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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Sir Stompy said:
I don't think Pantsaa needs backers. This is a perk of being a Clan Boss. He is basically a god on territory he has claimed. If he fought the entire Pangolin military on his own, he might win. He needs other people to fight offensively, but defensively he's basically untouchable.
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Interesting point.

I don't think that means "he doesn't need backers" even if it's true, though. He wants to accomplish geopolitical goals, and as you've pointed out, he does need other people to fight offensively. That gives these "other people" power over what he wants. If they all go "malicious compliance" at him, that would greatly harm his agenda; he needs to buy their cooperation.

In addition, other Clans backed by Bosses invading his area definitely stand a chance at killing him (see: Conjura, another Boss, having to flee instead of just slaughtering all invaders). So that gives non-Pantsaa pangolins material power over him as well: they may just open a corridor for Conjura to slay him if he pisses them off too much.
 
Noumero said:
I don't think that means "he doesn't need backers" even if it's true, though. He wants to accomplish geopolitical goals, and as you've pointed out, he does need other people to fight offensively. That gives these "other people" power over what he wants. If they all go "malicious compliance" at him, that would greatly harm his agenda; he needs to buy their cooperation
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Yes he does, and they do matter. I do not disagree, but they are not essential he does not absolutely depend on those people.

This is very unlike a human dictator, who has military strength only in the sense that people will follow his orders.

This means that while human dictators must depend on many many keys, Clan Bosses need very few if any.

When push comes to shove, we have to assume Pantsaa's first priority is going to be himself and his longevity. He won't compromise and agree to die so that his successor can more easily fight an offensive war.
Noumero said:
In addition, other Clans backed by Bosses invading his area definitely stand a chance at killing him (see: Conjura, another Boss, having to flee instead of just slaughtering all invaders). So that gives non-Pantsaa pangolins material power over him as well: they may just open a corridor for Conjura to slay him if he pisses them off too much
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Conjura fleeing is a point against my argument, but I believe the consensus in the thread is that she was unwilling to fight largely because the Pangs held hostages against her.

I do not believe Pantsaa will feel himself so constrained.
 
It's worth mentioning that Cannai somehow challenged the previous Dog Boss and became the current Dog Boss. Presumably there are mechanisms in place to prevent a Boss from becoming a genuine Godking.
 
Sir Stompy said:
Yes he does, and they do matter. I do not disagree, but they are not essential he does not absolutely depend on those people.

This is very unlike a human dictator, who has military strength only in the sense that people will follow his orders.

This means that while human dictators must depend on many many keys, Clan Bosses need very few if any.

When push comes to shove, we have to assume Pantsaa's first priority is going to be himself and his longevity. He won't compromise and agree to die so that his successor can more easily fight an offensive war.
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... Solid points. Alright, add "how unassailable are the Bosses?" to the list of questions.
Conjura fleeing is a point against my argument, but I believe the consensus in the thread is that she was unwilling to fight largely because the Pangs held hostages against her.
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Man, if that's true, that's such an illustrative example of what bad decision theory does to you.
RandomOTP said:
It's worth mentioning that Cannai somehow challenged the previous Dog Boss and became the current Dog Boss. Presumably there are mechanisms in place to prevent a Boss from becoming a genuine Godking.
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On Nezala's theory that the Seventh Path is meant to be a paradise, yeah, I'd expect there to be metaphysical mechanisms to disempower a Boss gone rogue. An opportunity to see if her explanation has predictive power!
 
We can try reaching out to Cannai and Enma to figure out the viability of taking out a clan boss inside his own territory. Another thing that would be useful would be knowledge of past clan bosses being overthrown. It must have happened at some point in the past, right? A majority of 7th Path denizens become disaffected with their clan boss and overthrow him, be it through peaceful or violent means.

Kei should try and figure out if there is some pangolin underclass that would be sympathetic to a positive change in leadership, as well as a suitable replacement for Pantsaa. There's no way all pangolins are warmongering bigots, and we can't just overthrow him and risk having someone who shares his views take power.
 
