- Location
- The Deep Blue Sea
...I am straining mightily to stop myself from spending time figuring out how to make this work.no one is going to invest in a business that intends to make hibachis intended to be used by SCUBA divers.
...I am straining mightily to stop myself from spending time figuring out how to make this work.no one is going to invest in a business that intends to make hibachis intended to be used by SCUBA divers.
Oh, there's plenty of ways to make it possible -- simplest would be an underwater pressure vessel with air scrubbers.[1] The point is that it's a stupid idea; it doesn't alleviate a specific pain point and SCUBA divers aren't that big a market....I am straining mightily to stop myself from spending time figuring out how to make this work.
Ideas have literally zero value until they have been executed. Lots of people throughout history must have said "Boy, wouldn't it be great if there was something you could eat or drink or whatever that would keep you from dying of smallpox?" That was a common idea and it had zero value until Edward Jenner came along. His vaccine had value, and the science that was derived from it has value, but the idea of a vaccine was and is literally worthless.
This happens to be something of a hot button of mine, so I figured I'd chime in.
It is my experience that people consistently overvalue ideas and undervalue execution. If you go out to Silicon Valley and talk to any VC / angel investor / incubator, they will all tell you the same thing: They don't care about ideas, they care about the team in particular and execution in general. Sure, the idea has to be minimally viable -- no one is going to invest in a business that intends to make hibachis intended to be used by SCUBA divers. Beyond that, the investors don't care too much. What they want to know is:
- How many co-founders are on the team? ("1" and "4+" are both dispreferred, although 1 is less so.)
- What skills does each co-founder bring?
- How much experience do they have at starting and running companies?
- How much domain expertise do they have?
- What comparative advantage do they have over their competitors?
- How well prepared are they? Do they know their market, have valid strategies for customer acquisition and growth management, have plausible timelines for profitability, etc?
Similar example in a different field: I read a piece by one of the editors at Isaac Asimov's SF Magazine (Gardner Dozois, maybe?) talking about what it was like to be an editor at a major SF magazine. He stated that they regularly got letters coming over the transom that said things like "I've got an idea that's so awesome I can't tell it to you or you'll steal it. Give me a $50,000 advance and I'll write it and we can all make millions." They didn't bother replying to those letters.
Ideas have literally zero value until they have been executed. Lots of people throughout history must have said "Boy, wouldn't it be great if there was something you could eat or drink or whatever that would keep you from dying of smallpox?" That was a common idea and it had zero value until Edward Jenner came along. His vaccine had value, and the science that was derived from it has value, but the idea of a vaccine was and is literally worthless.
You might want to consider how many ideas have been proposed in the thread, how many of those have been immediately shot down within the thread itself, then how many of the remainder have been shot down in-story by {Keiko,Noburi,Jiraiya,Kagome,Mari,etc}, then how many of the remainder have actually come to fruition. Then think about the ratio. If you still feel that 'your ideas in general' tend to get turned into reality, you might want to consider if there's a little survivorship bias in your estimates.
Ideas have literally zero value until they have been executed. Lots of people throughout history must have said "Boy, wouldn't it be great if there was something you could eat or drink or whatever that would keep you from dying of smallpox?" That was a common idea and it had zero value until Edward Jenner came along. His vaccine had value, and the science that was derived from it has value, but the idea of a vaccine was and is literally worthless.
While I agree, uh... you may want to rephrase the first line. That's really combative.Oh god, we've had this argument before and you're still wrong.
The efficient market hypotheses only partially applies in our world, and the CS startup environment is one of the places where it's most applicable.
It does not generalize, to a world where production is costly, most ideas can't be pursued due to lack of skill or opportunity, and the pool of people generating ideas with even modest filtering is so small.
That heuristic you have works where you live and with what you do, it doesn't even apply in all of our world right now or in every domain, much less the medieval Earth, or the elemental nations.
Yes, fine I get that overvaluing ideas in real world scenarios is a common error that people make. But it does not let you similar claims about huge swathes of possibility space.
(And yeah, being annoyed with that error, in the context of the real the world is perfectly reasonable. It's just that I have an issue when people overgeneralize because they underestimate the sheer magnilude of their sampling bias.)
