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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Finally got caught up...

Velorien said:
Then again, the odds of Hazō actually asking her for seduction training were roughly the same as the odds of Kagome asking her to marry him.
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Y'know, provided both Hazou and Mari survive the update, we can actually vote that to happen. :p

Muer'ci said:
given Spy Guy's presence and competence I'm not so sure we can skip out on the Shady Guy, or whomever he represents
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I don't know if anyone has pointed out this possibility, but since Mari actually lost the roll, Spy Guy could have just bluffed her. Basically, he, a non-ninja, is confronting a ninja whom he had just made, and who very well realize that he had made her. His first priority would be to not get killed by this ninja in the next 30 seconds. Bluffing that they are on the same side may well be his best plan, since it's not really possible to disprove unless one is the spymaster --- but this ninja clearly isn't.

ag3112 said:
I've been reading the story for a while now, and more recently the discussion posts as well.
I noticed that often we don't know how many dice were rolled, only the outcome. Would it be useful for me to write a script that could infer the probabilities of the number of dice rolled, given the outcomes as input?
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I implemented an R function that does that a while ago, though I don't know if anyone's used it for anything.
 
Pahan said:
Finally got caught up...


Y'know, provided both Hazou and Mari survive the update, we can actually vote that to happen. :p


I don't know if anyone has pointed out this possibility, but since Mari actually lost the roll, Spy Guy could have just bluffed her. Basically, he, a non-ninja, is confronting a ninja whom he had just made, and who very well realize that he had made her. His first priority would be to not get killed by this ninja in the next 30 seconds. Bluffing that they are on the same side may well be his best plan, since it's not really possible to disprove unless one is the spymaster --- but this ninja clearly isn't.


I implemented an R function that does that a while ago, though I don't know if anyone's used it for anything.
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That's really cool! Your code/functionality is way cooler than mine. (plotting it and all, comments that actually explain wtf is being done)

"Calculating probabilities for sums of dice is a hassle, so I am ## using a Normal approximation here. It should work fine if ## prior.min > 3 or so, and definitely if prior.min > 6."
It is absolutely a hassle! (The functionality is easy to write if you don't mind it taking exponential time lol) There were definitely easier ways of doing it but since I was doing it mainly as a programming exercise I spent a lot of time getting a reasonably efficient version.
In retrospect, if I wanted to do it quickly I would use the multinomial distribution function and Bayes rule with moment generating functions. (as described here: http://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1025&context=grrj )
(instead of summing the discrete distributions)
 
On the plus side, if Akane dies we can make shipping them less creepy if Hazou resurrects her in three years or so.
 
Cariyaga said:
On the plus side, if Akane dies we can make shipping them less creepy if Hazou resurrects her in three years or so.
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Wouldn't shipping them get less creepy in a few years anyway if they both survive?

It just seems like death and resurrection are an inefficient path to less creepy shipping when just aging would do.
 
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OliWhail said:
My daily reminder that I need to learn some actual math :D
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Most of it only sounds fancy! Here's an unrequested math dump:

The multinomial function just gives the values of the numerical coefficients in expressions like (a + b + c)^n when you expand them.
Example when n = 2: (a + b + c)^2 = a^2 + b^2 + c^2 + 2ab + 2bc + 2ca, which is fairly easy to expand out and find the coefficients (1 for the squares, and 2 for the rest) but if it were the sum of 10 different terms to the 7th power it would be trickier. So you'd use the multinomial function to find them instead.
It's a generalisation of the better known binomial theorem which gives the coefficients in the expansion of (1 + x)^n

As for Bayes rule, in this case you'd use it to find P ( n dice were rolled | X is the outcome) = P ( X is the outcome | n dice were rolled) * P (n dice were rolled) / P ( X is the outcome).
Here we wish to know P ( n dice were rolled | X is the outcome), since we know X but not the number of dice.
P ( X is the outcome | n dice were rolled) is easy for n = 1, (being 1 / (number of sides) ) but is trickier for other values of n and the moment generating functions are one particular trick to find it. (as is the method Pahan used)

P( n dice were rolled) Is the prior on the number of dice - our initial guesses (before seeing X) as to what the probability of different numbers of dice are.
 
