So, you're saying that if it's canon, it's actually nonsensical?
Yes.

(If I'm being fair instead of flippant: Most of the time, yes.)

From a Doylist perspective, Moloch doesn't violate anything I learned from MCS. To summarize:
  • Nobody, including Hazou, instantly becomes Bill Gates because price must equal marginal cost.
  • The world is not a post-utopian society for the same reason North Korea is not as nice as South Korea.
Working this into the story some post-hoc editing, but I think not that much.

From a Watsonian perspective: trying to root out the root of our divergent beliefs, I agree that people can be irrational, but not that irrational. In particular, I claim (1) trading with ninja doesn't make people a little richer, it makes them substantially richer and (2) this causal chain is zero links long.

(In the Molochian world, people who trade with ninja don't become richer so much as people who don't trade become invaded.)

I would be convinced that MC is plausible if presented with a real-world situation in which a large group of people banded together to make themselves substantially worse-off in an immediately obvious way. So, tobacco quotas wouldn't work, since they don't make anyone substantially worse off and there's several links between "growing tobacco in places that are good to grow tobacco" and "crops that aren't tobacco cost less." Joining the Jonestown cult would count as make a large number of people worse off, but not in an immediately obvious way. The effects of getting wasted are immediately obvious, but it's not clear that it makes people worse off, since many people prefer the effects of alcohol to its costs.



I can totally see noble clans using government power to enforce a monopoly on selling wizardry. In this case, price is still equal to marginal cost (because price is always equal to marginal cost), which is very low, we still have to explain why ninja society isn't post-scarcity (Moloch still works), and civilians do precisely the jobs they have the comparative advantage for, which requires zero government coercion to keep ninja out because ninja are at a comparative disadvantage.



@eaglejarl @Velorien: Velorien has my personal gmail (zook*) from when I (tried to) beta LUtD. I'd be down with double cruxing in chat with either of you, get this worked out with a bit less latency.
This is the part you keep asserting that appears to be the core of your objection: That the Merchant Council is making themselves worse off by maintaining their cartel. You also keep asserting that price must equal marginal cost. Neither of these assertions is correct and you have yet to provide a reason to support them.

To the first point:

Software has a marginal cost of essentially zero, yet people still pay $60 (or whatever) for a copy of Grand Theft Auto. You can try to assert that this point is not relevant to ninja magic, but you need to acknowledge that pricing is not as trivially simple as you have claimed.

Monopolies and cartels also demonstrate situations under which pricing and cost are disconnected. You have yet to explain why the Merchant Council is fundamentally and profoundly distinct from a cartel.


To the second point:

We keep saying this and you keep not acknowledging it, but I'll try one more time: The members of the Merchant Council are not being noticeably harmed by keeping ninja out of the market. They are benefiting from keeping ninja out of the market, because they are already wealthy and they do not want to change.

Would Leaf as a whole be better off if ninja got into commerce in a big way? Yes, absolutely. Would the real world be better off if everyone acknowledged that climate change was real and started taking serious steps to combat it? Yes, absolutely. We don't because of a collection of factors related to sloth, self-interest, and active propaganda/lobbying by rich people who would be generally better off and quite likely richer if they went all in on non-fossil-fuel energy.

As an aside, could I ask that you stop using the word "Moloch"? It's a pet peeve of mine, and "selfishness" is a perfectly adequate substitute.

I am not adverse to getting on a real-time chat in order to finally put this issue to bed, but it may be tricky to coordinate given time zones.
 
So from this we can infer:
  1. Something important is going to happen soon.
  2. Cloud was aware of it.
  3. Mist was aware of it.
  4. Cloud wasn't sure whether Mist was aware of it.
  5. Mist didn't want Cloud to know they were aware of it.
  6. Mist wants to be in a powerful position specifically in preparation for this event, instead of just wanting to be powerful in general.
Jiraiya hasn't warned us of any impending event, which is evidence that he isn't aware of it. We also know that Akatsuki works with non-Leaf villages.

So... blatant conjecture, but it's possible that Akatsuki is organising a combined-nations strike against Leaf, and no nation wants to signal that they're on board with this to foreign powers that might not be.


...

Feck.

Actually, Akatsuki wants a free-for-all battle instead of a collective attack on Leaf to make collection of bijuu easier. At least, if that's their goal.
 
