@Radvic IIRC we got 100,000 ryo from Jiraiya when we sold him Skytowers, and the reason we got that amount (from WOG) was because that was the amount of money it would cost Jiraiya to spend ~1 day on researching Skytowers. So...Jiraiya's time is worth something over a C-rank mission, per day?
 
@Radvic IIRC we got 100,000 ryo from Jiraiya when we sold him Skytowers, and the reason we got that amount (from WOG) was because that was the amount of money it would cost Jiraiya to spend ~1 day on researching Skytowers. So...Jiraiya's time is worth something over a C-rank mission, per day?
Sealing? Definitely.
 
He does it all!! Economics, physics, what'll the madman pick up next? Molecular chemistry? Quantum physics???

Great analysis.
Depends on what gets us XP :p

@Radvic IIRC we got 100,000 ryo from Jiraiya when we sold him Skytowers, and the reason we got that amount (from WOG) was because that was the amount of money it would cost Jiraiya to spend ~1 day on researching Skytowers. So...Jiraiya's time is worth something over a C-rank mission, per day?
That seems about right? Given that he's pretty much always doing relevant things to Leaf's ninja, and is strong enough it doesn't really do significant risk to his life?

Also, it's worth noting that with the assumptions I made, there are many more ninja than there are missions: it comes out to something like each ninja team of four takes 4 or 5 missions a year. This would mean that a good way for us to make money is to just use Jiraiya's influence as Hokage to approve our team for more missions than other people can take, since missions are relatively scarce.
 
Now, we also know that there are other cities in Leaf

I think you mean Fire. Which is pretty good, because we know that other countries also hire ninja from other countries, so your assumption:

Also, it's worth noting that with the assumptions I made, there are many more ninja than there are missions: it comes out to something like each ninja team of four takes 4 or 5 missions a year

do make sense with this in mind.
 
let's assign our base money unit X to be "a generic skilled laborer's daily take-home pay."

So, let's estimate there to be ~25,000 skilled laborers. This puts us at 25000 X per day for "goods produced in Konoha."

If X is an average skilled laborer's daily take-home pay, then the amount they produce necessarily exceeds their pay; compare countries by average wage to countries by PPP. When we assume a subsistence standard of living and all other resources going to the war machine, these things become grossly different. How much larger depends on other factors (amount of arable land, how close to subsistence civilians are, etc) which could easily change the results by an order of magnitude. (That is, it's entirely plausible--likely, even--that average laborers produce 11X in value, of which 10X goes the way of ninja, because if you start letting civilians have nice things, that's money that could be spent on not-ninja and you get invaded by the guy who does.)

There's another factor of >2 in government spending: missions may create value in addition to skilled laborers. Like, if we say "magic is magical" and genin working D-ranks are 20 times more productive than non-wizards (which, given our experience building infrastructure in that one village, may be a conservative estimate), that alone about doubles the amount that can be sacrificed to Moloch.

God damn I wish I either had more background in macro or less in something macro-adjacent.
 
I think you mean Fire.

Yep. Idk what "Leaf" refers to. Sometimes I use Leaf to refer to the country of Fire. Sometimes I use it to refer to the ninja in Fire. Sometimes I use it to refer to Konoha. Idk what it's actually supposed to mean. I changed that instance to Fire.

Which is pretty good, because we know that other countries also hire ninja from other countries, so your assumption:

do make sense with this in mind.
I don't think ninja are hired by people outside of the country they are from that much. That seems likely to trigger ninja wars and stuff. Also, while occassional missions may come in, the places providing those missions are going to be poor (since they either don't have or don't trust their ninja protectors), and at least B rank, since it will require leaving the Country of Fire to perform the mission. This makes me think that while missions *may* come from outside the country, it is highly irregular and thus not something to account for in order of magnitude calculations like this one.