Cariyaga said:
On the plus side, if Akane dies we can make shipping them less creepy if Hazou resurrects her in three years or so.
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Given the control effect of Edo Tensei, I imagine it gets quite a bit more creepy, not less.
Incidentally, I suspect that Roki will fail against Jotarou, but we should really be worried about Noburi and Keiko. Hazou has his emergency reroll, and Akane has her Style, both of which will afford them some protection. Keiko, conversely, is a ranged fighter in a small room, and Noburi has the weakest combat stat.
 
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faflec said:
Shitty Les Mis
One Day More

Inoue: One day more!
Another day, another destiny,
In this never ending road to Calvary.
This man who has now seen our crime,
Will surely come to end our time here​.
One day more!

Hazou: I thought we'd live forevermore,
How can I live when you've been parted?

Akane: Tomorrow I'll be worlds away,
And yet with you my world was started.

Kagome: One more day all on my own.
Hazou: I swear that we shall meet again!
Kagome: One more day with just my sealing.
Hazou: You weren't born to die like this!
Kagome: What a life I might have known,
Hazou: And I swear I'll bring you home.
Kagome: But she never made it back.

Shikigami: One more day before the storm!
Hazou: Do I follow where they went?
Shikigami: At the ivory gates of freedom!
Hazou: Shall I join my brothers there?
Shikigami: When our ranks begin to form,
Hazou: Do I stay or do I dare?
Shikigami: Will you take your place with me?

Chorus: The time is now, the day is here!

Inoue: One day more!

Joutarou: One day more to annihilation,
We will nip them in the bud.
I will crush these little schoolboys,
They will wet themselves with blood!

Missing-Nin: Watch 'em run amok,
Catch them as they fall,
Never know your luck when there's a free-for-all!
Here a little nip,
There a little touch,
Most of them are goners so they won't miss much!

Hivemind 1: One day to a new beginning!
Hivemind 2: Raise the flag of madness high!
Hivemind 1: Every man will blame themselves!
Hivemind 2: Every man will blame the GMs!
Hivemind 1: There's a new death in the party!
Hivemind 2: There's a new hole to be dug!
Hivemind: Do you hear the hivemind scream?

Hazou: My place, is here, I stay with you!

Inoue: One day more!
All: Chorus

Inoue: Tomorrow we'll be far away,
Tomorrow is the Judgement Day!

All: Tomorrow we'll discover what our God @eaglejarl has in store!
One more dawn!
One more day!
One day more!
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This. Was. Epic. +2 XP.

MadScientist said:
You really didn't spend very long with them, did you? As far as Hazou's plots go, this one's kinda... in the middle."
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+1 XP for cracking me up. +1 more because it's the first time in a long time.

You guys are on a roll tonight.


Also, +2 more XP for the person who gifted me a fun coffee table conversation. It was good to get out of the house, and I enjoyed meeting you. Good luck on the new adventure.

Jello_Raptor said:
Honestly, I'm getting pretty annoyed with how we, the players, seem to like holding @eaglejarl up by a few jokes made in good fun. I'm totally cool with teasing him back for the shit he pulls, because good lord he deserves it, but it's being done in a way that's hard for me to tell from genuine vitriol and that isn't kosher.
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If it helps, I'm enjoying the byplay and not bothered by it. Thank you for looking out for me, though. I'm grateful.
 
HoratioVonBecker said:
Given the control effect of Edo Tensei, I imagine it gets quite a bit more creepy, not less.
Incidentally, I suspect that Roki will fail against Jotarou, but we should really be worried about Noburi and Keiko. Hazou has his emergency reroll, and Akane has her Style, both of which will afford them some protection. Keiko, conversely, is a ranged fighter in a small room, and Noburi has the weakest combat stat.
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Who said anything about Edo Tensei? We'll resurrect her better than that!

non-edit: aaaaaaaaaaaaaah he's here!
 
eaglejarl said:
This. Was. Epic. +2 XP.



+1 XP for cracking me up. +1 more because it's the first time in a long time.

You guys are on a roll tonight.


Also, +2 more XP for the person who gifted me a fun coffee table conversation. It was good to get out of the house, and I enjoyed meeting you. Good luck on the new adventure.



If it helps, I'm enjoying the byplay and not bothered by it. Thank you for looking out for me, though. I'm grateful.
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Does that mean we'll survive long enough to spend XP again?

