Guys, I'm sure you're all over reacting. There's no reason to do anything drastic here. In fact, we should be happy! We can probably account for over half of the total points if we have Hazou immediately switch to making the night light seals!
[X] Poll: Pretend Radvic isn't here for the duration of potential-apocalypse crises
 
Hi, long time lurker. Great writing on both GM's and player's part, thank you everyone.

Also you've made me get my statistics course notes from their dusty resting place and make an account to share their revelations with you on this specific sealing failure scenario. Although now that I think on it, maybe this math has already been done elsewhere previously? In which case disregard this message except for the gratefulness I feel to you all.

Onto the math: Let's call the probability of one of these seals failing in a spectacular fashion when used "poootsfiasf" or "p" for short. Then the probability "P" of there being no failures when there have been "N" activations is:

P=(1-p)^N

So let's use this to try and make a guess for the failure probability. Assuming that the seals that have been used since their creation with no ill effects, and that they have been used about 10 times per year since their creation 20 years ago (numbers that I am pulling from thin air), this gives us 200 uses. Now, how lucky do we think Hidden Mist has been all these years? Let's say the cumulative probability that none of these 200 seals has malfunctioned is 99% (again, thin air, could choose anything between 0.00...01 and 99.99...%). So we plug this into the equation and have:

0.99=(1-p)^200
p=1-200nth_root_of(0.99)=0.00005 or thereabouts.

Further assuming that the quality of the seals used on the exam is the same as those that have been used in the past (because sure working nonstop is great for not making mistakes and who's counting assumptions anymore anyway):

P=(1-0.00005)^4000=0.8

So a 20% chance that there is trouble.

A nice formula for the relationship is also:

P1^N2=P2^N1
P1=P2^(N1/N2)

Which relates the probabilities of nothing happening on two different accounts (P1, P2), and the number of times fate was tempted in each case (N1, N2), assuming the poootsfiasf factor stays the same.

Here are some test values. Remember, P1 is the probability that everything will be fine *heh*.

N1 N2 P2 P1
4000 200 0.99 0.82
3000 200 0.99 0.86
4000 400 0.99 0.90
4000 200 0.9 0.12
4000 100 0.99 0.67
4000 200 0.999 0.98

As we can see, the biggest factor is how close to sealing failure Mist has been in the past

Best Regards.
Welcome, and thank you for your analysis! I hope you'll stick around and help us out with future analyses! :D
 
@eaglejarl, @OliWhail , @Velorien : we need to know if Hazou thinks there's some predictable damage (e.g. a cut in some specific location on the seal, immersion in water, etc..) that will defuse the seal with no risk to the fabric of reality.
Hazō is completely out of his depth on this one. He has no idea.

What skill level are the proctors? They're mostly chuunin, right?

We could take them out. Go out as a strike team against the proctors instead, with faces muddied up and headbands removed.
Ren said that they were ANBU.


Or more like how long before a seal failure happens that is bad enough to stop the exam/destroy local reality?
She is even more out of her depth than Hazō.

@eaglejarl

Can we research a Party Trick that gives off the same colour/effects of light as the Night Light in under an hour, in Hazou's opinion?
Probably not, no. The night light seals shift color fairly randomly, although typically slowly.

Also, is it all of the leaf teams that are now with us?

EDIT: If Leaf has a morse code equiv, we can set off explosives in a pattern to encode a message to Jiraiya.
No, just Akane's team.


Team Asuma and Kurenai, possibly more; @eaglejarl please confirm whether they agreed to come or not,
They did, but haven't arrived yet.

Does this world have video cameras like canon or any other way to broadcast the exam?
No video cameras, and no way to broadcast that you're aware of.
 
Last edited:
A little confused why the freak-out is so great -> haven't these seals been used for ages with no ill-effect (considering both our teammates recognized them from the outset)?

Are we also positive that Hazou's analysis of the seals is correct? Like what would happen if there was a knowledge roll to understand the seal (which is actually fine all along) and Hazou failed the knowledge roll?

Idk, seems kinda fishy. Not to mention OPSEC - Hazou just screamed about his and Kagome's relative skill levels in front of a proctor, when he could have hand signalled or used telepathy...
 
