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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Erwing said:
Why didn't we walk away from the watchtower deal, then? That was nowhere near the value of that sealing tech. We were traded one basic ninjutsu and a summon contract with a cook, where with Jiraiya we were given a lot of money.
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Remember that the plan included things like "Keiko can simply give away the seal for goodwill with her summon clan, but we'd prefer if she got something in return for it." People were viewing this as a way to get goodwill with the pangolins, not a way to get value from the watchtowers directly.

Regardless, I'll take the pangolin and the jutsu over the money any day. That summon is a hefty force multiplier, and we didn't actually get that much from the watchtowers. We got the equivalent of $10k from Leaf, and I really can't see that covering the summon's wages, nor paying for many jutsu.
 
@faflec wouldnt the same concerns exist on skywalkers leaking from leaf? Is there anything we can do to mitigate these risk with whom ever we trade with
 
Veedrac said:
@faflec You're treating a military state like a bunch of irresponsible yokels. I think they know not to give away their overwhelming advantage.
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You're treating Skywalkers as though they're impossible to detect, despite knowing of an enemy Summoning clan that can already fly. There's a difference between "militarily competent" and "being able to disguise themselves doing the literal impossible".

And yes, they're going to use them. We've already seen them make plans for Skytowers.
Velorien said:
Panoptikon's tongue flicked in and out. "Clear lines of sight for miles... it's beautiful. We could take the condors' scouting advantage and stick it straight down their throats. By the Naraka Path, if you factor in comms, and get these things mass-produced, we could take the whole region!"
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Oneiros43 said:
@faflec wouldnt the same concerns exist on skywalkers leaking from leaf? Is there anything we can do to mitigate these risk with whom ever we trade with
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Yes, there would be. Which is why I want us to go to Leaf first, and the Pangolins after.

Leaf is where we live (i.e., on the Human Path); if we give the Pangolins Skywalkers they'll use them, they get discovered, the information transmits to the Human Path. ALL the countries with summoners (so, probably, all of them) find out, and plan accordingly. This means when we give Skywalkers to Leaf their value decreases. Which means our value (as Leaf citizens) decreases.

I do not want that.
 
faflec said:
As a statement of fact? No.

As heavily implied in a previous chapter? Yes.
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Well then we should at least ask the pangolins if they know who it is. Also could we just give the pangolins a few prototypes to start of with then immediately go into negotiations with leaf? That way they wouldn't have time to leak?
 
faflec said:
You're treating Skywalkers as though they're impossible to detect, despite knowing of an enemy Summoning clan that can already fly. There's a difference between "militarily competent" and "being able to disguise themselves doing the literal impossible".

And yes, they're going to use them. We've already seen them make plans for Skytowers.
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Of course they're going to use them, but that doesn't mean they'll have no patience or tact about it. Before they have these things mass-produced and developed well, the only things they'll even consider doing with them will be covert, elite missions, because everyone knowing about them hurts them even more than it does us. This is especially true if we've asked them to help negotiate with Leaf, since they're not dumb enough to mess things up in the first week of having them.

If anything, having a time limit makes Leaf more likely to bargain for them, so that they can organize joint operations with the pangolins rather than getting a hold of them after the pangolins have ramped up production and war has broken out and, for exactly the reasons you've mentioned.

As long as you model the pangolins as intelligent agents, these are points in favour of pangolin-first trading.
 
Also we could control the number of skywalkers they have since they can't make there own seals
 
Oneiros43 said:
Well then we should at least ask the pangolins if they know who it is. Also could we just give the pangolins a few prototypes to start of with then immediately go into negotiations with leaf? That way they wouldn't have time to leak?
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The Pangolins only have second-hand information from the Toads (which incidentally is where the information is coming from).

Yes, this is a possibility BUT:
  • Leaf will likely want to keep Skywalkers a secret for as long as possible (like the Skytowers) so they'll be angry that another group has access to them and has plans to use them ASAP.
  • My experiences in the thread tell me that after they do this they'll fuck around and make up reasons to NOT go to Leaf.
Veedrac said:
If anything, having a time limit makes Leaf more likely to bargain for them, so that they can organize joint operations with the pangolins rather than getting a hold of them after the pangolins have ramped up production and war has broken out and, for exactly the reasons you've mentioned.
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Having a time limit means Leaf gets angry because their advantage, which they'd want to use at the best possible moment, is now relegated to deciding "is this the best possible moment before our timer runs out"?

This is pressure they do not want.

This is pressure we do not need to give them.

Seriously, what is wrong with going to Leaf first, and then going to Pangolins?
 
faflec said:
The Pangolins only have second-hand information from the Toads (which incidentally is where the information is coming from).

Yes, this is a possibility BUT:
  • Leaf will likely want to keep Skywalkers a secret for as long as possible (like the Skytowers) so they'll be angry that another group has access to them and has plans to use them ASAP.
  • My experiences in the thread tell me that after they do this they'll fuck around and make up reasons to NOT go to Leaf.

