- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Hey that's why we got our girl panache to take care of that. Nonstandard operations for the win
Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest
- Thread starter eaglejarl
- Start date
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- Tags
- naruto rationalist romance armageddon is looking better and better damn you kishimoto explosions everywhere explosives solve everyone if in doubt surrender to the mercy of zabuza it seemed like a good idea at the time looks like a really bad case of being a jōnin my god. where does the lore end? precommitting is the winning plan screaming in kagome screw the rules i have explosives something bad might still happen sometimes you gotta sociopath stabby zabby subsection c of paragraph 9 should include we can weaponize this so hard
Hey that's why we got our girl panache to take care of that. Nonstandard operations for the win
- Location
- UK
Assuming they are independent and identically distributed, which I would not assume.
FWIW, when one doesn't know the order of magnitude of the probabilities they're worried about, you should be preparing for "0 things go horribly wrong or 100 things go horribly wrong". It's comparatively unlikely that exactly one seal fails, except through explicit intervention.
Tua
鸡肉面条汤
- Location
- شوربة الدجاج المعكرونة
Oops, thanks.
We probably could wait until the first light in the morning as the risk of people infusing seals in the night is lower (make yourself a target with all the lights shining).
I will edit the plan tomorrow. Any input on the time limit before we forfeit? Keep it all the same except execute the plan in the morning?
- Location
- USA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That's unclear.
Thanks. I went through a few revisions and apparently I didn't clean it up consistently. Fixed now. Also, I corrected an earlier post in which I said "[The proctors] are ANBU." What I should have said is "Ren told you that the proctors are ANBU".
If the chance of failure is low enough, and they aren't used that often, and they are expensive so generally people store them very carefully such that they aren't damaged then yes, it might have gotten to this point without anything going wildly wrong.
I'd need to talk to the other QMs about inter-clan conflicts. Probably nothing too overt; Yagura was not really down for people squabbling in ways that would inconvenience him, and he had some fairly direct inconvenience-removal methods.
Night lights generally go on a table.
Minor bit of pedantry in order to avoid confusion later: you infuse a blank in order to turn it into a seal. You activate a seal to make it do its thing. Spending 5-10 CP to make one of these Cthulhu-summoners glow is activating, not infusing.
- Location
- Yes.
I vote that we don't forfeit. Hear me out: in the first 24 hours a lot of people are going to be wanting to get seals since they don't know the trick, only Mist-nin and us do. In the second 24 hours the Mist-nin and us are gonna be doing our seal stuff, but the thing is this isn't going to increase the chances by that much.
It's already been 5 hours, and I'm 100% sure that all the teams (that don't know the trick) will have gotten, and activated, seals. Chances are a lot of them have gotten into fights because #teams is greater than #proctors. I expect that if catastrophically sealing failure could happen it should already have happened.
It's not strong enough logic to not act per your plan, but I do think it's enough to justify not forfeiting.
- Location
- Australia
We know that a catastrophic sealing failure can happen because of Hazou's analysis. If containment fails (e.g from the seal getting damaged) then the chakra opens a large uncontrolled rip to the Out. To assume we are going to be safe because of the past five hours is gambler's fallacy, There is a good chance no problem will occur because teams won't want to damage the points but if there is an accident it will be catastrophic.
[CynicalMonsterMode] I think the important thing here is that if something goes wrong, it will not be our problem. We know the risk and necessary precautions, which means that our allies will as well. If Mist humiliates itself by getting a bunch of foreign children killed through its criminally incompetent recklessness in front every powerful person in the world, that's a good thing for us. [/CCM]
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- Location
- The Maple Syrup Mountains
Even without forfeiting, we can still do stuff like go to the edge of the Swamp and try to get the proctors to do something like get Jiraiya to look at the seal, which if successful would solve this debacle in a responsible manner (I mean, it could also be that the seals are actually safe and Hazou's overreacting, and if so then Jiraiya will look at them and say 'oh, yep, I see where he'd be concerned, but it's no big deal'). Getting Tenten or any other sealmaster we can find to look at the seals as well might help us evaluate whether the risks are actually that bad. Who knows, maybe Tenten's learned more about failure modes than us?
If this quest were non-simulationist, I'd be willing to make the Doylist evaluation that there wouldn't be an obvious danger like this if there wasn't any meat behind it, but given that MfD is simulationist (as far as QM spoons allow, that is) it could very well be that the danger is minimal and, even if we don't do anything, nothing really bad will happen.
- Location
- Australia
I don't think that would end well for us. We are J's protege so would have been expected to notice the seals (and can potentially be blamed for the seal failure.) A seal failure chain reaction on this scale is also unlikely to have localized effects. A portal allowing hordes of gaki and horrorbeasts through is a possibility as is Chakra!Godzilla or a nuclear explosion.
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Really I 100% agree with this. Also like @Vecht said this is the strongest concentration of ninjas you can ever reasonably expect to have. So if everything goes tits up whe have like 100 jounin and 5 s rankers to handle it
Hazou has been his protege for, like, a month, and it's not his responsibility to notice these things because what kind of incompetent village hands out unshielded nuclear waste as children's nightlights?
