This is almost perfectly the opposite of how I see it.
- Leaf are the ones who risk screwing us over, because once we offer the deal we can't back our or they'll at minimum mind-read us for the information, probably worse.
- The power imbalance is much worse with Leaf.
- The pangolins can't screw us over, because they rely on us to have any influence on the human path.
- The pangolins are invested in our long-term safety already, because as their summoner we are important to them.
- The pangolins want us to join a clan (they've commented as much) but don't want the clan to steal all our shit.
- The pangolins want tie-in to the toads and Leaf more than vice-versa.
- The deal gives the pangolins a chance to claim back some relative standing next to the toads, which are otherwise unimpeachable due to said tie-in.
- Leaf already has air superiority; their need for Skywalkers is merely a wish for excess.
- The pangolins are at an air disadvantage; their need for Skywalkers is particularly large.
We can offer firm deals to the pangolins and just walk away if they're not met. This hasn't been the case before; it would have been silly to do the same with watchtowers, for example. With Skywalkers, the pangolins effectively don't have a choice to say no unless we actually ask for more than the Skywalkers are worth, and given how much they're worth that's not particularly likely.
In contrast, Leaf doesn't need Skywalkers that badly, and if we try to walk away from a deal they wrestle us into (
you're the sealing slave,
you're the sealing slave servant!) we'll be fully aware that Leaf's most sensible course of action is to kill us.
Pangolins
first.