CaramilkThief said:
@Paperclipped

Now that Kagome has up to Minato seal 7, can we get more detailed explanations of what the seals (especially MS7, which is noted to have possible mednin uses) do and their exact limits?
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Mechanically, they provide a modest bonus to Alertness (non-initiative)/Examination when detecting something with chakra. Narratively, they do this by absorbing ambient environmental chakra to "build" a sensor.

Here's a list of questions:
  1. What did Minato mean by that note?
  2. Is it nature chakra that is being gathered or Human Path chakra?
  3. What are the ranges on the seals?
  4. When the seal sucks in ambient/environmental chakra, can Hazou or Kagome feel anything happen?
  5. Is it sucking in chakra from his chakra network or just chakra inside of air/dirt/objects? Is there a decrease in the amount of chakra nearby and therefore chakra regeneration rates?
  6. Do we know roughly how much chakra it actually gathers? (in CP amounts or relative to jutsu usage)
  7. Can the gathered chakra be interacted with?
  8. Can it be contained in a Wakahisa barrel?
  9. What do the displays actually show?
  10. Does Kagome have any better idea what MS9 and MS10 are about now that they're only one and two seals away respectively?
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  1. The note was "To do - ask Rin about med nin uses?". Hazou thinks this means that Minato wanted to ask someone named Rin (or perhaps someone whose name abbreviates to "Rin") about the potential medical ninjutsu uses of the seventh chain seal. He suspects this person may have been a med-nin, or at least knowledgable in the arts. He does not know if Minato ever managed to do this.
  2. Hazou does not understand the distinction. The chakra being absorbed is just ambient, environmental chakra.
  3. They both have a similar sensing area of around a Zone.
  4. No.
  5. It isn't pulling chakra from his network. It just seems to be pulling from the air. It only pulls for a few seconds, so there's no measurable effect on regeneration rate.
  6. He has no way of knowing specifically. He is simply going off what it says in the notes. Keep in mind that 'massive amounts' could be on a ninja scale (e.g. 100 CP) or it could be on a seal-related scale (e.g. 0.1 CP); the notes do not clarify. You can hire a cheating-eyeballs stinker to give you more details if you want, but HDK what detail they will be able to provide, if any.
  7. The generated construct shows up as black markings where it intersects the seal surface. By reading the changing of the marks, the user can get a sense of how chakra in the environment is moving. By moving the seal, the construct can be "aimed" at particular places. Overall, it seems less sensitive to small, sealing-failure scope effects than Kagome's chakrascope, but better at picking up human-scale chakra expenditure (similar to chakdar).
  8. Noburi cannot drain the construct, no.
  9. Waves and ripples of ink. With some attention, Hazou can recognize that their movements correlate with nearby ninja moving around, or with jutsu being cast.
  10. Kagome knows nothing more about 9 or 10 than the original infopost had, still.
 
@Noumero Perhaps we can use the obscurity of some of Isan's lore, history, and philosophy as a weapon against the leadership similarly to how we used the Pangolins against Isan? I'm sure Keiko made a point to study up on Ui and Akio after the rather rough regime change we pulled off. We might find something in there.
 
Orisha91 said:
@Noumero Perhaps we can use the obscurity of some of Isan's lore, history, and philosophy as a weapon against the leadership similarly to how we used the Pangolins against Isan? I'm sure Keiko made a point to study up on Ui and Akio after the rather rough regime change we pulled off. We might find something in there.
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@CommunismWillWin and @Sir Stompy are mostly right that this doesn't actually buy us much in an autocracy as entrenched as Pantsaa's seems to be. (The High Priest didn't have time to entrench himself.)

Which is not to say this sort of knowledge would be useless: it'd give us information about what power-change narratives the Pangolin society would accept, and by inference, pangolins holding which positions would be natural candidates for a Pantsaa replacement.
 
Noumero said:
Man, if that's true, that's such an illustrative example of what bad decision theory does to you.
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I disagree with the thread consensus, actually. I've raised the point on Discord a couple times. IMO there must be more going on. Conjura should not be a complete idiot. But the facts seem to be

1) A Clan Boss on their home territory is roughly as strong as a Dragon. The same OOM at the very least.
2) A Clan Boss off their territory is roughly as strong as a human S-Ranker.
3) Clan Bosses can travel at speeds of hundreds of mph across their territory (Cannai transporting Hazou to the border of Dog) and are generally aware of things happening in their territory (Cannai again). This is a demonstrated capability to repel at least 4-5 assualts per day. Also Conjura is a space/time ninjutsu user. She has to be able to travel fast.
4) Conjura did not effectively resist the Pangolin invasion on the Seventh Path
5) The lack of Condor resistance (not Conjura specifically) was explained by the Wings of Freedom as due to the Pangolins taking hostages.