So this is what I would consider our minimum winning strategy and safety net plan. Now if we can come up with a way to both let Jiraiya know about this and remain in the exam, we should do that since that is even more impressive.

Is there any reason we can't send just one person from our team to see Jiraiya? They/we obviously wouldn't be able to come back, but it would be odd if you could disqualify a whole team by kidnapping one member and throwing them out of the swamp.
 
Last edited:
Okay so Hazō and company have no idea how dangerous these seals are. But Noburi and Kei where both familiar with then and had never seen or heard of negative affects
Yep. No one who used radium makeup had ever seen or heard of negative effects of it, either, and would think you ridiculous for implying it could cause cancer, but here we are.
 
Is there any reason we can't send just one person from our team to see Jiraiya? They/we obviously wouldn't be able to come back, but it would be odd if you could disqualify a whole team by kidnapping one member and throwing them out of the swamp.

We don't actually know, I was just using canon knowledge of the similar Forest of Death which doesn't mean it has to be the same. Good catch.

@eaglejarl: Can we forfeit with one member of the team without disqualifying the team? Are the points counted for each person individually or the whole team?
 
Yep. No one who used radium makeup had ever seen or heard of negative effects of it, either, and would think you ridiculous for implying it could cause cancer, but here we are.

Cause cancer 30 years later is something hard to notice. Summon blade monsters or turn the air to acid is pretty easy to see
 
Find a Proctor and promise them 20 storage scrolls if they take a single one of the seals from their own pouch, and deliver it to Jiraya. No message. (He can do Skywalkers over breakfast, he can see the problem here at a glance.)

I like this idea, though I think it requires some modification.

1. We'd probably need to make a written contract or something. Also would have to show we have the seals. Maybe also a down payment of half, with the other half to be delivered.
2. We could ask that he send a message to the Mizukage, expressing our concerns, instead of or in addition to a message to Jiraiya. We're Leaf-nin, so us sending a message to the Mizukage would not likely be seen as us attempting to cheat. Notifying Ren will probably have her check with one of the village's sealmasters who isn't the retard who made this seal, or with Jiraiya. If we did it that way, she could save face and she might consider that she owes us.
 
[] Proto-Plan: Code Octarine

Goals:

  • Alert the Leaf delegation that the situation has changed.
  • Try to pass round 2 if it isn't shut down.
Methods:

  1. Using explosives/banshees, broadcast the following message or its nearest equivalent in Leaf morse code: "Catastrophic danger imminent. Mist is using faulty seals." If we don't have that or anything like it, send up the "Emergency! Help!" signal, because it would be weird if that one doesn't exist.
  2. In the mean time, research Party Tricks that give off a glow identical to a Night Light. Use these seals for any trades. EDIT: drat
  3. If a leaf ANBU, or Kakashi/Gai comes to our signal, explain the situation, and have them deliver a Night Light to Jiraiya for verification.
 
Last edited:
Cause cancer 30 years later is something hard to notice. Summon blade monsters or turn the air to acid is pretty easy to see
Yeah, but seals used as nightlights for children and encased in wood are not regularly subject to combat conditions.

Updating QuINOA with unanswered questions.

e: Sleeping soon, though, so someone else may wish to.
 
Last edited:
Yep. No one who used radium makeup had ever seen or heard of negative effects of it, either, and would think you ridiculous for implying it could cause cancer, but here we are.

More to the point, Hazou made a correct prediction about Night Lights: that they're rarely used.

When your theory makes predictions about things you didn't know in advance, and those predictions turn out correct, that's a sign that you should pay attention to it.
 
We could ask that he send a message to the Mizukage, expressing our concerns, instead of or in addition to a message to Jiraiya. We're Leaf-nin, so us sending a message to the Mizukage would not likely be seen as us attempting to cheat. Notifying Ren will probably have her check with one of the village's sealmasters who isn't the retard who made this seal, or with Jiraiya. If we did it that way, she could save face and she might consider that she owes us.

It gives leaf a little less leverage, but it's probably a much easier sell. Good Point.

Had a weird inkling and decided to check the math; this only works out to ~4000 seals if Night Light seals take 5 minutes to make, not 1. I guess Keiko didn't get the memo? How would she update her predictions if we told her?