I guess we could also use it towards our new character's stats.
 
HoratioVonBecker said:
Given the control effect of Edo Tensei, I imagine it gets quite a bit more creepy, not less.
Incidentally, I suspect that Roki will fail against Jotarou, but we should really be worried about Noburi and Keiko. Hazou has his emergency reroll, and Akane has her Style, both of which will afford them some protection. Keiko, conversely, is a ranged fighter in a small room, and Noburi has the weakest combat stat.
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Hacking Edo Tensei to not give control over the results sounds pretty easy (compared to getting it in the first place anyway). Control is usually the hard part of anything.
 
(Assuming Hazou survives) I think we need to check the cause of death for several small animals placed into storage scrolls, assuming there isn't the same interdiction against unwilling creatures for storage as for substitution. It would be a first step to progressively fixing those problems to create survivable suspended animation storage scrolls (even if we wouldn't attempt to actually make a pokeball until sealing 20 or whatever level).

Being able to keep live specimens would be a huge help for medicine, interrogation, infiltration... hell, even combat! All the surprise bonus dice ever! Store your enemies and run! And, it would be the kind of game-changing project that we could provide as a bargaining chip to bump us way the hell up on J's list of valuable assets to keep alive.
 
Jello_Raptor said:
You know, if this were canon naruto, physics would change in our favour to make things like that work. As long as we're more protagonisty than the people we're fighting.
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In the red corner: a lone swordsman on a mission to protect a woman and child carrying vital information.

In the blue corner: a mind-controlling ninja with her four subordinates, each of whom has an obvious personality quirk and a distinctive special ability. They have broken into the lone swordsman's refuge, incapacitated and/or killed his ally, and are now holding the two innocents hostage.

Good luck.
 
Hmm. Would it be too meta to create a technique that requires the expenditure of XP to use? Because that strikes me as a very valid limitation for our potential resurrection technique.
 
Velorien said:
In the red corner: a lone swordsman on a mission to protect a woman and child carrying vital information.

In the blue corner: a mind-controlling ninja with her four subordinates, each of whom has an obvious personality quirk and a distinctive special ability. They have broken into the lone swordsman's refuge, incapacitated and/or killed his ally, and are now holding the two innocents hostage.

Good luck.
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Stupid placebomancy bullshit :mad: I see your framing and raise you "Four children and their adoptive older sister, on a mission to save the world, are confronted by a man who has devoted his life to supporting the cycle of death that is slowly choking the human race into oblivion with no demonstrated remorse" :p
 
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Omake: True Final Ultimate Secret Mori Technique: Clear Communication no Jutsu!
  • Apocrypha
    • STORIES FOR THE STORY GOD! Stuff is inside spoilers to prevent this from being suuuuper long but you should still read it :)

    Omake: True Final Ultimate Secret Mori Technique: Clear Communication no Jutsu!

    "Keiko?" She opened her eyes and suppressed a slight annoyance at the sound of Hazou calling her name. She rose from her meditative pose to walk around the corner. He stood politely, holding two cups of tea, just outside the threshold of her area of the fort, doors not being within his MEW-repertoire. ("Not yet! Growth mindset!" he would insist.)

    She noticed to her surprise that he was not, in fact, displaying his trademark Kurosawa Lip Chew No. 12, but instead one she hadn't seen before. She nodded for him to continue.

    "Keiko, I wanted to thank you, and to apologize for causing tension at the team meeting tonight. May I come in?"

    Again she nodded, accepting one of the cups before turning around.

    After they'd sat and sipped politely for a moment, Hazou started speaking again. "Your suggestion to plan modular conversations in three dimensions came in very handy when I was discussing experimental seal ideas with Kagome earlier, and I wanted to express my sincere appreciation for it."

    Recognizing the cadence of the conversation now, Keiko responded in kind. "I am glad that my suggestion proved useful. However, I would ask that further discussion along this branch of the conversation be postponed, as it is not as emotionally salient to me as the other component of your stated intentions."

    Hazou nodded gravely, setting his cup of down. Then he bowed, and Keiko had to restrain a moment of shock. "I recognize that my suggestion to place Pandaa in harm's way was distressing to you, and that it was done in a callous manner, for both of which I apologize. I should have recognized that you have spent a good deal of time developing a personal relationship with the pangolins, and with Pandaa in particular. And though Mari-sensei intervened with an explanation on my behalf, my model of you suggested it would be much more productive for our friendship were I to make an additional effort."

