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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Zampano said:
But the Team Uplift conversation fundamentally did not engage with the idea that without the bioseals we are going to die.
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This.

What it boils down to is that there is a diverse pile of possible outcomes, but that the strategies that mostly lead to positive outcomes look like:

Option A: Nuke the shit out of them
Option B: Don't nuke them, but throw everything else at them, including the kitchen sink, and the whole damn kitchen, and the house that its in.

We're not doing Option A, primarily because of nuclear proliferation reasons, but secondarily because, basically, it would make Kei sad.

If we attempt Option B, and fall short of the mark, that's it. GG. Game over. TPK city.

And it will not be a pleasant game over. Itachi credibly threatened to familicide the shit out of us twice now. What do you think these psychopaths are going to do, from a game theoretic perspective, to ensure that no one else tries to take a swing at them ever again?

The results there will not be pretty. In the average case, every named character we give two shits about in this story in Leaf is probably going to die. They might concoct some nonsense to do the same to a few characters in Mist, if its politically expedient and they can get away with it. They will find Hazou's long lost pet rock in a dumpster in Mist and execute it after a public trial.

We don't get to take the high road and then miss the shot. That isn't an option here if you want a good ending. The squad isn't grokking that. And by and large, they haven't been grokking that. I figured that the big impassioned speech would have gotten the point across or nudged them a bit, but seemingly not.

This is the main event. We're all in (modulo doing some shit that would probably end the literal world) on this. There is no room to be hemming and hawwing about it anymore. It's game time, everyone on the squad might die, but we're trying to stop some psycho cult motherfuckers from ruling the world. That's the buy in, it's in the mission description.

And in character, Team Uplift really needs to dial-in lmao. We've been on a suicide mission for literal months now. Kid is saying he's willing to get surgeried by spooky snake guy to increase the success odds of this mission (and the success odds that everyone else makes it out alive btw). Please process that, Team, and after the initial screaming match is over, maybe salute this kid for having the guts to toss his life down as collateral on that bet, instead of simply calling him a lunatic and taking turns to lob tomatos at him for the tenth time in a row.

It is, quite frankly, getting really fucking stale at this point.
 
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Emstar said:
This.

What it boils down to is that there is a diverse pile of possible outcomes, but that the strategies that mostly lead to positive outcomes look like:

Option A: Nuke the shit out of them
Option B: Don't nuke them, but throw everything else at them, including the kitchen sink, and the whole damn kitchen, and the house that its in.

We're not doing Option A, primarily because of nuclear proliferation reasons, but secondarily because, basically, it would make Kei sad.

If we attempt Option B, and fall short of the mark, that's it. GG. Game over. TPK city.

And it will not be a pleasant game over. Itachi credibly threatened to familicide the shit out of us twice now. What do you think these psychopaths are going to do, from a game theoretic perspective, to ensure that no one else tries to take a swing at them ever again?

The results there will not be pretty. In the average case, every named character we give two shits about in this story in Leaf is probably going to die. They might concoct some nonsense to do the same to a few characters in Mist, if its politically expedient and they can get away with it. They will find Hazou's long lost pet rock in a dumpster in Mist and execute it after a public trial.

We don't get to take the high road and then miss the shot. That isn't an option here if you want a good ending. The squad isn't grokking that. And by and large, they haven't been grokking that. I figured that the big impassioned speech would have gotten the point across or nudged them a bit, but seemingly not.

This is the main event. We're all in (modulo doing some shit that would probably end the literal world) on this. There is no room to be hemming and hawwing about it anymore. It's game time, everyone on the squad might die, but we're trying to stop some psycho cult motherfuckers from ruling the world. That's the buy in, it's in the mission description.

And in character, Team Uplift really needs to dial-in lmao. We've been on a suicide mission for literal months now. Kid is saying he's willing to get surgeried by spooky snake guy to increase the success odds of this mission (and the success odds that everyone else makes it out alive btw). Please process that, Team, and after the initial screaming match is over, maybe salute this kid for having the guts to toss his life down as collateral on that bet, instead of simply calling him a lunatic and taking turns to lob tomatos at him for the tenth time in a row.

