sabotaging Mist ? After all this sounds like a good way to fuck up international politics (*cough* Tobi/Oro-chan)

Or maybe said Seal is influenced by the level of the sealmaster, if infused by someone with ~50 dice it's absolutely safe?
 
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Honestly, this is a situation in which hedging our bets is pretty effective. We can do all of the following:
  • Find and talk to a Proctor
  • Send Panache out to let Leaf know what's going on
  • Send a message via Pangolin envoy
With little time constraints. The only one that'd take time is finding a proctor, but it could take a fair bit of time to find one that'll listen.
 
Cariyaga said:
I'd love to if I knew the number of ninja, and how many sealing students there were. Even a properly-trained sealing student (~10 sealing) could tell something was fucky with this from what Hazou's said.
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That's why you do a Fermi Estimate and mine happened to be right on the ball.

There are only about 50 sealmasters in Leaf. I used 1500 as a reasonable figure for Leaf ninja. The number of ninja for MIst is likely to be smaller, and correspondingly less sealmasters, but assuming the ratio is correct...

So, between 1 or 2 out of 50 proctors are likely to be sealmasters, which means you have to basically MEET all of them to find one of them.
 
Kiba said:
That's why you do a Fermi Estimate and mine happened to be right on the ball.

There are only about 50 sealmasters in Leaf. I used 1500 as a reasonable figure for Leaf ninja. The number of ninja for MIst is likely to be smaller, and correspondingly less sealmasters, but assuming the ratio is correct...

So, between 1 or 2 out of 50 proctors are likely to be sealmasters, which means you have to basically MEET all of them to find one of them.
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eaglejarl said:
  • It has the largest shinobi population in the Elemental Nations; the Mist intelligence department puts it at 1k to 1.5k, with the best estimate being around 1200 or 1300
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Kiba said:
That's why you do a Fermi Estimate and mine happened to be right on the ball.

There are only about 50 sealmasters in Leaf. I used 1500 as a reasonable figure for Leaf ninja. The number of ninja for MIst is likely to be smaller, and correspondingly less sealmasters, but assuming the ratio is correct...

So, between 1 or 2 out of 50 proctors are likely to be sealmasters, which means you have to basically MEET all of them to find one of them.
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As far as I'm aware, that 30 to 50 numbers is for sealmasters capable of doing independent research, though (I think?) -- that's not necessarily what we need.
 
Cariyaga said:
As far as I'm aware, that 30 to 50 numbers is for sealmasters capable of doing independent research, though (I think?) -- that's not necessarily what we need.
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Pretty sure that include almost all students except very novice sealmasters(anybody who could infuse an explosive seal).

OliWhail said:
There are about 50 sealsmiths in Leaf, which includes students senior enough to be trusted with basic tasks like explosive tags. Each of them is required to contribute 100 explosive seals to the military per week as a simple tax (about a day's worth of production).
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Using the total pop of 1500 ninja, I derived 3%, which I applied to mist regardless of pop number. It could be as high as 5% if I assumed the pop of 1000, but that's 1/20 out of every proctor.

Suffice to say, we are unlikely to encounter a proctor, even with the best odds, who knows seals.
 
Cariyaga said:
Ah, okay. Well, so we have an appreciable chance of finding a proctor, but not GOOD.
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If you are so set on this route, ask the proctors at the edge of the Swamp and not the ones handing out the seals. Any sealmaster worth his salt would at least give the seals a cursory look before handing them out so it is unlikely that there is one in that group (or s/he is incredibly stupid and not worth relying on to begin with).
 
Keep in mind that the estimate is relying on a LOT of assumption that isn't necessarily true, only that it seemed 'reasonable'. Plug in different assumption you'll get different numbers. Hence, 3-5%.

But in this particular instance, I managed to get the right number.
 
Present questions in the QuINOA:

Does Leaf have a Morse Code equivalent?


Had a weird inkling and decided to check the math; this only works out to ~4000 seals if Night Light seals take 5 minutes to make, not 1. I guess Keiko didn't get the memo? How would she update her predictions if we told her?


Will J be checking in with the Pangolin envoy?
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Are there any other that need answered?
 
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