@Radvic Nice analysis. I think your ratio of 1 to 5 of farmers to skilled tradesmen is too high, though. It probably takes a lot of farmers to feed that many people using medieval techniques. At around a 1.25 to 1 ratio, C class missions are worth ~12,000 ryo instead. At 7 farmers to 1 tradesman, C ranks come to 2300 ryo. This comes from dividing by the squared difference in the ratios, which may be wrong, but I was trying to take into account both the smaller pool of payment and the smaller pool of mission givers. Respectively, the B ranks would be worth either ~105,000 or 20,500. A ranks are 880,000 or 170,000. I'd probably further divide this by 2 and instead increase the amount of missions that occur, via taxes taken by the village and spent to fund missions of its own design.
So, the big difference here is that I only calculated cities, not villages and farming communities for skilled labor. We know that there are ~300,000 people in the land of Fire, so the numbers I gave, nation-wide scales to something like 3 to 1 Farmers to Tradesmen ratio, which seems within the realm of plausibility. I'm unsure if you could actually put 15,000 farmers in each of the three other Leaf cities, or 25,000 farmers in Konoha. That seems like far too many farmers for a city. Re: mathematical propogation, with the 7 to 1 ratio, I get 11,250 paying skilled workers, 1,125 X per day, which means 410,625 X per year, which means C = 81.4 X, which means a C rank would pay for ~12,000 ryo. So, your math checks out, but I think your assumptions on why the input should be changed are wrong.

If X is an average skilled laborer's daily take-home pay, then the amount they produce necessarily exceeds their pay; compare countries by average wage to countries by PPP. When we assume a subsistence standard of living and all other resources going to the war machine, these things become grossly different. How much larger depends on other factors (amount of arable land, how close to subsistence civilians are, etc) which could easily change the results by an order of magnitude. (That is, it's entirely plausible--likely, even--that average laborers produce 11X in value, of which 10X goes the way of ninja, because if you start letting civilians have nice things, that's money that could be spent on not-ninja and you get invaded by the guy who does.)
Yep. The economics I did are definitely incorrect, they aren't supposed to be precise, because precision would take an actual economist and real training. That said, I'll note that the difference in the United States between those values is something like 5%, which isn't a huge difference (despite large military spending). Likewise, Mexico is around a 10% difference (despite standards of living). Countries with big percentage differences seem to be primarily small (and thus prone to statistical anomalies) like Luxemburg, Qatar, and Singapore, or get a lot of business from other countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Malta. That said, I considered doing this same analysis using a shop or store's gross yearly revenue instead of daily take home pay. Feel free to do an independent evaluation using that mechanism to see if they wind up at the same order of magnitude of mission pays.

kk. New proposed topic:

What would arming the civilians look like (best ways/ideas)? What would the likely ninja reaction be?
Depends highly on implementation, most likely you'd eventually wind up with rebelling civilians. Depending on how well you regulated usage and distribution, you'd likely be able to delay the eventual civil war by anywhere from a couple days to a few decades. Likely, the way to get it to start happening in Leaf is to either 1) sell it as defenses for remote villages, 2) sell it as freeing up ninja power for an offensive, or 3) sell it as a defensive mechanism against whenever enemies develop skywalkers.
 
BTW, have we passed a plan yet that replenished our seal stockpile? Because I remember @Velorien saying that we needed to specifically say we were doing that and how many seals we were taking/infusing if we want to have seals in the future.
 
@Velorien @OliWhail @eaglejarl I present to you, in hopes of 10 XP and being a bit helpful:

Radvic's Analysis of Plausible Economics in Leaf
Disclaimer: Not an economist by any fashion. Doing some voodoo magic here.​

Abstract: We want to assign cost of living and pay rates for missions. So, let's throw some ballpark numbers around. First, we'll define a variable X from which to base our economic assumptions off of. Second, we will determine how much of this variable is likely available to fund ninja missions. Third, we will determine the relative costs of ninja missions based off their risk factors. Finally, we will solve for X using information given in the quest to determine the costs of missions.

Extra Disclaimer: now, we know that to say Medieval economies operated via "money" is to entirely misunderstand their system (see Manorialism). That said, we're going to do it anyways and just say "Marked for Death is different than medieval economies because magic." With pesky reality out of the way, we can proceed to generating numbers and variables making entirely anachronistic capitalist assumptions. I'll note that the presence of a "merchant council" indicates that these assumptions may have some merit into how MfD works.

Defining X

So, farmers are unlikely to ever see any money in Marked for Death. Why? Because likely, they live in land owned or "protected" by ninja or councils or mayors, or Daimyos, or whatever, and they just keep enough food to survive, and wear rags and stuff they make themselves in their free time. This is pretty similar to our experience in the village in Iron.