It is, quite frankly, getting really fucking stale at this point.
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Seconding all of this. Majorly.
 
I'm in favor of getting the bioseals just b/c the arc where we have to work around getting randomly mind controlled & blacking out & murdering people for oro sounds neato.
 
Jiraya told us a the story about deliberately flubbing an infusion in combat, and getting a visit from the Watchers. If they were real and had global reach to send him a sleep-paralysis demon the same night as that fight, wouldn't you expect 'imminent deployment of RERs against a heavily sealed fortress' to be the kind of scenario that merits intervention?

[χ] let the Watchers handle it
^that's the chi symbol, just to be doubly-cautious here
 
redzonejoe said:
This was Orochimaru's first plan, after all, and Mr. Immortal wouldn't sign off on it if he thought it was suicide.
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Come on. Mr Immortal thinks he can do an unlikely suicide attack and survive, because he's mister immortal.
And he's making the attempt because he knows that the consequences for failure are apocalyptic (worldwide mind control). His only realistic backup plan is "move to the seventh path forever", and that might not even be enough to escape depending on how the ritual actually functions.

redzonejoe said:
I don't know exactly what the strategy would be, atm, but between 3 S-rankers, 6+ summoners, the planning skills of the Nara and the rest of the combined might of leaf, (+Noburi!) I don't think our chances in an assault are that bad.
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We already ran this fight several years ago. Back then we had way more S-rankers from every village and not just Leaf, the planning skills of the Nara and an unknown number of other thinker clans, and a significantly larger pile of elite jonin. We almost lost anyway, and took heavy casualties.

We're the underdog here. We don't have the resources and backup we need, and if we fail then the quest is over within a year.
 
[X] Action Plan: Negotiating as Men

I think I do like this approach better than trying to play too much game theory with snuncle (and then annoying him by moralizing)

Though I suspect he will find this approach annoying as well. But it's hard to work together when you establish yourself as an untrustworthy person so his fault lol
 
FaintlySorcerous said:
I promise to push very hard to get it in a later plan. We won't have the same leverage to get an answer (probably) but I think we stand decent odds of getting an answer if we ask him during a research break.
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I respect your promise, but the objections people have to asking Oro won't go away after the battle, so I suspect it's much less likely than you're projecting without leverage.
 
Noumero said:
Preliminary ideas: (Assess their sufficiency with the team first; include their analyses. These ideas are likely insufficient.)
  • We exfiltrate Tsunade ASAP, she oversees Hazou's surgery.
  • Orochimaru summons Manda. Manda swear that, if he learns information that makes him strongly suspect Orochimaru caused Hazou's death, he'd revoke Orochimaru's Summoner status, and the Snakes would devote major resources towards hunting Orochimaru.
  • Hazou sets up a deadman's switch which would cause consequences that'd be worse for Orochimaru than Hazou's continued existence. (Don't share the details.)
    • Highly suboptimal. Ideally, the deal avoids this.
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I'd like to see 'Immediately after the Riftwar, open the rift, confirm that deaths near the rift on one end appear near the other end, then kill+rez Hazou to clear bioseals" on this list

Noumero said:
[x] Action Plan: Snuncle Warcrimes Experiences the Consequences of His Actions
Word count: <500
  • Meet with Orochimaru, as a SC. Topic: a complication regarding bioseals.
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Missing "Optimize all with Uplift"

Noumero said:
Eventually, Hazou's interested in exchanging additional binding promises (via oaths in front of Boss Summons, or something more robust) to lessen the long-term tensions between us runecrafters. Spitballing:
  • Hazou promises never to act against Orochimaru with lethal intent if Orochimaru promises not to interfere with Hazou's growth in power.
  • Hazou promises to freely share all rune designs in perpetuity if Orochimaru stops experimenting on sapient beings (by, say, creating non-sapient substitutes).
  • Etc.
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Ping me if you remove these, and I'll vote.
 
