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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Cariyaga said:
@Radvic Consider having Panashe go to a leaf-nin outside the swamp for help? She can burrow under the sentries, and all she needs to do is find a Leaf nin that would take the hokage's daughter's summons seriously.
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Necessary for not-failure:
  • Sneak past the sentries
  • Find Leaf-nin
Necessary for success:
  • Leaf-nin quickly contacts Jiraiya
  • Jiraiya is able to use this information to his advantage
Necessary for failure:
  • Caught by Mist-nin
Consequences of success:
  • Jiraiya has up to a day to either end the exam or use the information as a tool against Mist
  • Exam might be stopped or modified
Consequences of failure:
  • Mist declares that Leaf summons are wandering their city, clearly a pretext for invasion. Significant political capital lost
Given that we don't know where Leaf-nin are staying, there are only a dozen or two? of them in the city, and Mist will almost certainly be able to use "we caught your summon wandering around Mist" as strong political leverage, I don't think sending Pangolins outside the exam area is a good idea.
Tua said:
Me too, which is in fact why I didn't write any terrorist attacks into the plan. Unless, of course, you mean the pangolins dropping letters and drawing attention themselves is now a terrorist attack.
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I guess I assumed that Pangolins drawing attention to themselves would be considered a terrorist attack by Mist. As I mention above, I am highly concerned of the risks of sending Pangolins into Mist proper - to my knowledge, summons are seen as weapons of war, so finding a summon in Mist proper would probably greatly concern Mist and grant them political leverage against Leaf. At a minimum, it would disqualify Hazou's team (with all the political fallout associated with that). At worst, it grants Mist pretext to unite the nations against Leaf should they so choose. Given what I consider to be low chances of success (I imagine Mist will not pass messages to Jiraiya from us, I don't expect Leaf-nin to find these first, and I doubt the ability of Jiraiya to do much with the information even if he gets it), I think the expected value of this tactic is highly negative.
Tua said:
Not very clear what you mean by that; is it that we try different proctors for different seals, try different proctors to talk to and/or bribe? Because yes, just relying on a sample size = 1 is a bad idea. We have the manpower to try multiple things at once.
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Fair, though I'm unsure how much manpower we have. I wouldn't be surprised if there are enemies skulking around our fort, waiting for people to leave, and I don't really expect us to get any additional allies to command.
Tua said:
This one I will give you but only because the wording in the plan wasn't clear at all. The time limit is supposed to start after Part 3) - which by itself starts at first day light +4 hours (so that would be around 8-9 AM). You can criticize taking too long to get out, which some people already have, but I don't think the opposite is true.
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My bad then. It does beg the question "is the potential gain from telling Jiraiya worth the forfeit" at that point, but it sounds like you've already considered that objection.
Tua said:
Do you have any better ideas what to do once we are outside the Swamp but forbidden from proctors to leave? We obviously can't start hostilities so throwing explosives or whatever doesn't work. And I really don't appreciate that you call trying to solve the issue verbally "whining" but whatever.
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I do not. This is a large part of why I'm against forfeiting - I really don't think that there's a high probability of successfully getting the exam stopped or modified, so I think that while we should make overtures at stopping it (i.e. take low risk measures to avoid it - use Pangolin-Toad messages to tell Jiraiya, attempt to get a proctor to stop it, attempt to hire a genin to do stuff with it) we should mostly attempt to mitigate the problems by informing others, collecting & defending our allies, and reducing the number of seals in play. I think we should also aim for as high a score as possible for all the Leaf teams, which is very negatively impacted by forfeiting.
Tua said:
That is not what the plan said. The plan said to make sure that each team has a tracker included. Ideally that would be 4 people teams with a "normal" 3 man team + tracker but that part would have been up for QMs to decide.
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Fair, I must have misread it.
Tua said:
This isn't a trading plan like the old one. The 1:1 trade is for Mist teams only and only until we can confirm that they got the same bad seals we did (to make sure that there wasn't any favoritism/there aren't multiple versions of the same seal in circulation and only we got the bad ones). Though I wouldn't be opposed to adding in a trade or even gifting of Party Tricks to specific non-Leaf teams in the end to generate some goodwill if people are interested in that.

