Expectation management: 496 words, which is -1 XP, so it's probably going to be either 0 or -1 XP overall.

Some interesting stuff in here. The rationalist theory elements are particularly intriguing.

I do not think as a matter of policy you should ever give negative xp awards. 0 xp is fine, but negative xp just seems a little too adversarial.
 

WDB?

Anyway, we should level up Noburi's combat skills since he's lagging behind the other.

I do not think as a matter of policy you should ever give negative xp awards. 0 xp is fine, but negative xp just seems a little too adversarial.

There must be a disincentive to prevent the word counts of plans to spiral out of control. Otherwise, the QM would need to give out more XP.
 
There must be a disincentive to prevent the word counts of plans to spiral out of control. Otherwise, the QM would need to give out more XP.

Sure, the disincentive is reducing xp. I just think it should bottom out at 0. If the players think a particular scene is so important as to write a highly detailed plan covering a very short stretch of time leaving the xp reward as 0, there's no need to hit them further and actually take away xp.
 
Some interesting stuff in here. The rationalist theory elements are particularly intriguing.

I suspect I'd enjoy breaking that down and discussing it after you write the update. I don't want to bias you yet, but I'm proud of how much is packed into that notion.

My real world formulation of the idea also includes 'Aumann's Agreement Theorem', 'tit-for-tat with forgiveness', a bunch of stuff from information theory (esp. ideas on signal to noise ratio and error coding), and the idea that 'Bayesian priors ought to allow for the possibility that you are the other person', but that seems a bit much to ask of Hazou.

At least the veil of ignorance thought experiment, the concept of an iterated prisoner's dilemma, and the tit-for-tat strategy are explainable w/ Hazou's level of sophistication, even if the elemental nations probably doesn't have that exact vocabulary.

OTOH, I get this ominous feeling I'm misinterpreting what this is meant to accomplish. Who knows.

I think you might be a bit.

It's mostly what I've said before, about how Orochimaru doesn't really have equals, intellectually or power, so us making this argument to him doesn't really stop him from conducting what are (to us) unethical experimentation on other peoples.

It doesn't stop him from acting unethically, no. He'll still be able to push his weight around and end up benefiting his terminal values. This isn't a magic argument that will make his motives less selfish.

I am trying to provide Orochimaru with a different perspective/framing on the problem of making good decisions. One where the key sticking point is figuring out what definition of 'sufficiently similar' is best for him.

Hazou has relatively little power and goals that benefit significantly from cooperation, hence his optimal definition of 'sufficiently similar' is going to be rather wide and cover lots of agents with similar structure and goals.

Orochimaru on the other hand will probably have a narrower optimal definition of 'sufficiently similar' since the space of agents whom he could usefully cooperate with is smaller. If we're unlucky Oro's definition of 'sufficiently similar' won't include any others who actually exist, but even then it will still cover many possible agents who aren't Orochimaru.

Basically, it's a line of thought that leads from purely selfish motives to actions that approximate altruism for groups that he's capable of cooperating with.

A bunch of other stuff in the plan is there to signal that:
  • We're a group he can usefully cooperate with
  • We are capable of usefully cooperating with many more actors than he is.
  • If he works with us he can derive benefit from not just our capabilities but those of our allies, even those allies he couldn't interface with directly.
If he doesn't enjoy dealing with most people (which seems likely) then that places us as valuable intermediary between him and the outside world. (esp. stupid people and politics)

And I did see your response to my initial remark, and I still don't agree that Orochimaru would see us as part of the same intellectual reference class;

Ahh, I think you mistake me. I'm not trying to convince Orochimaru that we're as intelligent or as powerful as he is, just that we think like him. In particular, that we are enough like him that straightforward cooperation is the best tactic, as opposed to manipulation, force, or some other non win-win tactic.

we're nowhere near him in that time frame, we probably won't get to that position without becoming significantly more powerful and having a few more impossible things to our name, and if Orochimaru does start to see us like that, he'll also start thinking of ways to accidentally us to keep us from interfering with his research.

