HoratioVonBecker
Imperfectly Aligned
It's just odd that it did come up, briefly, and then the characters apparently forgot about it. Conservation of detail and all.
Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest
- Thread starter eaglejarl
- Start date
-
- Tags
- naruto rationalist romance armageddon is looking better and better damn you kishimoto explosions everywhere explosives solve everyone if in doubt surrender to the mercy of zabuza it seemed like a good idea at the time looks like a really bad case of being a jōnin my god. where does the lore end? precommitting is the winning plan screaming in kagome screw the rules i have explosives something bad might still happen sometimes you gotta sociopath stabby zabby subsection c of paragraph 9 should include we can weaponize this so hard
- Location
- Phoenix, AZ
For what it's worth, if I were in Hazou's spot, I wouldn't have brought it up for a variety of reasons (it doesn't seem like my business, it seems like it might upset Keiko and/or Inoue, it seems dangerous, it's not like there's really anything I can do about it). I see no problems with how it's been written. If you think it's important, you could propose action plans in which we have Hazou bring it up, but we haven't done that yet, and I kinda doubt we will.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
The weird thing I've noticed isn't that Hazou hasn't brought it up with Keiko, it's that Hazou seems utterly ignorant of Keiko's feelings, even though she has told them directly. Inoue cozies up to Kagome when he first joins, Keiko is quietly furious, and Hazou has no idea why. There's one or two more instances of this that I can't find, but it's strange that both Hazou and Noburi have completely forgotten that important conversation. These leave me completely confused about whether Hazou knows or not. He should, but he acts like he doesn't. That's why some people suspect memory shenanigans.
- Location
- Phoenix, AZ
To be clear, the things we're referring to are this scene,
And this scene
right? I don't remember a scene where Keiko outright professes her love for Inoue, and Hazou is 13, so these responses seem reasonable to me. It seems entirely plausible that a trained 13 year old killer who wasn't looking for evidence his friend has a crush on his sensei wouldn't have caught on, and if they did at a later time, not do anything about it.
- Location
- Europe
C'mon guys, cut Hazou some slack. The guy is 12 (or 13? I keep forgetting...) and has his hands full making sure everyone doesn't die horribly next week. If he misses a few social cues here and there and can't decipher the emotional depths of teenage girls I can't really hold it against him.
Besides I like somewhat dense protagonists. They are a staple for a reason.
Besides I like somewhat dense protagonists. They are a staple for a reason.
HoratioVonBecker
Imperfectly Aligned
...I don't think I'll dignify that with a response.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I could accept that if it was clear that it is part of Hazou's character that he's romantically inexperienced enough or heteronormative enough or just dense enough where his mind simply never made the actual connection or didn't think about it. But I actually don't know whether he's aware of it or not. Once again, Keiko literally told him, straight to his face. And he still acts as if that conversation never happened. It's just baffling to me, and this very long period of getting no definitive answer on what's going on inside Hazou's own brain is getting me frustrated.
I have no problem with how the protagonists are written. Romantic relationships are not important to the plot right now, and given that everyone is a magical ninja on the run for their lives relationships may never become important, and I'm fine with that. If they do become important, I'm sure they will be well written and engaging, and that's fine with me too.
HoratioVonBecker
Imperfectly Aligned
Just to make this really clear: My complaint isn't how romance has been handled, my view on it is similar to yours. My complaint is how in-character knowledge has been inconsistent.
Hazou's deception is higher than Kei's by a pretty decent margin. I'd expect him to have picked up on this by now.
That he hasn't feels really weird.
That he hasn't feels really weird.
- Location
- Phoenix, AZ
Romance and in-character reactions/knowledge aside, let's get back on task, this village isn't going to willingly give up all its resources to us. To do that, we need to have some sort of working relationship with the village. The ideal end-game is probably we leave with the summoning scroll (or some form of contract or more information on the summon scroll), and good enough relations that we may return whenever we want, and could plausibly demand/request/pay for missions from them (to, say, defend a caravan). With that in mind, we first need to find out what the village's power-structure is (so we can interact intelligently with them), what their relationship to the summon scroll is, and if there's a way we could lessen their isolationist tendencies.
I think we can leverage the Kouta situation to get information about their power-structure, I'm less clear on how we should best approach a conversation to find out their relationship with the summon scroll, aside from just straight-up telling Yoshida what we want and hoping for the best. One way to put it would be to say we were sent to find out about ancient lore, and we're interested in the founding of the village, and provide what we've heard about Akio and things. Unfortunately, I suspect they would react poorly to finding out there's other people who want to find out about them aside from us, so I'm not sure.
I think we can leverage the Kouta situation to get information about their power-structure, I'm less clear on how we should best approach a conversation to find out their relationship with the summon scroll, aside from just straight-up telling Yoshida what we want and hoping for the best. One way to put it would be to say we were sent to find out about ancient lore, and we're interested in the founding of the village, and provide what we've heard about Akio and things. Unfortunately, I suspect they would react poorly to finding out there's other people who want to find out about them aside from us, so I'm not sure.