    "Your model was… accurate. Despite Mari-sensei's explanation, and despite recognizing on reflection that your suggestion was made in an effort to keep team members safe, I felt some amount of resentment at the thought that my main contribution to the group would be eliminated for a period of time were things to go wrong, as they often do. I accept your apology, and hope that repeating such an apology will not be necessary in the future."

    "Hmm. While I continue to object to the characterization of the pangolin clan contract as your primary contribution to the group, I do not expect any discussion there would be productive. Instead, there is a component of this conversation I am hesitant to broach but feel is too important not to. What would your feelings be towards trying to expand this mode of communication to other members of the team, at least for important discussions?"

    Keiko considered for a moment, and was about to respond when a part of his phrasing caught her attention. "I will anser momentarily, but 'Component of the conversation'? You planned this out using my suggestions?"

    He grinned. "This is variation AABDA, with each branch sorted by how likely I expect that response to be. Clearly there is some polishing to be done in my model of you, but it is working well so far."

    Keiko felt a warmth spreading through her that had nothing to do with the tea.
    --------------------------------------

    (Later)

    "So… you just… say whatever pops into your head? What if you think of something mean or un-youthful? Frankly, that doesn't seem like it would lend itself to team cohesion very well."

    "No, no, it's not anything that you think of, it's the things that you think have some notable chance of causing a miscommunication, and you spell it out in more detail than in a normal conversation, rather than assuming the person you were talking to will be drawing conclusions and making assumptions that match your own. Do you read "The Tragedy of Ren and Jing" in Hidden Leaf academy, when they're teaching you about the importance of team communication?"

    "Huuuuh… the one where the boy doesn't remember what the handsigns mean and thinks his crush killed herself?"

    "Right. It's like that, but the opposite, and maximized."

    "...Hazou-sensei, maybe it would help if you could just give me an example rather than try and explain it a fifth different way?"

    "Oh, sure! Aheh-hmm." He cleared his expression and his throat. "Akane, I would like to convince you to adopt this style of communication in some limited situations, specifically when the team is emotionally stressed but has plenty of time for discussion. This is not because I think your typical style of communication is poor - I actively enjoy your company, in fact - but rather because I think that there are advantages to extremely deliberate communication in those circumstances."

    "Hmm. Let me try. Hazou-sensei, I appreciate your eagerness to accommodate my request to try a different way to teach me this method, and I think it helped, but I am having difficulty envisioning when it would actually be more useful than simply talking."

    Hazou beamed. "That was excellent, Akane! To address your last point, part of the utility comes from discarding social norms which would normally stand in the way of honest criticism or require dishonest praise. This means you get better feedback, but means it's only really a useful strategy among people who trust one another, which is of course fine among the team. For example, Keiko and I spoke in this manner before your birthday, and again earlier when I went to apologize for upsetting her with my suggestion to use Pandaa to scout for traps. In fact, the reason I'm bringing this whole thing up with you personally rather than with the whole team is that there's a couple projects I really want to have the two of you cooperate on."
    --------------------------------------

    (Even later)

    Akane and Keiko watched each other over their teacups. Keiko glanced at Hazou and raised a skeptical eyebrow. "You think we should work in close proximity for an extended period of time on potentially very frustrating projects? I worry that the differences in our personalities will exacerbate any difficulties that present themselves, under such circumstances."

    He just nodded.

    "The first of the two is one I expect we can get done quickly, and use to establish a routine for the second, more complicated one. Both revolve around the use of Elemental Mastery. Currently, Akane can bring a room from a normal temperature to freezing cold or really, really hot. I want to find out if we can use that to manufacture ice to supply Honami's inn, and we need both Keiko's logistics expertise and Akane's technique to figure out an optimal way to create and deliver it. The second one goes in the opposite direction, depending on heat generation. Here, Keiko."

    He handed her a bit of paper with a series of diagrams on it, along with some cross-shaped pieces of wood. After puzzling over them for a second, Kei began assembling them. "Where does Elemental Mastery play into this plan for a floating base?"

    "Well-" Hazou started.