Ok, but there are more than just peasant civilians in Marked for Death - they've got a whole medieval structure and a few cities. So, let's look at what's probably the lowest non-peasant class, and most common group in cities, and primary provider of value. Skilled laborers. We'll assume there's some labor classes, e.g. Blacksmiths, florists, sandal-makers, butchers, bakers, etc. There's likely a range of pay depending on the work and skill, but I wouldn't expect it to span more than one order of magnitude. So, let's assign our base money unit X to be "a generic skilled laborer's daily take-home pay." This means that X should be enough to 1) pay for daily food for at least 2 people (children assumption), 2) pay for clothing, 3) pay for a portion of a dwelling (we'll say 50% - assuming that each hovel has 2 skilled laborers paying for it). We'll calculate this value at the end, after relating it to ninja mission pay.


Calculating available Mission Funding

Now, let's estimate how many skilled laborers there are in Fire. We know that Konoha has ~30,000 residents. We also know there are ~1,500 ninja. Presumably, there are also some farmers, and bureaucrats and miscellaneous officials who don't provide goods/services. So, let's estimate there to be ~25,000 skilled laborers. This puts us at 25000 X per day for "goods produced in Konoha." Let's assume that there is effectively a 10% overhead which will eventually go to pay for ninja missions. This puts "funding provided for ninja missions by Konoha alone" at ~2500 X per day.

Now, we also know that there are other cities in Leaf. Specifically, there are three, each around 20,000 residents. If we assume 18,000 of each of those are "skilled laborers", this adds an additional 52,000 X per day into the economy, and 5,200 X per day into the ninja fund (Assuming 10% ninja rates).

More generally, we can calculate the ninja fund available by using the formula:

Number_Skilled_Laborers x Percentage_Spent_on_Ninja

Which, in this case is:

77,000 x 0.10 = 7,700

So, this means that the total funding to hire ninja missions in Leaf winds up being ~7700 X per day. This is spread out across ~1,500 ninja. This means that the "average" ninja will make ~5 times what a skilled laborer makes, though this is misleading since the majority of ninja are genin. It seems we are in the right ballpark though, so let's continue.

Numbers of Missions Hired

Now, with a way to relate skilled labor (i.e. cost of living) to ninja funds, let's look at missions.

D-rank. This seems to be just unskilled labor available to people who want it. It's unclear to me why a civilian would hire a ninja to do work they can get the local street urchin to do for a fraction of the price, but I guess if you want to show off your wealth, this is probably a good way to do it. Cost is 20 ryo/hour/ninja. I'd imagine that this is paid for by individual shops and citizens, and so will not assume the funding comes from the 7,700 X per day ninja fund.

C-rank. These missions are necessary for intra-country trade, which is likely a thing many skilled labor shops will want. For instance, if they need to go to a guild meeting at a neighboring town, or want to deliver wares, they'll need a C-rank. If skilled laborers want to harvest materials, they may need a C-rank mission to get an escort. I'd imagine most merchant shops need about one every year. We'll further assume each merchant shop is 5 laborers, and that they can often share resources with 10 of their neighbors. This means we'll need a number of C-ranks a year = #laborers/50 = 77,000 / 50 ~ 1540 C ranks / year.

B-rank. These missions are necessary for inter-country trade, which a minority of skilled labor shops will likely want. Other instances of a B-rank mission would be to deal with problems of ninja or chakra beast origin (e.g. a supply point is inhabited by chakra beasts, ninja are suspected to have done something nefarious to a merchant). Most likely, a guild or collection of shops would want to be able to have cash saved to hire a B-rank mission if needed. I'd expect that guilds pay for this via a membership fee. Like insurance. So, let's assume each collection of 100 merchant shops will have the funding to purchase 1 B-rank a year. This means we'll need a number of B-ranks a year of #laborers/100/5 = 77,000 / 500 ~ 154 B ranks / year.

A-rank. These missions are necessary for starting new ventures in new areas with chakra beasts, long term exploratory caravanning, or harming foreign merchants/guilds. I'd expect most established guilds have the funding to purchase one or two A-ranks a year, as they aren't normally needed, but are probably needed whenever expanding. We'll say an established guild is a collection of ~500 merchant shops, and they need one mission every two years. This means we'll have a number of A-ranks equal to #laborers / 500 / 5 = 77,000 / 2,500 ~ 30.8 A ranks / year.

So. According to these assumptions, this means that D-ranks are likely self-funded by affluent skilled laborers, and assumes that C, B, and A rank missions are funded via a 10% membership fee of skilled laborers by their guild. This means that we have a cash inflow of 7700 X per day to pay for 1580 C ranks, 158 B ranks, and 31.6 A ranks each year. So, multiplying 7700 X by 365 to get the yearly funds, we find that the civilians can afford:

~2,800,000 X monies for 1540 C ranks, 154 B ranks, and 30.8 A ranks. So, we now have a formula relating cost of living (X) to mission costs for C, B, and A rank missions.

