Um...is our situation really that bad?
At the very least, our debt is something which can be acted on sooner than the tournment goo bombs. The only real reason I can think of for doing goo bombs now instead of later is if we think Jiraiya is going to be unable to infuse them closer to the tournament, or if we want to increase the number of goo bombs we walk around Leaf with. Making them now seems suboptimal, if perhaps good for "assume Akatsuki will attack within 6 hours."

BTW we should make every plan under the assumption Akatsuki will attack within 6 hours.
 
Um...is our situation really that bad?
We apparently havent paid the house off yet? We'll need more seed money for other ventures.

We're trying to get alternative sources of income other than tithes from the Holy Pangolin Empires war chest?
 
At the very least, our debt is something which can be acted on sooner than the tournment goo bombs. The only real reason I can think of for doing goo bombs now instead of later is if we think Jiraiya is going to be unable to infuse them closer to the tournament, or if we want to increase the number of goo bombs we walk around Leaf with. Making them now seems suboptimal, if perhaps good for "assume Akatsuki will attack within 6 hours."

BTW we should make every plan under the assumption Akatsuki will attack within 6 hours.
...are we not running under this assumption?

Oh dear. *runs off screaming*
 
We still don't have a definitive answer, but right at the moment my Magic 8-ball says "signs point to no".
I would like to point out that when we previously talked about this waaaaaay back when (like, just after Hidden Mountain), you had said something ot the effect of "Do you want to have a skill specifically for writing seals, because that would be required" -- or something to that effect, and we of course said no because our XP pools would cry.

Well... you kind of did that with Fated to Die in the Calligraphy skill. You could, of course, always just get rid of the Calligraphy skill. I'm sure no one would complain about that. (Or, at least, I wouldn't.)
 
Yeah, fair enough. Though there usually is more context to why they're stupid.

There's usually somebody a law made sense for, a model where it made sense, or some history that explains how the stupid thing happened.

For this, I'm drawing a blank on how it got this way. The best result I can get is they have fundamentally wrong models of economics, but I can't think of a vaguely sensible sounding wrong model that this would make sense under.

Mind, this is more likely a lack of imagination on my part than anything else, or maybe my standard for "sensible sounding" is too high. But please, someone throw me a bone, how could this rule have happened?
Is "this is some sort of stupid political compromise between Ninja and egotistical rich civilians." not good enough rationale?
Not quite, like what are the options they're compromising between? The tower has all the power on this particular issue, civies don't really care about it either. Seals are too ninja gated to matter much to civilians.
It's just, why pick this hill to die on in particular? It's so pointless, and the political operators so far seem capable of actually advancing their goals.

Also, even spiteful political dickwaving is usually a signaling mechanism, it doesn't make sense to do it the same way if you are signaling to peers (as in a dictatorship) as it does to if you're signaling to hoi polloi.

Edit: This would only make sense as a power move, but it's the party without power doing it. Just, how?
You are thinking about this inaccurately. You're assuming that it's a one-subject negotiation and only between two parties.

==== NOT WORD OF GOD, only an example

Clan #1: We want exclusive rights to the glass trade with River.

Hokage: The roof on the Academy just fell in, so we need to levy a one-time tax to fix it.

Clan #2: We want to sell seals. As many as we want, to whomever we want.

Clan #3: We're not paying any more taxes unless you give us a guarantee that we will get preferential pick of missions.

Clan #4: We want a waiver on the 'no chakra beasts within city limits' rule so that we can start a breeding farm. We're going to turn steelbacks into war companions.

Clan #2: That sounds pretty cool. We'd back you on that if you backed us on the seals thing.

Clan #4: Cool! We're in. Hey, Clan #1, if you go in with us too then we'll back you on the River trade.

Clan #1: Okay!

Hokage: I'm not letting you have unregulated sales on seals. The Tower needs to have a sufficient number coming in for war capacity.

Clan #1: Hey, what about the glass trade?