The QM's have asked us not to poke too closely into the seal creation times, as it's mostly hand-waved. Also, this person is a total noob, it probably takes them longer.
 
Also a note that there are 20 ANBU proctors in the area who can help if any seal failures happen
 
Watchers not withstanding, it seems like there's significant odds of existential risk here. Hazo may be wrong, and the seals may be safe, but I think we have to take this threat seriously anyway.

[X] Action Plan: GTFO
  • Confirm that these are the only type of seal being handed out.
    • Find a proctor, approach them in henge, get more seals
  • Let the other genin know that the seals are a death-trap.
  • Encourage other leaf-genin to drop out with us, if we happen across them.
  • Find a proctor, making a show-of-force with full pangolian honour guard. Tell them
    • We're dropping out of this stage of the competition.
    • These seals are a death-trap, and very bad things could happen if they're not dealt with.
    • That we need to talk to the mizukage immediately or there may be severe loss of life.
    • Have them escort us directly to the mizukage.
  • Leave the pangolian guards in-play if possible, to warn others of the danger.
  • Explain the situation to Ren.
  • Offer to bulk-produce party-trick seals, in exchange for a pass, so that mist doesn't have to lose face.
    • Stress familiar loyalty, and that even though the Kurasawa have had issues in the past, we're still family.
 
Last edited:
You are correct that she was not aware of that. I was wondering if anyone would catch it. :>

Right then.

So we can actually expect twenty thousand seals, with the new estimate?

To clarify, this is twenty thousand seals which each have a small possibility of major seal catastrophe, which they seem to have so far avoided due only to being used incredibly rarely, when rich people want to show off in front of the Jones'es?

Y'know, just to make sure the characters and I are on the same page...
 
Last edited:
Right then.

So we can actually expect twenty thousand seals, with the new estimate?

To clarify, this is twenty thousand seals which each have a small possibility of major seal catastrophe, which they seem to have so far avoided due only to being used incredibly rarely, when rich people want to show off in front of the Jones'es?

Y'know, just to make sure the characters and I are on the same page...

Well, we can expect a maximum of around 20,000 seals in play, but it's likely that there aren't that many. We can probably presume that Keiko's estimate on the amount is a probable minimum.

As far as catastrophe goes, I believe these should only potentially cause issues once chakra is pushed into them. It's likely that not all of the seals will be activated, but the time of biggest danger will be when we're closer to the last 24 hours, which is when groups will start collecting larger amounts of seals as well as presumably attacking one another to get eachother's seals.
 
I only just read the past two updates. My immediate reaction was that this situation was planned by Ren.

Hana grimaced. "To the best of my understanding? My dear sister was the least contentious among the various candidates put forward. All the clans ended up compromising and supporting her because they wanted a face they could put forward when Leaf inevitably came to collect on Yagura's bills. She's got the diplomatic experience, her last big mission secured the Hot Springs alliance which did a lot for our economy, and all the really dangerous people know that they can assassinate her if it becomes necessary. Or at least, they think they know they can do so. For now she's got them all working as hard as they can against one another, still thinking she's a pawn with no agency, while she scrambles to stabilize her position behind the scenes. Part of that scrambling is that she wants to leverage the blood bond between her clan and the Hokage's."

She laughed ominously. "Of course, a blood bond doesn't mean anything if the member who shares it is exiled. So, she wants to bring me back into the fold, a Kurosawa in good standing once again, at long last. The elders would be pissed, of course, but she thinks she can get me far enough out of their hair that they won't make too much of a fuss, by sending me out as a 'special envoy' to Leaf."

Let's assume she approaches a clan, that's been problematic, discussing preparations for the chunin exams. She knows their sealmasters are dead and they only have an incompetent apprentice around now. Said clan doesn't want to lose face and admit this. So they say they can produce the required seals. Now when she goes to leverage the blood bond she can make a spectacle of it. I wouldn't be surprised if there were ninja were waiting to intercept anything we tried to send to Jiraiya.

Do yall think such a situation is plausible?
 
I only just read the past two updates. My immediate reaction was that this situation was planned by Ren.



