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This assumes that scores will roughly be uniformly distributed after the event: i.e. equally likely outcomes, does it not?

I don't believe this to be the case. The points and relative rankings matter. We can't calculate this naively.
There will likely be some people we don't catch. I don't expect everything to go perfectly. The round lasts 22 hours. We won't likely have all our Pangolins by the end of the event, and if we don't any remaining people may well try to take us out. I don't see any reason to try to make this more complicated by trying this.

ALSO, the plan doesn't specify to do it in the last hour.



Because taking them and keeping them may be worth points.
Good point.
@faflec please specify to do this in the last hour, and only if there is negligible unconquered resistance. Its not really a big difference if we dont do this.

But:

To that end, if you are worried about people being leftover towards the end... why are we not spending resources at the end to guard and boobytrap the cells full of unconscious and chakra drained, yet still angry prisoners? All someone needs to do to sort of kinda negate our advantage here is to round them all up outside the building instead, like sacks of flour.
 
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This assumes that scores will roughly be uniformly distributed after the event: i.e. equally likely outcomes, does it not?

I don't believe this to be the case. The points and relative rankings matter. We can't calculate this naively.

Yes, it's quite naive, but it illustrate that our chance of making the tournament got bigger once we got rid of half of the competition.
 
Blue would take -225 to our 185 (410 adv)

They might get 185 to our 50, or 35 to our -100, either way (275 adv)

If even one Blue crushes round 2, and we don't get any prisoners, that blue team and our round one allies likely go on to the finals (15 people) I presume they would stack a super team blue against a weak team red to ensure this.

There will likely be some people we don't catch. I don't expect everything to go perfectly. The round lasts 22 hours. We won't likely have all our Pangolins by the end of the event, and if we don't any remaining people may well try to take us out. I don't see any reason to try to make this more complicated by trying this.

ALSO, the plan doesn't specify to do it in the last hour.



Because taking them and keeping them may be worth points.

If we don't ensure maximum penalties on blue, we probably don't make it to the finals, even on an otherwise fully successful rampage.
 
Right, I agree with you Re: Pain Train.

We can spend the last hour of the event dragging some nobody Red from their cell and forcing him to return the documents to proctor HQ. Even if we have to carry him there. Do this for the 3 other Red Teams.

At this point, either everyone is in a cell or we failed miserably in every aspect of this plan, so I don't see the risk here.

I think the chances of us missing even a few ninja during the "focus on keeping the pain train running" are high enough that it isn't worth it for us to transport prisoners once we've run dry and ragged. Especially since we'll be a massive target due to our actions and word halves.
 
@faflec Its not the Reds we need to be concerned about, its the Blues. Re:
If we don't ensure maximum penalties on blue, we probably don't make it to the finals, even on an otherwise fully successful rampage.

@faflec @Enjou @Cariyaga

We need to do something to ensure the prisoners remain imprisoned. If some straggler goes and just throws them outside the cell then we lose a massive amount of relative points. Can we go around and MEW the cells shut (leave airways) after we have cleared the last location?
 
There will likely be some people we don't catch. I don't expect everything to go perfectly. The round lasts 22 hours. We won't likely have all our Pangolins by the end of the event, and if we don't any remaining people may well try to take us out. I don't see any reason to try to make this more complicated by trying this.

ALSO, the plan doesn't specify to do it in the last hour.



Because taking them and keeping them may be worth points.

Then we should store them in the summon realm, to ensure they can't be retrieved by enemies, and somehow make the impression that Keiko isn't someone it's even possible to blackmail.
 
*sigh* fuck it poll time.

Do we destroy documents? Or do we let Red Teams turn them in before ?
  • Like if you want us to destroy documents.
  • Hugs if you want us to let Red Teams turn them in before sticking them back in a cell.
 
But:

To that end, if you are worried about people being leftover towards the end... why are we not spending resources at the end to guard and boobytrap the cells full of unconscious and chakra drained, yet still angry prisoners? All someone needs to do to sort of kinda negate our advantage here is to round them all up outside the building instead, like sacks of flour.

Booby trapping takes time. And frankly given their moderate consequences they're not going to want to fight more.
 
*sigh* fuck it poll time.

Do we destroy documents? Or do we let Red Teams turn them in before ?
  • Like if you want us to destroy documents.
  • Hugs if you want us to let Red Teams turn them in before sticking them back in a cell.
Only if theres like a handful of people still uncaptured.
Booby trapping takes time. And frankly given their moderate consequences they're not going to want to fight more.
BUT THATS NOT THE REAL PROBLEM!:

@faflec Its not the Reds we need to be concerned about, its the Blues. Re:


@faflec @Enjou @Cariyaga

We need to do something to ensure the prisoners remain imprisoned. If some straggler goes and just throws them outside the cell then we lose a massive amount of relative points. Can we go around and MEW the cells shut (leave airways) after we have cleared the last location?
 