If we find no allies, we'd forfeit after the dead line but this seems like a super unlikely situation considering our resources and the fact that one of the teams on route to us consists of three great trackers.
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I think it's significantly likely we won't find additional allies without searching for them. It's been ~10 hours and they haven't come to us. That means we've been throwing up explosives for several hours and they aren't here, there's only ~10 miles in each direction for them to go at a maximum, so it's not like it'd be hard for them to find us if they could (i.e. aren't disqualified or incapacitated) and wanted to (i.e. trust us). Notice that the team that found us was Akane's team - the one which trusts us the most. I figure that the fact the other Leaf teams didn't come to us has more to do with them not trusting us or deciding to follow different strategies and less to do with them being unable to find us. Additional time is not going to make them suddenly trust us. I also disagree with the 1:1 trade, as I think it cuts into our profits too much for too little (I don't think showing favoritism towards Mist genin in such a subtle way is worth it)
Tua said:
Correct, the reasoning of which is mentioned in the plan. Briefly: they wouldn't believe us at best, try to weaponize sealing failures at worst and we lose our trump card for politicking if we go public. We already give them enough incentive to stop activating seals by telling them the secret of the exam and how night lights are meant to suck their CP dry for no gain if activated before 24h of the end.
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Yeah, we disagree here. I think warning people of their impending doom and ways to avoid it is better than not doing so.
Torpling said:
If it hasn't been suggested yet, how about adding a
Step 0: Dispel
to every plan.
Because it would be pretty ironic if the whole thing was actually a genjutsu and we didn't catch it after talking about how cool a Kobayashi Maru would be a few days ago.
Although I doubt it really is the case, it would at least fit the proctor's mild reaction(he should know us and that one of us is a sealmaster, right?).

Clarification: As in, the proctor placed a genjutsu on Hazou that makes him think the seal is dangerous(not the whole everything being a genjutsu).
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I don't think this is terribly likely to be true, so would prefer to not include it in my plan for bloat reasons. That said, if you vote for my plan ([X] Action Plan: Keep Your Head), I'll add it.
 
Cariyaga said:
@Radvic Thoughts on feigning sealing failure via explosive seal/(tuned-down)banshee seal toward proctor?
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How would we feign sealing failure without actually causing it? It only happens if a Night Light is active, and if we destroy an active Night Light, it will have a sealing failure I think? Assuming that challenge is surpassed somehow, here's my analysis:
If proctors are gathering portfolios on people, it gives them something to say about us (though I find this unlikely). I'm unsure how likely they are to believe an explosive or banshee seal is a demonstration that the Night Light seals are an existential risk (which seems to be the concern) and not just dangerous (which Mist probably doesn't really care too much about - they can blame deaths on chakra beasts anyways). So, there are two primary ways I could see this play out:

  1. We successfully convince a proctor that Night Light seals might either explode or do banshee things
    1. Proctors decide exploding and banshee things are fine/not worth sticking their necks out to stop --> nothing is done
    2. Proctors decide exploding and banshee things are dangerous --> report to a higherup, may or may not lead to exam stopping
    3. Proctors decide exploding and banshee things are indicitive of more dangerous failures
      1. Long hair don't care Chunnin exams are dangerous --> do nothing
      2. Seems worth ferretting up the chain --> tell a superior
  2. Proctor sees through the illusion --> Proctor knows that we really want them to be concerned about the Night Light seals
    1. Proctor dismisses us as scared children who don't understand the world --> nothing is done
    2. Proctor decides it's worth letting people know --> a report is sent up the chain
So, I if it is true that we can 1) reliably fake a Night Light sealing failure without setting off an actual sealing failure and 2) mitigate the risk of going to a proctor's location, then it's only an opportunity cost, which means we need to compare it to our other actions and decide if it's more valuable. As it probably only takes a few minutes, it's probably worth? I'm not going to touch it until I see a solid proposal to avoid an actual sealing failure when doing this though.
 
