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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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But holy shit, can you imagine the real-world equivalent of this?

Hazou: Err what's that?

Mist Electrician: It's a lightbulb.

Hazou: That's clearly a nuclear bomb.

Mist Electrician: (points to blinking red LED) No, look. It's obviously a lightbulb. Pah! Kids these days! Think they understand electronics...
 
MadScientist said:
But holy shit, can you imagine the real-world equivalent of this?

Hazou: Err what's that?

Mist Electrician: It's a lightbulb.

Hazou: That's clearly a nuclear bomb.

Mist Electrician: (points to blinking red LED) No, look. It's obviously a lightbulb. Pah! Kids these days! Think they understand electronics...
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It's not a nuclear bomb, Hazou; it's a nuclear power generator in a container delibrately designed to leak its radiation out.

For a night light.
 
Mist, where the pretty lights rich people use to show off, can ocasionally explode your country and/or warp reality. And I had the impression things where going better than canon there.
 
Still in the process of reading but I don't care what anyone says, in my head canon Panashe is wearing a monocle and a top hat. Such an adorably cultured yet murderous little pangolin. <3
Totally stole the first half of the chapter by herself. :D
 
I am confused these seals have been in production for two plus years and they haven't been failing often enough to make mist think they are dangerous
 
Alright, so general strategies I can think of:
  • YOLOSWAG APOCALYPTIC VICTORY
    • Screw safety, let's win this thing. Make ~36*60 = ~2000 seals and turn them in at the end. Have our group have more seals than anyone else
  • THERE CAN BE NO OTHER COURSE OF ACTION APOCALYPSE NOW!!!!!11!111!!!
 
Oneiros43 said:
I am confused these seals have been in production for two plus years and they haven't been failing often enough to make mist think they are dangerous
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My head canons are that either those aren't the seals that where usually being sold, but the hush jobs made to meet the demand the Exams generated, or mist didn't want/couldn't to meet the price the original creator had and hired someone else to try its hand at doing the same thing, which the results is the atrocity we are seeing. Still the work of a utter moron, but one of a different kind.
 
I think we should mostly stick with the current plan and once our reinforcements arrive (Team Asuma and Kurenai, possibly more; @eaglejarl please confirm whether they agreed to come or not, you only mentioned that we talked to them before we got seperated). In the meanwhile, have Noburi or Keiko gather more samples from different proctors to confirm that we didn't just get a bad batch. Hazo will keep stock piling the Party Trick seals the whole time.

Once our reinforcements have arrived, we should send out teams to contact all other Leaf teams so we can explain the situation to them (split Kiba, Shino and Hinata into different teams so all teams have a tracker). Since they know about Jiraiya and Kagome and the fact that we are knowledable in seals, they should be inclined to listen to us and help. Panashe should also be deployed to help scout.

Our next goal should be to remove the faulty seals from circulation by sending out most of our teams (with a guard for Hazo who keeps making Party Trick seals). We should try to offer trades first and explain that the night lights will only stay lit for a limited duration (Hazo said it used 5-10 CP so some seals should fail earlier than others and in that case our claim will be more believable). Do not mention the potential for sealing failures just yet. If the teams refuse, I think we should actually go for it and fight them for it. We offered them an easy way out and the less people there are, the less seals will be activated.

And finally, we need to let Jiraiya know about the faulty seals but discreetly. Here is why: Not only will people not believe us if we tell them like that proctor, we also stand to gain by giving Jiraiya blackmail material over Mist ("I am sure that the Raikage, Tsuchikage and Kazekage would be very interested in the fact that you risked the life of their best genin with these shoddy seals, don't you agree, Ren-chan?") and don't embarrass Mist publicly which should earn us some brownie points even if Jiraiya uses it for politicking.