Having a time limit means Leaf gets angry because their advantage, which they'd want to use at the best possible moment, is now relegated to deciding "is this the best possible moment before our timer runs out"?

This is pressure they do not want.

This is pressure we do not need to give them.

Seriously, what is wrong with going to Leaf first, and then going to Pangolins?
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Good points. I just feel like this is a safe way to gain more value when we negotiate with leaf. I think we should ask for a ton upfront from the pangolins. If they don't take the deal we are in the same position we are now. But giving them to leaf won't help us with pangolins
 
faflec said:
Seriously, what is wrong with going to Leaf first, and then going to Pangolins?
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Because we desperately need a guarantor when we deal with Leaf, who has every reason and every ability to screw us over, and because the pangolins will give us a better deal if we do it that way around. It's a win on both trades.
 
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Kiba said:
To the Pangolins, we are their one and only summoner.
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It didn't stop the Polemarch from trying to murderize Keiko the first time we met. It hasn't stopped them from negotiating us down deals when we offer them game-changing technology.

We're useful to them. Not irreplaceable.

And if you think about it, it's actually in their best interests to let us die and the summoning scroll delivered to Jiraiya's lap, so that he can pick a strong Jonin-level summoner who is fully mature, can do missions for the Pangolins, and has a support system that keeps them fucking alive.
Veedrac said:
Because we desperately need a guarantor when we deal with Leaf, who has every reason and every ability to screw us over, and because the pangolins will give us a better deal if we do it that way around. It's a win on both trades.
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And Jiraiya can't be one because...?

I mean, the guy's already proven he's willing to sacrifice a hell of a lot to keep us safe, since he bailed out our asses even though we fucked holyshit up in Konoha; not to mention the rewards we've gotten (summoning scroll), his bending of Konoha law to bring us in, and his already showing he won't straight-up kill us for advantage (Hidden Mountain's location).

Hell, us coming to Leaf and selling Skywalkers proves he was right in letting us live! He's going to be waving his fully erect penis in his rivals' faces about this.

Edit: Didn't see your edit, give me a second to respond to the second part.

Wait, why would the Pangolins give us a better deal if we go to them first?
 
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faflec said:
Having a time limit means Leaf gets angry because their advantage, which they'd want to use at the best possible moment, is now relegated to deciding "is this the best possible moment before our timer runs out"?

This is pressure they do not want.

This is pressure we do not need to give them.
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Assume Leaf is a rational agent. Then figure out what their logical set of behaviours will be in reaction to this.
  1. They will have a need to have influence over the pangolins.
    • This means they're forced to treat us well.
    • This means they're more likely to form an alliance with the pangolins.
  2. They will have a need to accept this deal sooner.
    • This means they have less opportunity to push the deal into unfavourable terms.
Where is the downside?
 
faflec said:
It didn't stop the Polemarch from trying to murderize Keiko the first time we met. It hasn't stopped them from negotiating us down deals when we offer them game-changing technology.
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The Polemarch was afraid of Keiko's power.

faflec said:
And if you think about it, it's actually in their best interests to let us die and the summoning scroll delivered to Jiraiya's lap, so that he can pick a strong Jonin-level summoner who is fully mature, can do missions for the Pangolins, and has a support system that keeps them fucking alive.
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The bosses expressed concern that Keiko doesn't have any clan backing to protect her.
 
faflec said:
And Jiraiya can't be one because...?

I mean, the guy's already proven he's willing to sacrifice a hell of a lot to keep us safe, since he bailed out our asses even though we fucked holyshit up in Konoha; not to mention the rewards we've gotten (summoning scroll), his bending of Konoha law to bring us in, and his already showing he won't straight-up kill us for advantage (Hidden Mountain's location).

Hell, us coming to Leaf and selling Skywalkers proves he was right in letting us live! He's going to be waving his fully erect penis in his rivals' faces about this.
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Jiraiya has explicitly stated that he will happily slaughter non-Leaf citizens to protect the Leaf. He is not a guarantor because he doesn't have a motive to protect us beyond just kind'a being a nice person. That's not nearly enough in this scenario.
 
faflec said:
Wait, why would the Pangolins give us a better deal if we go to them first?
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I need to sleep now so this is going to be quick, but the basic answer is that the pangolins are at a position of relative disadvantage (compared to Leaf and the toads), so they are likely to be willing to trade up to get to be part of leading negotiations with Leaf. It gives them power they otherwise wouldn't have. The reverse doesn't hold to the same extent.

In contrast, if we're Leaf citizens, any trade we do with the pangolins is going to be through proxy of Leaf. This harms our position, because it means Leaf controls what terms we can give and forces the pangolins to concede things to Leaf, which are costs that come off our profits.
 
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faflec said:
Hell, us coming to Leaf and selling Skywalkers proves he was right in letting us live! He's going to be waving his fully erect penis in his rivals' faces about this.
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Please do not put that image in my head, figuratively-correct though it may be.

On that note, though, yes: J-man is going to get to show his political enemies he made the right choice here.
 
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