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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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I'm actually very confused about this:

eaglejarl said:
The most recent reports that you all received said that said that Leaf has lost 12 full or special jōnin, three dozen chūnin, and over a hundred genin.
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eaglejarl said:
Leaf had approximately 1100 genin. We now have 740. We had 400 chūnin. We now have 240. We had 20 special jōnin. We now have 2—Gōketsu Yuno and Kei Anko. We had 20 full jōnin who were not people in this room. We now have 8.
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The Hokage gets each individual mission report, debrief the ninja involved, decides which Jonin are available for missions that need them, etc. If not him, then someone needs to know which ninja are available for missions.

I understand the summaries can be wrong, and that's what eventually tipped off Shikamaru, but it seems a bit unimaginable that Asuma (and others) didn't see a report that said "12 total Jonin and special Jonin deaths" and then when figuring out who to assign a mission to either knew offhand (from the specific mission briefings) that those ninja were dead or kept naming names (more than 12!) only to find that, individually, each was dead.

Something like:

Asuma: This mission needs a special Jonin, who is available?
Clerk: Anko is available.
Asuma: Nah, I don't think she's a good fit for this mission, who else?
Clerk: No one else is available.
Asuma: Really? What about [name]?
Clerk: Dead.
Asuma: [Other names]?
Clerk: All dead.
Asuma: Wait, that's more than 12! What's going on?

This would have especially been the case earlier when it was more like 6 reported dead rather than 12 and Asuma would know who was currently on specific missions.

In a large nation I can understand the numbers being hidden, with easily fungible soldiers I can understand that, but Jonin (and special Jonin) are a very small core of known and named people and massive military assets whose deaths are immediately commented on and known.

There were 40 of them, total, now there's 10, but based on the reports people were thinking there were actually 28 still around. That's an 18 person discrepancy of some of your celebrity figures and major military assets. I don't understand how that would be missed or not identified much earlier as an error in the report.

Also, in terms of negotiations at AMITY, we should expect Rock to know when they've killed Jonin, they'd have a better picture of the war and our military ability than we did (though they wouldn't know how successful the collapse was) ....which then makes me wonder if Shikamaru also checked that the *positive* mission outcomes were also reported correctly. I'll assume he did because he's thorough, but having inflated good news of mission successes is easier to do and harder to suss out.
 
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Come to think of it, negotiating a ton of trade deals for stronger alliances could actually be really important for being able to force Rock into accepting unfavorable concessions. If our new allies find out just how weak we are, they could end up deciding to side with Rock in negotiations, thus forcing unfavorable concessions on us instead (or worse, upending AMITY entirely).

But if a lot of important clans in Cloud, Grass, etc. all have a large monetary interest in us keeping our power and resources (so that we can trade our resources with them, for example), then they'll pressure their kage to not throw in with Rock. That will keep AMITY going even if people find out how weak we are, and ensure we'll still have the support to get favorable concessions from Rock.
 
Inferno Vulpix said:
Thoughts?
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That this should already be a thing. Thats what the Daimyo, Nobels and clans who own land should already be doing in some form.

Oh yeah and the Yakuza.

That's what that guy was doing,

eaglejarl said:
"Absolutely! I'd sell it with a song in my heart, My Lord. All my money comes from the mills and the smithy in the northernmost valley, and I've just now come to Leaf to try to set up contracts for the nut flour. The lake and the mine and the other valley are nothing but an anchor around my neck, My Lord."
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He came to Leaf to make "contracts", pretty sure that would includes ninja missions.

More storage seals would help, but the down side is simply that if there destroyed 100k+ ryo and material are possible gone.

And some stupid Portal opens that spills monsters, maybe that's where all the chakra beasts came from.

Truck storage scroll ninja caused to many Animal Path portals!

Ban seals! Ban seals!
 
The proliferation of storage scrolls include the very real risk of destruction of large number of storage seals either by accident or malice.
 
Kiba said:
The proliferation of storage scrolls include the very real risk of destruction of large number of storage seals either by accident or malice.
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Storage seals are some of the most stable seals out there. Mari literally thought you could safely tear them in half to dump out the contents... in fact, she was telling the civilian merchants she traded with to do just that.

When Kagome found out, he gave her a lecture about "yes, most of the time the contents are just dumped out. Yes, there's a chance the contents Are just dumped into the Out. But there is still a chance, however small, to cause a sealing failure."

Mari, a Jonin, thought that storage seals were safe enough to destroy. I'd say that reduces the hazard levels of proliferating storage seals.

