At maximum, that means the chakra for 36'000 - 48'000 potential activations, meaning all twenty thousand.

If we say that ninja are only spending a quarter of their chakra on activations instead of all of it, which is much more realistic, then that's still 9'000 - 12'000 active Night Lights we can expect around the swamp.

If a super-conservative estimate of 1% of those seals catastrophically fail, (it will be higher than this, most likely, because of combat conditions and failure chain reactions) then that's 90 - 120 seal failures. If we say that a more realistic number like 10% fail, then that's 900 - 1'200 failures.
On the other hand, it's in the exam-goers interests to keep the tokens in tact, so they may actively choose not to use AoE techniques.
 
See, the thing is, while this has the potential to be very, very bad...

...if we can get information to Jiraiya about it quietly, he'll have one HELL of a piece of blackmail to hold over Mist for the duration of the exams.
To me, this isn't the kind of thing that fails quietly; the earlier analogy to live nuclear rods wasn't inaccurate. We have IMO anywhere from 9,000 to 12,000 live uranium-235 nuclear rods in the Death Swamp; scoring incrementally more political points is irrelevant compared to recalling all 12000 live nuclear rods right the fuck now.
On the other hand, it's in the exam-goers interests to keep the tokens in tact, so they may actively choose not to use AoE techniques.
Hiding in the Mist might set off sealpocalypse. Chakra beasts might set off the sealpocalypse. There's just way too much risk and too many actors, not all sentient and with the frame of Chunin Exams, who might set it off.
 
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On the other hand, it's in the exam-goers interests to keep the tokens in tact, so they may actively choose not to use AoE techniques.
On the third tentacle, if exam-goers can't take their opponents' tokens, or if their tokens are about to be taken, they will likely opt to try to destroy them in order to deny their opponents those tokens.
 
argh. I feel like it's entirely possible that Hazou's lack of expertise in seal failure may well bite him here -- it's possible the seals are engineered not to seal-failure when destroyed while active, and he's simply not equipped with the knowledge to determine that.

In that case, Hazou would look very foolish to quit out. On the other hand, utilizing more subtle methods to check with J would be acceptable in that context...
 
[X] Action Plan: Keep Your Head

This sealing revelation presents a serious risk which we should address, but is worth abandoning everything to stop the exams - everybody knew the exams were dangerous, it just got more real for us. Fortunately, our previous maneuvering has put us in a position of authority over five ninja. Let's use them to mitigate the danger as best we can within the context of the exam, and modify our plans based on new information. Remember that there are many powerful ninja nearby ready to deal with any incursions from the Out in case something goes terribly wrong, making an upper bound on the potential damage. This plan modifies our defenses and interactions with others to mitigate sealing failure risks, and includes four concrete actions to prevent sealing catastrophes (pangolin message to Jiraiya, proctor warning, storage seal bartering for message to Jiraiya or sealmasters, and genin warning expeditions into the Death Swamp).

