WE need to figure out how good Minami is at Tac Move and if she would be capable of carrying Noburi while doing so; this is one of the few ways we can consistently take down jounins in combination with Vampiric Dew and Skywalkers, demeaning though it may be to them both.
 
We need to give Mari a hug before we leave.

Holy fuck yes. We know a good bit about Mari's psyche and her self sacrificing nature.

She's going to hate being home doing safe social work when her kids are out in danger. She's more than capable of dealing with it, but showing some affection and impressing upon her the importance of the work she's doing (We have a home now, and this is neccesary to keep it from falling apart. It's not as obvious how important it is and it'll take longer for the benefits to play out, but it is very important.)

Oh, we also need to know abort criterion. When is it okay for us to abort mission?

Also, you know I can't wait to what Jiraiya and Mari's kid is like when they're the age we are now. Especially, with us, Jiraiya, Kagome, Naruto, and Inoue as major influences.
 
The sound of a wasn't-there-when-they-moved-in deadbolt being withdrawn came faintly through the door. And then another one. And another. And another. And anoth—okay, seriously, what the fuck?

Jiraiya stepped inside and looked around. The very comfortable bed that had been here was gone and a woodsman's bedroll was rolled up in the corner. The rest of the furniture had also been removed, as had the carpet. Holes had been chopped through the floorboards in several places to provide space for waist-high red granite walls. A taller wall blocked off the window; the only light came from a trio of oil lanterns, each with a Purifier pointed at it get rid of the smoke. The granite walls and walls of the room were covered in tags, as were the floor and even the damn ceiling. He didn't recognize the designs off the bat but they were clearly not intended to provide a friendly welcome full of sparkly strawberries.

"I love what you've done with the place," Jiraiya said, trying and failing to keep a trace of snark out of his voice. "Very survivalist chic."

:rofl:

How long has Kagome been at this? A day? An hour or two? Most confess I am somewhat surprised at there not being concentric rings of death yet.

Kagome looked around...guiltily? Really? Well, maybe that was a good sign.

"It's more comfortable like this," he mumbled.

:cry:

Jiraiya allowed a little of his frustration to seep onto his face, but he didn't stand up. "Kagome, in a few days we're going to be clan," he reminded the paranoid obsessive-compulsive obnoxious stupid ill-mannered...no, no, the very careful and socially disconnected colleague. "I will be the head of that clan, and it is my job to protect you and the rest of the team. You may not trust me yet—hells, you might not like me—but I really am on your side. Please help me protect the others."

I am telling myself that the only reason Jiraiya doesn't like Kagome yet is because he hasn't had a chance to get to know him.

Who am I kidding. I am obviously lying to myself. *sighs*

...This may be a problem.

"Half a second to two minutes. Or you can set them for proximity detonation. Good for securing the perimeter. Automatically deactivates after twelve hours in case you need to move them."

Oooh, neat. I didn't know they could do that. I am thinking we should get Kagome to create two simpler seals, one with just the proximity detection and one that just toggles on and off periodically. Once we learn those, we can apply those abilities to other seals.

"Nice." He tossed the tags into his tote and stood up, extending a hand to the ver—to his clan member and colleague. "Thanks, Kagome. These will help." A thought occurred. "I'm not leaving you unsupplied, right?"

Kagome looked at him as though he were the stupidest child in the class. "Like I'd give you my whole supply. Stinking idiot."

...Huh. I wonder where Kagome keeps all of these seals? I mean, obviously he wouldn't give away his whole supply, but I would be surprised if he even gave away a tenth of his supply. You would think we would notice things like dozens of bags of seals being lugged about when we traveled, though.

At the word 'Jiraiya' Mari-sensei casually scratched the back of her hand in the intra-team code for danger; avoid subject.

Oh shit.

Once they were screened from the path, Mari allowed her henge to dissolve and stood revealed in all her tiny, fire-haired glory. "Hello again, Collie," she said with a wide smile and open arms.

Akane's eyes went wide and she surged forward, returning the hug fiercely before picking Mari up and whirling her around in glee. The girl was insanely strong now, and most of the breath whooshed out of Mari's lungs, but she found herself laughing anyway. Gods, how she had missed the girl!