(Seriously, that you're a person, alive today, with access to a computer, other first world resources, and only a highly limited ability to make arbitrary edits to themselves, is incredibly weird. And it's very easy to lose sight of that.)
Edit: huh I just realized I misread Hibachi as Hitachi and was wondering why that was so useless. I mean, you probably don't need one rated for 10s of meters, but I'm sure tons of people would love one that worked in the bathtub.
Edit 2: I suppose the better way to put my argument is "When testing is costly, plausible hypotheses are valuable." (Where "plausible" is measured relative to the background noise of people thinking up random things)
I'm afraid PageRank is actually an argument for my side. Brin and Page shopped the idea around to Altavista, Yahoo, and the other dominant search engines of the day; no one would buy it. It was literally worthless. Then they went and executed on it themselves and made hundreds of billions.Going back to SV for a second, consider how much the rise of Google owed to PageRank, another simple idea that just happened to solve an important, emerging problem in a very effective way.
Oh god, we've had this argument before and you're still wrong.
Yep. It's also wrong, but eh.While I agree, uh... you may want to rephrase the first line. That's really combative.
See, that is an entirely different proposition. And unlike your prior one, this one is at least somewhat correct-adjacent. A plausible hypothesis is very different from a mere idea, and it has value in that it lets you complete execution more quickly.Edit 2: I suppose the better way to put my argument is "When testing is costly, plausible hypotheses are valuable." (Where "plausible" is measured relative to the background noise of people thinking up random things)
I'm afraid PageRank is actually an argument for my side. Brin and Page shopped the idea around to Altavista, Yahoo, and the other dominant search engines of the day; no one would buy it. It was literally worthless. Then they went and executed on it themselves and made hundreds of billions.
Yep. It's also wrong, but eh.
See, that is an entirely different proposition. And unlike your prior one, this one is at least somewhat correct-adjacent. A plausible hypothesis is very different from a mere idea, and it has value in that it lets you complete execution more quickly.
I honestly don't give a damn what restrictions or conditions or scenarios you dredge up: a collection of symbols in your brain is worthless until it has some reification in the world around you. A dog turd is more valuable than an idea, because at least you can use a dog turd as fertilizer.
Going back to @Roomba's examples: The idea for PKI is worthless. The actual existence of PKI is valuable. You (@Jello_Raptor) are insisting on missing the distinction regardless of how I phrase it, so let me try to break it down into Neji-sized bites:
- In the context of this discussion, things have value insofar as they affect humans in non-trivial ways.
- If it will save lives or improve the quality of lives, it has value.
- If someone will give you money / favors / services for it, it has value.
- If no one will give you money for it, and it won't heal the sick, and it won't right the wrongs, and it won't etc, then it is worthless.
- An idea is (to a first approximation) a set of symbols inside your brain. It is not a physical thing.
- Humans are not telepathic. They cannot directly perceive the contents of your brain.
- The symbols inside your brain cannot directly affect the outside world. It is only when you perform physical actions that you can affect the outside world.
- If the ordered set of symbols "A method of cryptography that uses different keys for encryption and decryption" floats through your brain, it is not valuable because it does not affect humans in non-trivial ways.
- The following scenario does not affect humans in non-trivial ways. As a result, the referenced ordered collection of symbols is worthless:
- [The scene: A smoky bar. Two friends, Jello_Raptor and Bill, lounge in the corner with beer and canapés]
- Jello_Raptor: Hey, Bill, my good friend, my best bud, I just had the spiffiest ordered set of symbols float through my brain!
- Bill: Really? What might that be, old bean?
- Jello_Raptor: Check this out: 'A method of cryptography that uses different keys for encryption and decryption'!
- Bill: By Jove, such a pipping good ordered collection of symbols you have there! You really are just the sparkiest of chaps, eh wot?
- [exeunt, to get more beer and then throw sharp objects at a round target]
- The following scenario also does not affect humans in non-trivial ways, and therefore the referenced ordered collection of symbols is still worthless:
- Jello_Raptor: Hey, Bill. Remember that spiffy ordered collection of symbols I mentioned when we were combining alcohol and small weapons the other night? Well, I created an actual method whereby I can use it.
- Bill: Most impressive, my good chap! What will you do with it?
- Jello_Raptor: Eh, it was enough to create it. Actually executing on it by marketing the idea and turning it into a product that other people could use wouldn't be fun and would be too much work, so I took all the notes and burned them and I'm never going to mention this again.