I do love how wildly our confidence swings based on the source of the threat. We are like ~30% sure we can knock out everyone who doesn't flee before our wrath, but are terrified of one ninja who might possibly have an incentive to betray us.
 
@faflec Its not the Reds we need to be concerned about, its the Blues. Re:


@faflec @Enjou @Cariyaga

We need to do something to ensure the prisoners remain imprisoned. If some straggler goes and just throws them outside the cell then we lose a massive amount of relative points. Can we go around and MEW the cells shut (leave airways) after we have cleared the last location?

I think you're too concerned about absolutely maximizing the damage we do to the point totals of the opposing teams. Yes, it'll be helpful if we can, but taking their word halves should be sufficient to give them all a massive penalty anyways. Again, I'd guess it's worth a -200 point loss, based on being DQed for other events.

Only if theres like a handful of people still uncaptured.

BUT THATS NOT THE REAL PROBLEM!:

TIME IS A REAL PROBLEM! If we stop the pain train to try to booby trap things, we're taking time away from the expensive pain train that MUST be kept rolling if its to include the Pangolins we're keeping summoned.
 
I do love how wildly our confidence swings based on the source of the threat. We are like ~30% sure we can knock out everyone who doesn't flee before our wrath, but are terrified of one ninja who might possibly have an incentive to betray us.
Partly due to the dependence on Noburi and Keiko, who are notably away from most of the combat squad and with the non-combat potential betrayers.
 
I do love how wildly our confidence swings based on the source of the threat. We are like ~30% sure we can knock out everyone who doesn't flee before our wrath, but are terrified of one ninja who might possibly have an incentive to betray us.
I mean, all someone betraying us needs to do is disappear for a few minutes and give our targets precise details on where, when, and how we're attacking, letting them outmaneuver and demolish us.
 
*sigh* fuck it poll time.

Do we destroy documents? Or do we let Red Teams turn them in before ?
  • Like if you want us to destroy documents.
  • Hugs if you want us to let Red Teams turn them in before sticking them back in a cell.

Did we rule out just having us turn them in? Or was this in case the proctor says don't do that?
 
I'm working on it. Probably just make a MEW and be done.

Because nobody can bust through the walls of the cells? Honestly, I think taking word halves are sufficient that we don't really need to worry overly much about this, in addition to the fact that anyone with moderate consequences will likely not participate in the next round anyways.


Did we rule out just having us turn them in? Or was this in case the proctor says don't do that?

This is honestly better than trying to escort someone. Just do it, and what happens happens.
 
...

...

...

Is there any reason we can't pile them all up on a pangolin-sized bus and just... kind of... kidnap them?
 
TIME IS A REAL PROBLEM! If we stop the pain train to try to booby trap things, we're taking time away from the expensive pain train that MUST be kept rolling if its to include the Pangolins we're keeping summoned.
Full stop, CCNJ:

1) The Pain Train cannot continue the full length of the event, period. At most its a few hours. Chakra drain is too large. We have 22 hours.
2) If someone merely removes prisoners from the cells at the last second, we lose a pile of points.
3) Im not in arguing of stopping the pain train. Period.

Clearly we need to spend time to stop (2). We cannot bet the entire Exam on word-halves doing jack shit. Pain train will not last all event, so we can take care of it afterwards.

What part of this is conflicting with your mental model of how this event should go down?
 
The plan. I have a MEW set up to block captured Reds from escaping.
[X] Action Plan: Be Zabuza

OK!

NB: The main difference here is that Keiko is summoning more and more Pangolins. I still feel that we should continue ramping up our Pangolin count, since Pangolins are faster than ninja and should be capable of chasing fleeing ninjas.

Alright there's more changes than that now.