D'aww.

Akane chuckled. "Yes, Ino came to see me. She seems nice enough. She dragged me out shopping a couple of times, and even took me to places I could afford. I've been training with Gai-sensei and, um, Lee." She looked down at the name, a bright-red flush spreading up her face.

PREPARE THE SHIPPING CHARTS

"EVERYBODY OUT! MOVE IT!" The bellow from outside the windows was backed up with a massive wave of killing intent that hit like a slap from a demon god.

Oh no. Nononononono. Noooooo. :(

The rest of the team was there within seconds of him; Keiko had kunai in both hands, Noburi was already summoning his Water Whip, and Kagome-sensei had chosen to blow a hole in the wall between his room and the common room instead of spending the time to disarm his traps so he could go through the door. No one was surprised; the sealmaster had been very clear about his intentions, to the point of chalking a 'door' on the wall when they first arrived so that everyone would know where not to stand.

Oh, Kagome.

Er, wait. What's the point of all the defenses if you can just knock down a wall and get in? *boggles* I guess it really is just like a security blanket for him. A security blanket made of explosions and death.

Jiraiya started to turn away, then stopped and pointed at Kagome. "You. Listen closely: You are fucking safe while you are with me. If anyone threatens any of you I will fucking burn his face off and piss on the ashes. We are going to become a clan right the fuck now, so don't screw it up. Don't talk unless I tell you to, don't threaten anyone, keep your hands in your godsdamned pockets. I am all out of fucks to give about anything at all, so don't screw with me right now. Got it?"

...

Holy crap. I fucking love Jiraiya.

...Also: HOLY FUCKING SHIT ITS STARTED

Kagome studied him for a moment, then put his hands in his pockets and nodded. "Got it."

D'awwwwwww.

"It's my job. The only way I can honor him."

Isobe plays the pronoun game so we have to guess who "he is". Ding.

Er, wait.

"Honor the hat," Isobe said. The words had a steel behind them that civilians rarely dared use toward ninja. "That's all I ask."

Okay, so he's talking about the Hokage obviously. But that's still an odd expression to use.

Hyūga's face suffused with anger, but one of the other clan heads jumped in before he could say anything. One of only two women at the table, she was medium height with spikey brown hair, a narrow face, and dressed in field uniform. "What do you think you're doing there, Jiraiya?" she demanded, pointing at the chair. "Where is the Hokage? And who are those people?" She pointed accusingly at Hazō and the others where they stood against the wall.

Oh, fuck no. ...Fuuuuuck. Hiruzen is dead, isn't he? Holy shit. Hooooly shit.

At least Jiraiya will be Hokage now? I think so, considering Isobe's remarks. Makes much more sense now.

"The force that I brought with me consisted primarily of ANBU agents. Ox." From the pack he produced a storage scroll with the character 'Ox' brushed on the outside and the two black stripes on the ends that marked a scroll containing a dead body. He set the scroll down and reached inside the pack again. "Bull." Another scroll. "Hawk." Another scroll. "Ocelot." Another. "Crane. Wolf. Cat. Bear. Mamba. Tiger. Panda." The names came faster, the scrolls laid down with more force. The faces of the clan heads had grown pale.

"And, finally...." Jiraiya stopped, taking a deep breath before pulling out one more scroll. He dropped his pack to the floor before laying the final scroll down with tender care. "Finally, Sarutobi Hiruzen, the Third Hokage."

"What?!" "No!" "That's imposs—"

Jiraiya punched a sparking ball of lightning straight through the conference table, sending splinters everywhere and shocking the clan heads into silence.

"I am pretty sure I said 'no interruptions.'"

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Also, that desk was totally not a face. Got off lucky, there.

...Wait, do the clan heads know who the ANBU are?

"Thank you," Jiraiya said, nodding to Nara and then to the other leaders. "It gets worse.

IT GETS WORSE

"It was at this point that we were attacked by a third group. They were all flying, most of them on what looked like dragons made of clay. They had the sun behind them, so we didn't see them coming until they were on top of us. They wore a uniform—black cloaks with red clouds—suggesting that they were an organized group and not a collection of individuals put together for this mission."