Funniest possible outcome: the rift is already open and Kakuzu was waiting on the other side.
Tsunade punches him through a skyslicer during the battle :D
 
T_of_A said:
Funniest possible outcome: the rift is already open and Kakuzu was waiting on the other side.
Tsunade punches him through a skyslicer during the battle :D
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Indeed, humorous. However, I'm wondering if any of Kakuzu's attempts at improving his own life expectancy would carry over, or if he'd just be like... a regular guy, without any chakra even. Tsunade's punch would kill him before he ever touched the skyslicer.

Hmm... would Sasori get his old human body back instead of being a puppet? Would Hidan lose whatever the fuck he has going on that makes him unkillable?

I can really just imagine a selling point of the rift being like, 'clean your body and soul of all the mistakes of your past, refresh for a new start on life!'

And somebody like Orochimaru with all those bioseals flinching away, repulsed by the thought of losing all his hard work.
 
[X] Action Plan: I'm the Clan Head, bitch.
Word count: <500

  • Uplift
    • It's not just the chakra seal. Hidan can detect our blood within the area we'll be infusing runes. That would be a disaster. Orochimaru's bioseals can defeat Hidan's abilities.
    • We'd jump on an explosive tag for if it would save your lives and there was no other way.
      • We don't see any other way. We need to go all out. The Akatsuki are an existential threat. We need every advantage, especially our runes.
        • We can't bank on Hidan being absent.
        • Taking two seals is just as risky as one but gains us Cannai.
      • We're notjust rolling over and dying.
        • Stress-test the 'Orochimaru' section with everyone. Ensure it's logically sound and consistent.
        • His attitude towards us has shifted substantially since we developed runecrafting. He's no social spec; this may be genuine.
    • We're all taking risks here - huge risks. This is ours.
    • We love you.
  • Orochimaru:
    • Order as clan Head that Kei and Kagome to show up.
    • Tone:
      • Respectful but firm. Negotiating as men.
      • Motivated by rationality - we value our life.
    • We have reservations about taking his bioseals. The advantages they confer are too great to simply discount but they represent a risk to our life.
      • Our incentives are currently aligned. What about after?
        • Our death would leave him as the lone runemaster, with uncontested Rift access.
        • We trust his honour, but it didn't stop him from threatening us or our sister when he was our guest and stood to gain far less.
      • He's the greatest biosealer living. We expect he could easily place a delayed or remote-triggered malignant seal on us while applying the others.
    • What would he do in our position, and why?
      • If prompted or allowed, discuss the below.
    • Speculation: Tsunade could not oversee the surgery and lacks sufficient biosealing knowledge to detect malfeasance.
      • Is this correct?
      • Could she examine us to detect seals after the fact?
      • Would he swear to her? If Naruto reinstated us as a Leaf nin in good standing, would malfeasance on his part violate his previous oaths?
    • We see two other avenues to increase trust:
      • Enrich our model of him:
        • Are there rational reasons he shouldn't plant malignant seals in us? Can we verify them?
        • What are his plans for the Rift once we win? Are they compatible with our plans (reviving Jiraiya)? Explain why we're looking for Jiraiya specifically: our scrying ritual, the results, the Toad Sages' confirmation.
      • Enact deterrents:
        • Would he swear oaths in front of Summons? With what conditions and penalty clauses? Time-bound oaths ending when we've learned biosealing sufficient to confirm we're free of his seals would satisfy us.
          • If he swears oaths, focus on the intention, not legalese.
        • We've enacted deadman switches but would prefer a more collaborative approach.
          • Refuse to discuss any details of the switches.
    • Regardless of the above, accept the seals and order as clan head Kei and Kagmone to get them as well.
      • Cowardice and ambition are incompatible, and we desire a world in which both the Akatsuki and death are defeated.

Same plan, but we should also bioseal Kei and Kagome as well. We should see if we can get three S rank summons not just one.

I'm hopping someone else takes the idea and runs with it, as I'm not good at plans, but if we go under the knife, everyone should go as well.
 
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