So, you're saying that if it's canon, it's actually nonsensical?
More often than not. You have to remember: canon doesn't merely work on Rule of Cool; canon's conscious purpose is to embody it. That's why ninja are fireball-throwing battle wizards instead of stealthy spy-assassins. By the same token, the setting exists to serve the story, and the story's conscious purpose is to embody the Rule of Cool while having interesting things happening to interesting characters. The majority of irrational issues in the Narutoverse can be explained by "Because it's cooler that way/Because it makes for better fight scenes". This applies to every scene/event/ability/location etc. independently, meaning they don't and can't fit together into anything resembling a coherent whole. Hence canon is inherently nonsensical more often than not.

What about you, @Velorien, wanna chime in with some ominous but ultimately unhelpful expression?
I thought I just had.

Velorien: Spoiler alert, Akane dies.
I was going to wholeheartedly endorse this as accurate, but then I realised I wouldn't put it past you to somehow make her immortal.
 
As an aside, could I ask that you stop using the word "Moloch"? It's a pet peeve of mine, and "selfishness" is a perfectly adequate substitute.

I'll stop using it because it bothers you, but "selfishness" is not a substitute. "Selfishness" does not explain North Korea and there are situations where selfishness leads to the best outcomes for every player. (That is, neither implies the other.)
 
To the first point:

Software has a marginal cost of essentially zero, yet people still pay $60 (or whatever) for a copy of Grand Theft Auto. You can try to assert that this point is not relevant to ninja magic, but you need to acknowledge that pricing is not as trivially simple as you have claimed.

Monopolies and cartels also demonstrate situations under which pricing and cost are disconnected. You have yet to explain why the Merchant Council is fundamentally and profoundly distinct from a cartel.


To the second point:

We keep saying this and you keep not acknowledging it, but I'll try one more time: The members of the Merchant Council are not being noticeably harmed by keeping ninja out of the market. They are benefiting from keeping ninja out of the market, because they are already wealthy and they do not want to change.

Would Leaf as a whole be better off if ninja got into commerce in a big way? Yes, absolutely. Would the real world be better off if everyone acknowledged that climate change was real and started taking serious steps to combat it? Yes, absolutely. We don't because of a collection of factors related to sloth, self-interest, and active propaganda/lobbying by rich people who would be generally better off and quite likely richer if they went all in on non-fossil-fuel energy.

A minority of rich people, perhaps. The problem is that for a majority of rich people, global warming is a problem that only hurt their really deep pocket and not them and their family. Perhaps they notice the pollution, but it is often so diffuse that they don't care that much either. It's a problem of diffuse interest versus concentrated interest.

I am not adverse to getting on a real-time chat in order to finally put this issue to bed, but it may be tricky to coordinate given time zones.

I know there are problems with the worldbuilding, but which specific parts do you feel are filmsy?
 
This is a really good point and I feel dumb for not having noticed it before. (Then again, my only background in macro is micro.) I'm not entirely sure it works:

Thank you for the compliment. I'm afraid I don't understand what it is that you're not sure works, or why a macro versus micro background is relevant?
 
My problem is that the merchant council doesn't explain why we aren't in a post scarcity economy since some ninja are allowed to use ninja magic for trade. Seal masters can seel storage scrolls and the Hyuga can use there eyes to check gems.
 
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So, things we might want to do this update (though this is quite a few things, so might get stretched over multiple updates):

  1. Continue talking to Noburi and ask him if we can change our answer. Get de-crazied.
  2. Mari's birthday.
  3. Prototype gunwands. Show them to J.
  4. Research Macerator Gun Seals. And/Or: Research Casino Seals.
  5. Start training a civvi gunner militia (if J thinks we can do it, and sees no problems with it).
  6. Get licenses.
  7. Meet up with team ten, and fill them in.
  8. Meet the other clan heirs. Make friends. Try not to piss off our cousin (offer to assist him in his vengeance against Itachi to calm him down, if necessary).
Am I missing anything important?
 
My problem is that the merchant council doesn't explain why we aren't in a post scarcity economy since some ninja are allowed to use ninja magic for trade. Seal masters can seal storage scrolls and the Hyuga can use there eyes to check gems.

The sentience of chakra doesn't like stupid boring post-scaricity worlds. It wretches in its chakra-sentient way every time it hears "post-scarcity". It pukes in its natural energy every time it hears "uplift".

The sentience of chakra likes exciting cool ninja battles and will lend its power only in support of those ends. It is literally 'rule of cool', because the cool rules the magic powers you want to exploit.