Sure, there's a chance that it could cause an actual sealing failure, but the odds seem pretty low.
 
The issue is when you repeatedly roll the dice on something, even with very small odds the chance something happens grows very quickly.
Ex: one in a million chance something bad happens. roll the dice 1 million times. (1-1/10^6)^(10^6) ~ 37% chance something bad happens

If war stops, peace reigns, and the population grows. The growth of sealmasters is actually an existential threat.
 
I don't know why we are trying to solve logistics with only storage seals when we have access to teleportation but that's just me
 
RandomOTP said:
Storage seals are some of the most stable seals out there. Mari literally thought you could safely tear them in half to dump out the contents... in fact, she was telling the civilian merchants she traded with to do just that.

When Kagome found out, he gave her a lecture about "yes, most of the time the contents are just dumped out. Yes, there's a chance the contents Are just dumped into the Out. But there is still a chance, however small, to cause a sealing failure."

Mari, a Jonin, thought that storage seals were safe enough to destroy. I'd say that reduces the hazard levels of proliferating storage seals.

Sure, there's a chance that it could cause an actual sealing failure, but the odds seem pretty low.
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In a context where storage seals aren't yet widespread, yes.

But the more storage seals there are in the world, the more likely that an incident will happen.

Also Kagome told Mari to never do it again.
 
RandomOTP said:
Storage seals are some of the most stable seals out there. Mari literally thought you could safely tear them in half to dump out the contents... in fact, she was telling the civilian merchants she traded with to do just that.

When Kagome found out, he gave her a lecture about "yes, most of the time the contents are just dumped out. Yes, there's a chance the contents Are just dumped into the Out. But there is still a chance, however small, to cause a sealing failure."

Mari, a Jonin, thought that storage seals were safe enough to destroy. I'd say that reduces the hazard levels of proliferating storage seals.

Sure, there's a chance that it could cause an actual sealing failure, but the odds seem pretty low.
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Not to mention, if there is a concern that truck scrolls could have too many seals we can just make many smaller ones that each only have about as many seals as Hazō carries.

roobee said:
The issue is when you repeatedly roll the dice on something, even with very small odds the chance something happens grows very quickly.
Ex: one in a million chance something bad happens. roll the dice 1 million times. (1-1/10^6)^(10^6) ~ 37% chance something bad happens

If war stops, peace reigns, and the population grows. The growth of sealmasters is actually an existential threat.
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If that's the case then we should just stop uplift entirely and instead work to keep humanity at a very small population with exceedingly few sealmasters. It goes against basically everything the Gōketsu stand for.

Oneiros said:
I don't know why we are trying to solve logistics with only storage seals when we have access to teleportation but that's just me
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We absolutely should also be using summoning for logistics. Truck scrolls work perfectly to complement summoning logistics.

However, using summoners for logistics between villages requires us to allow other villages to have summoners. Some of them already have one, but for the rest (ex: Sand), we would need to give them one. And that doesn't seem like the kind of thing you or many other of the thread participants are interested in. If I'm wrong though, I would happily support giving Sand or other villages a scroll each.

Edit:
We should definitely expand the summon trade network during the chunin exams to other villages that have summoners. It would let us trade instantly with those villages as well as their summon clans, thus increasing our wealth/power even more. It would also give us instant communication with these villages, which would greatly help AMITY work out in the long run.
 
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Oneiros said:
I don't know why we are trying to solve logistics with only storage seals when we have access to teleportation but that's just me
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We just move the stuff, but stuff has to come to us. Running around the country as a summoner isn't really a good idea.

But we can just make storage scrolls dirt cheap, the merchants can organize the rest on their own.

Free market and so on.

Sentient Tree said:
Come to think of it, negotiating a ton of trade deals for stronger alliances could actually be really important for being able to force Rock into accepting unfavorable concessions. If our new allies find out just how weak we are, they could end up deciding to side with Rock in negotiations, thus forcing unfavorable concessions on us instead (or worse, upending AMITY entirely).

But if a lot of important clans in Cloud, Grass, etc. all have a large monetary interest in us keeping our power and resources (so that we can trade our resources with them, for example), then they'll pressure their kage to not throw in with Rock. That will keep AMITY going even if people find out how weak we are, and ensure we'll still have the support to get favorable concessions from Rock.
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If they find out how weak Leaf is they might just continue the war and take the land? And kick us out of AMITY (lol).