2800000X = 1540C + 154B + 30.8A

Ninja Mission Relative Cost (risk) Assessment

Our next task is to assign relative costs between C, B, and A rank missions.


Now, given that there are ~1,500 ninja, spending the time to actually achieve all of these missions is likely relatively simple. This means that we'll want to measure the cost in ninja lives, not in ninja time. So, let's estimate risk. The risk for a C rank mission seems like it should be around 1% risk of loss of life - it's either fighting civilians or normal chakra beasts, but normally just escorting and not really doing anything Risk pretty much only comes from misfiled or misidentified C ranks. No ninja combat is to be expected. As the risk of a B rank mission is equivalent to a C-rank that lasts 2 weeks instead of 2 days, let's say instead of a 99% chance of survive, ninja have a (99%)^7 chance of survival. So, a 93.2% chance of survival. This means the risk for a B rank mission is ~7% risk of loss of life. Finally, A rank missions are likely individually specked out, but, if we assume ninja combat is likely, we'll assume a 50% chance of loss of life. So, if we look at things from the mess of survival expectancy above, we can expect a 50% chance of ninja death with either 70 C rank missions, 8 B rank missions, or 1 A rank mission. Obviously, the ninja you send on the mission will matter greatly for survival ratings, but we're just doing ballpark estimates, so these numbers should be roughly right.

So, this indicates at the cost to ninja is approximately 70C = 8 B = 1 A

Plugging this into our equation above for cost of living to ninja missions, we find:

2800000X = 1540C + 154 (8.75 C) + 30.8 (70 C)
2800000X = 5043.5 C
C ~ 555 X
B ~ 4857 X
A ~ 38862 X

So, we would expect one C rank mission to be approximately 600 day's skilled labor daily pay, One B rank mission to be approximately 4,900 day's skilled labor daily pay, and one A rank mission to be approximately 38,900 day's skilled labor daily pay.

Converting to Ryo

Now, we just need to figure out what an average skilled laborer is paid, and we can answer the question proposed. So, let's look at costs of items. We know that ingredients for one loaf of bread costs 30 ryo, and a gallon of honey costs 1,000 ryo, and a copper kettle costs 150 ryo in Iron. Assuming the value of the ryo is relatively similar in Leaf, it seems reasonable to assume a skilled laborer could purchase approximately 5 loaves of bread a day. Obviously, that's not what they're going to spend their money on, but it should be enough to buy a day's food for 2 people (~3 loaves of bread), and have a reasonable chunk of cash left over to pay for things like rent, clothing, and guild fees. This means one day's skilled labor is 150 ryo.

So, X = 150 ryo

C ~ 555 (150 ryo)
C ~ 80,000 ryo
B ~ 4857 (150 ryo)
B ~ 700,000 ryo
A ~ 38862 (150 ryo)
A ~ 5,800,000 ryo

Conclusion

So with the above order of magnitude assumptions, the cost of living at a humble civilian skilled laborer level (i.e. hovel & low quality food) is ~ 150 ryo per day in Leaf, C rank missions should pay ~ 80,000 ryo, B rank missions should pay ~ 700,000 ryo, and A rank missions should pay ~ 6,000,000 ryo. Feel free to use the above formulas with different input values for things like number of skilled laborers, ninja overhead percentage, mission risk assessments, or daily skilled laborer pay to refine values.
This is amazing. Definitely worth 10 XP, though I'll hold off just for now in case @eaglejarl or one of the other players turns up and invalidates your analysis by finding some critical flaw that means we can't use it.

That was my plan. Glad I'm not entirely crazy
I'm not sure I'd want to point to "I think like other members of the MfD hivemind" as evidence of my sanity.
 
I'm not sure I'd want to point to "I think like other members of the MfD hivemind" as evidence of my sanity.
It's called a hivemind for a reason. Relative to the other players, she's perfectly sane, so it's fine!!
BTW, have we passed a plan yet that replenished our seal stockpile? Because I remember @Velorien saying that we needed to specifically say we were doing that and how many seals we were taking/infusing if we want to have seals in the future.
Not yet, no. Thoughts on what our loadouts should be?