Now the question is:
Could we convince any of our allied teams to forfeit the exam to pass on a message to Jiraiya? I don't think we should forfeit ourselves since we need to make the seals and coordinate the operations but what do others think?
And lastly, I think sending a Pangolin is actually viable even if they don't know where Jiraiya is. We could instruct them to stir some public unrest so people will find them instead. Write letters and instruct the summons to throw them in various places (the content being "We need to talk to Jiraiya. Remember the Watchers. - HKN" or something like that; chances are we actually made up code phrases for emergency scenarios like these if not this situation exactly).
Further, we can gather more information on where Jiraiya is likely to be. Maybe Shikamaru or someone from our delegation knows where to find our ANBU or Gai or whatever. Maybe the Mist proctors will actually answer us if we can find one that is more friendly (so send someone that is not a Goketsu for this).
If we succeed in this, Jiraiya is very likely to convince Ren to either cancel this stage or subtly change seal load outs with something else.

Does this world have video cameras like canon or any other way to broadcast the exam? If so, would we be able to figure out where they are/would the Mist ANBU tell us? We might be able to get our message out that way.
 
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The Mist proctor we met didn't check for henge. We could disguise ourselves as a Mist team and state that we're sealmasters.
 
Tua said:
And lastly, I think sending a Pangolin is actually viable even if they don't know where Jiraiya is. We could instruct them to stir some public unrest so people will find them instead. Write letters and instruct the summons to throw them in various places (the content being "We need to talk to Jiraiya. Remember the Watchers. - HKN" or something like that; chances are we actually made up code phrases for emergency scenarios like these if not this situation precisely).
Further, we can gather more information on where Jiraiya is likely to be.
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On this, we likely can send a pangolin outside with a message for him to check things up on the summon path, and then send a Pangolin to the Toads with the information we need to pass and a seal for examination. Only problem is how the pangolin would find him, the public unrest thing could work, but is far from ideal, if you guys can work up something the above should be easy to apply.
 
Cariyaga said:
The Mist proctor we met didn't check for henge. We could disguise ourselves as a Mist team and state that we're sealmasters.
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Unlikely to work. Sealmasters are so rare that there is a high chance that one entering the exams in their home Village is going to be a known to both the public and the proctors specifically.
 
faflec said:
We should have developed a megaphone seal.
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Wonder how the mist-nin made those showers of sparks? If it's a seal, it's probably better for communication than exploding tags in the air, maybe we should try bribing a proctor for one when this is over?

Oneiros43 said:
I am confused these seals have been in production for two plus years and they haven't been failing often enough to make mist think they are dangerous
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eaglejarl said:
"Hazō, what happens if one of those seals gets destroyed?" Noburi asked. "Like, say, dropped in water or hit with a fireball."

"That could be bad," Hazō said. "It would definitely cause the chakra envelope to fail, and it would do it in an uncontrolled way. I have no idea what would happen, or if it would be more or less likely to go wrong. I haven't spent as much time on seal failures as Kagome-sensei has; I've mostly been focused on construction and methods of operation. Understanding failure modes involves a lot of theory that I haven't learned yet."
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The seals are more likely to fail catastrophically in combat conditions.

One proposed plan is something like this:
  1. If we have not already, check to make sure all the seals Leaf got are like this, and they didn't just have a few bad seals made to freak us out.
  2. We sneak to the edge of the swamp, find a proctor and request to go see Jiraiya right away about a matter to some urgency. Yes, we know we will fail this test and it doesn't matter, just take us there and check with your superiors before blabbing about this.
  3. We tell Jiraiya about the seals and he uses it to extract various concessions from mist, possibly including us "passing" this portion and various info about future exams.
Another Option:
  1. Find a Proctor and promise them 20 storage scrolls if they take a single one of the seals from their own pouch, and deliver it to Jiraya. No message. (He can do Skywalkers over breakfast, he can see the problem here at a glance.)
Tua said:
And lastly, I think sending a Pangolin is actually viable even if they don't know where Jiraiya is. We could instruct them to stir some public unrest so people will find them instead. Write letters and instruct the summons to throw them in various places (the content being "We need to talk to Jiraiya. Remember the Watchers. - HKN" or something like that; chances are we actually made up code phrases for emergency scenarios like these if not this situation precisely).
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Proposed improvement to the letters: Put the a seal in them, and write "get this to Jiraiya, he will reward you"

Cariyaga said:
The Mist proctor we met didn't check for henge. We could disguise ourselves as a Mist team and state that we're sealmasters.
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Mist might not even have a seal-master in this exam, and if they do, their face would probably be known.
 