- Bill: Right you are, old walrus!
- The following scenario DOES affect humans in non-trivial ways, and therefore IS valuable:
- [The scene: The Netscape offices, 1990s-ish]
- Jello_Raptor: Nice to meet you, Mr. Elgamal. I was wondering if you'd pay me for the ordered collection of symbols 'A method of cryptography that uses different keys for encryption and decryption.'
- Taher Elgamal: No. That collection of symbols doesn't solve any problem I have or directly improve my product. At most I might consider putting an engineer on it to find an implementation, but the mere suggestion isn't worth anything.
- Jello_Raptor: Oh, pity. I always thought that ordered collections of symbols were valuable but apparently I was incorrect. I'll have to go find @eaglejarl 40-ish years from now and admit that. In the meantime, would you pay me for a chunk of code that implements my ordered collection of symbols in a way that will let your browser talk to remote computers securely so that your customers can do online banking safely?
- Taher Elgamal: Holy hellfires, yes! Here, have some money! And some more money! And some more!
- Second example, because you have repeatedly insisted that software businesses are different from physical-based businesses:
- [The scene: The salon of a wealthy patron of the arts, Paris, France, circa 1874]
- Jello_Raptor: Good afternoon, Mr Richperson. Would you please give me ten thousand francs for the ordered collection of symbols 'a canvas on which pigmented oils have been applied in such a way that they provide an impression of sunrise over the harbor at Le Havre without actually depicting it in a realistic way'?
- Mr Richperson: No.
- Jello_Raptor: Oh, pity. I always thought that ordered collections of symbols were valuable but apparently I am incorrect even when we aren't discussing software. Well, would you give me money in exchange for this beautiful painting that will kickstart an entire new style of art and for the sake of this contrived example we will assume was done by me and not by Monet? [holds up stunningly beautiful painting]
- Mr Richperson: Holy hellfires, yes! Here, have some money! And some more money! And some more!
Did I Neji that down enough?
JFC man Neji has a family. I mean, most of them are assholes but still...I'm afraid PageRank is actually an argument for my side. Brin and Page shopped the idea around to Altavista, Yahoo, and the other dominant search engines of the day; no one would buy it. It was literally worthless. Then they went and executed on it themselves and made hundreds of billions.
Yep. It's also wrong, but eh.
See, that is an entirely different proposition. And unlike your prior one, this one is at least somewhat correct-adjacent. A plausible hypothesis is very different from a mere idea, and it has value in that it lets you complete execution more quickly.
I honestly don't give a damn what restrictions or conditions or scenarios you dredge up: a collection of symbols in your brain is worthless until it has some reification in the world around you. A dog turd is more valuable than an idea, because at least you can use a dog turd as fertilizer.
Going back to @Roomba's examples: The idea for PKI is worthless. The actual existence of PKI is valuable. You (@Jello_Raptor) are insisting on missing the distinction regardless of how I phrase it, so let me try to break it down into Neji-sized bites:
- In the context of this discussion, things have value insofar as they affect humans in non-trivial ways.
- If it will save lives or improve the quality of lives, it has value.
- If someone will give you money / favors / services for it, it has value.
- If no one will give you money for it, and it won't heal the sick, and it won't right the wrongs, and it won't etc, then it is worthless.
- An idea is (to a first approximation) a set of symbols inside your brain. It is not a physical thing.
- Humans are not telepathic. They cannot directly perceive the contents of your brain.
- The symbols inside your brain cannot directly affect the outside world. It is only when you perform physical actions that you can affect the outside world.
- If the ordered set of symbols "A method of cryptography that uses different keys for encryption and decryption" floats through your brain, it is not valuable because it does not affect humans in non-trivial ways.
- The following scenario does not affect humans in non-trivial ways. As a result, the referenced ordered collection of symbols is worthless:
- [The scene: A smoky bar. Two friends, Jello_Raptor and Bill, lounge in the corner with beer and canapés]
- Jello_Raptor: Hey, Bill, my good friend, my best bud, I just had the spiffiest ordered set of symbols float through my brain!
- Bill: Really? What might that be, old bean?
- Jello_Raptor: Check this out: 'A method of cryptography that uses different keys for encryption and decryption'!
