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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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there's nothing wrong with pointing out when you are right. although the bomb wasn't actually right within the context of the original quote.
i also dislike last-minute changes. but i feel like those have been happening more lately and becoming more socially accepted, so i feel more uncertain about the righteousness of shaming people for it.
 
Rafin said:
Ah. I actually missed the "has more than half of the votes" thing. I just thought that they want us to vote for him in the first lull.

It is still risky, but less so. Also, I don't quite get how this decreases the chances of a Ritsuo victory, other than by getting Chōza's vote on our side in other situations. If Chōza is the clear frontrunner before the undecideds vote, then either Ritsuo or Naruto are going to be the ones dropping out right after. Us not voting for Naruto makes it more likely to be Naruto at that point. The early Naruto voters are pretty much in the bag for Chōza if that happens, regardless of how the Gokētsu vote, while most other Clans don't seem the type to be swayed all that much by Gokētsu choices. And if Ritsuo drops out at this point instead of Naruto, well, then he doesn't win so those scenarios don't matter in the calculation.

Honestly, even the clause triggering is unlikely to happen in a way where our vote for Chōza matters. If the decideds remain the same and we add Kurusu to said decideds because we buy them, then Chōza needs nine votes to be considered having more than half. Even if Naruto loses the Uchiha, Chōza still needs eight. He has three decided votes of his own, so he needs six more (or four if he won over the Uchiha while campaigning). But even if Kurenai drops out, there are only six undecideds up for grabs, not counting the Gokētsu. If he has all of those votes before the first pause in voting then he has already gotten half of the votes. So that's his victory assured, because I can't imagine a possible world where Chōza fails to get a single vote from among the supporters of whoever drops out plus the even still undecided. If Naruto drops out at some point after Chōza made all this happen, he would have our vote without the need for this deal and he should know that. If Ritsuo drops out then the genuine conservatives and Ritsuo himself are unlikely to lockstep vote for Naruto. And even if Naruto and Ritsuo somehow make such a deal that they and all their supporters smoothly switch to the other (lol), Chōza would still only need to convince one additional undecided to just win outright.

At first I thought that maybe this deal was thought up based on Kurenai still running. But that makes the deal even less likely to be in Chōza's favor, since in that case "has more than half of the votes" requires two additional votes in the bag on top of what I said. No, the only way this deal triggers in a way that is useful for him is if the conservative faction is shattered at some point after we commit to the deal but before the election starts. Or if ISC convinces the conservatives (and maybe the Uchiha) to seem undecided. So either the deal in no way lowers the chances of Ritsuo beating Chōza, or this whole thing is a large conspiracy between ISC and the conservatives specifically engineered to steal a single vote (ours) from Naruto. In which cased Ino is the one that lured us into it.

To recap:
If all is on the up and up then we should take the deal. It locks in one additional vote for us (although the Akamichi otherwise breaking the ISC for a preference seems less than likely) and costs us nothing at all. In fact, it would be to our benefit because all it does is make the Gokētsu the ones that get the honor of sealing Chōza's already guaranteed victory. However, that's only if this isn't a trick. And if it is a trick then it is one where ISC collaborated with the conservatives to lower Naruto's chances specifically. While if it isn't a trick then this deal seems not at all in Chōza's favor.

So what's going on? Is the ISC woefully uninformed about the current decided votes? Is Shikamaru tricking Chōza's into this deal to make him more appreciative of the Gokētsu and/or to make him less likely to end up voting for Ritsuo? Or is Shikamaru using Ino (with or without her knowledge) to manipulate Hazō to go against his best interests?

What do y'all think?