EDIT: You think I'm being snarky, but it's essentially the explanation Worm uses!
 
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The sentience of chakra doesn't like stupid boring post-scaricity worlds. It wretches in its chakra-sentient way every time it hears "post-scarcity". It pukes in its natural energy every time it hears "uplift".

The sentience of chakra likes exciting cool ninja battles and will lend its power only in support of those ends. It is literally 'rule of cool', because the cool rules the magic powers you want to exploit.
Another good reason for blowing up all the chakra.
 
Thank you for the compliment. I'm afraid I don't understand what it is that you're not sure works, or why a macro versus micro background is relevant?

I'm coordinating working with the QMs on hashing this out outside the thread, and therefore trying to not engage any further, but the reason I lament my lack of macro is that international trade falls very much under its purview. I have a good understanding of why I don't want construction companies banning 3D printing houses, but am much fuzzier on all the effects of protectionism and why exactly it comes about.

But now we're at this weird edge case where there's no good real-world analogue for ninjas. They're kind of like foreigners insofar as they're notably different from civilians (including having drastically different marginal product of labor), but they also live in the same city, which makes them less foreigners. So I feel there's germane macroeconomic analysis and I don't have it in my head and I'd really like it if someone else here had more than the equivalent of an intermediate micro course to be able to explain to me what I'm missing.
 
In fairness, the dude's name is Kid (who would name someone that, anyway???) -- his age seems to be about the same as Hazou's, maybe Akane's presently. I'm not sure he'd be as old as F was in Shippuden?
Actually, his name isn't Kid. He just thinks of himself that way, because Grandmaster F has never bothered to ask his actual name.

At this point, he might as well just pick a letter.
 
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I know there are problems with the worldbuilding, but which specific parts do you feel are filmsy?
There's two different meanings of flimsy when it comes to worldbuilding: "unrealistic" and "insufficiently detailed". The Leaf economy falls into the second category, but we're working on that.
Personally, I don't think anything we've put out is in the first category, but a couple of players are asserting that the Merchant Council and its attendant legal elements are. (Unrealistic, that is.) I acknowledge that the MC situation is not stable and would break down in time even if the players took no action, but that would likely take years or decades. Other players may well agree with @bayesclef and @Oneiros43 but aren't speaking up, which is why we're trying to work with the players on it.
 
There's two different meanings of flimsy when it comes to worldbuilding: "unrealistic" and "insufficiently detailed". The Leaf economy falls into the second category, but we're working on that.
Personally, I don't think anything we've put out is in the first category, but a couple of players are asserting that the Merchant Council and its attendant legal elements are. (Unrealistic, that is.) I acknowledge that the MC situation is not stable and would break down in time even if the players took no action, but that would likely take years or decades. Other players may well agree with @bayesclef and @Oneiros43 but aren't speaking up, which is why we're trying to work with the players on it.

I do feel that you put in sufficient rationalization, but at the same time, it feels a bit flimsy. With some more work, it should be a solid foundation.

Anyway, even if you let ninja participate in the economy without restriction on their ability to use justu, I don't think we'll end up with a post-scarcity world, at least not with the justus that I know of and not with the low number of ninja and their exclusive focus on warfare.
 
My problem is that the merchant council doesn't explain why we aren't in a post scarcity economy since some ninja are allowed to use ninja magic for trade. Seal masters can seel storage scrolls and the Hyuga can use there eyes to check gems.
I'm not sure that a post-scarcity economy is possible under any circumstances, given that there is a finite limit on good and services achievable with any level of technology, but there is no finite limit on human desires.
 
@eaglejarl
Ah I wanted to weigh in with my thoughts but I'm at work and on mobile so it was taking me a while. I am mostly in agreement with @bayesclef here, although I'll point out that it seems like that analysis is entirely from a neoclassical economics point of view and has a lot of efficient market assumptions worked into it. I still more or less agree with the conclusions though.

I'd love to work w/ you guys on it (and I think that a lot of the problems could be mitigated without scrapping everything), but as mentioned I'm spoonless for the next couple of hours :(

E: Also I'm not an economist
 
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@eaglejarl

I think the MC idea is currently flawed but salvageable; particularly by making them a catspaw for the Clans to maintain their own monopolies.

The idea of even a very wealthy group of civilians deciding they can bap a military dictatorship made up of people who could make their heads explode, no matter how friendly that military dictatorship might purport to be, and say "No! Ours! Back off! Or we'll spit in your ramen!" strains my suspension of disbelief.
It happening in multiple villages that aren't as cuddly as Leaf just because Leaf did it that way strains it further.