The point is to stop him from seeing us an an enemy/obstacle in the first place or, failing that, make his optimal move be defecting ASAP in an arena with limited stakes. If he's trustworthy then I want to convince him that we're trustworthy too, if he's not trustworthy then I want to find out as soon as possible.
 
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Can we not include game theory stuff that Hazo wouldn't understand anyway?

@Inferno Vulpix @apooooop @Unaligned Player @hamnox @Ishtar @MadScientist
Pardon the formatting issue. Can ya all unvote the winning plan if it's not under sufficient word count? Or if you hadn't already done so, vote for the trimmed version?
I would but how do you unvote a plan?

Edit: oof nevermind, voting closed. Sorry Kiba
 
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I would but how do you unvote a plan?

Edit: oof nevermind, voting closed. Sorry Kiba
You can edit the post where you voted to take the "x" out.

You can click on your name in the vote tally under a given plan to take you to the post where you voted/created said plan.

You can get to the vote tally by going to "Thread tools" in the top right--you can do the above without actually posting the tally in thread as well.
 
Hey let's talk about training plans to keep our minds off of our impending demise!

Noburi's got Pangolin XP to use and 130XP of <other> XP; what should we spend it on?
I have a projected build for him that's somewhat outdated, but I can go over the details here real quick:

Getting Shadow Clone is high priority (assuming Kabuto okays it), especially since it'll be much faster for Noburi to hit the right CR level. There's a problem in his build, however, where he can't level his CR past 19, which may or may not be enough CR (it's effective CR 30-31 or something). If we wanted to play it safe then we'd want CR 21 but we'd need to re-jigger the pyramid for that.

The fastest way to clear the path for CR 21 would be one level of Intimidation (currently 9) and two levels of Deceit (currently 8) which would pad out the 10's enough to bump CR into the 20's. An alternate strategy would be to level Water Dragon Bullet from 25 to 30, which even halfcost is still more expensive than three levels of sub-10 socials but likely resonates better with Noburi because he wants to get good at WDB.

If Kabuto tells us that SC is non-viable for Noburi then we move on to the next part of Noburi's build: medical skills. They're currently in an awkward position in the 10's supporting the rest of the build but with some effort they can be brought up through the AB tiers. Whatever the tier situation, however, it's in our interests to cap them out at 19.

So overall my advice is to wait until we get Kabuto's decision, maybe investing some XP in CR anyways just to pump up his CR storage for more general purposes, and depending on whether SC is viable or not level CR/Deceit/Intimidation or MedNin/MedKnow.
 
You can get to the vote tally by going to "Thread tools" in the top right--you can do the above without actually posting the tally in thread as well.

At least up until I started voting (which I'm fairly certain was pre XF2), you need to have voted once ever to see the vote tally option. Uncertain if that changed, and also kinda irrelevant in this case :D
 
At least up until I started voting (which I'm fairly certain was pre XF2), you need to have voted once ever to see the vote tally option. Uncertain if that changed, and also kinda irrelevant in this case :D
You can always see and use the vote tally option in Thread Tools, I'm fairly sure.
 
@faflec: do you have a pointer to the other properties Jiraiya was considering buying?
It turns out that hidden villages don't have that much by way of affordable and unclaimed space, especially at clan compound size. When it is affordable and unclaimed, it's usually for a reason.

Jiraiya was able to track down three potential sites. The first, the agent assured you after some pressure from Jiraiya, was definitely not once the site of a secret laboratory where a diabolical missing-nin once experimented on helpless civilians, and does not have huge unexplored catacombs beneath it from whence the wailing of children and the snarls of unspeakable abominations can be heard on moonless nights.

The second once was a clan compound, but was unwisely built right next to the Forest of Death, surrounded by it on two sides. The minor clan who lived there disappeared one day, and nobody else has been willing to take their place and entrust their survival to protective seals which clearly didn't do the job last time.