Edit: @FaintlySorcerous as the author of the frontrunner plan I am tagging you to take a look at my deliberations in case that changes anything about your plan.
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To my understanding, it's exactly because Chouza would be the clear winner at the deciding moment that it'd be a win-win for us to vote Chouza:
  • The more people vote for Chouza, the more clean his victory, the more firm his authority as Hokage will be. It's better for his administration and Leaf's stability as a whole if it looks like Chouza's victory was near-unanimous instead of barely squeaking out a win.
  • Hazou voting for Chouza, no matter that it was the result of a deal, is a show of trust that will be very beneficial to us under Chouza's administration. Given the uncertain but not hostile relationship between Chouza and Hazou, this would go a long way to making sure Hazou has the support he needs for his various important projects.
Shikamaru is basically saying "Hey, if Chouza's going to win, it's better for everyone if you're voting for him too." We can't wait until after the first round to judge that, so the latest we can judge Chouza's odds of success is in the middle of the vote-casting, when it becomes apparent whether Chouza's gained a tidal wave of support or not. 50% is the threshold Shikamaru judged would be sufficient to determine this: if we're in the middle of voting and Chouza's got as many clans as everyone else put together, that's as good of an indication as you're going to get that he's got the win in the bag.

And the flip side is that, naturally, if Chouza's still on an even playing field with Naruto and Ritsuo, if it looks like Naruto could indeed win, then we throw our vote behind Naruto in the hopes of maximizing his chances. It's only when Naruto's chances are basically nil that you start optimizing second-order consequences like the PR of it all, and that's all Shikamaru is asking us to do.
 
Inferno Vulpix said:
To my understanding, it's exactly because Chouza would be the clear winner at the deciding moment that it'd be a win-win for us to vote Chouza:
  • The more people vote for Chouza, the more clean his victory, the more firm his authority as Hokage will be. It's better for his administration and Leaf's stability as a whole if it looks like Chouza's victory was near-unanimous instead of barely squeaking out a win.
  • Hazou voting for Chouza, no matter that it was the result of a deal, is a show of trust that will be very beneficial to us under Chouza's administration. Given the uncertain but not hostile relationship between Chouza and Hazou, this would go a long way to making sure Hazou has the support he needs for his various important projects.
Shikamaru is basically saying "Hey, if Chouza's going to win, it's better for everyone if you're voting for him too." We can't wait until after the first round to judge that, so the latest we can judge Chouza's odds of success is in the middle of the vote-casting, when it becomes apparent whether Chouza's gained a tidal wave of support or not. 50% is the threshold Shikamaru judged would be sufficient to determine this: if we're in the middle of voting and Chouza's got as many clans as everyone else put together, that's as good of an indication as you're going to get that he's got the win in the bag.

And the flip side is that, naturally, if Chouza's still on an even playing field with Naruto and Ritsuo, if it looks like Naruto could indeed win, then we throw our vote behind Naruto in the hopes of maximizing his chances. It's only when Naruto's chances are basically nil that you start optimizing second-order consequences like the PR of it all, and that's all Shikamaru is asking us to do.
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50% of the initially cast votes.

We've previously seen that a large subset of voters often won't vote right away, and will wait to see how everyone else is leaning first.

So if Choza's initial alliance is as large as Naruto's+Ritsuo's combined, we're obliged to switch our vote, makeing Choza's look very desirable.

But gambling on more initial support is a very weird strategy for the moderate candidate who seems to have low initial support, but will absorb Ritsuo/Naruto voters when they are eliminated.

Very strange. I'd think we're getting played somehow, but Shika claimed it was a mutually beneficial deal, and his non-liar reputation is precious to him. Possibly he's playing us but thinks it's for our own good?

Or they've secured Tsunade's vote and will just win, and Shika is being nice(/covering bases) by having us switch votes without alienating Naruto.
(Actually, he doesn't even need to be sure of Tsunde's support, just think it's possible.)

Also Shika might be looking for an excuse to obligate Choza's to vote Naruto without making it a personal request.
 
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Left-Hand Mutant said:
50% of the initially cast votes.

We've previously seen that a large subset of voters often won't vote right away, and will wait to see how everyone else is leaning first.

So if Choza's initial alliance is as large as Naruto's+Ritsuo's combined, we're obliged to switch our vote, makeing Choza's look very desirable.

But gambling on more initial support is a very weird strategy for the moderate candidate who seems to have low initial support, but will absorb Ritsuo/Naruto voters when they are eliminated.