Radvic said:
How would we feign sealing failure without actually causing it? It only happens if a Night Light is active, and if we destroy an active Night Light, it will have a sealing failure I think? Assuming that challenge is surpassed somehow, here's my analysis:
If proctors are gathering portfolios on people, it gives them something to say about us (though I find this unlikely). I'm unsure how likely they are to believe an explosive or banshee seal is a demonstration that the Night Light seals are an existential risk (which seems to be the concern) and not just dangerous (which Mist probably doesn't really care too much about - they can blame deaths on chakra beasts anyways). So, there are two primary ways I could see this play out:

  1. We successfully convince a proctor that Night Light seals might either explode or do banshee things
    1. Proctors decide exploding and banshee things are fine/not worth sticking their necks out to stop --> nothing is done
    2. Proctors decide exploding and banshee things are dangerous --> report to a higherup, may or may not lead to exam stopping
    3. Proctors decide exploding and banshee things are indicitive of more dangerous failures
      1. Long hair don't care Chunnin exams are dangerous --> do nothing
      2. Seems worth ferretting up the chain --> tell a superior
  2. Proctor sees through the illusion --> Proctor knows that we really want them to be concerned about the Night Light seals
    1. Proctor dismisses us as scared children who don't understand the world --> nothing is done
    2. Proctor decides it's worth letting people know --> a report is sent up the chain
So, I if it is true that we can 1) reliably fake a Night Light sealing failure without setting off an actual sealing failure and 2) mitigate the risk of going to a proctor's location, then it's only an opportunity cost, which means we need to compare it to our other actions and decide if it's more valuable. As it probably only takes a few minutes, it's probably worth? I'm not going to touch it until I see a solid proposal to avoid an actual sealing failure when doing this though.
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My idea was having Hazou seal up an explosive/banshee seal within the single token he has along with a Party Trick (the Night Lights cycle colors slowly, so it shouldn't be obvious), and drop it into water. As long as he gets the timing right, it hits the water, goes kerblooey, everyone makes a big huff.

Alternatively, we can have Shino help us out by having his bugs 'suddenly' emerge from it. Lots of options to fake sealing failures.
 
Radvic said:
Replace the explosives with Banshee seals (that Hazou can make), make Banshee slayers for everyone in the fortress. Set them to 160 dB.
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Don't normal Banshees cap out at 150 dB?

Radvic said:
Leaf hitake, Bakygan
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Hitai-ate and Byakugan, respectively.

Radvic said:
Provide the same deal as before: 2 lit Night Leight seals for 1 Party Trick seal, or 3 unlit Night Light seals for 1 Party Trick seal.
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3 burned-out Night Lights, specifically.

[X] Action Plan: Keep Your Head
 
Stolen mercilesssly from Radvic. This plan is more aggressive in securing cooperation and preventing sealing failures, while still refusing to give in in the exams, primarily in the following ways:
  • Panashe, or another Pangolin if she does not know the technique (which I would be surprised if not, it's a really good technique for subterfuge) goes around stealing the proctors' seal pouches and immediately unsummoning with it.
    • Meanwhile, we capture uncooperative ninja for Noburi to use as drainslaves to fuel the repeated resummoning of Panashe. Utilize Pandaa as a go-between summon, so that Kei isn't constantly blowing Panashe-level chakra.
    • Because of this, Hazou does not bother creating Night Light seals himself.
  • Hazou goes out on a single expedition to find a different proctor from the one before and feigns a sealing failure on accidentally dropping a token into the water.
    • He does this via using the casing from the one he has already, placing a bruise-level explosive or toned-down banshee seal in it as well as a party trick seal, and timing the explosive/banhsee seal's activation with its hitting the water.
      • Hopefully this gets him some gotdamn circumstance bonuses on it.
    • Night Lights change color slowly so it shouldn't be obvious that isn't what it is.
  • There are a few other minor changes -- they will be highlighted in red


[X] Action Plan: Gotta Catch 'Em All

This sealing revelation presents a serious risk which we should address, but is worth abandoning everything to stop the exams - everybody knew the exams were dangerous, it just got more real for us. Fortunately, our previous maneuvering has put us in a position of authority over five ninja. Let's use them to mitigate the danger as best we can within the context of the exam, and modify our plans based on new information. Remember that there are many powerful ninja nearby ready to deal with any incursions from the Out in case something goes terribly wrong, making an upper bound on the potential damage. This plan modifies our defenses and interactions with others to mitigate sealing failure risks, and includes four concrete actions to prevent sealing catastrophes (pangolin message to Jiraiya, proctor warning, storage seal bartering for message to Jiraiya or sealmasters, and genin warning expeditions into the Death Swamp).