Part 1) Immediate Action
  • Our fortress presents on of the biggest risks of seal activation due to the explosives we use to defend it. Replace the explosives with Banshee seals (that Hazou can make), make Banshee slayers for everyone in the fortress. Set them to 130 dB.
    • Switching from explosive to sound defenses should reduce the chance of triggering a sealing failure
  • Keep watches - let the Leaf nin sleep in shifts if they need it
  • Make an obvious entrance to our fortress (if not already done) and light it with a single Party Trick Seal
    • We want a clear entrance to the fortress, and want a place for customers to come, demonstrate that we're sealmasters (Party Trick Seal), but hide the extent of the number of PTS we can make (hence only one). If asked, describe the Party Trick Seal as a modified Night Light Seal
  • Use explosives occasionally to signal where we are, double frequency during the night (now 2 / hour).
  • Have Hazou make ~300 night light seals to store in the Summon Realm (un-activated) for us to pull out at the end.
    • This is a safe place to store them, especially when inactive, and guarantees us a fair number of points for us and our allies at the end.
    • Establish a pay mechanic before we have people leave:
      • Individual pay = (num_seals_at_end * num_hours_worked) /(total_hours_labor)
        • e.g. If we get 3 additional ninja who help out for 24 hours and wind up with 300 seal points, then the six initial ninja get paid 300 * 48 / 360 = 40 seals each and the three later ninja get paid 300 * 24 / 360 = 20 seals each
  • Continue production of Party Trick Seals
Part 2) Night-time Allied Action
  • Have allied Leaf teams assist in defending the fortress, keeping at least a full ninja squad on watch throughout the night
  • Have whatever pangolin has highest awareness (aside from our infiltrator pangolin) keep watch
  • Send out infiltrator pangolin to find other Leaf teams. Identifying features include: Leaf hitai-ate, Byakugan (will be able to see you approach underground), chakra bugs, dogs, etc.
    • Use henge to provide the Pangolin with a description of our allies faces.
    • Remind that permanent damage is off limits (though we've got good medics) - suggest breaking all their fingers and toes
  • Have Keiko send a message to Jiraiya via Pangolin messengers warning about the seals (he should get this message within a day or two if he keeps his old check-in schedule)
Part 3) The New Deal (whenever someone comes by with non-hostile intent)
  • When our customers come, explain the situation to them - warn about the dangers of sealing breaches, mention the lost village of sealmasters (implying a sealing failure caused it) talk about some of Kagome's more believable sealing failure stories. Suggest they take care to avoid damaging any night-light seals they see in combat, as sealing breaches unpredictable and can even cause damage to those who cause them from afar and (in our experience) target those who trigger them (e.g. the lose of Oliwhail).
  • Provide the same deal as before: 2 lit Night Leight seals for 1 Party Trick seal, or 3 burned-out Night Light seals for 1 Party Trick seal.
  • If the group is interested in the sealing damages and wants to stop it, suggest that if any seal master aside from the one who made these examines the night light seals, the danger should be clear, offer a sum of storage seals in payment to deliver a message quickly to Jiraiya or another seal master.
    • If anyone accepts, provide 10% payment up front and 90% payment afterwards. Have them hand over a night-light seal blank to Leaf-nin and explain that the seals Mist is using for the event are ticking time-bombs in the Swamp. Use Hazou's name, and say that any sealmaster should be able to see the danger.
Part 4) Second Day - Missions
  • Send out an expedition to interact with a proctor
    • Party comp: Don't send Hazou (need seal production) or Keiko (need Pangolin coordination/summoning capabilities). Include Akane, as she'll have witnessed sealing failures (and is a very robust combatant). Ideally include one deception-specced ninja
    • Methods: Use Henge to disguise themselves as Rock-nin. When they find a proctor, describe a sealing failure they witnessed (pick one of the sealing failures Team Uplift has seen if we haven't yet seen a night-light seal fail) and explain that there's a dude making seals in a fortress who swears that the night light seals are dangerous and can cause additional failures. Ask for more seals, explaining that they can trade them for non-nuclear options from the sealmaster in the fortress.
  • Continue production and defense of the fortress, summon an additional Pangolin to account for loses in personal for missions.
  • Send out an expedition to gather allies and warn genin (either after proctor interacting party finishes, or with additional personel provided by Leaf teams arriving)
    • Party comp: Don't send Hazou (need seal production) or Keiko (need Pangolin coordination/summoning capabilities). Include at least one combat oriented Pangolin. Keep at least 3 ninja + 1 Pangolin at the fortress
    • Methods:
      • If previous Pangolin reconnaissance found any Leaf teams, go to them, warn of the danger and offer them a piece of our fortress pie.
      • If previous reconnaissance has failed to locate Leaf teams, have our Combat Pangolin travel in an obvious attention gathering fashion with the rest of the team trailing, hopefully attracting Leaf teams (who know Leaf has the Pangolin summoner), or ambushes (which we should be able to defeat).
      • When approached by others, first warn about the danger of the night lights, then offer the trade deal of our fortress. If ambushed, simply defeat them, then warn them of the night lights (don't mention the fortress)
  • If Team Asuma arrives and is willing to help, have them start by going to a proctor and explaining about sealing failures they've seen (since they're social specced), consider faking a sealing failure with an explosive seal and party trick seal in a night light seal casing.
  • If we have excess personnel hanging around the fort, send additional warning parties, advertising the dangers of the night lights and trade (and baiting out ambushes to eliminate ninja teams and take their stuff).
  • Keep at least Hazou, Keiko, and two other combat capable bodies around to defend the fortress at all times.
 