WHAT

WHAT

NO!

Fuck.

Okay. *breathes* So Leaf's most secure information channels are compromised. ...Or were they just there for Naruto too? Maybe still some hope.

...Also, Leaf did not know about Akatsuki at all. This is most troublesome.

"Whoever the man with Uchiha was, he gestured—no hand seals, just a wave—and one of Naruto's clones came flying into the air, right into this man's hands. Uchiha used what I presume was some sort of genjutsu, then stabbed the clone to pop it. All of Naruto's clones immediately popped and the actual Naruto fell to the ground screaming."

Almost looked over this. So this pretty much confirms that Shadow Clones work like they do in canon. A clone got Tsukuyomi'd, and when it popped the experiences went instantly to Naruto, thus causing his reaction and the clones to pop.

"Meanwhile, I was being attacked by a woman made of explosive tags and a puppet-user, both of whom I estimate to be S-rank like the others. These two kept me busy long enough that Itachi and his partner were able to scoop up Naruto and the two attacking Yagura were able to capture him. I wounded both of my opponents, but they retreated with their companions before I could finish them. I could have pursued using the skywalkers, but I knew I couldn't take on the entire group.

So Mist is a nonentity at the moment, but may or may not have knowledge of Skywalkers depending on if they had someone on the fringes who observed but didn't engage.

Akatsuki now know about Skywalkers, and might even have some if Naruto was equipped with them. Sure, they have the clay dragon thingies already from Deidara, but Skywalkers are definitely superior, still. We should consider them compromised.

...How much of the team's family is dead?

For the first time, Nara sat up in his chair, his gaze sharpening as he looked around the table "Make no mistake," he said. "We face an existential threat to Leaf. When—not if, when—word gets out that our Hokage and ANBU were slaughtered and our jinchūriki taken, Leaf will be the laughingstock of the Elemental Nations. Leaf is powerful, but the perception of our power was based in large part on the knowledge that we controlled the Nine Tails and that our leader was the God of Shinobi. Sarutobi was respected and feared throughout the Nations. He was both charismatic and wise; our favored trading status with River is based in large part on personal relationships that he built. With him gone there will be a great deal of uncertainty as people wait to see who the new regime will be and if we will have a smooth transition of power or if we will break down into petty squabbling." He shot pointed looks back and forth between Jiraiya and Hyūga; both men had the self-awareness to look away. Nara paused to make sure that he'd driven the point home, then continued.

And there goes Shikaku keeping shit together.

With the Council's sudden desire to be helpful it took just under nine minutes to grant citizenship and full pardons to a group of missing-nin, get the Hokage married, and form a clan.

Whelp, got what we wanted. Was it worth it?

..Fuck. Don't answer that.

"So, here's the deal. I need these messages delivered to agents in my network, and I need it done as fast as humanly possible. Try not to blow their cover, but I care more about speed than secrecy right now. At each stop pass off the message scroll to the senior agent on site and check if they have messages to add to the stack or if they need short-term muscle. You are not, I say again not, under their orders. You will make your own judgements about what jobs to assist with and what order to deliver messages in, although I want you to start off heading southwest towards River and then go clockwise around the EN.

"Minami, you have formal command. I will note that you are taking over what is already a skilled and tight-knit squad. They each have their specialties, and I strongly suggest you listen to them. In particular, Keiko's bloodline makes her an analytical genius on the order of the Nara. Factor that in when you're making plans. Hazō here is young and inexperienced but terrifyingly creative. Kagome is an expert at security systems and reducing things to a fine red mist. Noburi and Ishihara are both excellent diplomats, albeit in different ways, and I encourage you to make use of them in that role. In addition, Noburi's bloodline allows him to transfer chakra by way of the water in his barrel. Make use of that to increase the team's endurance.

"You can have two hours to gather your gear, read each other in on your abilities, and do whatever prep you need, but you will leave tonight. All the codes and recognition signs you'll need are in the packet." He turned to Akane. "Ishihara, your parents can be told that you're in the field for a few weeks. You are not to tell them anything else about this situation. Understood?"