So either Conjura failed so hard at decision theory she let the Pangolins genocide her people or there's something else going on. My bet is something else is happening. But maybe not.
 
[X] [Conclave] Action Plan: Pacifying Pantsaa (A Hundred Years of Peace)
Word count: >300
  • Meeting
    • Meet with Kei, Mari, Noburi, Snowflake, Haru
    • Include Ami if it isn't treason, Ma and Pa if possible, Ruri if Kei signs off, and Shikamaru if Kei thinks he'd be helpful.
    • Problem: summarize Kei's Pantsaa-related concerns.
      • What is the plausible worst-case outcome?
      • What is the threat timeframe?
    • One possible approach (to discuss and sanity-check):
      • Hazou could proactively reach out to Pantsaa
        • Killing/capturing Hazou would be much more politically dangerous than doing so with his own summoner.
        • Acknowledge that we are in conflict. Don't apolgise for cutting off seals, but express that we do want to work together, and want to find a way to make this work.
      • If Conjura approves of taking Archeopteryx territory, propose the mass-relocation of Condors from their ancestral territory. sweeten the deal with offers of goods and seals(if not used to expand)
        • Frees up pangolin territory for pangolins, issuing a bunch of new breeding licenses will build support as well as allowing a population boom.
        • We're pretty happy to sell more skytowers, IFF given a promise that Pangolins will stop expanding(for, say, a century), and will keep the seals to within their current borders(no resale/expansion).
          • Pangolin has a possibly unprecedented amount of land anyways, and their neighbors are probably getting nervous. point out the need to avoid to provoking a crusade.
          • Propose that pangolin take a century to build up a newer and bigger all-pangolin empire, with skytowers to guarantee their defensive security, and a promise against further expansion to calm neighbors
            • Use this time to have many kids and let them grow to adulthood, and let the trade network and Goketsu gems(adjust OPSEC by who ends up being present) help them to grow even more rich and prosperous.
            • A new, much more connected world order is emerging on the 7th path. Between the trade network and conclave, Pangolin is in a good position to set itself up to be the center of that new world. Invest in that.
        • The Dragonwar will give Conjura a perfect chance to press for the condor's freedom anyway. Instead of being forced into it, make the Condors agree to a long-term tax for a century to be allowed to leave. This will win points from the other clans that are freaked out by Pangolin treatment of the Condors, and further the upcoming Pangolin economic boom.
    • Other approaches
      • Solicit other ideas from the group
  • The Conclave
    • Direct Noburi to talk to the Leopards
      • He can take whatever approach seems best to him, this is his time to shine.
    • (Offscreen?) Talk to the Capybara
      • Optimize with Mari/Kei
      • Get an idea of where they stand and what they think of the dragon threat
      • Bestow appropriate gifts
    • Ask Ruri if she can summon Convei and figure out why she isn't at the Conclave
    • Ask the Rats, and every non-pangolin have a summoner for(Dogs, Monkeys, Porcupines, Turtles ect) about the previous Polemarch and how Pantsaa came to power.
 