The third neighbours the Hyūga compound. There's nothing wrong with it as such, and in fact it's situated in a very well-off area, but nobody wants to move in next to the Hyūga.

Jiraiya will accept input from the rest of the group once his headache dies down.
Yes.
 
Ah, shucks. We forgot to make preparations for the stuff from Bear, the Condor Summoner, Joutarou's nephew, the Blademonster Boss summon, or Zabuza.
 
I suspect I'd enjoy breaking that down and discussing it after you write the update. I don't want to bias you yet, but I'm proud of how much is packed into that notion.

My real world formulation of the idea also includes 'Aumann's Agreement Theorem', 'tit-for-tat with forgiveness', a bunch of stuff from information theory (esp. ideas on signal to noise ratio and error coding), and the idea that 'Bayesian priors ought to allow for the possibility that you are the other person', but that seems a bit much to ask of Hazou.

At least the veil of ignorance thought experiment, the concept of an iterated prisoner's dilemma, and the tit-for-tat strategy are explainable w/ Hazou's level of sophistication, even if the elemental nations probably doesn't have that exact vocabulary.
Do you reckon we can use Updateless Decision Theory and its fascinating multiversal implications as a nerd-nuke against the Five? It'd sure be nifty if the Tama were too busy rewriting their entire long-term meta-strategies to wage war.
 
I think we need to add some real estate actions to our plan cache, hit 'Informative' if you agree: (The cache requires some thread consensus)
  • Check sale status and price for the two other potential clan compounds we were considering buying.
  • See if any new properties of sufficient size are on the market.
  • Find temporary storage and housing.
  • Get an itemized list of payments on our old compound and improvements we have performed.
  • Check to see if there's any liability on the person who sold us the compound. In particular, if Orochimaru owned it then the vendor was probably illegally selling us a property they didn't own.
Most of these we can delegate to KEI ninja or civilians, and we'll still have a solid core who can help with the actual moving.

I'd be leaning towards buying the compound near the forest of mild inconvenience. We'd need to explicitly partition the space so that some KEI ninja could live there, since it required a heavy ninja presence to be viable.

Also, we should (in the longer term) consider buying out the compound next to the Hyuuga. Converting it into an industrial zone will be rather a lot of fun. :evil:

As for the last one, if the vendor has any legal liability for selling us Orochimaru's compound then that gives us a way to pressure them. Even if I wouldn't try to recoup our losses in full from them, they may very have another property lying around that we could convince them to give us.
 
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I think we need to add some real estate actions to our plan cache, hit 'Informative' if you agree: (The cache requires some thread consensus)
  • Check sale status and price for the two other potential clan compounds we were considering buying.
  • See if any new properties of sufficient size are on the market.
  • Find temporary storage and housing.
  • Get an itemized list of payments on our old compound and improvements we have performed.
  • Check to see if there's any liability on the person who sold us the compound. In particular, if Orochimaru owned it then the vendor was probably illegally selling us a property they didn't own.
Most of these we can delegate to KEI ninja or civilians, and we'll still have a solid core who can help with the actual moving.

I'd be leaning towards buying the compound near the forest of mild inconvenience. We'd need to explicitly partition the space so that some KEI ninja could live there, since it required a heavy ninja presence to be viable.

Also, we should (in the longer term) consider buying out the compound next to the Hyuuga. Converting it into an industrial zone will be rather a lot of fun. :evil:

As for the last one, if the vendor has any legal liability for selling us Orochimaru's compound then that gives us a way to pressure them. Even if I wouldn't try to recoup our losses in full from them, they may very have another property lying around that we could convince them to give us.

It's probably the tower itself that sold the house to us.
 
The third neighbours the Hyūga compound. There's nothing wrong with it as such, and in fact it's situated in a very well-off area, but nobody wants to move in next to the Hyūga.

Hazo: Howdy Neighborino!

Hiashi: REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
 
Hazo: Howdy Neighborino!

Hiashi: REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
OTOH, going next to the Hyuga means that whatever Iwa-nin show up will also be attacking us, due to the proximity.
 
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