- Bill: By Jove, such a pipping good ordered collection of symbols you have there! You really are just the sparkiest of chaps, eh wot?
- [exeunt, to get more beer and then throw sharp objects at a round target]
- The following scenario also does not affect humans in non-trivial ways, and therefore the referenced ordered collection of symbols is still worthless:
- Jello_Raptor: Hey, Bill. Remember that spiffy ordered collection of symbols I mentioned when we were combining alcohol and small weapons the other night? Well, I created an actual method whereby I can use it.
- Bill: Most impressive, my good chap! What will you do with it?
- Jello_Raptor: Eh, it was enough to create it. Actually executing on it by marketing the idea and turning it into a product that other people could use wouldn't be fun and would be too much work, so I took all the notes and burned them and I'm never going to mention this again.
- Bill: Right you are, old walrus!
- The following scenario DOES affect humans in non-trivial ways, and therefore IS valuable:
- [The scene: The Netscape offices, 1990s-ish]
- Jello_Raptor: Nice to meet you, Mr. Elgamal. I was wondering if you'd pay me for the ordered collection of symbols 'A method of cryptography that uses different keys for encryption and decryption.'
- Taher Elgamal: No. That collection of symbols doesn't solve any problem I have or directly improve my product. At most I might consider putting an engineer on it to find an implementation, but the mere suggestion isn't worth anything.
- Jello_Raptor: Oh, pity. I always thought that ordered collections of symbols were valuable but apparently I was incorrect. I'll have to go find @eaglejarl 40-ish years from now and admit that. In the meantime, would you pay me for a chunk of code that implements my ordered collection of symbols in a way that will let your browser talk to remote computers securely so that your customers can do online banking safely?
- Taher Elgamal: Holy hellfires, yes! Here, have some money! And some more money! And some more!
- Second example, because you have repeatedly insisted that software businesses are different from physical-based businesses:
- [The scene: The salon of a wealthy patron of the arts, Paris, France, circa 1874]
- Jello_Raptor: Good afternoon, Mr Richperson. Would you please give me ten thousand francs for the ordered collection of symbols 'a canvas on which pigmented oils have been applied in such a way that they provide an impression of sunrise over the harbor at Le Havre without actually depicting it in a realistic way'?
- Mr Richperson: No.
- Jello_Raptor: Oh, pity. I always thought that ordered collections of symbols were valuable but apparently I am incorrect even when we aren't discussing software. Well, would you give me money in exchange for this beautiful painting that will kickstart an entire new style of art and for the sake of this contrived example we will assume was done by me and not by Monet? [holds up stunningly beautiful painting]
- Mr Richperson: Holy hellfires, yes! Here, have some money! And some more money! And some more!
Did I Neji that down enough?
Let's be real: The only reason he'd be promoted to chuunin is for political reasons. He's incapable of performing the duties inherent in it.JFC man Neji has a family. I mean, most of them are assholes but still...
Or wartime promotions, which presumably are a thing.Let's be real: The only reason he'd be promoted to chuunin is for political reasons. He's incapable of performing the duties inherent in it.
I'm afraid PageRank is actually an argument for my side. Brin and Page shopped the idea around to Altavista, Yahoo, and the other dominant search engines of the day; no one would buy it. It was literally worthless. Then they went and executed on it themselves and made hundreds of billions.
Yep. It's also wrong, but eh.
See, that is an entirely different proposition. And unlike your prior one, this one is at least somewhat correct-adjacent. A plausible hypothesis is very different from a mere idea, and it has value in that it lets you complete execution more quickly.
I honestly don't give a damn what restrictions or conditions or scenarios you dredge up: a collection of symbols in your brain is worthless until it has some reification in the world around you. A dog turd is more valuable than an idea, because at least you can use a dog turd as fertilizer.
Going back to @Roomba's examples: The idea for PKI is worthless. The actual existence of PKI is valuable. You (@Jello_Raptor) are insisting on missing the distinction regardless of how I phrase it, so let me try to break it down into Neji-sized bites:
- In the context of this discussion, things have value insofar as they affect humans in non-trivial ways.
- If it will save lives or improve the quality of lives, it has value.
- If someone will give you money / favors / services for it, it has value.