An Rock-Waterfall-Grass-Cloud Alliance is at minimum, 4 (2xRock, 1xWaterfall, 1xCloud) Tailed-Beasts and Grandmaster F.
And it's weird if Grass and Waterfall don't have at least 1 S-rank each. (That would be 7 S-rankers)
+ Many ninja.

I am not against trade deals, but those existed long before AMITY.

What's more effective is actually giving other countries what they would need that they can't get easy on their own, thats what trade is all about after all.
  • Most countries don't have Skywalker seals.
  • Many countries don't have summoning scrolls.
  • Some countries might not have many sealmasters to begin with.
  • Sharing the new schooling system?
  • How much water/food do countries like Sand acutally need?
Right now we have a good thing going with Isan, so giving them lots of stuff now is probably a good idea. They could work in our country while we bring them up to date with the "modern" world. We gain some manpower and they get stuff.

This whole world (not just 1 or 2 countries) can't just be run by totally incompetent people who don't understand trade and their own economy.
 
Now I'm left to wonder if Team Downfall discovered a portal that leads to gaki, or if they have made an alliance with another continent they just discovered, or if they're, like, exterminating chakra pests for chūnin pay
 
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ProperAttorney said:
Hey @eaglejarl, did the scroll hunt in north Wind country end up happening? If so, does Hazo know the results of the mission?
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It did, yes. They found nothing and returned empty-handed with sore muscles, grouchy dispositions, and several minor wounds from, quote scorpions the size of fucking sheep unquote.


Shrooms said:
To follow up FS's inquiry and compile what we know, can we actually just get an update on what ninja are left on the estate?

From after the collapse, so about a year and a couple months ago:

eaglejarl said:
39 ninja:

  • 2 Academy students, ages seven and nine
  • 31 genin, ages twelve to sixteen
  • 1 medically-retired chūnin with palsy and the beginnings of dementia
  • 3 semi-crippled chūnin (missing leg; missing arm; horrific burns down her entire right side)
  • 2 young, healthy chūnin who were probably skinwastes These two moved back into the city after finding that some family they had thought were dead were in fact still alive.
  • 2 mature and competent chūnin: Atomu and Reo. They are both in their early thirties, charismatic and organized enough that you can delegate some leadership tasks to them. Reo is missing his right leg above the knee and is therefore not fully combat capable, although as a ninjutsu-spec he has more ability than he would if he were taijutsu-spec.
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Atomu, Reo, and Mai have been adopted. We have also been told some genin left to join KEI at their estate and we were supportive. Then there was the runaway missingnin who thought Hazou was going to torture him, and he had a sister. I think the sister is still here.
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  • The two Academy students are still Academy students.
  • The medically-retired ninja is still there.
  • Atomu, Reo, and Mai were adopted, as you said
  • The other two semi-crippled chūnin are dead. They were sent on what was expected to be a low-risk patrol mission along the eastern border with two other able-bodied chūnin but they got unlucky and died: that was when Cloud made their move.
  • Of the 31 genin:
    • 5 joined the KEI. You can check to see if they are still alive.
    • 1 ran off because he thought he was going to be tortured by a fish sex cult leader
    • 10 died on various missions
    • 8 were promoted to chūnin and then died on various missions
    • 4 were promoted to chūnin and are still alive and living on the estate
    • 3 are still genin and living on the estate
 
Velorien said:
  • The two Academy students are still Academy students.
  • The medically-retired ninja is still there.
  • Atomu, Reo, and Mai were adopted, as you said
  • The other two semi-crippled chūnin are dead. They were sent on what was expected to be a low-risk patrol mission along the eastern border with two other able-bodied chūnin but they got unlucky and died: that was when Cloud made their move.
  • Of the 31 genin:
    • 5 joined the KEI. You can check to see if they are still alive.
    • 1 ran off because he thought he was going to be tortured by a fish sex cult leader
    • 10 died on various missions
    • 8 were promoted to chūnin and then died on various missions
    • 4 were promoted to chūnin and are still alive and living on the estate
    • 3 are still genin and living on the estate
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So we only need 8 adoption slots in the near future.

That's a lot easier than before. Thanks Lord Jashin!
 
roobee said:
The issue is when you repeatedly roll the dice on something, even with very small odds the chance something happens grows very quickly.
Ex: one in a million chance something bad happens. roll the dice 1 million times. (1-1/10^6)^(10^6) ~ 37% chance something bad happens

If war stops, peace reigns, and the population grows. The growth of sealmasters is actually an existential threat.
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Slightly incorrect: 37% chance the bad thing doesn't happen. You're right to use that formula, but you still need to subtract from 1 at the end.