Hokage: I'm not giving you all the trade with River. I'll tell you what, though...I'll give you a 25% rebate on the luxury goods tax for the next five years if you vote against this 'unregulated seals' thing

Clan #4: Hey, Clan #1, we had a deal here! If you break it, we'll never trust you again.

Clan #1: Hm... That 25% sure sounds tasty... Okay, how about this: Clan #2, you want to make money from your seals and the Tower wants to make sure they have enough coming in. How about every sealmaster is required to donate a small number of seals per month?

Hokage: No, that's not going to cut it. We need a more flexible system for times when we have a sudden demand.

Clan #2: Hang on, this could work. How about all sealmasters donate a small number to you, and we get to sell as many as we want but half of them must be sold to you?

Hokage: No. Without price control that gives you too big an economic club to swing in future meetings.

Clan #1: Okay, how about if what they sell to you needs to be at a 25% discount?

Clan #2: Ha! 10%!

Hokage: 80%!

Clan #1: Come on guys, we're almost here. Can we meet in the middle and say 50%?

Hokage: ...Okay, sure.

Clan #4: I'm not voting for that unless I get my steelback waiver.

Clan #2: Well, how about....

[curtain]

Wow. Miss a day, miss a lot.

I'm moving to a new state with my wife/child while trying to outrun a hurricane... So my spoons are likely to be limited.
Yow! Good luck and safe travels. I hope everything works out okay.
 
By the way, @Jello_Raptor :

As I said above, I feel that your thinking on how the law came about is overly simplistic. I do, however, think the right of first refusal idea is a good one. I've got it sitting in QM chat and if one of the other QMs signs off then we'll implement it.
 
Proposed Seal Loadout:



   
Explosive Seals (training) 10
Explosive Seals (Weapon:2) 10
Explosive Seals (lethal, Wep:4) 100
Storage Seals (Empty) 20
Storage Seals (Food) 10
Storage Seals (Water) 10
Storage Seals (Camping/Misc.) 3
Storage Seals (Clothing/disguises) 5
Poor Man's Yellow Flash v1 10
Macerators (Sawdust) 5
Macerators (Burning Log) 5
Macerators (Pangolin Pepper) 5
Macerators (Mist) 10
Macerators (perfume) 10
Usamatsu's Glorious Life-Saving Purifiers 20
Air Dome Seals 15
Earth Dome Seals 10
Alarm Seals 10
Banshee Slayers 10
Banshee Seals (150dB) 5
Silence Mines 5
Party Trick (Red) 1
Party Trick (Green) 1
Party Trick (Yellow) 1
Banshee Fucker (175dB) 3
Goo Bombs (Kagome) 5
Goo Bombs (Jiraiya) 10
Implosion Seals 10
Force Wall Seals 20
Lesser Barrier Formation 50
Five-Seal Barrier 15
Directional Explosives (Wide-Cone) 10
Directional Explosives (1m, flat) 5
Directional Explosives (6m, flat) 5
Skytower Sets (6 seals) 2
Skywalker pairs (2 seals) 30
Tunneler's Friends 15
This leaves us with 666 seals each, with a refocus towards seals we actually use. In particular, this gives us far more Lesser Barrier Formation seals, which will help should we find ourselves kicked out of Leaf and needing to set up camp in the wilderness again. It also has far fewer training explosive seals (which we primarily used as bargaining chips, but are mostly worthless to us). The biggest asks here is that it means we want an additional 50 Lesser Barrier Formation seal pairs.

In total, this has making 446 seals which are not currently in our inventory to replenish only Hazou's seals. Assuming we want similar loadouts for Noburi and Keiko (and that their inventory is similar to our current inventory), this totals ~1300 seals, which is 108 hours of sealing time. Personally, I'd prefer to focus on our own stockpiles to overloading the market at this juncture, as 108 hours of sealing to bring us back to "safe enough should we need to flee Leaf" is a lot of sealing.

Edit: forgot to include Tunneler's Friends again.
 
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@eaglejarl

Note that I am trying to save you future headaches, and that I personally do not care about the justification for why the situation is as stated, nor does that particular justification really matter since it doesnt affect how we will come at the market.