- If no one will give you money for it, and it won't heal the sick, and it won't right the wrongs, and it won't etc, then it is worthless.
- An idea is (to a first approximation) a set of symbols inside your brain. It is not a physical thing.
- Humans are not telepathic. They cannot directly perceive the contents of your brain.
- The symbols inside your brain cannot directly affect the outside world. It is only when you perform physical actions that you can affect the outside world.
- If the ordered set of symbols "A method of cryptography that uses different keys for encryption and decryption" floats through your brain, it is not valuable because it does not affect humans in non-trivial ways.
- The following scenario does not affect humans in non-trivial ways. As a result, the referenced ordered collection of symbols is worthless:
- [The scene: A smoky bar. Two friends, Jello_Raptor and Bill, lounge in the corner with beer and canapés]
- Jello_Raptor: Hey, Bill, my good friend, my best bud, I just had the spiffiest ordered set of symbols float through my brain!
- Bill: Really? What might that be, old bean?
- Jello_Raptor: Check this out: 'A method of cryptography that uses different keys for encryption and decryption'!
- Bill: By Jove, such a pipping good ordered collection of symbols you have there! You really are just the sparkiest of chaps, eh wot?
- [exeunt, to get more beer and then throw sharp objects at a round target]
- The following scenario also does not affect humans in non-trivial ways, and therefore the referenced ordered collection of symbols is still worthless:
- Jello_Raptor: Hey, Bill. Remember that spiffy ordered collection of symbols I mentioned when we were combining alcohol and small weapons the other night? Well, I created an actual method whereby I can use it.
- Bill: Most impressive, my good chap! What will you do with it?
- Jello_Raptor: Eh, it was enough to create it. Actually executing on it by marketing the idea and turning it into a product that other people could use wouldn't be fun and would be too much work, so I took all the notes and burned them and I'm never going to mention this again.
- Bill: Right you are, old walrus!
- The following scenario DOES affect humans in non-trivial ways, and therefore IS valuable:
- [The scene: The Netscape offices, 1990s-ish]
- Jello_Raptor: Nice to meet you, Mr. Elgamal. I was wondering if you'd pay me for the ordered collection of symbols 'A method of cryptography that uses different keys for encryption and decryption.'
- Taher Elgamal: No. That collection of symbols doesn't solve any problem I have or directly improve my product. At most I might consider putting an engineer on it to find an implementation, but the mere suggestion isn't worth anything.
- Jello_Raptor: Oh, pity. I always thought that ordered collections of symbols were valuable but apparently I was incorrect. I'll have to go find @eaglejarl 40-ish years from now and admit that. In the meantime, would you pay me for a chunk of code that implements my ordered collection of symbols in a way that will let your browser talk to remote computers securely so that your customers can do online banking safely?
- Taher Elgamal: Holy hellfires, yes! Here, have some money! And some more money! And some more!
- Second example, because you have repeatedly insisted that software businesses are different from physical-based businesses:
- [The scene: The salon of a wealthy patron of the arts, Paris, France, circa 1874]
- Jello_Raptor: Good afternoon, Mr Richperson. Would you please give me ten thousand francs for the ordered collection of symbols 'a canvas on which pigmented oils have been applied in such a way that they provide an impression of sunrise over the harbor at Le Havre without actually depicting it in a realistic way'?
- Mr Richperson: No.
- Jello_Raptor: Oh, pity. I always thought that ordered collections of symbols were valuable but apparently I am incorrect even when we aren't discussing software. Well, would you give me money in exchange for this beautiful painting that will kickstart an entire new style of art and for the sake of this contrived example we will assume was done by me and not by Monet? [holds up stunningly beautiful painting]
- Mr Richperson: Holy hellfires, yes! Here, have some money! And some more money! And some more!
Did I Neji that down enough?
On the other hand, I'd suspect that Jello_Raptor would say that the idea was something like "a decentralized currency system based around cryptographically proof-of-work verified individual transactions that are recorded in a public distributed network in which verifiers are paid a transaction fee," which is a very different thing entirely. There's no implementation provided, but it's an idea that, if the right person had it in 2005, would have made them quite wealthy.
On re-reading, that came off harsher than intended. To be clear, it was written predominantly in a spirit of puckishness with a sprinkle of frustration at having repeatedly failed to convey the idea in more concise and less bombastic language. No denigration of Jello_Raptor's formidable brainpower is intended; I'm deliberately overexplaining in order to hopefully put to bed a thing that's been floating around in the thread for a very long time.