Word Count: 595

[X] Action Plan: Zabuza the Pangolin

  • If proctors won't be on-site all the time, how are they going to enforce the rules about severe injuries and about simulating T&I facilities?
  • If a Red Team turns in documents from another facility, who receives the points? Nobody, this Red Team, or the Red Team assigned to that facility? Does the corresponding Blue Team loses points?
  • Are Blue Teams allowed to leave their T&I facilities? If yes, how far could they go?
  • Can Blue Teams send chakra constructs (clones, summons) to scout the territory around their facilities?
  • If a contestant withdraws to a medic, do they lose any points for that? Could they still gain positive points? Could they still lose points?
  • Can one of us climb a tree right now, to try and find our facility?
  • If someone suffers a lasting injury this round, will they receive a penalty for this injury at the end of the next round as well?
  • For Blue Teams, does putting Red Team members into unconsciousness count as restraining them?
  • Brief teammates on plan with handsigns.
Prep: Consider talking in Air Dome for OPSEC/protection.
  • Word-halves:
    • Teammates deserve a share, but possessing people's word-halves will be dangerous after this round.
    • State that we intend to publicize possession of the word-halves we've taken.
    • Trade (real) explosives for letting us take word-halves.
  • Friendly participants: We want to let some people keep their word-halves (ISC); do others have similar wishes?
    • Max: 1 friendly per teammate.
    • Confront Doigama if he doesn't mention his Wolf compatriot.
  • Distribute seals:
    • Explosives: Encourage liberal use.
      • Training tags for people.
      • Weapon:2 for demolitions.
    • Oxygen Mask: Protect from Doigama's poison.
    • Earmuff seals: Banshees.
  • Chakra:
    • May need teammates' chakra for Summoning.
      • Point out seals as proof of good intentions.
    • Check allies' reserves:
      • Pretense: Familiarizing to ease future transfers.
      • Note Kato's reserves. If lied, confront + consider drain-KO & medic delivery if team agrees.
  • Debrief allies on dossiers & general facility layout.
    • Be vague about Leaf teams.
  • Carrot and Stick:
    • If teammates seem to be uncooperative or suspicious note that we are flexible with taking everyone's interests into account.
    • Subtly drop hints regarding value of having good working relationships the Hokage's children.
    • Keiko reminds them that betrayal is unwise, slyly asks Pankurashun what Pangolins do to traitors (Intimidate).
  • Suggested Summons:
    • Pankurashun.
    • Pandajouru/Pangaya (once we can leave).
    • Panashe (might delay until after defeating designated Blue Team).
    • Other Combat Pangolins (summon as chakra costs allow).
  • Roles:
    • Scouting/Interference: Panashe, Doigama, Kato.
    • Support/Ranged: Keiko, Noburi, Gomi.
    • Assault: Everyone else.
Strategy:
  • General:
    • Scout ahead. Prioritize quickly obtaining broad view of situation and avoiding capture.
    • Overscrew enemies:
      • KO them. Avoid giving Severe Consequences.
      • Put Red Teams in (a) cell. DON'T make them Blue 'prisoners' which gives Blue Team points.
        • Escort a (restrained, chakra-drained) Red to submit their documents before bringing back to a cell.
        • Make sure they don't have explosives/seals to escape from cells.
        • Seal them in with MEW. Leave room for air.
      • Steal word-halves. Stick ours in Seventh Path.
    • Keiko: Intimidate captured top teams, stop them from attacking us R2.
      • NB: Figure out balance between too many people and not enough people attacking us R2.
  • Breach our designated Blue facility first. Clear site.
  • Afterwards:
    • Take enemies' chakra, redistribute amongst ourselves.
    • Give Moderate Consequences as necessary.
    • Dab some perfume on enemies (imperceptible to them, easy for Pangolins to track now and in Round 2).
    • Recover key/documents.
    • Scout other sites.
    • Everyone goes to deliver documents to proctor station.
  • Repeat for other sites.
    • Prioritize softer targets & Red Teams (harder to pin down).
Combat: Shock & Awe.
  • Use overwhelming force.
  • Keiko: Open with thrown Goo Bombs/Banshees.
    • Ideally use in open spaces.
    • If in buildings: May throw into enemy-filled rooms.
  • Assault: Engage stunned/immobilized enemies. Pangolins lead.
    • Hazou: Use Pangolin pepper Macerators, but avoid friendly fire.
  • Interference/Support: Throw explosives/Firelog Macerators to distract/intimidate (and also give Gomi light for Genjutsu).
  • Support/Interference: Watch for retreats/reinforcements.
  • For buildings: Breach everywhere simultaneously, clear by room.
    • Focus enemies, check traps afterwards.
  • Chase fleeing enemies. Don't chase individuals if hard to track.
    • Be careful they don't lead us into traps/ambush.
Contingencies:
  • Enemy teams blatantly violate rules? Fetch proctors.
  • Doigama/Kato: Maintain OPSEC regarding missing-nin activities/Leaf politics.
  • Non-top team candidates surrender? Accept. Drain them to KO instead of punching, everything else the same.
  • If turning in our documents removes us from this round:
    • Keep documents with us (e.g., Seventh Path) and continue rampage; turn in documents after rampage is ended.
    • Only escort non-top team Reds to turn in documents.
  • If we can turn in other groups' documents: Don't destroy them, turn them in.
 
Full stop, CCNJ:

1) The Pain Train cannot continue the full length of the event, period. At most its a few hours. Chakra drain is too large. We have 22 hours.
2) If someone merely removes prisoners from the cells at the last second, we lose a pile of points.
3) Im not in arguing of stopping the pain train. Period.

Clearly we need to spend time to stop (2). We cannot bet the entire Exam on word-halves doing jack shit. Pain train will not last all event, so we can take care of it afterwards.

What part of this is conflicting with your mental model of how this event should go down?
It can, actually. If we capture all of the blue teams, we'll have a minimum of ~3600 chakra worth of regen. Even if that's halved due to injury/nonrestful state, that's 75 chakra per hour.
 
The plan. I have a MEW set up to block captured Reds from escaping.
One thing you might want to clarify, since apparently nobody actually wants to vote for my plan: How many tags are we handing out to our six squadmates? I think eaglejarl will take "unspecified but signicant amount", but I'm not sure.
 
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