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argh. I feel like it's entirely possible that Hazou's lack of expertise in seal failure may well bite him here -- it's possible the seals are engineered not to seal-failure when destroyed while active, and he's simply not equipped with the knowledge to determine that.

I think people here are overreacting, assuming that much incopetence on Mist part is probably not a good idea. Now sabotage that would make more sense, maybe someone wants to stop a Mist-Leaf alliance?

But I think we should actually destroy a few of those, if those cause any kind of failure then we have only to deal with 1-3 sealing failures and have proof to shut down the event. If we don't we might get either laughed out of Mist or end up in post(-post?)-apocalyptic MfD
 
I really REALLY think we're going to ruin ourselves by overreacting. Firstly the idea that destroying these seals while theyre active being more dangerous isn't even something Hazou thinks:
"Hazō, what happens if one of those seals gets destroyed?" Noburi asked. "Like, say, dropped in water or hit with a fireball."

"That could be bad," Hazō said. "It would definitely cause the chakra envelope to fail, and it would do it in an uncontrolled way. I have no idea what would happen, or if it would be more or less likely to go wrong. I haven't spent asmuch time on seal failures as Kagome-senseihas; I've mostly been focused on construction and methods of operation. Understanding failure modes involves a lot of theory that I haven't learned yet."
Basically every seal we've seen to date has been used in combat risking destruction whilst activated. They weren't constructed as shittily as this one, but again: Hazou doesn't believe that this seal is any more likely to cthulu when destroyed.

Secondly, if these thing are used as night lights, they'd be being used presumably nightly for a long period of time for a particular child. There will have been TONS of usages by now (way more than the 10 usages/yr proposed in an earlier post) and even though this seal is unorthodox, it doesn't sound like it's got a track record of cthuluing.

Thirdly, we KNOW that Hazou comes from an exceedingly paranoid sealing tradition. It's a shame that the only role models we have are crazily paranoid and unemulatingly competent (Kagome/Jiraiya respectively) but that doesn't change that we do know which way Hazou's bias leans.

For all these reasons, while it would narratively make way more sense for this plot hook to be important, simulationally we really shouldn't be too worried.
 
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@huhYeahGoodPoint

In regard to your plan, I'm not sure it's a good idea to be throwing around explosives in the town proper. On the other hand, I don't really have a better idea for quickly drawing the attention of ANBU...

[X] Action Plan: CODE Z! CODE Z!
[X] Action Plan: We prevented Armageddon and all we got was this stupid Chunin vest
 
[-] Action Plan: Keep Your Head

I will have critique for this when I am properly awake but this is closest to what I'd like as it stands.
 
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[X] Action Plan: Keep Your Head

@Radvic Would like to point out that bluffing the proctor (who is ANBU IIRC) probably isn't the best idea. As in, you are sending out people with sub-10 Deception against these guys.
 
[X] Action Plan: Keep Your Head

@Radvic Would like to point out that bluffing the proctor (who is ANBU IIRC) probably isn't the best idea. As in, you are sending out people with sub-10 Deception against these guys.
Also, I'd kind of prefer Panashe be sent out of the Death Swamp to contact a Leaf nin directly. Doesn't matter if it's not Jiraiya, just get SOMEONE.
 
[X] Action Plan: Keep Your Head

@Radvic Would like to point out that bluffing the proctor (who is ANBU IIRC) probably isn't the best idea. As in, you are sending out people with sub-10 Deception against these guys.
I mean, the two primary outcomes here are

1) The proctor believes a non-Leaf nin has encountered a problem and there's a sealingmaster who is concerned
or
2) the proctor believes a Leaf nin is so concerned about the night light seals that they sent out a mission to warn the proctors

Even if they see through the illusion, it will help our purposes. In fact, it's probably more likely they will do what we want (get an additional sealmaster to investigate the seals) if our friends fail their deception check.
 