"Yes, sir!"

"Good. Any questions?" He paused while the team looked back and forth uncertainly. "Okay, good. Get out of here."

Well, then. This will be interesting.

@eaglejarl, this was one hell of an update. Was a pleasure to read (and re-read), and was an absolute rollercoaster.

But damn. I was not expecting the shit to hit the fan so soon, or for the "war" with Mist to literally be over in a single engagement. The world just plunged into chaos while we were preoccupied with writing love letters. My head is still spinning.

...

Er, ...huh. But is the war over, really? We know that Mist's forces were obliterated, but what if they did have someone else backing them (e.g. - Orochimaru)? They aren't gone, and Leaf just took a big hit. To say nothing of course of the Akatsuki, and of course everyone else is going to be looking for any signs of weakness.

We've got our work cut out for us, at any rate.
 
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Oh, we also need to recquisition supplies for all the variants of macerators we thought up. We're not going to be able to easily produce white-hot iron but we could get it while in Leaf.
 
Akatsuki is nowhere near here, as far as we know. Impersonator!Jiraiya is our potential immediate enemy; if we see a way to confirm or disprove him, it probably would be a good idea to do it, as long as it doesn't cost us much.

I would point out that any impersonator is going to be much stronger than us. If they fail the test, we will die. They'll have to put in effort to cover it up, but killing us is a much better option than letting us live.

There is a tiny chance it's an impersonator (by my estimate), but no outcome of running the test is good. If he's real, then we'll have wasted time, shown disrespect, and pissed him off when his (effective) father was killed and his godson was kidnapped or killed. If he's not real, then he has no choice but to kill us if we even ask for a test he can't pass.

Of all the universes in which we survive Jiraiya, or the impersonator, passes the test. So once you factor in that our primary goal as an agent is to not be dead it's a useless test.

And even if we magically knew he was an impersonator and survived, what the fuck are we going to do about it?
 
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I see you weren't joking at all about that.

*ups priority of "reread everything"*

Holy hell.
So, interpreting it through the lens of Kagome's story, the Sage changed bodies; now he is Jiraiya.
Alternatively, Akatsuki or the bijuu succeed in killing him. Admittedly, it doesn't seem to line up very well.

Hm. In that vein,

I don't like it. It's too smooth. Like magic indeed.
And now he sends us out of Leaf? That's really suspicious.

Also, someone starts shouting under the team's windows looking like a battered/angry Jiraiya, and we immediately believe him and follow him? Not careful at all.

This is not the time for paranoid actions that can't possibly improve our situation if Kagome's theories are true and can only worsen our positions if they aren't true.

E: Ninja'd by @Jello_Raptor
 
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Seriously, Kagome is not a benevolent angel (the philosophy name for the thing comp-sci calls an oracle). He's a paranoid but intelligent human being.

And tons of smart people in our world believe in stupid shit.
 
[X] Action Plan: Training Action Training Plan Action Training Plan Plan Plan: Lore Update
 
Oh, we also need to recquisition supplies for all the variants of macerators we thought up. We're not going to be able to easily produce white-hot iron but we could get it while in Leaf.

Don't forget our B-rank "justu", the firebomb.
Er, ...huh. But is the war over, really? We know that Mist's forces were obliterated, but what if they did have someone else backing them (e.g. - Orochimaru)? They aren't gone, and Leaf just took a big hit. To say nothing of course of the Akatsuki, and of course everyone else is going to be looking for any signs of weakness.

We've got our work cut out for us, at any rate.

It is a decisive battle. Mist for all intent and purpose lost. Leaf got badly mauled, but they still have Tsundae and Jiraiya of the Three if needed, and their whole force can fly once the skywalker seals are mass produced.
 
I see you weren't joking at all about that.

*ups priority of "reread everything"*

I will note that @eaglejarl does not lie in this thread. My model of him would believe that lying as a GM is somewhere between being a poor sport and actively detrimental to the notion of a rational quest.

That said, the asshole is more than willing to say very misleading things that are technically true.