Very strange. I'd think we're getting played somehow, but Shika claimed it was a mutually beneficial deal, and his non-liar reputation is precious to him. Possibly he's playing us but thinks it's for our own good?

Or they've secured Tsunade's vote and will just win, and Shika is being nice(/covering bases) by having us switch votes without alienating Naruto.
(Actually, he doesn't even need to be sure of Tsunde's support, just think it's possible.)

Also Shika might be looking for an excuse to obligate Choza's to vote Naruto without making it a personal request.
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Yes, to be clear, I am suggesting that Shikamaru is saying "while it cannot be certain until the undecideds have voted, if it turns out that Chouza's position is really strong such that it would be very surprising if he didn't win, it is better to assume he will win and optimize for easing all of our transitions into the new regime."

Like, sure, in theory we could pledge our unwavering loyalty to Naruto so long as even a scrap of hope remains, but if we find ourselves in a situation where, say, you'd need every single undecided to vote against Chouza to stop him from winning? The only thing you gain on expectation out of supporting Naruto in a situation like that is signalling the aforementioned unwavering loyalty, when you could be shoring up the legitimacy and authority of the new Hokage.

If Naruto and Ritsuo fail to gain the strong support of clans, enough so that the clans which strongly support Chouza match both of them combined, then the simplest world-model is that Chouza simply has more public support than either Naruto or Ritsuo and is almost certainly going to win, barring a staggering upset in the undecideds, and there's no sense in basing our strategy on infinitesimal slivers of the possibility-space.
 
What are the odds Tsunade votes? I don't think she'd want to effectively decide the election, so maybe she'll just vote last? Having to break a tie would be a difficult position for her, potentially.

If Orochimaru was going to vote, who would he vote for? Choza? I doubt Naruto, and I can't see him voting for Ritsuo.
Left-Hand Mutant said:
Also Shika might be looking for an excuse to obligate Choza's to vote Naruto without making it a personal request.
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Honestly Shika probably has a plot and the worst outcome of said plot for us is that Choza is elected with our support. I generally trust him (except for the part where maybe he got Akane killed) so I'm okay with it.
 
FaintlySorcerous said:
What are the odds Tsunade votes? I don't think she'd want to effectively decide the election, so maybe she'll just vote last? Having to break a tie would be a difficult position for her, potentially.

If Orochimaru was going to vote, who would he vote for? Choza? I doubt Naruto, and I can't see him voting for Ritsuo.
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Tsunade would probably vote for Choza, honestly. Tsunade doesnt have a high opinion of Ritsuo's antics towards Hazou (nor ours towards him) and probably doesnt like the implications for how that would scale with Ritsuo being Hokage, and Choza's the only remaining adult (Kurenai is grieving and would send Leaf after the Akatsuki, and Ami said that Tsunade would want to avoid conflict with Akatsuki).

That said, I suspect she'll either wait and vote last to avoid unduly influencing the election, or she'll kick open the door, toss the Hat on the table, announce her vote first thing, and then march out of the election and then back into the Hospital, without waiting to see who votes next.

Orochimaru, I suspect, would vote Tsunade just to mess with her. Whether he votes at all, or cares about the implications of casting his votes first is another story.
 
FaintlySorcerous said:
If Orochimaru was going to vote, who would he vote for? Choza? I doubt Naruto, and I can't see him voting for Ritsuo.
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The only people who can currently reach Orochimaru at the great seal are Hazou, Kagome, and Kei Ruri. Pretty sure he doesn't even know an election is happening.

If he went to the conclave, the only non-Naruto-suppourter that can reach him is Neji, and he doesn't have the guts.

Also, he hates politics and doesn't have a vote.


FaintlySorcerous said:
What are the odds Tsunade votes? I don't think she'd want to effectively decide the election, so maybe she'll just vote last?
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This seems quite plausible.
 
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FaintlySorcerous said:
Isn't he a clan of one?
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No. He was willing to become the Yasha clan with us so he would basically legally own all of us but otherwise just fucked off to do his own thing. He detests politics so he probably doesn't want the obligation, however much he could ignore it, to have an actual vote.