There are at least 7 nations worth of ANBU here, plus the Kages and their impressive entourages, which probably include sealed beasts. Even if this gets as bad as a tailed beast rampage we'll almost certainly be able to at least escape from the ashes of Leaf's former most dire opponent.
Let them fight.
Speaking of which, we should probably be on-guard guard for another raid by the tailed-best snatchers.
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- Location
- Somewhere over the rainbow
A note: We started on this plan for International Cooperation, right? If that's the case, sacrificing a whole bunch of foreign Genin because we're not willing to disqualify ourselves raises serious questions about whether we, and by extension Leaf is actually serious about cooperation.
Who's more at fault, the child preoccupied with winning the battle-Olympics, or the entire city which allowed unshielded nuclear waste to be hand out as children's nightlights by the tens of thousands? Ultimately, this will stand as a particularly dramatic example of why there needs to be more systematic cooperation and fewer secrets. The obsession with privilege and secrets is the only way this nonsense could have gotten this far in the first place.
- Location
- Somewhere over the rainbow
It's not who's at fault; Mist is pretty much gonna end up with an egg on their face no matter what. The difference is pretty much trading our Exam performance for improving the likelihood that some more ninja survive the second round.
Also a horrifying note; The Death Swamp is basically the perfect place to deniably seal failure kill a bunch of foreign genin, because any deaths are assumed to be wildlife or somesuch, and ditto for extradimensional horrors.
- Location
- Phoenix, AZ
No no no, we started this plan because it makes us look good and gives us political power to achieve our goals (be they world destruction or world unification).
Of course, then there's the question of whether we actually want Mist embarrassed. The current Kage is pretty much the best one possible from our point of view, and while J didn't like the surprise, it appears that she is going to be relying on him to shore up her position, which in turn shores up his. If the games go badly, she and J are probably both out of a job.
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I mean we aren't trying to do a pacifist run. We aren't personally in any danger. Any one who really should be a chunnin should be able to handle a sealing failure. Ninja die all the time. We are literally in a death world. We should try to help people but not waste all our political capital that forfeiting will cause
- Location
- USA
I think that there's a very large amount of ground to cover under the "Cthulhu is bad, we should try and to avoid that" umbrella. How exactly we handle/prioritize stuff if we end up going that route is very important .
Because it went so well last time[/s?] let's break this down into a list of priorities as I see them:
---
In the hopes of furthering that goal, let's try and simplify things a bit: the side that's going "eh it's not that big a deal" might well have a point, but the nature of their action plan is simple: just keep on going with our previously-planned course of action. So it should pretty easy to narrow all of our discussion to two points:
[X] Action Plan: A bit too much Kagome in his diet, methinks
Hazō, upon due reflection, thinks back to Jiraiya's words on the relative "safety" of sealing failures when surrounded by powerful ninja willing to help you deal with them.
Really it isn't that much of a risk, and Hazō had such a cheeky plan for acing this part of the test...
Continue the previous plan as before, building Party Trick seals and treating any lit Night Light seals with appropriate, but not Kagome-level, caution.
e: This caution extends to kindly (and not-sounding-paranoid) warning any passing ninja to treat lit Night Light seals gently, so long as Keiko/Nara don't think that will perversely have the opposite effect, i.e. people trying to weaponize them or the like.
Bring up the whole "potential apocalypse" thing to Jiraiya at our next earliest convenience.
Because it went so well last time[/s?] let's break this down into a list of priorities as I see them:
- Stay alive
- Save the lives of our allies
- Save the lives of third parties
- Do well in the Chunin exams
- Strengthen/protect Leaf's political position
---
In the hopes of furthering that goal, let's try and simplify things a bit: the side that's going "eh it's not that big a deal" might well have a point, but the nature of their action plan is simple: just keep on going with our previously-planned course of action. So it should pretty easy to narrow all of our discussion to two points:
- Ought we to be meaningfully/drastically responding to the issue of the Night Light seals?
- If "yes" to 1, in what way?
[X] Action Plan: A bit too much Kagome in his diet, methinks
Hazō, upon due reflection, thinks back to Jiraiya's words on the relative "safety" of sealing failures when surrounded by powerful ninja willing to help you deal with them.
Really it isn't that much of a risk, and Hazō had such a cheeky plan for acing this part of the test...
Continue the previous plan as before, building Party Trick seals and treating any lit Night Light seals with appropriate, but not Kagome-level, caution.
e: This caution extends to kindly (and not-sounding-paranoid) warning any passing ninja to treat lit Night Light seals gently, so long as Keiko/Nara don't think that will perversely have the opposite effect, i.e. people trying to weaponize them or the like.
Bring up the whole "potential apocalypse" thing to Jiraiya at our next earliest convenience.
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- Location
- Somewhere over the rainbow
Wait, why would forfeiting to save everybody horrific deaths from sealing failures cost us political capital? If anything, this seems like it might cause the exact opposite effect, where everybody in that Swamp now personally owes us for saving them, and their Villages by extension.
- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Ohh because I think your risk assessment is several orders of magnitude to high. We look like paranoid idiots. We don't get to show of our strength so we look weak in front of the other nations