    "Hazou, while I appreciate your enthusiasm, I would appreciate more the chance for Akane to demonstrate how well your lesson in communication took hold."

    Akane set her cup down. "Hazou-sensei mentioned a time when he won a long-jump bet by riding the warm air rising from a shop. The warm air generated by the Elemental Mastery technique might be used in a similar way, depending on the precise details, to raise up a basket or platform underneath a large canvass that could be steered using wind techniques. The base of the platform would be brought up either under such a basket or in expanded storage scrolls. There are also potential applications for transporting the team across borders too high to be spotted, certainly too high to be attacked."

    She paused to take a measured breath. "If I can return to an earlier topic of conversation, I agree that there is potential for friction between our problem-solving approaches, but I contend that confronting that friction will help us to grow as people and to contribute more to our team and welcome the chance to do so." She grinned slightly. "I would welcome the chance to practice this communication method you and Hazou-sensei chose to chare with me, should any serious conflicts arise, as that seems to be a sizeable chunk of Hazou-sensei's third project, the continued improvement of our friendship."

    Keiko blinked. Twice. Before producing a deep sigh. "Alright. Let's see this mess of an experimental protocol I know you've got hidden in your sleeve, Hazou."
    ---------------------------

    Mari briefly glanced up from her sunbathing as a faint voice drifted over the resort wall from far out into the nearby wooded hills - "Oh, not ANOTHER flowchart!!"
     
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  • Apocrypha
    • Omake: Wait...You Too?
  • Apocrypha
    • WORDS FOR THE WORD THRONE! (Somewhat half-baked but hey, it made me giggle and I'm tired.)
    OliWhail said:
    If this thread has taught me anything it's...
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    Mini-Omake: Constant Vigilance!

    Mari discreetly checked the messenger seal on the flap concealed on the inner surface of her bra, like she'd done a million times since this damned missing nin business started.

    Akane butted into her field of view from the side. "Eh, Mari-sensei, what's that? Didn't Kagome-sensei say never to put seals on fabric, 'cuz they don't come out even and stuff?"

    Mari froze. The rest of the team was turning to look at her, as if in slow motion. She had to act now, take out the biggest threat - Keiko.

    As Zabuza dropped his petite but well-endowed redhead henge and returned to his full, towering height, he swung his mighty blade overhead from out of a storage seal tattooed on his back -

    Only to have it blocked by an identical sword, as Zabuza poofed out from Kei's similarly petite form.

    There was a moment of stunned silence.

    "Wait, you guys are Zabuza too??" asked Noburi.

    "C'mon, seriously! I thought I was special!" whined Hazou.

    "Oh unholy Jashin this is ridiculous. Seriously, what are the chances that we're all Zabuza?" asked Mari-Zabuza

    "I'm not." The one that looked like Akane raised her hand. "I'm actually Itachi Uchiha," she said, managing to keep a completely straight face.

    Everyone shared a good laugh at that. Then Itachi dropped his henge and killed them all, because that's what happens when you let your guard down in a rational ninja deathworld.

    You die.

    Sleep tight :)
     
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  • Apocrypha
    • OliWhail, you are incredible at comedy. I have to keep myself either from snorting in laughter or sobbing (in other cases) just about every time I see one of your omake :p

    Great job!
     
    So it looks like I slept through most of the panic, but shouldn't be too late to join in on self-flagellation, so...

    I'm very annoyed at myself for forgetting about caltrops, esp. since I proposed measures of dealing with them before.

    I was kinda hoping someone would take the plan and edit in improvements while I'm away, but it's also my fault for not expressing clearly that I won't be around for most of the day, excuses or no.

    I was going to skip commenting on things said last night, bc it's been a while and we have lovely omake as distraction, but there is one thing that bothered me:

    Twofold said:
    Except she doesn't, since she rolled Stealth 11 earlier. If she had pangonlin-jutsu she would have rolled 10 due to the penalty to her flexibility.
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    QMs say: bonuses and maluses are included in number of dice rolled.
    QMs say: Akane wears pangolin jutsu always.

    Either there was some bonus to make up for lost die, or the writer forgot to drop it.
    If the pangolin jutsu was simply dropped w/o warning us, there will be a lot of stink. Ngl, I will generate most of it, or at least put in a good effort to do so.
     
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