Let p = 1/106​ for simplicity, so 1-p describes the odds that the bad thing doesn't happen in one roll.

Just like rolling a 1 on a die is 1/6 and rolling snakeeyes is 1/36, for any probability you can get the odds of it happening twice by multiplying it with itself. In our case, we don't want the bad thing to happen even once, so 'the bad thing doesn't happen' is the probability we want to happen twice. We can describe this as (1-p)2​. Generalize a bit and the odds the bad thing won't happen in n rolls is (1-p)n​.

But this is the odds the bad thing won't happen in n rolls, so it's not quite right yet. Subtract it from 1 and you'll have the odds the bad thing happens at least once within n rolls. Final formula: 1-(1-p)n​
(Source: this specific application of probability is immensely relevant to shiny hunting in Pokemon)

An interesting heuristic I've learned from this phenomenon is that when you try a 1/p chance p times, so like your example of 'one in a million chance and a million tries', the odds of hitting the one-in-a-million at least once converges on about 2/3 odds. The bigger p is, the more you approach that point.

Though it's not actually 2/3, it's 1-1/e because e likes to stick its grubby little fingers in everything made of math, but 1-1/e is pretty close to 2/3 so it works as a rule of thumb. Roll a d20 20 times? Odds of getting at least one nat 20 is about 2/3. Same with the odds of getting at least one nat 1. Very easy connection to bake into your head for whenever you're estimating probability. It also works out that you hit 50% odds of a hit after about 2/3 of p, so if you roll a d20 13 times you have about even odds of getting at least one nat 20 within that set, and so on.
 
Plan segment: Please steal me
  • Mari/Gaku: prepare groundwork to make trade deals with foreign clans during chunin exams
    • What does Leaf/Gōketsu have to trade?
      • Spider silk, conventional fabrics, food, lumber, goods from summon allies, art/cultural pieces, craft goods
    • What do other villages have to trade?
      • Foreign textiles, luxury foods, utility jutsu, art/cultural pieces, raw materials, perfumes, spices
    • Which clans are most likely to trade with us?
      • What do they want?
      • Leverage to help negotiate?
    • Should we work with ISC or others to present a united front during negotiations?
    • Goal: establish Leaf/Gōketsu as a major trade partner of as many villages as possible, establish Leaf economic/diplomatic dominance, ensure AMITY's success
    • Also: prepare to bring foreign summoners into summon trade network
      • CHECK WITH ASUMA!
  • During Kagome's training, begin work on a truck scroll
    • Large ledger with many storage seals and replaceable pages to write descriptions/instructions for contents
    • When finished, have Gaku organize use for trade between villages (start: Leaf to Mist?)

Okay, so this plan segment will let Mari and Gaku prepare for us to absolutely dominate discussions for trade deals during the chunin exams. Which is exactly the kind of language we should be using if Asuma asks, since last time Hazō suggested trade as a path to world peace he shot it down out of hand. Out of character the goal is to give the QMs ideas for what we'll be trading once the talks actually start, and to set up a whole bunch of tags ahead of time that we or Mari can use during negotiations. This plan segment also establishes the capacity to more easily move the amount of stuff we need to move via truck scrolls/summoners.
 
Don't take this to serious, but people are kind of focusing on a non-problem.

Sentient Tree said:
Jiraiya originally shot it down due to there not being enough trade in the first place to make it valuable, but I have my doubts that he knew what he was talking about. It would probably be a good idea to revive the idea again especially with international trade set to become so incredibly important.
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eaglejarl said:
"Finally, there just isn't that much need for long-distance trade. Nearly everything that Leaf needs is produced here in Fire. The trade that we have with other nations is mostly either luxuries or an excuse for espionage."
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[x] Training Plan: Noburi
Medical Knowledge 19 -> 20


Noburi can't be "the next Tsunade" without higher skills... Let's go!
 
ContextBot quoted Eaglejarl: said:
"Finally, there just isn't that much need for long-distance trade. Nearly everything that Leaf needs is produced here in Fire. The trade that we have with other nations is mostly either luxuries or an excuse for espionage."
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Huh, Jiraiya was only talking about Leaf anyway, and wasn't saying that we couldn't *use* more trade, just that we didn't need it. I guess I was worried about production being insufficient for no reason. This is definitely a good thing for our trade deal plans.

ContextBot said:
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Darn right, they are. Thinking there's such a thing as not needing more trade. :p
 
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