You have to treat every post of his in this thread (outside of story posts) as a dickish literal genie. Only the direct statements he's making count.

None of the things he implies or indirectly hints at are sure to be true, in fact, given that he's a huge troll, there's a negative penalty to the probability of any statement that's strongly implied but not directly spelled out.

Problem is, he knows that we know this, so he's going to mix in some truths to fuck with us. I still think there should be slight negative penalty simply because I expect there to be a reasonable proportion of times where he just can't help himself and will troll. Even if the game-theoretically sound strategy is to flip a coin to decide whether he's going to troll or not on any given thing he wants to imply.
 
I would point out that any impersonator is going to be much stronger than us. If they fail the test, we will die. They'll have to put in effort to cover it up, but killing us is a much better option than letting us live.
Not a hard pass-or-fail test, then. Something to increase/decrease the probability. As example, he could wave off talking about sealing by saying he is very tired, or he could talk after all and so confirm his legitimacy.

But fine, I concur that it would probably not give us much actionable information, since it would only maybe check a small region of the possibilty space which depends on the assumption that Kagome is correct about the Sage.
 
Which [things that hampered smallpox eradication IRL that get ninja-bullshitted away] in particular?

Dojutsu gives medical scanning that is, in some salient dimensions, superior to current scanning techniques as I understand them. This is enough to falsify many, perhaps all, pre-germ theories of disease.

Humorism, for instance, falls down the moment a Hyuga looks at a smallpox victim and notices that the humors aren't out of whack.

Quoting from Angel of Death (Gareth Williams):

Rhazes from Baghdad [(854 CE – 925 CE)] developed a different theory about the cause of diseases such as smallpox. He believed that everyone was born with latent diseases in the blood and when a particular 'contagion' built up to a critical level it was expelled by the body through the appropriate route – the gut (diarrhoea), lungs (coughing up phlegm) or skin (an eruption). Smallpox was therefore a natural process; if the victim died, it was because the process of elimination had not been successful.

Byakugan tells us that individuals who get sick didn't have 'contagion' levels any different from individuals who didn't get sick immediately before becoming sick.

(Williams describes Rhazes's teachings as "hugely influential" and echoed by Thomas Sydenham in the 17th century, whose views were repeated for another 200 years.)

I am unsure of the effects on miasma theory, which appears to be the remaining pre-germ contender. I am unclear on the relevant mechanics of Usamatsu's Glorious Life-Saving Purifier, but I can totally imagine it being used to "purify" "night air", getting destroyed, and nothing comes rushing out. Ergo, night air isn't different from non-night-air, isn't disease-causing. Or maybe ninja do a lot of night ops because, you know, they're ninja, and yet they don't get sick ever (because they're in peak physical condition). Or maybe someone tried sealing "night air" for biological warfare (you know they would have) and then it was 0% effective.
 
Don't forget our B-rank "justu", the firebomb
All it requires is a log and possibly oil.

...Would the firebomb produce hot enough flames to turn sand to glass? Stick a container of sand in macerator, too, turn macerators into a war crime. Mix with literal shit if you really wanna fuck people up.

e:
On that note: combine firebomb with misterator for, hopefully, mist hot enough to be impassible
 
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Restating a few points I mentioned in my reaction post:
  • Leaf's most secure communications are possibly compromised. Not 100%, as the Akatsuki could have just been there for Naruto, but there is a strong possibility they knew exactly what was happening.
  • Leaf has no intel on the Akatsuki.
  • Shadow Clones and Tsukuyomi seem to work mostly like they do in canon.
  • Naruto has probably been effectively using Shadow Clones for a while now. In canon, once he did that he leveled up to godmode in the span of a month.
  • Mist is a nonentity and many of the team's family may have been killed already. While I'm all for trying, Hazou might not have a mom to save.
  • Skywalkers should be considered compromised.
    • Mist may possibly (but unlikely) be able to reverse engineer them if anyone actually managed to survive, or if they had anyone observing the fight who got away. Even if they can't reverse engineer them, if anyone lived then we can assume they will at least work on counters and possibly make the knowledge public.
    • Akatsuki may have a working set from Naruto. It's pretty inconsequential in the grand scheme considering who they are and what firepower they're already rocking, but they definitely know we have them. At the very least, we can assume they will devise counters.
 