Basics, per person -- should probably have at least 6 or so extra sets of these. Just in case.:
  • 6 sets of Air Domes
  • 4 Tunneler's Friends
  • 4 Ishihara's Glorious Life-saving Purifiers
  • Banshee Slayer Earmuffs
  • 2 Banshee Seals
  • Macerators, number dependent on the individual (Akane and Hazou have loads, everyone else has less but an appreciable number like 10 or so)
  • Implosion seals (innumerable)
  • Explosion seals (These are just for non-Team Uplift members we party up with)
Optionals:
  • Hollowed LBF Quarterstaff with shaped charges or Macerators. Think Avatar: The Last Airbender-style mechanismics.
  • Hollowed LBF quarterstaff with Air Dome seals, because defense yes.
 
This is amazing. Definitely worth 10 XP, though I'll hold off just for now in case @eaglejarl or one of the other players turns up and invalidates your analysis by finding some critical flaw that means we can't use it.
Right now, the biggest flaw I'm aware of is the one @1234qwerty brought up regarding missions Minami has done. Specifically, that she had done
A dozen or so A-ranks, twenty-seven B-ranks, and more C-ranks than I can remember.
which suggests that
1) there are significantly more A rank missions than I postulated (given that Minami had taken a dozen or so in a five year career as a chunnin).
2) A ranks are significantly less dangerous than I had thought (given Minami had survived a dozen or so)
Though, this also seems to run into the problem that Minami only spent about 30-40 nights on missions before meeting us, especially given that B rank missions are "up to 2 weeks each" and she's done 27 of them. Also, given that she had fought (and presumably won battles with)
Maybe...fifteen enemy ninja
this indicates that A rank missions are likely not as dangerous as I used in my analysis. Ultimately, this can be explained by survivorship bias, statistical anomaly, or by adjusting the risk assessment of missions I provided. Also, note that the number of missions I postulated existed (~2000 per year for Fire Nation), suggests ninja are rarely busy completing missions for their populace (at least, for their skilled labor populace).

Good to know I didn't mess up my math. I agree that the idea of 25,000 farmers in Konoha doesn't fit my mental model. However, it's been stated that civilian travel without ninja escort is extremely dangerous, so I don't see farmers regularly delivering crops from places any significant distance away. To square these things away, ninja would need to regularly go on trips to places where crops are grown and use storage scrolls to deliver them back to Konoha, which isn't something we've really heard of happening. Also, I've been using acreage necessary to feed 30,000 people to estimate Konoha's area. It is meant to be a 'Hidden Village', but I'm not sure that means sacrificing having enough local, defensible agriculture to guarantee not losing it to enemy attacks.
Yeah, I don't know what proportion of the citizens in Konoha are farmers. That said, I feel like a C rank mission could very well be "Go to village X and collect Y amount of food/ingredients in these storage scrolls." This seems like the sort of thing a restaurant would likely hire ninja for. Storage seals also mean that they could just send them out once per crop, and then hire D rank genin to unseal and reseal the contents as they need them.
 
@Radvic very cool! I think one major flaw with your analysis though is that you've conflated "cost to civilians" with "pay to ninja" here:

Conclusion

So with the above order of magnitude assumptions, the cost of living at a humble civilian skilled laborer level (i.e. hovel & low quality food) is ~ 150 ryo per day in Leaf, C rank missions should pay ~ 80,000 ryo, B rank missions should pay ~ 700,000 ryo, and A rank missions should pay ~ 6,000,000 ryo. Feel free to use the above formulas with different input values for things like number of skilled laborers, ninja overhead percentage, mission risk assessments, or daily skilled laborer pay to refine values.

Everything we've seen of the ninja villages indicates that though they may have the income structure of TaskRabbit, they have the culture, goals, and most importantly the spending structure of the U.S. Navy.

I'd guess that the VAST majority of the high-paying A and B rank missions are military and not civilian, and so there should therefore be many more per year than the 30 A ranks/150 B ranks that you've identified the civilians as directly requesting. This means that the Village should pay out much less per mission than the figures you've indicated.

E: Oh cool, it looks like one of the issues you thought your model had was that it underestimated the total number of missions, so maybe the model for civilians' paying into the system IS fine and once you add the extra military missions that Leaf is paying out it'll all work?
 