Part 1) Immediate Action
  • Our fortress presents on of the biggest risks of seal activation due to the explosives we use to defend it. Replace the explosives with 130 db Banshee Seals (lower volume intended still to disorient, but not destroy the team's own ears -- if the positioning of them allows for higher volume without harming any friendlies, go for that instead.)
    • Switching from explosive to sound-based should reduce the chance of triggering a sealing failure
    • Give out Banshee Slayer earmuffs to everyone at the base. Or stick it under the headband, whichever's easier.
  • Keep watches - sleep in shifts, as needed, with majority awake at all times.
  • Make an obvious entrance to our fortress (if not already done) and light it with a single Party Trick Seal
    • We want a clear entrance to the fortress, and want a place for customers to come, demonstrate that we're sealmasters (Party Trick Seal), but hide the extent of the number of PTS we can make (hence only one). If asked, describe the Party Trick Seal as a modified Night Light Seal
  • Use explosives occasionally to signal where we are, double frequency during the night (now 2 / hour).
  • Only have Hazou make ~300 night light seals to store in the Summon Realm (un-activated) for us to pull out at the end if Panashe doesn't bring back seal bags.
    • This is a safe place to store them, especially when inactive, and guarantees us a fair number of points for us and our allies at the end.
    • Establish a pay mechanic before we have people leave:
      • Individual pay = (num_seals_at_end * num_hours_worked) /(total_hours_labor)
        • e.g. If we get 3 additional ninja who help out for 24 hours and wind up with 300 seal points, then the six initial ninja get paid 300 * 48 / 360 = 40 seals each and the three later ninja get paid 300 * 24 / 360 = 20 seals each
  • Continue production of Party Trick Seals
Part 2) Night-time Allied Action
  • Have allied Leaf teams assist in defending the fortress, keeping at least a full ninja squad on watch throughout the night
  • Have whatever pangolin has best awareness (aside from our the pangolin responsible for the following section) keep watch
  • Send out Panashe to retrieve the other Leaf genin, using characteristics like Leaf hitai-ite, Byakugan (will be able to see you approach underground), chakra bugs, dogs, etc.) as identifiers, and then send them back to us. Lead them personally if necessary.
  • Have Keiko send a message to Jiraiya via Pangolin messengers warning about the seals (he should get this message within a day or two if he keeps his old check-in schedule)
Part 3) The New Deal (whenever someone comes by with non-hostile intent)
  • When our customers come, explain the situation to them - warn about the dangers of sealing breaches, mention the lost village of sealmasters (implying a sealing failure caused it), talk about the metal-beasts we've fought (from sealing failures) [Meta: Nope, opsec] talk about some of Kagome's more believable sealing failure stories. Suggest they take care to avoid damaging any night-light seals they see in combat, as sealing breaches unpredictable and can even cause damage to those who cause them from afar and (in our experience) target those who trigger them (e.g. the lose of Oliwhail).
  • Provide the same deal as before: 2 lit Night Leight seals for 1 Party Trick seal, or 3 unlit (burned out) Night Light seals for 1 Party Trick seal.
  • If the group is interested in the sealing damages and wants to stop it, suggest that if any seal master aside from the one who made these examines the night light seals, the danger should be clear, offer a sum of storage seals in payment to deliver a message quickly to Jiraiya or another seal master.
    • If anyone accepts, provide 10% payment up front and 90% payment afterwards. Have them hand over a night-light seal blank to Leaf-nin and explain that the seals Mist is using for the event are ticking time-bombs in the Swamp. Use Hazou's name, and say that any sealmaster should be able to see the danger.
Part 4) Second Day - Missions
  • Send out Panashe (or other Pangolin that knows the technique, if she does not) steal the proctor's seal bags via Pangolin's Reach, should they know it.
    • They should be disguised in whatever fashion they is able (pangolin-variant henge, etc.) as something other than pangolin.
    • If the pangolin is detected by a proctor upon stealing the bag, they should unsummon with the bag in tow. Otherwise, return to camp.
    • Additionally, keep an eye (and nose) out for any remaining Leaf teams (Identifying features include: Leaf hitai-ite, Byakugan (will be able to see you approach underground), chakra bugs, dogs, etc.): send them back toward us.