Nope, that's not what I would say. I use the word 'idea' as per its actual definition: a thought or suggestion as to a possible course of action. A thought is not a valuable thing because it does not actually alter the world in significant ways. An implementation of the thought is what could have been valuable if the right someone had had it in 2005. The distinctions I would draw are as follows:Now, I suspect that EagleJarl would say that the idea [of Bitcoin] was "currency using computers" and obviously that's a not very useful thing, and I'd agree that it's worthless.
"Okay, who wants to take the stealth option?" Hazō asked, reminding himself to look around the group in general. Things were moving in the right direction but this whole inter-team alliance was still too new and fragile. It wouldn't do to let on that he'd already mentally categorized who should get which plan, as well as planned out with Keiko and Noburi how they would chivvy everyone into the appropriate roles.
"Good point. Which actually brings me to my second idea: we could put some time in on getting people's papers. Right now everyone else is tired and low on chakra, so this would be the best time to go after them. Conning or tricking people into giving us their paper would show good infiltration skills, stealing them would show good stealth, and just mugging people for them would demonstrate combat ability. No matter which approach we took we would also be demonstrating proactivity and planning skills."
I'm thinking we should try to have at least one of our teams use each approach—stealth, infiltration, straight combat—to demonstrate that Leaf has versatility as well as power. That seem sensible to you guys?"
"Our team has a half-and-half option," Yamanaka pointed out. "Shikamaru and I can paralyze the enemy and make them cover their eyes. Then Chōji goes up to them and rifles through their pockets. Unless they have some special senses, there's no way for them to know for sure who did it to them."
Taher Elgamal: No. That collection of symbols doesn't solve any problem I have or directly improve my product. At most I might consider putting an engineer on it to find an implementation, but the mere suggestion isn't worth anything.
Indeed! One could almost say that that was literally in the quote you quoted -- that he wasn't willing to pay for the idea (the thought / collection of symbols), but was willing to pay for the execution (the conversion of that mental concept into a real thing)!Taher Elgamal: No. That collection of symbols doesn't solve any problem I have or directly improve my product. At most I might consider putting an engineer on it to find an implementation, but the mere suggestion isn't worth anything.
How competent a businessman must Taher be to pass up an opportunity worth some money and some more money and some more, minus the cost to pay a developer for a few dozen hours. If only he had the idea that one could set a developer to a task for a few dozen hours and get such an implementation, he could have a thing valued at some money and some more money and some more, minus the cost to pay a developer for a few dozen hours. One could almost say that the idea to apply a developer to such a task is worth precisely some money and some more money and some more, minus the cost to pay a developer for a few dozen hours.
Yeah, he's probably been getting more hate than he deserves. It started off as a joke in one of the updates and has picked up some momentum.On the topic of Neji and hating him (as a player/reader of this quest): we know from canon that he has the "caged bird" seal on his forehead. He is a tool, he has no agency, even to a higher degree than most ninja. He is a sacrificial meat shield and he literally has no choice but to go along with his clans decisions. See also what happened to his father.
I imagine that situation can really mess someone up...
Yes, I would agree with this. This is a clearer statement of @Jello_Raptor's new hypothesis, that a "plausible hypothesis" has value, and I granted this in my prior post.Obviously, you need the implementation for the idea to be worth anything. But in order for the ability to implement the idea to have value, you need to have the idea in the first place (and, obviously, the idea needs to be well-specified enough for you to know what implementing it would actually mean). Ability to do a thing, but no idea of what to do, and an idea of what to do but no ability to actually do it, are both worthless on their own. You need both. In our world, ideas are a dime a dozen, and it's basically impossible to notice the ones well-specified enough that they can even be called 'good' or 'bad'. Hell, it's even more difficult to find ideas well-put-together enough to have an idea of what implementing them would actually look like. But an idea that's well-specified, where you can tell what the intermediate problems will be within a few minutes of thinking, and tell that the implementation would be valuable? An idea nobody else would come up with? Calling that worthless seems strange. In general, sure, ideas are mostly worthless. But exceptions exist, and Hazou coming up with Skywalkers is an example of one.