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Yeah, I don't know what proportion of the citizens in Konoha are farmers. That said, I feel like a C rank mission could very well be "Go to village X and collect Y amount of food/ingredients in these storage scrolls." This seems like the sort of thing a restaurant would likely hire ninja for. Storage seals also mean that they could just send them out once per crop, and then hire D rank genin to unseal and reseal the contents as they need them.
Based on the Mist interlude (I forget what, but the one with the meat trader), it would seem that doesn't really happen.
 
Good to know I didn't mess up my math. I agree that the idea of 25,000 farmers in Konoha doesn't fit my mental model. However, it's been stated that civilian travel without ninja escort is extremely dangerous, so I don't see farmers regularly delivering crops from places any significant distance away. To square these things away, ninja would need to regularly go on trips to places where crops are grown and use storage scrolls to deliver them back to Konoha, which isn't something we've really heard of happening. Also, I've been using acreage necessary to feed 30,000 people to estimate Konoha's area. It is meant to be a 'Hidden Village', but I'm not sure that means sacrificing having enough local, defensible agriculture to guarantee not losing it to enemy attacks.

Leaf has it's own farmland:

An interesting logistical note: Konoha's wall encloses enough farmland to make the place self-sufficient, as well as cordoned-off wild areas for ninja training. (The Forest of Death is one such area just on the other side of the wall, where they frequently dump large amounts of food scraps in order to attract chakra beasts.) There may be opportunities to buy up and build on such land, especially if it's not arable.
 
Not yet, no. Thoughts on what our loadouts should be?
The ones the QMs provided initially when we asked them seemed reasonably sufficient to me.


@Radvic very cool! I think one major flaw with your analysis though is that you've conflated "cost to civilians" with "pay to ninja" here:



Everything we've seen of the ninja villages indicates that though they may have the income structure of TaskRabbit, they have the culture, goals, and most importantly the spending structure of the U.S. Navy.

I'd guess that the VAST majority of the high-paying A and B rank missions are military and not civilian, and so there should therefore be many more per year than the 30 A ranks/150 B ranks that you've identified the civilians as directly requesting. This means that the Village should pay out much less per mission than the figures you've indicated.
This is true. I neglected to account for overhead on missions, I also didn't include missions that aren't paid for by civilians. That said, we know that missions sometimes aren't paid - see Jiraiya's "update spy network" mission. Depending on the ratios QMs want there to be between military missions and civilian missions, that could pretty simply be accounted for by just applying a flat percentage cut off each of the missions. No idea what fraction it would be.

Leaf has it's own farmland:
Right. So, I guess the QMs would just need to use their own numbers for "how many skilled laborers are there in Fire" if they wanted to use the stuff I wrote, and then also potentially take off a fraction of the resulting pay for military based mission overhead.
 
That said, I'll note that the difference in the United States between those values is something like 5%, which isn't a huge difference (despite large military spending). Likewise, Mexico is around a 10% difference (despite standards of living).

The US is not feudal. Mexico is not feudal. If US average income were at poverty level, there is easily a 5x difference between average income and PPP!

Really, the best reference class would be North Korea. Average income in North Korea is 0 and GDP per capita is positive, so North Koreans produce infinity times more value than they earn!

(Actually, the thing that's really bothering me is that we're not counting ninja contribution to the economy which really should be enormous, even if they are spending the majority of their time doing other things. It really doesn't make sense that civilians ban ninja from using their comparative advantage, because that impoverishes civilians. Not only do civilians have comparative advantages in areas that wizardry doesn't help much (eg farming, food prep), they have absolute advantages in every skilled task other than killing (roof-fixing was mentioned). And civilians are supposed to demand that ninja don't water their crops during a drought? Civilians demand they not be allowed to pay ninja a pittance to construct things with earth jutsu—and, because price must equal marginal cost, it would be a pittance—while they do things that ninja can't wizard quite so well? Like, civilians have to buy stuff, and if they let ninja wizard it up, the market is flooded and the price drops to rounding error. Meanwhile, ninja also need to buy stuff, but the civilians who are no longer working in the crop-watering or wall-building business don't drop the supply of civilian labor nearly as much (because comparative advantage), netting civilians income. In the end, we get a higher supply of everything at a lower price. Notice this all happens completely voluntarily. But my time has opportunity cost and right anything is better than debating economics on the internet, the only thing more dismal than the science.

Of course, the real analysis is that every country that doesn't take advantage of comparative advantage gets roflstomped by the countries that do, so that surplus gets sacrificed to the war machine.)
 
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