Let's assume she approaches a clan, that's been problematic, discussing preparations for the chunin exams. She knows their sealmasters are dead and they only have an incompetent apprentice around now. Said clan doesn't want to lose face and admit this. So they say they can produce the required seals. Now when she goes to leverage the blood bond she can make a spectacle of it. I wouldn't be surprised if there were ninja were waiting to intercept anything we tried to send to Jiraiya.

Do yall think such a situation is plausible?
I doubt it. Ren isn't stupid or insane (or stupid and insane) enough to risk a Lovecraftian incursion for... some undefined benefit? No benefit whatsoever? Minor benefit to the Kurosawa clan in exchange for major harm to Mist as a whole?
 
I only just read the past two updates. My immediate reaction was that this situation was planned by Ren.



Let's assume she approaches a clan, that's been problematic, discussing preparations for the chunin exams. She knows their sealmasters are dead and they only have an incompetent apprentice around now. Said clan doesn't want to lose face and admit this. So they say they can produce the required seals. Now when she goes to leverage the blood bond she can make a spectacle of it. I wouldn't be surprised if there were ninja were waiting to intercept anything we tried to send to Jiraiya.

Do yall think such a situation is plausible?
That the Mizukage deliberately made an exam with impeding seal failures with possibly lethal results to make a spectacle?

Personally say no, I err towards stupidity over malicious action.

Though then again...
 
You are correct that she was not aware of that. I was wondering if anyone would catch it. :>
Oh shit, I think I know the Akatsuki plot here; they snipe that facility, they SEALING FAILURE the entire Elemental Nations power structure.

[X] Action Plan: CODE Z! CODE Z!
  • Find another proctor. ASAP.
    • As in, get everyone to run right the hell out of the base, blow it to cinders, and run at top ninja cruising speed.
  • While running, tell Keiko her worst case estimates are severely underestimating, because the process of drawing this blank is about five times faster than her estimate.
  • Get another night light seal. Check if it's just as volatile.
    • If it is, execute the rest of the plan.
    • If it is not, stop, hand in the seal, and report the ANBU proctor who handed the dangerous seal to you. Execute the previous plan as written at the new location.
  • If the seals are volatile, leave the area immediately. Don't stop for anything.
    • Throw explosives into the air in our path so that the other Leaf Genin know we're moving out of the combat zone.
    • Throw explosives in a fan pattern ahead of us to severely discourage attackers - sure, it's predictable and burns through explosives like a bonfire, but on the other hand, who the hell wants to get in front of the crazy group throwing explosives like party favors?
  • Continue throwing explosives into the air when we head into town; we need to get attention fast.
    • When ANBU inevitably approach, tell them we need to see Jiraiya, priority yesterday
    • If they don't get the point, tell them that there are twenty thousand potential sealing failures in the next two days, where the lucky outcome is for them to explode in the user's hand. Unlucky is summoning a hellbeast invasion.
  • Show Jiraiya the night light seal. Tell him there may be up to twenty thousand, or whatever number Keiko mentally revises the count to, of these seals in circulation
Let's assume she approaches a clan, that's been problematic, discussing preparations for the chunin exams. She knows their sealmasters are dead and they only have an incompetent apprentice around now. Said clan doesn't want to lose face and admit this. So they say they can produce the required seals. Now when she goes to leverage the blood bond she can make a spectacle of it. I wouldn't be surprised if there were ninja were waiting to intercept anything we tried to send to Jiraiya.
Not at all. Kurosawa Ren knows that failure here will reflect on Mist, and by extension Ren far more than any blowback to that caln.
 
Last edited:
Do yall think such a situation is plausible?

No.

This would be an insane risk to take. Let me put this in perspective:

A single "negligible chakra" infusion failure can summon Blade People. Hazou thinks using more chakra could make things worse, and these use 5-10CP. If a seal gets caught in another seal's failure, that could set off its own failure, causing a chain reaction so long as more seals are available to fail.

Now imagine twenty thousand high-chakra seals all failing in an expanding sphere of unreality that consumes an unknown-sized area of land.

Would you, the pragmatic leader of Mist, take such a risk for a small-ish political power play?

[X] Action Plan: CODE Z! CODE Z!
 
Last edited:
Back
Top