That being said, with the current state of affairs/regulations as written:

There is literally no reason for the next plan to NOT BE

0) Check following with J man
1)Go to Shikaku Nara and show him the letter of our license and its rules
2) Outline way to break Explosive Tag market through a game theoretic strategy accomplished via purchases made by catspaws
3) Ask for startup money and help acquiring said catspaws

At which Shikaku will agree immediately and we will be making money hand over fist on a monthly basis.


By the way, @Jello_Raptor :

As I said above, I feel that your thinking on how the law came about is overly simplistic. I do, however, think the right of first refusal idea is a good one. I've got it sitting in QM chat and if one of the other QMs signs off then we'll implement it.
Good!

"Thank you Quirinus your wisdom is now quite evident and I am sorry for disputing it." :D

 
There is literally no reason for the next plan to NOT BE

0) Check following with J man
1)Go to Shikaku Nara and show him the letter of our license and its rules
2) Outline way to break Explosive Tag market through a game theoretic strategy accomplished via purchases made by catspaws
3) Ask for startup money and help acquiring said catspaws

At which Shikaku will agree immediately and we will be making money hand over fist on a monthly basis.
Query: Would breaking the market lead to the destabilization of Konoha? Honest question, I'm not an economist.
 
There is literally no reason for the next plan to NOT BE

0) Check following with J man
1)Go to Shikaku Nara and show him the letter of our license and its rules
2) Outline way to break Explosive Tag market through a game theoretic strategy accomplished via purchases made by catspaws
3) Ask for startup money and help acquiring said catspaws

At which Shikaku will agree immediately and we will be making money hand over fist on a monthly basis.
Uh... correct me if I'm wrong, but we basically are the tower, so the suckers we're screwing over are ourselves?
 
Query: Would breaking the market lead to the destabilization of Konoha? Honest question, I'm not an economist.
Ah, no? At least it shouldnt?

It would get all the sealmasters who rely on this sort of thing for income fairly pissed , and they would likely lobby for the first refusal clause or something
 
Uh... correct me if I'm wrong, but we basically are the tower, so the suckers we're screwing over are ourselves?
No, we would be screwing over the other sealmasters. The Tower doesnt care, they make their money either way. Someone shit check my math

Seal Scalping 101:

Assume sufficient starting cash.

Buy ANY and ALL seals of price <= Tower rate, as long as they arent yours.

Put half of these back on the market at the tower rate

Put the other half at price > Tower rate.

Repeat.

No one will notice that you are buying up all their seals, but at the same time, demand has not lowered, so everyone who woulda bought seals will still buy them.

Except: YOU now have a massive share in the market volume. You will make money on this, if my mental sim is correct here.
 
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Uh... correct me if I'm wrong, but we basically are the tower, so the suckers we're screwing over are ourselves?

We the players are most certainly not the Tower.

We the clan are also not the Tower, and if we start acting like we are then the other clans will get mad at us.

Most notably, we have separate finances.
 
Proposed Seal Loadout:





   
Explosive Seals (training) 10k
Explosive Seals (Weapon:2) 10k
Explosive Seals (lethal, Wep:4) 100k
Storage Seals (Empty) 20
Storage Seals (Food) 10
Storage Seals (Water) 10
Storage Seals (Camping/Misc.) 3
Storage Seals (Clothing/disguises) 5
Poor Man's Yellow Flash v1 10
Macerators (Sawdust) 5
Macerators (Burning Log) 5
Macerators (Pangolin Pepper) 5
Macerators (Mist) 10
Macerators (perfume) 10
Usamatsu's Glorious Life-Saving Purifiers 20
Air Dome Seals 15
Earth Dome Seals 10
Alarm Seals 10
Banshee Slayers 10
Banshee Seals (150dB) 5
Silence Mines 5
Party Trick (Red) 1
Party Trick (Green) 1
Party Trick (Yellow) 1
Banshee Fucker (175dB) 3
Goo Bombs (Kagome) 5
Goo Bombs (Jiraiya) 10
Implosion Seals 10k
Force Wall Seals 20
Lesser Barrier Formation 50
Five-Seal Barrier 15
Directional Explosives (Wide-Cone) 10k
Directional Explosives (1m, flat) 5k
Directional Explosives (6m, flat) 5k
Skytower Sets (6 seals) 2
Skywalker pairs (2 seals) 30
Tunneler's Friends 15

I think you made some minor clerical errors. It's okay, I fixed them.
 