But also kages should keep in mind what their resident essies want if they aren't a dumbass so if you want to think of that as a vote... :V
 
Left-Hand Mutant said:
Also, he hates politics and doesn't have a vote.
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He's one of Leaf's two S-rankers, and has a severe amount of political power through being a core Pillar of Leaf's crippled military might. In a noncanon chapter where Hazou pushes for too much for the sale of Dragon Parts, Orochimaru pointed this out, and how he could steal them from Hazou and no one would do anything. Or how he could have Asuma force Hazou to hand them over to him for free.

If Orochimaru wants to vote, he'll get a vote. Whether he wants to, on the other hand... is a bit nebulous. On one hand: he voted last time, and chose to come back to Leaf once Jiraiya made it possible. So Orochimaru is clearly invested in Leaf's continuing existence, and has some, unknown, amount of preferences as to who wears the Hat.

On the other hand: he loathes politicking and socials. Famously so, in fact.

Really, much like Tsunade, I could see it going either way.
 
How bad are you all estimating it is for our goals if Chouza wins?

I think it is something close to:
Naruto wins --> We get 20% closer to our goals
Chouza wins --> We get 12 % closer to our goals
Hagoromo wins -- > We get -40% closer to our goals

Do people strongly disagree with this?
I am basing this on the fact that we could probably consider Asuma and Chouza to be similar, and we have more of an in with Chouza through Ino and Shikamaru.
 
Saint said:
How bad are you all estimating it is for our goals if Chouza wins?

I think it is something close to:
Naruto wins --> We get 20% closer to our goals
Chouza wins --> We get 12 % closer to our goals
Hagoromo wins -- > We get -40% closer to our goals

Do people strongly disagree with this?
I am basing this on the fact that we could probably consider Asuma and Chouza to be similar, and we have more of an in with Chouza through Ino and Shikamaru.
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Choza is a significant step back from Asuma. Not only does it reset the enormous progress we made with Asuma, but he's is he socially in opposition to us.

Naruto is a big step forward, Especially for necromancy.
 
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Saint said:
How bad are you all estimating it is for our goals if Chouza wins?

I think it is something close to:
Naruto wins --> We get 20% closer to our goals
Chouza wins --> We get 12 % closer to our goals
Hagoromo wins -- > We get -40% closer to our goals

Do people strongly disagree with this?
I am basing this on the fact that we could probably consider Asuma and Chouza to be similar, and we have more of an in with Chouza through Ino and Shikamaru.
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I suspect that with Choza in charge, we would need to actively conceal some of our work from the Tower. That's assuming that Tsunade doesn't offer him a complete briefing and that he doesn't have a more extreme reaction to the existence of the Rift than Tsunade does.

Frankly if Choza is elected I expect that we'll eventually commit earnest treason - disobeying direct orders to go open and explore the Rift. The only question is whether we'll be accompanied by Snuncle and/or Naruto.
 
Even putting aside our own goals, as I thjnn it's a bit hard to estimate how good/bad he will be for those, Choza getting elected is also quite bad for our sister. So that should likely be considered as well.
 
Ronike said:
Even putting aside our own goals, as I thjnn it's a bit hard to estimate how good/bad he will be for those, Choza getting elected is also quite bad for our sister. So that should likely be considered as well.
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Why is Chouza bad for Kei? I am assuming that Shikamaru would not be blindsided by Chouza enforcing something that would make Kei mad.
 
FaintlySorcerous said:
Isn't he a clan of one?
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Nope. On paper he's just a random overpowered jonin that happens to also be the chief medical researcher and the head of the legally sanctioned Final Gift program.

Since Tsunade is interim Hokage (as opposed to someone who can be even remotely bullied by Orochimaru) he doesn't actually have a vote in this election until and unless he somehow convinces Tsunade that he really should have one. This may change after the election. But I don't see it changing during the election. As much as he likes to pretend otherwise, Orochimaru probably has the least political capital that an S-Ranker of his caliber and skillset possibly could have.
RandomOTP said:
He's one of Leaf's two S-rankers, and has a severe amount of political power through being a core Pillar of Leaf's crippled military might. In a noncanon chapter where Hazou pushes for too much for the sale of Dragon Parts, Orochimaru pointed this out, and how he could steal them from Hazou and no one would do anything. Or how he could have Asuma force Hazou to hand them over to him for free.