Jello_Raptor said:
Okay, new objective now. We need to keep everyone from getting killed, collect evidence that these seals are dangerous in combat conditions, make sure we don't die, and generally break the entire goddamned event over our knee.

We have 38 hours. I don't think we'll be sleeping in that time.

Now, considerations:
  • People aren't going to believe us.
  • The proctors aren't going to believe us.
  • We should already have a chain of people who are willing to trade with us in about a day.
  • Exchanging party trick for night lights might be a viable way forward, but it's not going to be complete.
  • We've got some pangolin bruisers and sneakthiefs, we should use panache as information gathering.
  • Use our codes with the other leaf genin to at least warn them.
  • Get a cracked blank to tenten (i.e. a redrawn, uninfusable version of the seal drawn in normal ink) so that she can confirm. Probably toss Nara onto the list if they've got a smattering of sealing.
  • Generally be willing to hand blanks to anyone who claims to have sealing knowledge so they can confirm Hazou's assessment for themselves.
  • Talk to a proctor to see if they're willing to move seals we collect out of the arena, if not figure out a way to safely-ish detonate the seals. (I.e. tiny explosions are fine, rips into the out are not.). Failing even that just throw them out of the area where people are would be disqualified for going to.
  • Can we get panache to go find any leaf anbu/jounin team leader, and use them to escalate a message to Jiraiya? There's got to be some way for leaf leaders to keep track of the action.
  • @eaglejarl, @OliWhail , @Velorien : we need to know if Hazou thinks there's some predictable damage (e.g. a cut in some specific location on the seal, immersion in water, etc..) that will defuse the seal with no risk to the fabric of reality.
  • We really should test using the wakahiza water drain to get energy back out of the seal, unless Hazou overrules in charecter.
  • We need a truce 5 hours ago, and enough people on our side to knock everyone who isn't part of the truce out.
  • Even people on our side will likely hold a few lights in reserve, this is fine, I don't give a shit if we lose the game anymore. Our victory condition is no tears in the fabric of reality and no deaths to stupid bullshit like a night light seal damaged in combat.
  • We might need to go after the bags of seals the proctors are going for directly, soak them with water or something that will ruin the seals before anyone charges them.
  • After the fact, we're finding the idiot who made these and introducing them to kagome.
  • The right decision is probably for at least one person to disqualify themselves to get a message to Jiraiya. Bribes of seals are totally acceptable. Sakura has civilian parents right? I'd promise her (or anyone else trustworthy) 1000 storage and 1000 explosive seals to do this, that should be worth a few years of wages right? Shikamaru might be another choice if he wants to be lazy.
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Immediate thoughts: Mist might have taught cracked Leaf codes, broadcast in a cracked Leaf Morse code with our basically unlimited explosives.

Second thought: We need to deploy immediately. Only Sakura's team will not be enough. Use tons of explosive, broadcast to all Leaf teams "critical emergency, rendezvouz immediately". We need to shut down all the fighting, and we need to do so without any jutsu interacting with the night light seals.

Third thought: How the hell do we keep the Watchers from killing us if we have to cause sealing failure to get everyone to listen?
 
Sigil said:
Proposed improvement to the letters: Put the a seal in them, and write "get this to Jiraiya, he will reward you"
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That would make sense if we can send just a single letter but my understanding was that we don't know where he is, so the plan was to use a fair amount of letters thrown in various locations and for that the phrase should be sufficient. We shouldn't actually grab too many seals ourselves due to the risk involved and CP requirements.
 
Oneiros43 said:
Yes but if they where really as failure prone as people here expected there would be a large number of seal failures in there normal operation compared to other seals
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I imagine it's like the Samsung Galaxy batteries. While all had the potential to explode, only a few did and of those even less did that in a place where it could cause damage.