I would point out that we should leverage our comparative advantage from seals in a way that benefits as many other parties as well. If we want uplift or even just security, we want as many power blocs as possible to want us to succeed (because it benefits them to do so). We want to be the app store or Adwords, not Microsoft.

There is enormous potential for economic gain by opening large scale intervillage trade. Not just from having an advantage relative to other parties (taking shipping from other companies) but also from enabling other parties to do so much more (specialization and utilization of comparative advantage since transport becomes so much cheaper).

This is why I try so hard to layout a proposal (which is not expected to be the final draft) where it is a win-win for just about everyone involved. MC merchants make money (with none being singled out for special advantage), the tower makes money, other villages make money (such as Mist), with a slight tweak the clan makes money and general population gets cheaper stuff. Lots of people profiting tends to turn into political support for the idea. Make it a transformative utility, like electricity or the internet.

Contrast this to using cat's paws or making an indirectly controlled sealtech merchant empire. This not only gives a direct target for opposition to strike against but also makes few allies and destabilizes the economy.
 
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I was just reading The Waves Arisen (rereading? It seems kinda familiar...) and stumbled on this bit.

Most of the larger villages tended to prefer hosting their own chuunin examinations these days, and only infrequently combined their events with another village's, usually as a show of force. Generations ago the First Hokage had tried to begin the tradition of finishing the exams with a tournament of genin from of all of the great villages. He'd hoped to foster a spirit of unity, and of friendly competition, but his plan had backfired rather dramatically when all eight of the genin that finally emerged from the second qualifying stage turned out to be from Leaf. Really though, that outcome should have been pretty predictable even beforehand, given the difference in population sizes; eight competitors just wasn't enough to statistically guarantee much representation for more than a few countries.

Now doesn't that sound familiar?

<3
 
No, we would be screwing over the other sealmasters. The Tower doesnt care, they make their money either way. Someone shit check my math

Seal Scalping 101:

Assume sufficient starting cash.

Buy ANY and ALL seals of price <= Tower rate, as long as they arent yours.

Put half of these back on the market at the tower rate

Put the other half at price > Tower rate.

Repeat.

No one will notice that you are buying up all their seals, but at the same time, demand has not lowered, so everyone who woulda bought seals will still buy them.

Except: YOU now have a massive share in the market volume. You will make money on this, if my mental sim is correct here.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're depending on making money based on "The tower sets their rate higher than people are willing to pay for money."

Like, yeah, if the tower subsidizes a certain type of seal, that's totally exploitable. I'd be surprised if the tower didn't quickly correct the price they pay for seals if the market suddenly changed though.

Edit:
For example, let's say explosive seals usually sell for X ryo per seal. I'd expect the tower to put their price around X/2 ryo per seal instead of X ryo per seal.

This means it's only exploitable if the tower really goofed up how they set their prices.
 
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No, we would be screwing over the other sealmasters. The Tower doesnt care, they make their money either way. Someone shit check my math

Seal Scalping 101:

Assume sufficient starting cash.

Buy ANY and ALL seals of price <= Tower rate, as long as they arent yours.

Put half of these back on the market at the tower rate

Put the other half at price > Tower rate.

Repeat.

No one will notice that you are buying up all their seals, but at the same time, demand has not lowered, so everyone who woulda bought seals will still buy them.

Except: YOU now have a massive share in the market volume. You will make money on this, if my mental sim is correct here.

So does this make the Tower Ticketmaster?
 