So, I haven't had the time to contribute to the thread lately, but I did get annoyed by all the ?d100 and set about trying to figure out whether ベイズの統計術 can help, and here's the result (in R). In a nutshell, the parameter of interest is the number of dice being rolled, which is a discrete variable, so Frequentist inference is a pain, and, also, we usually have some idea of who someone is before the dice start rolling, so having an informative prior is useful. The likelihood is just the probability of the sequence of rolls that occurred given the number of dice (the parameter).
Now, calculating the exact probability of a die total is a pain (because you end up summing up over all possible ways to get that particular total, a task whose complexity grows exponentially in the number of dice, and the fact that we are using d100 isn't helping), but, fortunately, we are dealing with sums of independent random variables here, Central Limit Theorem kicks in very quickly in this case, and so I am just using the Normal approximation.
Example: Arrogant Snot rolls 651 and 663, and is probably a genin, but with some physical poficiency and confident even after having watched Hazou and Akane spar, so I would very much doubt he had less than 8 dice, and 20 is getting into Jounin territory, IIRC, and we'd expect more dignity from those. I have no further beliefs about relative plausibilities of die counts.
I get
and a plot
Now, calculating the exact probability of a die total is a pain (because you end up summing up over all possible ways to get that particular total, a task whose complexity grows exponentially in the number of dice, and the fact that we are using d100 isn't helping), but, fortunately, we are dealing with sums of independent random variables here, Central Limit Theorem kicks in very quickly in this case, and so I am just using the Normal approximation.
Code:
###### Return and plot the posterior distribution of the number of
###### dice rolled for a given sample of rolls and prior beliefs.
##
#### Arguments
##
## rolls = vector of roll totals, assuming they are independent and
## made with the same number of dice
##
## prior.min = smallest plausible number of dice (prior to seeing the
## actual rolls)
##
## prior.max = greatest plausible number of dice (prior to seeing the
## actual rolls)
##
## prior.p = a vector of prior probabilities assigned to each value
## between prior.min and prior.max (inclusive); defaults to uniform
##
## plot = plot the posterior mass?
##
## cutoff = don't bother plotting possibilities with posterior
## probability less than this
##
#### Caveats
##
## * Calculating probabilities for sums of dice is a hassle, so I am
## using a Normal approximation here. It should work fine if
## prior.min > 3 or so, and definitely if prior.min > 6.
##
## * Rolls are assumed to be,
##
## 1) Independent: Probably true for dice rolls.
##
## 2) Identically distributed: The true underlying number of dice is
## the same for each roll, so no hidden challenge dice or boosts.
##
## 3) Missing at random for a given d: That is, rolls that came out
## too low or too high are not hidden from us, though it's OK if
## the QMs didn't bother to roll because the fight was too uneven
## or probabilities of all but one outcome was negligible.
##
d.post <- function(rolls, prior.min, prior.max, prior.p=1,
plot=TRUE, cutoff=.005){
prior.p <- rep(prior.p, length.out=prior.max-prior.min+1)
prior <- function(d) prior.p[d-prior.min+1]
## Normal approximation: should work well enough for d>3. I probably
## could have just used Normal PDF here, but this should be a tiny
## bit more accurate.
lik <- function(d){
m <- 50.5*d
s <- sqrt(d*(100^2-1)/12)
prod((pnorm(rolls+.5, m, s)
-pnorm(rolls-.5, m, s)))/
(pnorm(d*100+.5, m, s)
-pnorm(d-.5, m, s))^length(rolls)
}
post <- sapply(prior.min:prior.max, function(d) prior(d)*lik(d))
names(post) <- prior.min:prior.max
post <- post/sum(post)
if(plot)
plot((prior.min:prior.max)[post>=cutoff],
post[post>=cutoff],
xlab="Dice", ylab="Posterior probability",
type="h")
post
}Example: Arrogant Snot rolls 651 and 663, and is probably a genin, but with some physical poficiency and confident even after having watched Hazou and Akane spar, so I would very much doubt he had less than 8 dice, and 20 is getting into Jounin territory, IIRC, and we'd expect more dignity from those. I have no further beliefs about relative plausibilities of die counts.
Code:
d.post(c(651,663), 8,20)
Code:
8 9 10 11 12 13
3.005979e-05 1.669382e-03 2.226087e-02 1.052838e-01 2.290262e-01 2.742862e-01
14 15 16 17 18 19
2.056178e-01 1.060004e-01 4.032392e-02 1.194609e-02 2.873981e-03 5.803451e-04
20
1.009962e-04
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HoratioVonBecker
Imperfectly Aligned
Here, have an idea for discussing the Summon Scroll: Say we went to Tonaki looking for it, didn't find it there, and were ambushed on the way back. We have perfectly legitimate reasons to be curious about Hidden Mountain, and to follow them, which we stated. The fact that we also suspect they have the summon scroll can be politely ignored/carefully avoided, as necessary.
