Alright, so, the Jiraiya plot, as I understand it, is thus:
- Minami has blackmail, and thus needs to die
- Chooses to send back Rockfall 2 without telling them any of this
- Creates a fake contact location in his network for a jounin to go to in ambush
- Places contact in such a position and knows the team well enough that he knows the team will split up
- Knows precisely how Minami thinks, and so knows she will send Kagome away and will go herself to the location where the agent was
- Has an error in description about the contact (said there was a father and son but the team didn't see any when they arrived)
- Instructs jounin agent to use an area of effect poison to attack rather than a decapitation strike on Minami, or any sort of continued subterfuge to isolate her
- Knows Minami so well that he knows Minami will attempt a frontal attack instead of working together with the team by retreating and putting up defenses
- Spends a significant amount of time in the summon realm before Keiko arrives (either because he can perfectly predict when the jounin agent will attack or has instant communication he hasn't used for anything else for reasons)
- Lies about half of his spy network being compromised and fakes reactions. Will require work in the future to perpetuate the lie.
- Orders the rest of the team home while continuing to hide his involvement.
So, now, he needs to convince Hazou and team that half of his spy network is compromised, hide and trust agents that he has which can do what Hazou saw, hide any instant communication technique if he has one, gives up any opportunity to leverage Minami politically, wasted at least several hours in the summon realm, risked a jounin agent against Hazou whom he knows has killed Jounin before (indeed, if we had gotten control of Hazou before the update ended, we likely would have killed the jounin with MEW), but has successfully killed Minami. Not to mention, there are apparently a lot more resources that he has at his disposal which he's just choosing not to use for "reasons" I guess.
Now, let's compare this to other options Jiraiya has. First, if he wants to preserve Minami as a lever to use politically.
- Speak personally to Minami the moment she got back to barter an alliance between the clans upsetting the balance of power of the Hyuga, earning his clan an ally, turning the opsec breach into a show of trust
- Requires that Minami have a high level of loyalty to the Hokage (which, Jiraiya would have selected Minami for before sending her with his adoptive family he may be willing to murder Leaf nin for)
Or, if he doesn't want to turn a liability into an asset, but just silence them:
- Send Mari to meet the team when they enter Leaf country.
- Have Mari take over and Minami go off on her own to return, where she's ambushed by the jounin Jiraiya has prepared to kill her.
- Alternatively, induct her into ANBU and whatever secrecy seals they may have
Or, if he wants to kill her immediately using one of his contacts:
- Send a message to a contact with instructions on what to do
- Have the contact ask for a bunch of highly urgent help which requires the team to split up, or requires one of Minami's particular jutsu
- Have Minami be attacked while alone while helping the civilian
Or, if he wants to kill her as soon as possible:
- Tell Rockfall 2 that Leaf would never justify the killing of the civilian sailors, and that Minami must be arrested to comply with the will of fire
- Have Noburi drain Minami and send her back to Leaf unconscious
Or, if he's willing to trust his clan that he's doing all this for:
- Tell Rockfall 2 that unfortunately, as they needed to kill the civilian sailors for the greater good, so too do they need to silence Minami for the greater good.
- Have someone kill Minami in her sleep.
Additionally, the "Jiraiya ordered this hit" scenario is pretty much all presupposed on the idea that Jiraiya can perfectly predict basically everybody's actions, but for some reason, couldn't tell that Hazou was gonna blow clan secrets, and then needed to scramble to pick up the pieces by killing Leaf personnel, rather than by picking Leaf personnel such that they would still be usable when Hazou inevitably blew it, or using his intense personal charm, charisma, and personality reading to turn them to his side.
So, if "Jiraiya needs to kill Minami," it seems like there are many solutions which don't require presupposing extra knowledge, power, agents, and schemes of Jiraiya's, don't require hiding a spy-network from his only true supporters, and don't risk the lives of his jounin agent in combat with Hazou or Kagome blowing everyone up, or any of the other possible things that go wrong with ninja combat.
This is in comparison to the "Yakuza angrily strikes back scenario" which requires:
- Yakuza force information out of Tanaka
- Uproot contacts and leave a ninja as a surprise to whomever is giving out messages
All of which meshes with their goals and knowledge and fits with Jiraiya's information.