Alright, here's my questions, @Paperclipped. Sorry if that's too involved, can distill down.
  1. What is the overall structure of the Pangolin government?
  2. On what basis does Pantsaa justify his reign? Is that something the Pangolins genuinely believe in, such that if it stopped holding up, they'd want to replace him?
  3. Are there any meaningful factions? Do all of these factions claim to support Pantsaa?
  4. Are there any meaningful points of tension within the Pangolin society? The disaffected underclasses, the fringe cultural groups?
  5. What are Pantsaa's "keys to power"? Who has political power in the Pangolin society? Who are the ten most important people?
  6. Failing explicit knowledge of (5), which groups are likely to hold power in the Pangolin society? Ways to infer this:
    1. By considering the material constraints. How do the Pangolins source food/jutsu/metal/training/knowledge/cultural narratives/other crucial stuff, and control over which of those seems likely to be centralized? What's the economy like?
    2. By looking at how the gains form the Condor conquest seem to be split. Which factions/group were empowered (i. e., whom does Pantsaa want to appease)? Which were preferentially and perhaps unnaturally disempowered (i. e., whom Pantsaa deliberately wants to keep down)?
    3. By analysing history. Which factions used to hold power in the Pangolin society, throughout history? What was the Pangolin society's structure across history? What are the broad historical strokes?
    4. By analysing culture. Which positions or professions are held in high esteem?
  7. How dependent are the Pangolins on the inter-Clan interactions? Are they completely isolationist? If the other Clans, for example, became convinced that the Pangolin Clan systemically breaks oaths, would that have a meaningful impact on them at all?
  8. How powerful are the Bosses on their home turf? Drawing on known historical precedents...
    1. Are they impossible to oppose even if their entire Clan bands together against them? Or are they more like a Kage, such that several of their military elites may stand a chance against them?
    2. Can an invading Boss stand a chance against the Boss holding the territory, assuming no allies on either side? E. g., why did Conjura flee instead of slaughter all invaders?
    3. Are there metaphysical mechanisms for disempowering a Boss if the rest of the Clan becomes dissatisfied with them?
 
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Left-Hand Mutant said:
[X] [Conclave] Action Plan: Pacifying Pantsaa (A Hundred Years of Peace)
Word count: >300
  • Meeting
    • Meet with Kei, Mari, Noburi, Snowflake, Haru
    • Include Ami if it isn't treason, Ma and Pa if possible, Ruri if Kei signs off, and Shikamaru if Kei thinks he'd be helpful.
    • Problem: summarize Kei's Pantsaa-related concerns.
      • What is the plausible worst-case outcome?
      • What is the threat timeframe?
    • One possible approach (to discuss and sanity-check):
      • Hazou could proactively reach out to Pantsaa
        • Killing/capturing Hazou would be much more politically dangerous than doing so with his own summoner.
        • Acknowledge that we are in conflict. Don't apolgise for cutting off seals, but express that we do want to work together, and want to find a way to make this work.
      • If Conjura approves of taking Archeopteryx territory, propose the mass-relocation of Condors from their ancestral territory. sweeten the deal with offers of goods and seals(if not used to expand)
        • Frees up pangolin territory for pangolins, issuing a bunch of new breeding licenses will build support as well as allowing a population boom.
        • We're pretty happy to sell more skytowers, IFF given a promise that Pangolins will stop expanding(for, say, a century), and will keep the seals to within their current borders(no resale/expansion).
          • Pangolin has a possibly unprecedented amount of land anyways, and their neighbors are probably getting nervous. point out the need to avoid to provoking a crusade.
          • Propose that pangolin take a century to build up a newer and bigger all-pangolin empire, with skytowers to guarantee their defensive security, and a promise against further expansion to calm neighbors
            • Use this time to have many kids and let them grow to adulthood, and let the trade network and Goketsu gems(adjust OPSEC by who ends up being present) help them to grow even more rich and prosperous.
            • A new, much more connected world order is emerging on the 7th path. Between the trade network and conclave, Pangolin is in a good position to set itself up to be the center of that new world. Invest in that.
        • The Dragonwar will give Conjura a perfect chance to press for the condor's freedom anyway. Instead of being forced into it, make the Condors agree to a long-term tax for a century to be allowed to leave. This will win points from the other clans that are freaked out by Pangolin treatment of the Condors, and further the upcoming Pangolin economic boom.
    • Other approaches
      • Solicit other ideas from the group
  • The Conclave
    • Direct Noburi to talk to the Leopards
      • He can take whatever approach seems best to him, this is his time to shine.
    • (Offscreen?) Talk to the Capybara
      • Optimize with Mari/Kei
      • Get an idea of where they stand and what they think of the dragon threat
      • Bestow appropriate gifts
    • Ask Ruri if she can summon Convei and figure out why she isn't at the Conclave
    • Ask the Rats, and every non-pangolin have a summoner for(Dogs, Monkeys, Porcupines, Turtles ect) about the previous Polemarch and how Pantsaa came to power.
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Plan is wordy, so here is TLDR:

Discuss how to fix our relationship with Pantsaa before he kills/imprisons Kei.
Listen to everyone's assesment and ideas.
Propose our own idea: Hazou talks to Pantsaa about how to align their goals.
We offer the deal:
  • Pangolin releases Condors to resettle, in exchange for taxing them.
  • Pangolin agrees not to expand its territory for ~100 years(or whatever)
  • Goketsu resume selling skywalkers, for defensive purposes only. Also gems.
  • Pangolin take this time to consolidate, breed, ect, as the giant empty new pangolin territory allows.
"Agree to let the condors go and stop committing atrocities for a while, and you get incredibly secure borders, the time to build an all-pangolin Pangolin Clan, massive economic benefits, and the chance for a bunch of political power.
Also, you and your summoner are on the same side again! Dosen't that sound nice?"
 
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Paperclipped said:
Before we start on these, @faflec , can you remember what's been stated on the structure of Pangolin society?
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Well, there's the obvious 1984 allusions. There's a Ministry of Truth (Office of Morale) dictating what is and is not true, the whole thing is run on military hierarchy (ala Ministry of Peace), and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if there was a Ministry of Love which dealt with anyone being less-than-fanatically loyal to the regime. There's also a Office of Statutes which deals with law, which may or may not be relevant.

Pangolins get colored markings based on their role in Pangolin society, and their burrows seem to follow that as well. There's a thing Panda talked about with getting "stung by the cultural anthropology ant", no comment on that.

Also, breeding licenses. Yeah.
 
Reading this again after knowing Ami's history... well, I suppose humor is a coping mechanism.

Velorien said:
"I am not an anagraphophile," Hazō exclaimed, "whatever that is! In fact, I am willing to bet you just made that term up on the spot."

"Oh, Hazō," Ami said gently, "there's no need to be ashamed. I'm a seduction expert who's nearly out of her teens. I've seen every kink under the sun. If you think anagraphophilia's exotically depraved, then clearly you've never encountered sexual biosealing."
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eaglejarl said:
Note that this is how the update went down:

EJ: Dum de dum, the plan says the pangolins deceived them by not saying this was for conquest and that matches what's in my cheese-based brain so there's no need to roll. Dum de dum.

Update: is published

Other QMs: Hey, our brains are not made of cheese and therefore we remember that it's totally a lie. The Pangolins were very clear from the start that this was all about the conquest. There should totally have been a roll.

EJ: But, but... The plan! And my cheese-based brain!

Mountains of evidence showing that it was a lie: are provided

EJ: Oh. Yeah, should have had a roll.






More seriously, especially good arguments might provide a tag that gives you a bonus, but they won't bypass the system unless the one dealing with them has a brain made of cheese and thus forgets to use the system.

Also, a roll has been made and will be added to the update. The outcome is not revealed so this doesn't actually tell you anything.
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I think someone else has probably said this, but I haven't read the entire thread, but can't Hazou genuinely forget too without needing to use deceit? He's allowed to make mistakes and, consequently, misrepresent things that happens by accident. Since he, ostensibly, truly believed it there was no deceit to be had.

If you've never seen the sky and have been told all your life that it's green then you aren't being deceitful if you answer green to someone asking you what color the sky is, just wrong. Any tells you might have will just be screaming honesty.
 
Ipsos Custodes said:
I think someone else has probably said this, but I haven't read the entire thread, but can't Hazou genuinely forget too without needing to use deceit? He's allowed to make mistakes and, consequently, misrepresent things that happens by accident. Since he, ostensibly, truly believed it there was no deceit to be had.
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This is arguably a bad precedent, from both ends:
  • The players are not going to be happy when Hazou starts "forgetting" things like this, if it's allowed to have not only beneficial, but also deleterious effects on our plans (as is only fair).
  • The QMs are not going to be happy that the players now have an avenue of automatically passing Deceit checks if they can convincingly claim that they forgot something.
 
Conveniently, I don't think it would be an issue in this case as the plan would have been sanity checked by Kei, who is painfully aware of the Pangolins' plans for conquest and genocide before, during, and after the skytower deal.
 
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