Something I threw together yesterday/today:
Now that we know the rules for how mastering a seal works in FtD, I wanted to try and optimize. See, our Shadow Clones don't have Iron Nerve, so they don't get our auto-success on drawing seal blanks, and that means if we want to reliably churn out tons of seals with our shadow clones (if we can make 10 clones and send them to make seals for 3h then we get
360 seal elements when they're done) then they need to master drawing the seal blanks themselves.
Mastering a seal is a number's game. The odds of failing an individual seal is low, but if you throw the dice enough times you'll get snakeeyes sooner or later. And since it takes 50 successes to reduce the TN by 1, we're throwing the dice a
lot of times before it's fully mastered.
All is not lost, however, since you can stack the deck in your favour, with a little work. We have a few things we can do to increase the odds of successfully grinding the seals:
- Be Careful when scribing (+1 AB, +5m)
- Verify the seal (second calligraphy check, +1h)
- Careful verification (second calligraphy check at +1 AB, +3h)
Naturally these all take extra time, and are thus suboptimal for full production rates, but can increase our odds of mastering a seal without any sealing failures dramatically.
The spreadsheet linked above goes into much more detail, calculating exact odds of mastery without hitting a sealing failure, and how long it is likely to take to grind that seal to mastery.
Q: Why do we want to do this? Can't we just use Hazou Prime with Iron Nerve up?
A: For seals we only need a small quantity of, Hazou Prime is sufficient. For seals we want to make thousands of, dedicating a dozen Shadow Clones to the task would be very efficient.
Q: How do we know where we are on the chart?
A: There's no way to be sure (though I suspect I could put together a mechanism that estimates our current position based on number of found failures), so the primary utility of this sheet right now is to inform our
general strategy from a position of not knowing exactly where we land on the chart. How much time do we want to sink into mastering this seal, compared against the increased odds of success for specific TNs, that sort of question is for you to decide with the help of the chart.