I'm not sold on it, but I'd like to mention the possibility.
I'm not sold on it, but I'd like to mention the possibility.
Jackercracks
In a British accent
- Location
- England
Fair doos. The issue has been raised and noted, we'll sort it out once the three of us are all online again.
Ridiculously Average Guy
I'm you, but stronger
- Location
-
So, I have an idea. I'm honestly not sure why I didn't think of it earlier.
Once Noburi has higher levels in medjutsu, we should all get facial reconstruction surgery.
Once Noburi has higher levels in medjutsu, we should all get facial reconstruction surgery.
- Location
- Yes.
Noburi: Hey guys I've got a great idea! Now that I've gotten really good at medical ninjutsu and surgery, why don't I change up our faces to look different!
Kagome: !!!
Everyone else: No wait don--
Kagome: *sets off all explosive tags, runs away screaming*
Everyone else: *dies*
Jackercracks
In a British accent
- Location
- England
[evil] And I mean, if you're going to get facial reconstructive surgery anyway, you might as well go the whole hog and kill someone rich, impersonate them, steal their identity and use their resources to your own nefarious ends.
- Location
- Yes.
Serious mode though, if Noburi gets good enough to do stupidly advanced medical ninjutsu we're at the point where we want to keep our faces for our reputation (unless we manage to piss off every person in the Elemental Nations, which means we're probably already screwed.
HoratioVonBecker
Imperfectly Aligned
Okay fine, that could be useful. But I still say we should make a tongue/toetap/fingertwitch code to record everything we see and hear first. No telling when an enemy might have memory editing kinjutsu, after all.
- Location
- USA
Table that for now, this talk about our emotions is distracting us from our goal of making Keiko stronger by gaining a summon scroll contract for her.
Also stop being evil!
Lets let Mrs. Yoshida talk with us, but don't commit to any agreement yet. The things she could say that we could plan to react to about the situation are very limited at this point given we know very little about her personally. We had one of our team injured by the malicious intent of one of her subordinates, so she might be offering an official apology but I don't see how we can leverage that with our current information about her. This is a data mining attempt on her part, and one that we could try and turn around on her. She might ask for reparations for our own actions in injuring one of their healthy ninja who is required to go hunt for food to keep the village fed. We could use that as a way of officially adding one of our members to a hunting party until Kouta is healthy enough to rejoin his squad. We would be able to gain favor with those we hunt with as we pull our own weight while staying in the area as we more directly aid the village that way.
In any case, the fact that she wants to talk with us is an opportunity to get to know her better and figure out more about how this village is run. Things we could work on figuring out: What is her rank in the village officially? Why does Kouta think that a girl fighter is not a challenge when they have a girl in a leadership position? Who else is in charge of the village and how do they make and enforce their own laws?
Also how much emotion do regular animals display in the world of MfD, would you consider the group of Tapirs being unhappy they where also sent away from guard duty signs of sapience or just regular reaction to being scolded, the sort behavior you would see in something like a dog in our world?
Also stop being evil!
Lets let Mrs. Yoshida talk with us, but don't commit to any agreement yet. The things she could say that we could plan to react to about the situation are very limited at this point given we know very little about her personally. We had one of our team injured by the malicious intent of one of her subordinates, so she might be offering an official apology but I don't see how we can leverage that with our current information about her. This is a data mining attempt on her part, and one that we could try and turn around on her. She might ask for reparations for our own actions in injuring one of their healthy ninja who is required to go hunt for food to keep the village fed. We could use that as a way of officially adding one of our members to a hunting party until Kouta is healthy enough to rejoin his squad. We would be able to gain favor with those we hunt with as we pull our own weight while staying in the area as we more directly aid the village that way.
In any case, the fact that she wants to talk with us is an opportunity to get to know her better and figure out more about how this village is run. Things we could work on figuring out: What is her rank in the village officially? Why does Kouta think that a girl fighter is not a challenge when they have a girl in a leadership position? Who else is in charge of the village and how do they make and enforce their own laws?
Also how much emotion do regular animals display in the world of MfD, would you consider the group of Tapirs being unhappy they where also sent away from guard duty signs of sapience or just regular reaction to being scolded, the sort behavior you would see in something like a dog in our world?
Ridiculously Average Guy
I'm you, but stronger
- Location
-
See, you're joking, but Hazou can actually pull that off given enough time to study his target.
We could replace Gato.
- Location
- USA
I guess I just dreamed kagome being confirmed as from whirlpool then. Urgh I hate it when dreams slip into memories like that, feels like I'm being randomly edited while I sleep.
Ridiculously Average Guy
I'm you, but stronger
- Location
-
Kagome would be all for it if it allows him to hide better.
Jackercracks
In a British accent
- Location
- England
Sounds like the plot of Dark City.
Edit: Watch out for pasty bald guys with no eyebrows wearing way too much black leather and carrying syringes. Not because of the movie, just on general principles.
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