  • Send out multiple expeditions (not simultaneous) to interact with a proctor
    • Expedition Alpha:
      • Party comp: Don't send Hazou (need seal production) or Keiko (need Pangolin coordination/summoning capabilities). Include Akane, as she'll have witnessed sealing failures (and is a very robust combatant). Ideally include one deception-specced ninja. Equip the expedition teams with explosive seals (A and B-rated) both for use in combat and as a sign that they need backup.
      • Methods: Use Henge to disguise themselves as Rock-nin. When they find a proctor, describe a sealing failure they witnessed (pick one of the sealing failures Team Uplift has seen if we haven't yet seen a night-light seal fail, as well as big booms and keening sounds) and explain that there's a dude making seals in a fortress who swears that the night light seals are dangerous and can cause additional failures. Ask for more seals, explaining that they can trade them for non-nuclear options from the sealmaster in the fortress.
      • Repeat this under different guises and stories a few times with other proctors
    • Expedition Beta:
      • Party comp: Once we've got enough people around to defend the fort, request that Team Sarutobi (or whichever team is best at lying, or stealth if that would be more salient) go to a proctor and get a seal and then do the following:
      • Methods:
        • Hazou fixes up the casing for the single Night Light he has to contain both an explosive seal (bruise-level) and a party trick seal.
        • After activating both of the seals on the replacement token (so it'll glow), pull some sleight of hand, accidentally drop it into water, boom, oh no seal failure, etc.
        • Contingency:
          If Hazou thinks this is likely to, in itself, cause a sealing failure, use banshee seal, or bugs with Shino's help, in place of the explosive.
        • UPON POPULAR REQUEST: THIS IS NOT A NIGHT LIGHT SEAL. HE DROPS IN AN EXPLOSIVE SEAL + PARTY TRICK INSIDE THE CASING OF A NIGHT LIGHT SEAL, TIMED TO EXPLODE AS IT HITS THE WATER.
  • Continue production and defense of the fortress, summon an additional Pangolin to account for loses in personal for missions.
  • Send out an expedition to gather allies and warn genin (either after proctor interacting party finishes, or with additional personel provided by Leaf teams arriving)
    • Party comp: Don't send Hazou (need seal production) or Keiko (need Pangolin coordination/summoning capabilities). Include at least one combat oriented Pangolin. Keep at least 3 ninja + 1 Pangolin at the fortress
    • Methods:
      • If previous Pangolin reconnaissance found any Leaf teams, go to them, warn of the danger and offer them a piece of our fortress pie.
      • If previous reconnaissance has failed to locate Leaf teams, have our Combat Pangolin travel in an obvious attention gathering fashion with the rest of the team trailing, hopefully attracting Leaf teams (who know Leaf has the Pangolin summoner), or ambushes (which we should be able to defeat).
      • When approached by others, first warn about the danger of the night lights, then offer the trade deal of our fortress. If ambushed, simply defeat them, then warn them of the night lights (don't mention the fortress)
  • If Team Asuma arrives and is willing to help, have them start by going to a proctor and explaining about sealing failures they've seen (since they're social specced)
  • If we have excess personnel hanging around the fort, send additional warning parties, advertising the dangers of the night lights and trade (and baiting out ambushes to eliminate ninja teams and take their stuff).
  • Keep at least Hazou, Keiko, and two other combat capable bodies around to defend the fortress at all times.
 