If Orochimaru wants to vote, he'll get a vote. Whether he wants to, on the other hand... is a bit nebulous. On one hand: he voted last time, and chose to come back to Leaf once Jiraiya made it possible. So Orochimaru is clearly invested in Leaf's continuing existence, and has some, unknown, amount of preferences as to who wears the Hat.

On the other hand: he loathes politicking and socials. Famously so, in fact.

Really, much like Tsunade, I could see it going either way.
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Imagine this scenario: All the voting Clan Heads, including interim Hokage Tsunade, are sitting in the Tower in order to vote for the new Hokage. Orochimaru walks in and joins. Tsunade groans, sighs and grudgingly tells Orochimaru that he can stay if he behaves himself. The early voters stand under the banner of their favored candidate and declare their Clans for them as is tradition. The undecideds talk a bit before also joining whatever banner they prefer. Naruto is the frontrunner and Ritsuo and Choza end up tied. Lounging in his seat, Orochimaru lazily proclaims that he's going to break their tie and vote for Choza. No, he doesn't stand up. No, he doesn't formally declare that Clan [doesn't actually exist] stands with Lord Akamichi. What do you think, like, happens now?

Orochimaru could probably pull this if there were no interim Hokage. Maybe he could pull it under the majority of current Clan Heads, were they interim Hokage instead. Hell, maybe he could even have pulled this under Naruto. But this is Tsunade we're talking about.
RandomOTP said:
True, and given that she didn't take our concerns re: Kei's vivisection seriously, my guess is that Tsunade is predisposed towards giving Orochimaru a vote if he wants one.
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That's not my read of the situation. Tsunade underestimates his ruthlessness and disrespect for Leaf. She still thinks of him in the context of the friend and ally she once had. But I don't see her as someone who thinks that he has sound political judgement and should have a greater say in running Leaf, when she herself wants to have less of a say. I'm pretty sure that if Orochimaru went to Tsunade right now and asked her to let him found a voting Clan, she'd tell him to not break her balls and to go ask the next Hokage instead. And if the next Hokage is Ritsuo or Choza then the answer is an instant yes, because Tsunade would not stand in Orochimaru's way. While if the next Hokage is Naruto there might actually be a bit of negotiation before Orochimaru still gets a yes, but in exchange for some minor to moderate concession.
 
Saint said:
Why is Chouza bad for Kei? I am assuming that Shikamaru would not be blindsided by Chouza enforcing something that would make Kei mad.
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Kei told us in her breakdown of which kage candidate she recommends that Choza is very traditionalist and does not support Kei's miscellaneous queer quirks and policies (homosexuality, polyamory, the concubine stuff, etc etc) and on top of that thinks she's a bad influence on Shikamaru & others her age. Tbh he was probably one of the people we heard were shit talking Hazou's throuple too (essentially implying Hazou was cucking Ino with Akane), though perhaps only in polite terms/behind closed doors.
 
Shrooms said:
Kei told us in her breakdown of which kage candidate she recommends that Choza is very traditionalist and does not support Kei's miscellaneous queer quirks and policies (homosexuality, polyamory, the concubine stuff, etc etc) and on top of that thinks she's a bad influence on Shikamaru & others her age. Tbh he was probably one of the people we heard were shit talking Hazou's throuple too (essentially implying Hazou was cucking Ino with Akane), though perhaps only in polite terms/behind closed doors.
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But both Ino and Shikamaru are part of non-traditional romantic relationships. These are two of his closest allies and they have both, presumably, been interacting with him nearly every day since the Collapse.

I just would honestly be shocked if it turned out he would ruin Shikamaru's and Ino's relationships after spending so much time with both of them and being exposed to their happiness and the benefits of non-traditional relationships.
 
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