Now imagine a night light seal exploding in a room. Chances are, it wouldn't even do that much damage - especially if its put somewhere far from the bed of the sleeping child.

Now imagine said seal exploding near a bag full of the damn things because the ignorant proctor won't let you take any of them unless you literally infuse them right in front of his stupid face. That's a good way to cause a chain reaction, isn't it?
 
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Actually, this night light seal being so shitty makes a lot of sense if you consider that Mist's internal structure was on fire for a few months; presumably the sealmaster(s) who knew their shit died, and so now you have his apprentice, a jonin but not specialized in it, being told "you're now Mist's premiere expert on lights, make some shit for the exam" with the implied "or else" attached to the end; this meets all the conditions that I can think of.
 
I believe that the risk is that increased if the seal is damaged, vs if it run's out of chakra on it's own.

We already have a plan in place to get a whole bunch of leaky seals already, we could just build a sealing safety pit and test it?
Downsides: There is that whole weaponizing seal failures prohibition, and we might blow up the whole swamp with us inside it.
 
Guys, I'm sure you're all over reacting. There's no reason to do anything drastic here. In fact, we should be happy! We can probably account for over half of the total points if we have Hazou immediately switch to making the night light seals!
 
Hi, long time lurker. Great writing on both GM's and player's part, thank you everyone.

Also you've made me get my statistics course notes from their dusty resting place and make an account to share their revelations with you on this specific sealing failure scenario. Although now that I think on it, maybe this math has already been done elsewhere previously? In which case disregard this message except for the gratefulness I feel to you all.

Onto the math: Let's call the probability of one of these seals failing in a spectacular fashion when used "poootsfiasf" or "p" for short. Then the probability "P" of there being no failures when there have been "N" activations is:

P=(1-p)^N

So let's use this to try and make a guess for the failure probability. Assuming that the seals that have been used since their creation with no ill effects, and that they have been used about 10 times per year since their creation 20 years ago (numbers that I am pulling from thin air), this gives us 200 uses. Now, how lucky do we think Hidden Mist has been all these years? Let's say the cumulative probability that none of these 200 seals has malfunctioned is 99% (again, thin air, could choose anything between 0.00...01 and 99.99...%). So we plug this into the equation and have:

0.99=(1-p)^200
p=1-200nth_root_of(0.99)=0.00005 or thereabouts.

Further assuming that the quality of the seals used on the exam is the same as those that have been used in the past (because sure working nonstop is great for not making mistakes and who's counting assumptions anymore anyway):

P=(1-0.00005)^4000=0.8

So a 20% chance that there is trouble.

A nice formula for the relationship is also:

P1^N2=P2^N1
P1=P2^(N1/N2)

Which relates the probabilities of nothing happening on two different accounts (P1, P2), and the number of times fate was tempted in each case (N1, N2), assuming the poootsfiasf factor stays the same.

Here are some test values. Remember, P1 is the probability that everything will be fine *heh*.

N1 N2 P2 P1
4000 200 0.99 0.82
3000 200 0.99 0.86
4000 400 0.99 0.90
4000 200 0.9 0.12
4000 100 0.99 0.67
4000 200 0.999 0.98

As we can see, the biggest factor is how close to sealing failure Mist has been in the past

Best Regards.
 
Actually, I would like to amend my previous post that if we fail to come up with a better strategy that shows results after 4-5 hours IC, we should go ahead and forfeit so we can look for Jiraiya ourselves.

We were confident enough that the J-man could spin a victory out of using Party Lights and we are doubting if he couldn't do the same by pointing out that we chose to forgo promotion to save our fellow comrades from Leaf, our (future) allies from Mist and Suna and our temporary (for the exam) allies from the other Villages at the very minimum? All while letting Aunt Ren save face by not going public with this? Yeah, this is just inconsistent with our previous decision to rely on him.

If he can't spin this for a huge victory for our team and himself I will eat Panashe's top hat.

So this is what I would consider our minimum winning strategy and safety net plan. Now if we can come up with a way to both let Jiraiya know about this and remain in the exam, we should do that since that is even more impressive.
 
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