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Restating a few points I mentioned in my reaction post:
  • Leaf's most secure communications are possibly compromised. Not 100%, as the Akatsuki could have just been there for Naruto, but there is a strong possibility they knew exactly what was happening.
It could be Mist's intel compromised too. Or both.
 
Also: Danzo/Root confirmed to not exist in MFD. Or he just didn't feel like getting out of bed. There was no Danzo-shaped hole in this story.

Either that or he is in league with the Akatsuki and we'll come back to a Leaf that has been usurped.
 
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Not a hard pass-or-fail test, then. Something to increase/decrease the probability. As example, he could wave off talking about sealing by saying he is very tired, or he could talk after all and so confirm his legitimacy.

But fine, I concur that it would probably not give us much actionable information, since it would only maybe check a small region of the possibilty space which depends on the assumption that Kagome is correct about the Sage.

The dude is suddenly the leader of a major nation after his primary father figure died. Imagine you became president right after your parents were murdered. There's no way he's not got a dozen better things to do. There's no way he's not pushing himself despite everything because despite how he feels, he needs to hold a damn country together.

The amount of evidence we'd get from that test is so negligible as to be not worth it.

For me to subscribe to any test:
  1. It has to leave our relationships intact if it's the real Jiraiya.
  2. We have to be able to survive finding out that Jiraiya is an impostor.
  3. Having the information, or a more accurate belief, has to lead to some change in our actions that actually benefits us.
Not only do you have to give me a test that is safe(ish) in either outcome, you also have to tell me how we'd use that information to our benefit. Tell me how a slight change in the estimate we make will make us more likely to meet our goals, how would our actions change?

Keep in mind that humans are shit at probability. People are still griping about Nate Silver giving Hillary a 70% chance of winning. As if a 70% chance of willing is not also a 30% chance of losing.

I know this is a rationalist crowd but even we suck at this shit (With myself very explicitly included.) So you're going to have to have a damn good argument that meets my criteria above, with enough safety margin that we're likely to end up better off despite the errors and incorrect estimates we will inevitably make.
 
Pretty much the only test I can think of that would meet my criterion is dispelling, in case we're in some weird genjutsu or a genjutsu is manipulating our mental state.
 
  • Leaf's most secure communications are possibly compromised. Not 100%, as the Akatsuki could have just been there for Naruto, but there is a strong possibility they knew exactly what was happening.

Leaf deliberately leaked information about Naruto so that they could bait Mist into an attack. There's a fuckton of places for that information to get to Akatsuki.

I mean, they probably do have infiltrators or some way to gather secret internal information. But there's no reason they couldn't have learned of it from a dozen other sources.

Also, someone who's playing at level 2 can easily figure out the probable ploy from just the bait and some context. Hell Mist probably did too and decided to spring the trap anyway because they thought they could win.
 
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Don't we have SOP to dispel at random intervals?

Do you think the @QMs remember to take that into account in their models? They are only human and we have enough SOPs to fill a field manual. I don't think it's something they do unless we explicitly ask for it in our plans, and our plans stopped mentioning those SOPs a while ago.

Edit: @Velorien and @eaglejarl marked this insightful.
 
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We should ask J if he has any faster way to contact him than yelling at Leaf border-nin. If we find Orochimaru, or somehow figure out where Naruto is, that's something he'll need to know ASAP

Do you think the @QMs remember to take that into account in their models? They are only human and we have enough SOPs to fill a field manual. I don't think it's something they do unless we explicitly ask for it in our plans, and our plans stopped mentioning those SOPs a while ago.
We need to make a list of SOPs.
 
We need to make a list of SOPs.

List of SOPs would be useful for us as plan writers, but if we just start linking it in every plan the QMs will start ignoring that too.

What we should do is only link the specific bits of each SOP that are relevant to a particular plan. That way the QMs might actually read them and incorporate them into their plotting.
 
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