I mean, the two primary outcomes here are

1) The proctor believes a non-Leaf nin has encountered a problem and there's a sealingmaster who is concerned
or
2) the proctor believes a Leaf nin is so concerned about the night light seals that they sent out a mission to warn the proctors

Even if they see through the illusion, it will help our purposes. In fact, it's probably more likely they will do what we want (get an additional sealmaster to investigate the seals) if our friends fail their deception check.
Or 3) The proctor believes a Leaf-nin is paranoid and enlisted his teammates/allies to lie to a proctor regarding the dangers of a seal being used in the Exams, and therefore ignores the warning.
 
But how would a Leaf-nin benefit from this?
The better question is how the proctor would benefit from believing that.

The answer's easy: It means they don't have to do jack shit to help us. :p

e: In spite of the phrasing, it's not a joke. People will take just about any excuse to be lazy. I'd know.
 
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Regarding the sentiment that we're overreacting because Mist wouldn't screw up this badly, I'll drop some TvTropes-sourced pithiness here:
Erwin Knoll said:
Everything you read in [quests] is absolutely true, except for that rare story of which you happen to have first-hand knowledge.

This exam was thrown together in a few months by a nation with a chronic shortage of senior manpower and a lot of other very important and high-priority things on its plate. For all we know this is just mistake #502 that they have or will make throughout the course of the exams. Maybe that sparkly green ink for the OPSEC-slips is made with radium. Maybe they invited an Akatsuke member because he disguised himself as a Kage. We don't know and haven't noticed any such mistakes because we're not in a position to.

It could just be as simple as that it so happens that the Night Light seal is a mistake that Hazou is uniquely suited to spot, and so it's come to our attention.
 
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The better question is how the proctor would benefit from believing that.

The answer's easy: It means they don't have to do jack shit to help us. :p

e: In spite of the phrasing, it's not a joke. People will take just about any excuse to be lazy. I'd know.
Is there a different way of interacting with proctors you suggest to get the word out, or are you saying we shouldn't pursue this avenue to avoid seal-pocalypse because it might not be successful?
 
Honestly...you'd think that a sealing failure so obvious Hazou could figure it out just by activating it would eventually be noticed by one of the various clan sealmasters (e.g., the Kurosawa).
 
Is there a different way of interacting with proctors you suggest to get the word out, or are you saying we shouldn't pursue this avenue to avoid seal-pocalypse because it might not be successful?
Neither; I was just pointing out that there was an alternative explanation for their ignoring the warnings.
 
You know what would be a crazy-ass fucking plan?

Having a bunch of teams deliberately make the equivalent of seal failures* (by making giant explosions and random blood/gore craziness) and then running to the proctors telling them a seal failure just happened because of the nightlight seals.

Meanwhile we run off, DQ ourselves, and say that the seals Mist gave us are seal failures waiting to happen.

Cue shitstorm.

*We are not actually making seal failures. We are faking them.
 
Honestly...you'd think that a sealing failure so obvious Hazou could figure it out just by activating it would eventually be noticed by one of the various clan sealmasters (e.g., the Kurosawa).

Well, Hazou's theory is that the lone "retarded student" who made them has been using the cases to keep the design secret so they could more easily sell them. And presumably no one cared sufficiently about a super-basic "emit light" seal to bother prying it open.
 
Well, Hazou's theory is that the lone "retarded student" who made them has been using the cases to keep the design secret so they could more easily sell them. And presumably no one cared sufficiently about a super-basic "emit light" seal to bother prying it open.
Except Hazou figured out that it was a seal failure just by activating it. He didn't pry it apart, or take a look at it. He just activated it.
 
Neither; I was just pointing out that there was an alternative explanation for their ignoring the warnings.
Fair.
@Radvic Would like to point out that bluffing the proctor (who is ANBU IIRC) probably isn't the best idea. As in, you are sending out people with sub-10 Deception against these guys.
Do you have a suggestion on how to have a proctor interaction which is more likely to lead to a positive result?
 
Except Hazou figured out that it was a seal failure just by activating it. He didn't pry it apart, or take a look at it. He just activated it.
I imagine Nobles would just pay a genin for a D rank to charge their night light seals when they want one or something, and non-sealmasters wouldn't know that dumping a bunch of chakra into a seal was such a terrible idea.

And if you were a sealmaster worth your salt would you bother buying a basic night light seal? I wouldn't be surprised if very few other people that actually knew anything about sealing ever have even looked at this thing.
 
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