I'd be surprised if the tower didn't quickly correct the price they pay for seals if the market suddenly changed though.
At no point is the Tower paying for anything from what I can see? They're just Ebay, and we're throwing things to sell on their metaphorical marketplace. Half of what we throw on there has a predictated price.

Is this not how it goes down?

E: I mean, as written, the Tower does nothing here. They just get free shit every month. There might not even be a way to coordinate all this besides hiring clanless gremlins to buy every explosive tag in sight.
 
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're depending on making money based on "The tower sets their rate higher than people are willing to pay for money."
You're making money off of buying all the cheap stuff and reselling it at an equal or higher value. This shouldn't depend on the actual value the tower sets. The $$$ comes from how much volume you have and that you are making small to medium profit on at least ~half of each seal sold.


E: One thing that could be considered is that not everything on the market needs to be sold and priced at the same time. You could sell cheap at the beggining and tower price at the end of the month or vice versa. Same with selling high.

Regardless I think you might be able to just alter the proportions of your sale strategy wrt pricing here to make it work out for you on average. I'd have to do a few thousand random sims or something to check.
 
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Oh, sure, but sealmasters don't necessarily do sealing all of the time, as I've mentioned. The amount that labor is worth isn't necessarily equal. Clan Sealmaster X might spend 20 hours a week sealing, and the rest of his work week dealing with political bullshit that doesn't directly pay him anything, as an example. Or maybe Sealmaster Y has had a bad month in terms of his health, and has been too sick for most of it to spend much time making seals, but still has to put in his 40 hours of work making them if he doesn't want ninja breathing down his neck to ask where the hell his taxes are.

And perception of fairness matters a lot with respect to how people view taxes. A flat 25% tax on income you actually end up making can seem fair, especially if everyone else is taxed at the same rate, because you're only being taxed on what you actually make, so if you've had a bad month or have had lots of other demands on your time then you're not relatively worse off than anyone else. Being asked to spend 40 hours (or likely more, since most people don't have the Iron Nerve) making explosive tags for no pay, with your own materials (paper and ink aren't free), no matter what your circumstances in the given month are... well, it could be seen as burdensome. Especially in light of the fact that this is a special tax that only applies to sealmasters and nobody else.

Somehow, I doubt that the plight of the poor ninja sealmasters will inspire popular revolt...



But then the 50% rule is unenforceable as it. Right of first refusal would become its own accounting mechanism for the tower, since it requires people submitting counts of seals so the tower can choose whether to buy them.

The obvious stable equilibria are no 50% rule and price controls on all sold seals, or right of first refusal.

Edit: this is an environment where unenforceable laws fundamentally undermine the credibility of the ruling power. The more centralized the power, the less laws act as a standard for good behaviour and the more they act as a causus belli for punitive action.

Look at it this way: sealmasters have a large chunk of the market which they want to sell to at below market rates. Compelling arguments have been made that most sealmasters are clanners or similarly beholden to institutional interests. In that sort of economy favor is as valuable as gold.

Approach it from this direction: the Tower price isn't a ceiling. It primarily serves as a floor on what most sealmasters will want to charge their primary "customers". In a way, it creates the open market in the first place.
 
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No, we would be screwing over the other sealmasters. The Tower doesnt care, they make their money either way. Someone shit check my math

Seal Scalping 101:

Assume sufficient starting cash.

Buy ANY and ALL seals of price <= Tower rate, as long as they arent yours.

Put half of these back on the market at the tower rate

Put the other half at price > Tower rate.

Repeat.

No one will notice that you are buying up all their seals, but at the same time, demand has not lowered, so everyone who woulda bought seals will still buy them.

Except: YOU now have a massive share in the market volume. You will make money on this, if my mental sim is correct here.
I'd assume the seals sold below market rate are not sold onto the open market; normally in situations like this there's some kind of prioritization system which is hard to game. It's trivially easy to break if this isn't the case (eg. if Hazō exclusively sold his reduced-price seals to Kagome, and vice-versa (a strategy aided by the fixed, rather than fractional, tax scheme)).

@eaglejarl can you confirm?
 
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