If the MC formed with the backing of a major clan, with an eye towards maintaining their (the clan's) slice of the pie, and then became a battleground for Ninja politics, it suddenly makes a lot more sense.
You could even work in the distrust of clanless Ninja that had been previously alluded to, with the MC being a way to disenfranchise them.

This also adds a potential beatstick to the MC's sanctions. Not only will MC aligned merchants/tradesmen not deal with you, but your non-licensed ninja supported efforts will be sabotaged by MC aligned ninja.
That house you built with MEW? Darn'dest thing, it got knocked over by a chakra bear.
That field that benefited from an unlicensed jutsu? Infested with chakra badgers.


EDIT:
Alternate reason that ninja haven't created a post-scarcity society:
Chakra exists to communicate. Things made with/significantly effected by chakra tend to attract chakra beasts.
That house built with MEW really will attract chakra bears.
That jutsu fertilized field really will attract chakra badgers.

That book written on paper created with a macerator will attract chakra bookworms*

*Fear them. They have L-space access and know how to use it.
 
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Alternate reason that ninja haven't created a post-scarcity society:
Chakra exists to communicate. Things made with/significantly effected by chakra tend to attract chakra beasts.
That house built with MEW really will attract chakra bears.
That jutsu fertilized field really will attract chakra badgers.
I like this one.
 
@eaglejarl

The idea of even a very wealthy group of civilians deciding they can bap a military dictatorship made up of people who could make their heads explode, no matter how friendly that military dictatorship might purport to be, and say "No! Ours! Back off! Or we'll spit in your ramen!" strains my suspension of disbelief.
It happening in multiple villages that aren't as cuddly as Leaf just because Leaf did it that way strains it further.

If the MC formed with the backing of a major clan, with an eye towards maintaining their (the clan's) slice of the pie, and then became a battleground for Ninja politics, it suddenly makes a lot more sense.
You could even work in the distrust of clanless Ninja that had been previously alluded to, with the MC being a way to disenfranchise them.
Not sure I agree. Jiraiya is right; a free economy really is wealthier--for almost everyone, in the long run--than a slave economy. We don't have to imagine the ninjas as being intimidated by the civilians to accept their acting as Jiraiya describes them as acting. It's enough that a critical mass of them are guided by an enlightened self-interest.

In the real world, New York was once a slaveholding society. Slavery was gradually abolished over an approximately 30 year period at the beginning of the 19th century. I do not think for a moment it was abolished because white slaveowners were intimidated by their black slaves, nor because lots and lots of whites in that time and place were moved by human decency. So why was it abolished?

I think it was because enough whites realized that slavery was not profitable compared to non-slavery.
 
EDIT:
Alternate reason that ninja haven't created a post-scarcity society:
Chakra exists to communicate. Things made with/significantly effected by chakra tend to attract chakra beasts.
That house built with MEW really will attract chakra bears.
That jutsu fertilized field really will attract chakra badgers.

That book written on paper created with a macerator will attract chakra bookworms*

*Fear them. They have L-space access and know how to use it.
Oh, wow, that actually explains a lot. Like how the sky squid attacked us; we're a magnet when we activated all those seals, despite being in an environment where encounters should be near zero; we also haven't noticed an abnormally high amount of attacks because Kagome's defenses automatically destroy all intruders, and why the Forest Of Death exists; Hashirama basically created it with his Mokuton, creating a massive pulse for all the dangerous chakra beasts to head towards.
 
Not sure I agree. Jiraiya is right; a free economy really is wealthier--for almost everyone, in the long run--than a slave economy. We don't have to imagine the ninjas as being intimidated by the civilians to accept their acting as Jiraiya describes them as acting. It's enough that a critical mass of them are guided by an enlightened self-interest.

It's not just the ninja accepting it that gives me trouble. It's the civilians getting up the nerve try in the first place.
Consider that this would have happened within living memory of the warring clans period. Consider the awe that civilians have for ninja.
Consider how much easier it would be to work up the nerve to do something like this if you had some of the most influential ninja reassuring you that they were backing you.

EDIT: There is also the fact that the embargo system doesn't have enough teeth.
Sure, these rich merchants can tell everyone not to provide services to the military dictatorship made up of punch-wizards, but if even a small-ish number of merchants/tradesmen decide to defy them, what are they going to do? Hire thugs to enforce their will?
 
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