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Cariyaga said:
Hazou goes out on a single expedition to find a different proctor from the one before and feigns a sealing failure on accidentally dropping a token into the water.
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WHAT THE HELL WHY WOULD YOU EVEN DELIBERATELY CREATE A SEALING FAILURE ARE YOU CRAZY OF COURSE YOU'RE CRAZY WE'RE ALL CRAZY THAT LAST SEAL MUST HAVE GONE WRONG AND NO ONE KNOWS AND NOW HE WANTS TO INVOKE THE DEVOURING SUN AND PUT AN END TO EVERYTHING BEFORE THE SPIDERS START COMING OUT OF EVERYONE'S EYESOCKETS AND IT'S ALL MY FAULT
 
faflec said:
WHAT THE HELL WHY WOULD YOU EVEN DELIBERATELY CREATE A SEALING FAILURE ARE YOU CRAZY OF COURSE YOU'RE CRAZY WE'RE ALL CRAZY THAT LAST SEAL MUST HAVE GONE WRONG AND NO ONE KNOWS AND NOW HE WANTS TO INVOKE THE DEVOURING SUN AND PUT AN END TO EVERYTHING BEFORE THE SPIDERS START COMING OUT OF EVERYONE'S EYESOCKETS AND IT'S ALL MY FAULT
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Did you fully read that sentence or did you just read "sealing failure" and start freaking out?
 
Alright, apparently 'feigns a sealing failure' and 'fixes the casing to contain a party trick and explosive seal' are not enough. Do I need to put it in big bold letters that he's not dropping in a night light? :p
 
Cariyaga said:
Alright, apparently 'feigns a sealing failure' and 'fixes the casing to contain a party trick and explosive seal' are not enough. Do I need to put it in big bold letters that he's not dropping in a night light? :p
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I would. You never used the word "token" when describing making the party trick version, so I had to assume the worst.

Edit: In fairness, it's fairly clear what you're describing, but the lack of explicit language makes me jumpy.
 
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MadScientist said:
I would. You never used the word "token" when describing making the party trick version, so I had to assume the worst.
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Done.

e: I'd like for y'all to, once you've calmed down from the panic a little, look it over and vote for it. I feel that a more active approach is warranted in stopping cascading sealing failures.
 
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Radvic said:
How would we feign sealing failure without actually causing it? It only happens if a Night Light is active, and if we destroy an active Night Light, it will have a sealing failure I think?
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faflec said:
WHAT THE HELL WHY WOULD YOU EVEN DELIBERATELY CREATE A SEALING FAILURE ARE YOU CRAZY OF COURSE YOU'RE CRAZY WE'RE ALL CRAZY THAT LAST SEAL MUST HAVE GONE WRONG AND NO ONE KNOWS AND NOW HE WANTS TO INVOKE THE DEVOURING SUN AND PUT AN END TO EVERYTHING BEFORE THE SPIDERS START COMING OUT OF EVERYONE'S EYESOCKETS AND IT'S ALL MY FAULT
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Again just a reminder: Hazou doesnt know if destruction of an activated seal is SAFER (lower chance of things going badly) or MORE DANGEROUS (higher chance of things going badly) than just leaving the seal to wind up by itself at all.
Relevant quote from chapter:
eaglejarl said:
"I have no idea what would happen, or if it would be more or less likely to go wrong.
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I'm not saying we just ignore the seal problem completely but treating destroying the seals as equivalent to causing intentional seal failure isn't at all accurate to Hazou's words here and smacks of panic-mongering.
 
MadScientist said:
Please don't risk a seal failure by dropping a Night Light into the water on purpose.

That's the thing that we're trying to prevent.
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Marked for Death: Where even a literal Mad Scientist tells you that you are going too far with your experiments. :D
Adhoc vote count started by Tua on Sep 19, 2017 at 3:52 PM, finished with 364 posts and 16 votes.
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Added a contingency upon discussion with Oneiros in discord that if Hazou thinks the explosive seal trick is likely, in itself, to cause a sealing failure, to switch out the explosive for toned-down banshee seal, or bugs with Shino's help.
 
For what it's worth, Radvic has stated on discord his intention is likely to add the Faked Sealing Failure to his plan (Keep Your Head) -- but he's not willing to change the paradigm of the plan by being so aggressive with pangolin.

So if you like the idea of using Panashe to steal proctor's seals, vote for my plan :D
 
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